Predicting Decisions of AI Agents from Limited Interaction through Text-Tabular Modeling
Abstract
AI agents can predict counterpart decisions in negotiation games by combining tabular features with LLM-based text representations and hidden states from a frozen observer model, outperforming direct prompting methods.
AI agents negotiate and transact in natural language with unfamiliar counterparts: a buyer bot facing an unknown seller, or a procurement assistant negotiating with a supplier. In such interactions, the counterpart's LLM, prompts, control logic, and rule-based fallbacks are hidden, while each decision can have monetary consequences. We ask whether an agent can predict an unfamiliar counterpart's next decision from a few interactions. To avoid real-world logging confounds, we study this problem in controlled bargaining and negotiation games, formulating it as target-adaptive text-tabular prediction: each decision point is a table row combining structured game state, offer history, and dialogue, while K previous games of the same target agent, i.e., the counterpart being modeled, are provided in the prompt as labeled adaptation examples. Our model is built on a tabular foundation model that represents rows using game-state features and LLM-based text representations, and adds LLM-as-Observer as an additional representation: a small frozen LLM reads the decision-time state and dialogue; its answer is discarded, and its hidden state becomes a decision-oriented feature, making the LLM an encoder rather than a direct few-shot predictor. Training on 13 frontier-LLM agents and testing on 91 held-out scaffolded agents, the full model outperforms direct LLM-as-Predictor prompting and game+text features baselines. Within this tabular model, Observer features contribute beyond the other feature schemes: at K=16, they improve response-prediction AUC by about 4 points across both tasks and reduce bargaining offer-prediction error by 14%. These results show that formulating counterpart prediction as a target-adaptive text-tabular task enables effective adaptation, and that hidden LLM representations expose decision-relevant signals that direct prompting does not surface.
Community
AI agents will increasingly need to interact with unfamiliar AI counterparts in settings like negotiation and bargaining. In this paper, we ask: can we predict the next decision of a black-box AI agent after seeing only a few prior interactions?
We frame this as a target-adaptive text-tabular prediction problem: each decision point combines structured game-state features, offer history, and dialogue, while a few previous games of the same target agent provide adaptation examples.
A key idea is LLM-as-Observer: instead of asking an LLM to directly predict the next action, we let a small frozen LLM read the interaction and use its hidden states as decision-oriented features for a tabular predictor. This substantially outperforms direct prompting of much larger LLMs — including, in some cases, models from the same family as those used to construct the black-box agents themselves. This suggests that LLM representations contain useful strategic signals that are not always surfaced in generated answers.
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