Daily Papers

Reliable multi-agent trajectory prediction is crucial for the safe planning and control of autonomous systems. Compared with single-agent cases, the major challenge in simultaneously processing multiple agents lies in modeling complex social interactions caused by various driving intentions and road conditions. Previous methods typically leverage graph-based message propagation or attention mechanism to encapsulate such interactions in the format of marginal probabilistic distributions. However, it is inherently sub-optimal. In this paper, we propose IPCC-TP, a novel relevance-aware module based on Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient to improve multi-agent interaction modeling. IPCC-TP learns pairwise joint Gaussian Distributions through the tightly-coupled estimation of the means and covariances according to interactive incremental movements. Our module can be conveniently embedded into existing multi-agent prediction methods to extend original motion distribution decoders. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that IPCC-TP improves the performance of baselines by a large margin.

Spectrograms are pivotal in time-frequency signal analysis, widely used in audio processing and computational neuroscience. Chirp-like patterns in electroencephalogram (EEG) spectrograms (marked by linear or exponential frequency sweep) are key biomarkers for seizure dynamics, but automated tools for their detection, localization, and feature extraction are lacking. This study bridges this gap by fine-tuning a Vision Transformer (ViT) model on synthetic spectrograms, augmented with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to boost adaptability. We generated 100000 synthetic spectrograms with chirp parameters, creating the first large-scale benchmark for chirp localization. These spectrograms mimic neural chirps using linear or exponential frequency sweep, Gaussian noise, and smoothing. A ViT model, adapted for regression, predicted chirp parameters. LoRA fine-tuned the attention layers, enabling efficient updates to the pre-trained backbone. Training used MSE loss and the AdamW optimizer, with a learning rate scheduler and early stopping to curb overfitting. Only three features were targeted: Chirp Start Time (Onset Time), Chirp Start Frequency (Onset Frequency), and Chirp End Frequency (Offset Frequency). Performance was evaluated via Pearson correlation between predicted and actual labels. Results showed strong alignment: 0.9841 correlation for chirp start time, with stable inference times (137 to 140s) and minimal bias in error distributions. This approach offers a tool for chirp analysis in EEG time-frequency representation, filling a critical methodological void.

Recently, using a powerful proprietary Large Language Model (LLM) (e.g., GPT-4) as an evaluator for long-form responses has become the de facto standard. However, for practitioners with large-scale evaluation tasks and custom criteria in consideration (e.g., child-readability), using proprietary LLMs as an evaluator is unreliable due to the closed-source nature, uncontrolled versioning, and prohibitive costs. In this work, we propose Prometheus, a fully open-source LLM that is on par with GPT-4's evaluation capabilities when the appropriate reference materials (reference answer, score rubric) are accompanied. We first construct the Feedback Collection, a new dataset that consists of 1K fine-grained score rubrics, 20K instructions, and 100K responses and language feedback generated by GPT-4. Using the Feedback Collection, we train Prometheus, a 13B evaluator LLM that can assess any given long-form text based on customized score rubric provided by the user. Experimental results show that Prometheus scores a Pearson correlation of 0.897 with human evaluators when evaluating with 45 customized score rubrics, which is on par with GPT-4 (0.882), and greatly outperforms ChatGPT (0.392). Furthermore, measuring correlation with GPT-4 with 1222 customized score rubrics across four benchmarks (MT Bench, Vicuna Bench, Feedback Bench, Flask Eval) shows similar trends, bolstering Prometheus's capability as an evaluator LLM. Lastly, Prometheus achieves the highest accuracy on two human preference benchmarks (HHH Alignment & MT Bench Human Judgment) compared to open-sourced reward models explicitly trained on human preference datasets, highlighting its potential as an universal reward model. We open-source our code, dataset, and model at https://github.com/kaistAI/Prometheus.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged to tackle the challenges of Visual Question Answering (VQA), sparking a new research focus on conducting objective evaluations of these models. Existing evaluation methods face limitations due to the significant human workload required to design Q&A pairs for visual images, which inherently restricts the scale and scope of evaluations. Although automated MLLM-as-judge approaches attempt to reduce the human workload through automatic evaluations, they often introduce biases. To address these problems, we propose an Unsupervised Peer review MLLM Evaluation framework. It utilizes only image data, allowing models to automatically generate questions and conduct peer review assessments of answers from other models, effectively alleviating the reliance on human workload. Additionally, we introduce the vision-language scoring system to mitigate the bias issues, which focuses on three aspects: (i) response correctness; (ii) visual understanding and reasoning; and (iii) image-text correlation. Experimental results demonstrate that UPME achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.944 with human evaluations on the MMstar dataset and 0.814 on the ScienceQA dataset, indicating that our framework closely aligns with human-designed benchmarks and inherent human preferences.

Assessing long-form responses generated by Vision-Language Models (VLMs) is challenging. It not only requires checking whether the VLM follows the given instruction but also verifying whether the text output is properly grounded on the given image. Inspired by the recent approach of evaluating LMs with LMs, in this work, we propose to evaluate VLMs with VLMs. For this purpose, we present a new feedback dataset called the Perception Collection, encompassing 15K customized score rubrics that users might care about during assessment. Using the Perception Collection, we train Prometheus-Vision, the first open-source VLM evaluator model that can understand the user-defined score criteria during evaluation. Prometheus-Vision shows the highest Pearson correlation with human evaluators and GPT-4V among open-source models, showing its effectiveness for transparent and accessible evaluation of VLMs. We open-source our code, dataset, and model at https://github.com/kaistAI/prometheus-vision

Scaling laws in language modeling traditionally quantify training loss as a function of dataset size and model parameters, providing compute-optimal estimates but often neglecting the impact of data quality on model generalization. In this paper, we extend the conventional understanding of scaling law by offering a microscopic view of data quality within the original formulation -- effective training tokens -- which we posit to be a critical determinant of performance for parameter-constrained language models. Specifically, we formulate the proposed term of effective training tokens to be a combination of two readily-computed indicators of text: (i) text diversity and (ii) syntheticity as measured by a teacher model. We pretrained over 200 models of 25M to 1.5B parameters on a diverse set of sampled, synthetic data, and estimated the constants that relate text quality, model size, training tokens, and eight reasoning task accuracy scores. We demonstrated the estimated constants yield +0.83 Pearson correlation with true accuracies, and analyzed it in scenarios involving widely-used data techniques such as data sampling and synthesis which aim to improve data quality.

Comprehensive and constructive evaluation protocols play an important role in the development of sophisticated text-to-video (T2V) generation models. Existing evaluation protocols primarily focus on temporal consistency and content continuity, yet largely ignore the dynamics of video content. Dynamics are an essential dimension for measuring the visual vividness and the honesty of video content to text prompts. In this study, we propose an effective evaluation protocol, termed DEVIL, which centers on the dynamics dimension to evaluate T2V models. For this purpose, we establish a new benchmark comprising text prompts that fully reflect multiple dynamics grades, and define a set of dynamics scores corresponding to various temporal granularities to comprehensively evaluate the dynamics of each generated video. Based on the new benchmark and the dynamics scores, we assess T2V models with the design of three metrics: dynamics range, dynamics controllability, and dynamics-based quality. Experiments show that DEVIL achieves a Pearson correlation exceeding 90% with human ratings, demonstrating its potential to advance T2V generation models. Code is available at https://github.com/MingXiangL/DEVIL.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

This paper describes the performance of the team cs60075_team2 at SemEval 2021 Task 1 - Lexical Complexity Prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to fine-tune transformer-based language models pre-trained on several text corpora, some being general (E.g., Wikipedia, BooksCorpus), some being the corpora from which the CompLex Dataset was extracted, and others being from other specific domains such as Finance, Law, etc. We perform ablation studies on selecting the transformer models and how their individual complexity scores are aggregated to get the resulting complexity scores. Our method achieves a best Pearson Correlation of 0.784 in sub-task 1 (single word) and 0.836 in sub-task 2 (multiple word expressions).

In this paper, we introduce fastHDMI, a Python package designed for efficient variable screening in high-dimensional datasets, particularly neuroimaging data. This work pioneers the application of three mutual information estimation methods for neuroimaging variable selection, a novel approach implemented via fastHDMI. These advancements enhance our ability to analyze the complex structures of neuroimaging datasets, providing improved tools for variable selection in high-dimensional spaces. Using the preprocessed ABIDE dataset, we evaluate the performance of these methods through extensive simulations. The tests cover a range of conditions, including linear and nonlinear associations, as well as continuous and binary outcomes. Our results highlight the superiority of the FFTKDE-based mutual information estimation for feature screening in continuous nonlinear outcomes, while binning-based methods outperform others for binary outcomes with nonlinear probability preimages. For linear simulations, both Pearson correlation and FFTKDE-based methods show comparable performance for continuous outcomes, while Pearson excels in binary outcomes with linear probability preimages. A comprehensive case study using the ABIDE dataset further demonstrates fastHDMI's practical utility, showcasing the predictive power of models built from variables selected using our screening techniques. This research affirms the computational efficiency and methodological strength of fastHDMI, significantly enriching the toolkit available for neuroimaging analysis.

Visual instruction tuning refines pre-trained Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to enhance their real-world task performance. However, the rapid expansion of visual instruction datasets introduces significant data redundancy, leading to excessive computational costs. Existing data selection methods predominantly rely on proxy models or loss-based metrics, both of which impose substantial computational overheads due to the necessity of model inference and backpropagation. To address this challenge, we propose PRISM, a novel training-free approach for efficient multimodal data selection. Unlike existing methods, PRISM eliminates the reliance on proxy models, warm-up pretraining, and gradient-based optimization. Instead, it leverages Pearson correlation analysis to quantify the intrinsic visual encoding properties of MLLMs, computing a task-specific correlation score to identify high-value instances. This not only enbles data-efficient selection,but maintains the original performance. Empirical evaluations across multiple MLLMs demonstrate that PRISM reduces the overall time required for visual instruction tuning and data selection to just 30% of conventional methods, while surpassing fully fine-tuned models across eight multimodal and three language understanding benchmarks, achieving a 101.7% relative improvement in final performance.

Scoliosis, a prevalent condition characterized by abnormal spinal curvature leading to deformity, requires precise assessment methods for effective diagnosis and management. The Cobb angle is a widely used scoliosis quantification method that measures the degree of curvature between the tilted vertebrae. Yet, manual measuring of Cobb angles is time-consuming and labor-intensive, fraught with significant interobserver and intraobserver variability. To address these challenges and the lack of interpretability found in certain existing automated methods, we have created fully automated software that not only precisely measures the Cobb angle but also provides clear visualizations of these measurements. This software integrates deep neural network-based spine region detection and segmentation, spine centerline identification, pinpointing the most significantly tilted vertebrae, and direct visualization of Cobb angles on the original images. Upon comparison with the assessments of 7 expert readers, our algorithm exhibited a mean deviation in Cobb angle measurements of 4.17 degrees, notably surpassing the manual approach's average intra-reader discrepancy of 5.16 degrees. The algorithm also achieved intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) exceeding 0.96 and Pearson correlation coefficients above 0.944, reflecting robust agreement with expert assessments and superior measurement reliability. Through the comprehensive reader study and statistical analysis, we believe this algorithm not only ensures a higher consensus with expert readers but also enhances interpretability and reproducibility during assessments. It holds significant promise for clinical application, potentially aiding physicians in more accurate scoliosis assessment and diagnosis, thereby improving patient care.

We introduce WildBench, an automated evaluation framework designed to benchmark large language models (LLMs) using challenging, real-world user queries. WildBench consists of 1,024 tasks carefully selected from over one million human-chatbot conversation logs. For automated evaluation with WildBench, we have developed two metrics, WB-Reward and WB-Score, which are computable using advanced LLMs such as GPT-4-turbo. WildBench evaluation uses task-specific checklists to evaluate model outputs systematically and provides structured explanations that justify the scores and comparisons, resulting in more reliable and interpretable automatic judgments. WB-Reward employs fine-grained pairwise comparisons between model responses, generating five potential outcomes: much better, slightly better, slightly worse, much worse, or a tie. Unlike previous evaluations that employed a single baseline model, we selected three baseline models at varying performance levels to ensure a comprehensive pairwise evaluation. Additionally, we propose a simple method to mitigate length bias, by converting outcomes of ``slightly better/worse'' to ``tie'' if the winner response exceeds the loser one by more than K characters. WB-Score evaluates the quality of model outputs individually, making it a fast and cost-efficient evaluation metric. WildBench results demonstrate a strong correlation with the human-voted Elo ratings from Chatbot Arena on hard tasks. Specifically, WB-Reward achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.98 with top-ranking models. Additionally, WB-Score reaches 0.95, surpassing both ArenaHard's 0.91 and AlpacaEval2.0's 0.89 for length-controlled win rates, as well as the 0.87 for regular win rates.

The predictive analysis of match outcomes and player momentum in professional tennis has long been a subject of scholarly debate. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to game prediction by combining a multi-level fuzzy evaluation model with a CV-GRNN model. We first identify critical statistical indicators via Principal Component Analysis and then develop a two-tier fuzzy model based on the Wimbledon data. In addition, the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficient indicate that the momentum indicators, such as Player Win Streak and Score Difference, have a strong correlation among them, revealing insightful trends among players transitioning between losing and winning streaks. Subsequently, we refine the CV-GRNN model by incorporating 15 statistically significant indicators, resulting in an increase in accuracy to 86.64% and a decrease in MSE by 49.21%. This consequently strengthens the methodological framework for predicting tennis match outcomes, emphasizing its practical utility and potential for adaptation in various athletic contexts.

Transformer-based image restoration methods in adverse weather have achieved significant progress. Most of them use self-attention along the channel dimension or within spatially fixed-range blocks to reduce computational load. However, such a compromise results in limitations in capturing long-range spatial features. Inspired by the observation that the weather-induced degradation factors mainly cause similar occlusion and brightness, in this work, we propose an efficient Histogram Transformer (Histoformer) for restoring images affected by adverse weather. It is powered by a mechanism dubbed histogram self-attention, which sorts and segments spatial features into intensity-based bins. Self-attention is then applied across bins or within each bin to selectively focus on spatial features of dynamic range and process similar degraded pixels of the long range together. To boost histogram self-attention, we present a dynamic-range convolution enabling conventional convolution to conduct operation over similar pixels rather than neighbor pixels. We also observe that the common pixel-wise losses neglect linear association and correlation between output and ground-truth. Thus, we propose to leverage the Pearson correlation coefficient as a loss function to enforce the recovered pixels following the identical order as ground-truth. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy and superiority of our proposed method. We have released the codes in Github.

Hindustani music is a performance-driven oral tradition that exhibits the rendition of rich melodic patterns. In this paper, we focus on generative modeling of singers' vocal melodies extracted from audio recordings, as the voice is musically prominent within the tradition. Prior generative work in Hindustani music models melodies as coarse discrete symbols which fails to capture the rich expressive melodic intricacies of singing. Thus, we propose to use a finely quantized pitch contour, as an intermediate representation for hierarchical audio modeling. We propose GaMaDHaNi, a modular two-level hierarchy, consisting of a generative model on pitch contours, and a pitch contour to audio synthesis model. We compare our approach to non-hierarchical audio models and hierarchical models that use a self-supervised intermediate representation, through a listening test and qualitative analysis. We also evaluate audio model's ability to faithfully represent the pitch contour input using Pearson correlation coefficient. By using pitch contours as an intermediate representation, we show that our model may be better equipped to listen and respond to musicians in a human-AI collaborative setting by highlighting two potential interaction use cases (1) primed generation, and (2) coarse pitch conditioning.

This paper introduces the UCFE: User-Centric Financial Expertise benchmark, an innovative framework designed to evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to handle complex real-world financial tasks. UCFE benchmark adopts a hybrid approach that combines human expert evaluations with dynamic, task-specific interactions to simulate the complexities of evolving financial scenarios. Firstly, we conducted a user study involving 804 participants, collecting their feedback on financial tasks. Secondly, based on this feedback, we created our dataset that encompasses a wide range of user intents and interactions. This dataset serves as the foundation for benchmarking 12 LLM services using the LLM-as-Judge methodology. Our results show a significant alignment between benchmark scores and human preferences, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.78, confirming the effectiveness of the UCFE dataset and our evaluation approach. UCFE benchmark not only reveals the potential of LLMs in the financial sector but also provides a robust framework for assessing their performance and user satisfaction.The benchmark dataset and evaluation code are available.

The task of abductive natural language inference (nli), to decide which hypothesis is the more likely explanation for a set of observations, is a particularly difficult type of NLI. Instead of just determining a causal relationship, it requires common sense to also evaluate how reasonable an explanation is. All recent competitive systems build on top of contextualized representations and make use of transformer architectures for learning an NLI model. When somebody is faced with a particular NLI task, they need to select the best model that is available. This is a time-consuming and resource-intense endeavour. To solve this practical problem, we propose a simple method for predicting the performance without actually fine-tuning the model. We do this by testing how well the pre-trained models perform on the nli task when just comparing sentence embeddings with cosine similarity to what the performance that is achieved when training a classifier on top of these embeddings. We show that the accuracy of the cosine similarity approach correlates strongly with the accuracy of the classification approach with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Since the similarity computation is orders of magnitude faster to compute on a given dataset (less than a minute vs. hours), our method can lead to significant time savings in the process of model selection.

Recent advancements in audio-visual generative modeling have been propelled by progress in deep learning and the availability of data-rich benchmarks. However, the growth is not attributed solely to models and benchmarks. Universally accepted evaluation metrics also play an important role in advancing the field. While there are many metrics available to evaluate audio and visual content separately, there is a lack of metrics that offer a quantitative and interpretable measure of audio-visual synchronization for videos "in the wild". To address this gap, we first created a large scale human annotated dataset (100+ hrs) representing nine types of synchronization errors in audio-visual content and how human perceive them. We then developed a PEAVS (Perceptual Evaluation of Audio-Visual Synchrony) score, a novel automatic metric with a 5-point scale that evaluates the quality of audio-visual synchronization. We validate PEAVS using a newly generated dataset, achieving a Pearson correlation of 0.79 at the set level and 0.54 at the clip level when compared to human labels. In our experiments, we observe a relative gain 50% over a natural extension of Fr\'echet based metrics for Audio-Visual synchrony, confirming PEAVS efficacy in objectively modeling subjective perceptions of audio-visual synchronization for videos "in the wild".

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable multilingual capabilities, however, how to evaluate cross-lingual alignment remains underexplored. Existing alignment benchmarks primarily focus on sentence embeddings, but prior research has shown that neural models tend to induce a non-smooth representation space, which impact of semantic alignment evaluation on low-resource languages. Inspired by neuroscientific findings that similar information activates overlapping neuronal regions, we propose a novel Neuron State-Based Cross-Lingual Alignment (NeuronXA) to assess the cross-lingual a lignment capabilities of LLMs, which offers a more semantically grounded approach to assess cross-lingual alignment. We evaluate NeuronXA on several prominent multilingual LLMs (LLaMA, Qwen, Mistral, GLM, and OLMo) across two transfer tasks and three multilingual benchmarks. The results demonstrate that with only 100 parallel sentence pairs, NeuronXA achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.9556 with downstream tasks performance and 0.8514 with transferability. These findings demonstrate NeuronXA's effectiveness in assessing both cross-lingual alignment and transferability, even with a small dataset. This highlights its potential to advance cross-lingual alignment research and to improve the semantic understanding of multilingual LLMs.

With the rapid development and widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs), rigorous evaluation has become particularly crucial. This research adopts a novel perspective, focusing on evaluating the core computational reasoning ability of LLMs, defined as the capacity of model to accurately understand rules, and execute logically computing operations. This capability assesses the reliability of LLMs as precise executors, and is critical to advanced tasks such as complex code generation and multi-step problem-solving. We propose an evaluation framework based on Universal Turing Machine (UTM) simulation. This framework requires LLMs to strictly follow instructions and track dynamic states, such as tape content and read/write head position, during multi-step computations. To enable standardized evaluation, we developed TMBench, a benchmark for systematically studying the computational reasoning capabilities of LLMs. TMBench provides several key advantages, including knowledge-agnostic evaluation, adjustable difficulty, foundational coverage through Turing machine encoding, and unlimited capacity for instance generation, ensuring scalability as models continue to evolve. We find that model performance on TMBench correlates strongly with performance on other recognized reasoning benchmarks (Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.73), clearly demonstrating that computational reasoning is a significant dimension for measuring the deep capabilities of LLMs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/HaitaoWuTJU/Turing-Machine-Bench.

Quality Estimation (QE) is estimating the quality of model output when the ground truth reference is not available. Looking at model uncertainty from its own output probabilities is the most trivial and low-effort way to estimate the output quality. However, for generative model, output probabilities might not be the best quality estimator. At an output step, there can be multiple correct options, making the probability distribution spread out more. Thus, lower token probability does not necessarily mean lower output quality. In other words, the model can be considered underconfident. In this paper, we propose a QE approach called Dominant Mass Probability (DMP}, that boosts the model confidence in cases where there are multiple viable output options. We show that, with no increase in complexity, DMP is notably better than sequence probability when estimating the quality of different models (Whisper, Llama, etc.) on different tasks (translation, summarization, etc.). Compared to sequence probability, DMP achieves on average +0.208 improvement in Pearson correlation to ground-truth quality.

With growing capabilities of large language models, prompting them has become the dominant way to access them. This has motivated the development of strategies for automatically selecting effective language prompts. In this paper, we introduce prompt flatness, a new metric to quantify the expected utility of a language prompt. This metric is inspired by flatness regularization in statistical learning that quantifies the robustness of the model towards its parameter perturbations. We provide theoretical foundations for this metric and its relationship with other prompt selection metrics, providing a comprehensive understanding of existing methods. Empirically, we show that combining prompt flatness with existing metrics improves both performance and sample efficiency. Our metric outperforms the previous prompt selection metrics with an average increase of 5% in accuracy and 10% in Pearson correlation across 6 classification benchmarks.

A recommender system, also known as a recommendation system, is a type of information filtering system that attempts to forecast a user's rating or preference for an item. This article designs and implements a complete movie recommendation system prototype based on the Genre, Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Cosine Similarity, KNN-Based, Content-Based Filtering using TFIDF and SVD, Collaborative Filtering using TFIDF and SVD, Surprise Library based recommendation system technology. Apart from that in this paper, we present a novel idea that applies machine learning techniques to construct a cluster for the movie based on genres and then observes the inertia value number of clusters were defined. The constraints of the approaches discussed in this work have been described, as well as how one strategy overcomes the disadvantages of another. The whole work has been done on the dataset Movie Lens present at the group lens website which contains 100836 ratings and 3683 tag applications across 9742 movies. These data were created by 610 users between March 29, 1996, and September 24, 2018.

Significant progress has been made in automatic text evaluation with the introduction of large language models (LLMs) as evaluators. However, current sample-wise evaluation paradigm suffers from the following issues: (1) Sensitive to prompt design; (2) Poor resistance to noise; (3) Inferior ensemble performance with static reference. Inspired by the fact that humans treat both criterion definition and inter sample comparison as references for evaluation, we propose BatchEval, a paradigm that conducts batch-wise evaluation iteratively to alleviate the above problems. We explore variants under this paradigm and confirm the optimal settings are two stage procedure with heterogeneous batch composition strategy and decimal scoring format. Comprehensive experiments across 3 LLMs on 4 text evaluation tasks demonstrate that BatchEval outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 10.5% on Pearson correlations with only 64% API cost on average. Further analyses have been conducted to verify the robustness, generalization, and working mechanism of BatchEval.

This research explores the application of large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets for Product Desirability Toolkit (PDT) testing, a key component in evaluating user sentiment and product experience. Utilizing gpt-4o-mini, a cost-effective alternative to larger commercial LLMs, three methods, Word+Review, Review+Word, and Supply-Word, were each used to synthesize 1000 product reviews. The generated datasets were assessed for sentiment alignment, textual diversity, and data generation cost. Results demonstrated high sentiment alignment across all methods, with Pearson correlations ranging from 0.93 to 0.97. Supply-Word exhibited the highest diversity and coverage of PDT terms, although with increased generation costs. Despite minor biases toward positive sentiments, in situations with limited test data, LLM-generated synthetic data offers significant advantages, including scalability, cost savings, and flexibility in dataset production.

Generative AI has made remarkable strides to revolutionize fields such as image and video generation. These advancements are driven by innovative algorithms, architecture, and data. However, the rapid proliferation of generative models has highlighted a critical gap: the absence of trustworthy evaluation metrics. Current automatic assessments such as FID, CLIP, FVD, etc often fail to capture the nuanced quality and user satisfaction associated with generative outputs. This paper proposes an open platform GenAI-Arena to evaluate different image and video generative models, where users can actively participate in evaluating these models. By leveraging collective user feedback and votes, GenAI-Arena aims to provide a more democratic and accurate measure of model performance. It covers three arenas for text-to-image generation, text-to-video generation, and image editing respectively. Currently, we cover a total of 27 open-source generative models. GenAI-Arena has been operating for four months, amassing over 6000 votes from the community. We describe our platform, analyze the data, and explain the statistical methods for ranking the models. To further promote the research in building model-based evaluation metrics, we release a cleaned version of our preference data for the three tasks, namely GenAI-Bench. We prompt the existing multi-modal models like Gemini, GPT-4o to mimic human voting. We compute the correlation between model voting with human voting to understand their judging abilities. Our results show existing multimodal models are still lagging in assessing the generated visual content, even the best model GPT-4o only achieves a Pearson correlation of 0.22 in the quality subscore, and behaves like random guessing in others.

English-centric large language models (LLMs) often show strong multilingual capabilities. However, the multilingual performance of these models remains unclear and is not thoroughly evaluated for many languages. Most benchmarks for multilinguality focus on classic NLP tasks, or cover a minimal number of languages. We introduce MEXA, a method for assessing the multilingual capabilities of pre-trained English-centric LLMs using parallel sentences, which are available for more languages than existing downstream tasks. MEXA leverages the fact that English-centric LLMs use English as a kind of pivot language in their intermediate layers. It computes the alignment between English and non-English languages using parallel sentences to evaluate the transfer of language understanding from English to other languages. This alignment can be used to estimate model performance in other languages. We conduct studies using various parallel datasets (FLORES-200 and Bible), models (Llama family, Gemma family, Mistral, and OLMo), and established downstream tasks (Belebele, m-MMLU, and m-ARC). We explore different methods to compute embeddings in decoder-only models. Our results show that MEXA, in its default settings, achieves a statistically significant average Pearson correlation of 0.90 with three established downstream tasks across nine models and two parallel datasets. This suggests that MEXA is a reliable method for estimating the multilingual capabilities of English-centric LLMs, providing a clearer understanding of their multilingual potential and the inner workings of LLMs. Leaderboard: https://huggingface.co/spaces/cis-lmu/Mexa, Code: https://github.com/cisnlp/Mexa.

With the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs), it is crucial to have benchmarks which can evaluate the ability of LLMs on different domains. One common use of LLMs is performing tasks on scientific topics, such as writing algorithms, querying databases or giving mathematical proofs. Inspired by the way university students are evaluated on such tasks, in this paper, we propose SciEx - a benchmark consisting of university computer science exam questions, to evaluate LLMs ability on solving scientific tasks. SciEx is (1) multilingual, containing both English and German exams, and (2) multi-modal, containing questions that involve images, and (3) contains various types of freeform questions with different difficulty levels, due to the nature of university exams. We evaluate the performance of various state-of-the-art LLMs on our new benchmark. Since SciEx questions are freeform, it is not straightforward to evaluate LLM performance. Therefore, we provide human expert grading of the LLM outputs on SciEx. We show that the free-form exams in SciEx remain challenging for the current LLMs, where the best LLM only achieves 59.4\% exam grade on average. We also provide detailed comparisons between LLM performance and student performance on SciEx. To enable future evaluation of new LLMs, we propose using LLM-as-a-judge to grade the LLM answers on SciEx. Our experiments show that, although they do not perform perfectly on solving the exams, LLMs are decent as graders, achieving 0.948 Pearson correlation with expert grading.

This paper presents OLinear, a linear-based multivariate time series forecasting model that operates in an orthogonally transformed domain. Recent forecasting models typically adopt the temporal forecast (TF) paradigm, which directly encode and decode time series in the time domain. However, the entangled step-wise dependencies in series data can hinder the performance of TF. To address this, some forecasters conduct encoding and decoding in the transformed domain using fixed, dataset-independent bases (e.g., sine and cosine signals in the Fourier transform). In contrast, we utilize OrthoTrans, a data-adaptive transformation based on an orthogonal matrix that diagonalizes the series' temporal Pearson correlation matrix. This approach enables more effective encoding and decoding in the decorrelated feature domain and can serve as a plug-in module to enhance existing forecasters. To enhance the representation learning for multivariate time series, we introduce a customized linear layer, NormLin, which employs a normalized weight matrix to capture multivariate dependencies. Empirically, the NormLin module shows a surprising performance advantage over multi-head self-attention, while requiring nearly half the FLOPs. Extensive experiments on 24 benchmarks and 140 forecasting tasks demonstrate that OLinear consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Notably, as a plug-in replacement for self-attention, the NormLin module consistently enhances Transformer-based forecasters. The code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/OLinear

One of the most challenging problems facing NLP today is evaluation. Some of the most pressing issues pertain to benchmark saturation, data contamination, and diversity in the quality of test examples. To address these concerns, we propose Selection Methodology for Accurate, Reduced, and Targeted (SMART) filtering, a novel approach to select a high-quality subset of examples from existing benchmark datasets by systematically removing less informative and less challenging examples. Our approach applies three filtering criteria, removing (i) easy examples, (ii) data-contaminated examples, and (iii) examples that are similar to each other based on distance in an embedding space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SMART on three multiple choice QA datasets, where our methodology increases efficiency by reducing dataset size by 48\% on average, while increasing Pearson correlation with rankings from ChatBot Arena, a more open-ended human evaluation setting. Our method enables us to be more efficient, whether using SMART to make new benchmarks more challenging or to revitalize older datasets, while still preserving the relative model rankings.

The lack of labeled second language (L2) speech data is a major challenge in designing mispronunciation detection models. We introduce SpeechBlender - a fine-grained data augmentation pipeline for generating mispronunciation errors to overcome such data scarcity. The SpeechBlender utilizes varieties of masks to target different regions of phonetic units, and use the mixing factors to linearly interpolate raw speech signals while augmenting pronunciation. The masks facilitate smooth blending of the signals, generating more effective samples than the `Cut/Paste' method. Our proposed technique achieves state-of-the-art results, with Speechocean762, on ASR dependent mispronunciation detection models at phoneme level, with a 2.0% gain in Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) compared to the previous state-of-the-art [1]. Additionally, we demonstrate a 5.0% improvement at the phoneme level compared to our baseline. We also observed a 4.6% increase in F1-score with Arabic AraVoiceL2 testset.

While machine translation evaluation has been studied primarily for high-resource languages, there has been a recent interest in evaluation for low-resource languages due to the increasing availability of data and models. In this paper, we focus on a zero-shot evaluation setting focusing on low-resource Indian languages, namely Assamese, Kannada, Maithili, and Punjabi. We collect sufficient Multi-Dimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) and Direct Assessment (DA) annotations to create test sets and meta-evaluate a plethora of automatic evaluation metrics. We observe that even for learned metrics, which are known to exhibit zero-shot performance, the Kendall Tau and Pearson correlations with human annotations are only as high as 0.32 and 0.45. Synthetic data approaches show mixed results and overall do not help close the gap by much for these languages. This indicates that there is still a long way to go for low-resource evaluation.

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world in autonomous systems and cyber-physical systems. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Different from most traditional fusion models that incorporate all modalities identically in neural networks, our model designates a prime modality and regards the remaining modalities as detectors in the information pathway, serving to distill the flow of information. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of multimodal representation learning. Experimental evaluations on the MUStARD, CMU-MOSI, and CMU-MOSEI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks. Remarkably, on the CMU-MOSI dataset, ITHP surpasses human-level performance in the multimodal sentiment binary classification task across all evaluation metrics (i.e., Binary Accuracy, F1 Score, Mean Absolute Error, and Pearson Correlation).

The LLM-as-judge paradigm is increasingly being adopted for automated evaluation of model outputs. While LLM judges have shown promise on constrained evaluation tasks, closed source LLMs display critical shortcomings when deployed in real world applications due to challenges of fine grained metrics and explainability, while task specific evaluation models lack cross-domain generalization. We introduce GLIDER, a powerful 3B evaluator LLM that can score any text input and associated context on arbitrary user defined criteria. GLIDER shows higher Pearson's correlation than GPT-4o on FLASK and greatly outperforms prior evaluation models, achieving comparable performance to LLMs 17x its size. GLIDER supports fine-grained scoring, multilingual reasoning, span highlighting and was trained on 685 domains and 183 criteria. Extensive qualitative analysis shows that GLIDER scores are highly correlated with human judgments, with 91.3% human agreement. We have open-sourced GLIDER to facilitate future research.

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

Personalized summarization models cater to individuals' subjective understanding of saliency, as represented by their reading history and current topics of attention. Existing personalized text summarizers are primarily evaluated based on accuracy measures such as BLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR. However, a recent study argued that accuracy measures are inadequate for evaluating the degree of personalization of these models and proposed EGISES, the first metric to evaluate personalized text summaries. It was suggested that accuracy is a separate aspect and should be evaluated standalone. In this paper, we challenge the necessity of an accuracy leaderboard, suggesting that relying on accuracy-based aggregated results might lead to misleading conclusions. To support this, we delve deeper into EGISES, demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that it measures the degree of responsiveness, a necessary but not sufficient condition for degree-of-personalization. We subsequently propose PerSEval, a novel measure that satisfies the required sufficiency condition. Based on the benchmarking of ten SOTA summarization models on the PENS dataset, we empirically establish that -- (i) PerSEval is reliable w.r.t human-judgment correlation (Pearson's r = 0.73; Spearman's rho = 0.62; Kendall's tau = 0.42), (ii) PerSEval has high rank-stability, (iii) PerSEval as a rank-measure is not entailed by EGISES-based ranking, and (iv) PerSEval can be a standalone rank-measure without the need of any aggregated ranking.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Standard automatic metrics, e.g. BLEU, are not reliable for document-level MT evaluation. They can neither distinguish document-level improvements in translation quality from sentence-level ones, nor identify the discourse phenomena that cause context-agnostic translations. This paper introduces a novel automatic metric BlonDe to widen the scope of automatic MT evaluation from sentence to document level. BlonDe takes discourse coherence into consideration by categorizing discourse-related spans and calculating the similarity-based F1 measure of categorized spans. We conduct extensive comparisons on a newly constructed dataset BWB. The experimental results show that BlonDe possesses better selectivity and interpretability at the document-level, and is more sensitive to document-level nuances. In a large-scale human study, BlonDe also achieves significantly higher Pearson's r correlation with human judgments compared to previous metrics.

This work presents a novel framework for training Arabic nested embedding models through Matryoshka Embedding Learning, leveraging multilingual, Arabic-specific, and English-based models, to highlight the power of nested embeddings models in various Arabic NLP downstream tasks. Our innovative contribution includes the translation of various sentence similarity datasets into Arabic, enabling a comprehensive evaluation framework to compare these models across different dimensions. We trained several nested embedding models on the Arabic Natural Language Inference triplet dataset and assessed their performance using multiple evaluation metrics, including Pearson and Spearman correlations for cosine similarity, Manhattan distance, Euclidean distance, and dot product similarity. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the Matryoshka embedding models, particularly in capturing semantic nuances unique to the Arabic language. Results demonstrated that Arabic Matryoshka embedding models have superior performance in capturing semantic nuances unique to the Arabic language, significantly outperforming traditional models by up to 20-25\% across various similarity metrics. These results underscore the effectiveness of language-specific training and highlight the potential of Matryoshka models in enhancing semantic textual similarity tasks for Arabic NLP.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

Efficiently quantifying renal structures can provide distinct spatial context and facilitate biomarker discovery for kidney morphology. However, the development and evaluation of the transformer model to segment the renal cortex, medulla, and collecting system remains challenging due to data inefficiency. Inspired by the hierarchical structures in vision transformer, we propose a novel method using a 3D block aggregation transformer for segmenting kidney components on contrast-enhanced CT scans. We construct the first cohort of renal substructures segmentation dataset with 116 subjects under institutional review board (IRB) approval. Our method yields the state-of-the-art performance (Dice of 0.8467) against the baseline approach of 0.8308 with the data-efficient design. The Pearson R achieves 0.9891 between the proposed method and manual standards and indicates the strong correlation and reproducibility for volumetric analysis. We extend the proposed method to the public KiTS dataset, the method leads to improved accuracy compared to transformer-based approaches. We show that the 3D block aggregation transformer can achieve local communication between sequence representations without modifying self-attention, and it can serve as an accurate and efficient quantification tool for characterizing renal structures.

Evaluating open-domain dialogue systems is challenging for reasons such as the one-to-many problem, i.e., many appropriate responses other than just the golden response. As of now, automatic evaluation methods need better consistency with humans, while reliable human evaluation can be time- and cost-intensive. To this end, we propose the Reference-Assisted Dialogue Evaluation (RADE) approach under the multi-task learning framework, which leverages the pre-created utterance as reference other than the gold response to relief the one-to-many problem. Specifically, RADE explicitly compares reference and the candidate response to predict their overall scores. Moreover, an auxiliary response generation task enhances prediction via a shared encoder. To support RADE, we extend three datasets with additional rated responses other than just a golden response by human annotation. Experiments on our three datasets and two existing benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, where Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlations with human evaluation outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

The last decade has seen a marked shift in how the internal structure of hadrons is understood. Modern experimental facilities, new theoretical techniques for the continuum bound-state problem and progress with lattice-regularised QCD have provided strong indications that soft quark+quark (diquark) correlations play a crucial role in hadron physics. For example, theory indicates that the appearance of such correlations is a necessary consequence of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking, viz. a corollary of emergent hadronic mass that is responsible for almost all visible mass in the universe; experiment has uncovered signals for such correlations in the flavour-separation of the proton's electromagnetic form factors; and phenomenology suggests that diquark correlations might be critical to the formation of exotic tetra- and penta-quark hadrons. A broad spectrum of such information is evaluated herein, with a view to consolidating the facts and therefrom moving toward a coherent, unified picture of hadron structure and the role that diquark correlations might play.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

In this research, we compare four different evaluation methods in coevolution on the Majority Function problem. The size of the problem is selected such that evaluation against all possible test cases is feasible. Two measures are used for the comparisons, i.e., the objective fitness derived from evaluating solutions against all test cases, and the objective fitness correlation (OFC), which is defined as the correlation coefficient between subjective and objective fitness. The results of our experiments suggest that a combination of average score and weighted informativeness may provide a more accurate evaluation in coevolution. In order to confirm this difference, a series of t-tests on the preference between each pair of the evaluation methods is performed. The resulting significance is affirmative, and the tests for two quality measures show similar preference on four evaluation methods. %This study is the first time OFC is actually computed on a real problem. Experiments on Majority Function problems with larger sizes and Parity problems are in progress, and their results will be added in the final version.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

A critical barrier to learning an accurate decision rule for outlier detection is the scarcity of outlier data. As such, practitioners often turn to the use of similar but imperfect outlier data from which they might transfer information to the target outlier detection task. Despite the recent empirical success of transfer learning approaches in outlier detection, a fundamental understanding of when and how knowledge can be transferred from a source to a target outlier detection task remains elusive. In this work, we adopt the traditional framework of Neyman-Pearson classification -- which formalizes supervised outlier detection -- with the added assumption that one has access to some related but imperfect outlier data. Our main results are as follows: We first determine the information-theoretic limits of the problem under a measure of discrepancy that extends some existing notions from traditional balanced classification; interestingly, unlike in balanced classification, seemingly very dissimilar sources can provide much information about a target, thus resulting in fast transfer. We then show that, in principle, these information-theoretic limits are achievable by adaptive procedures, i.e., procedures with no a priori information on the discrepancy between source and target outlier distributions.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

To investigate whether the pleurae, airways and vessels surrounding a nodule on non-contrast computed tomography (CT) can discriminate benign and malignant pulmonary nodules. The LIDC-IDRI dataset, one of the largest publicly available CT database, was exploited for study. A total of 1556 nodules from 694 patients were involved in statistical analysis, where nodules with average scorings <3 and >3 were respectively denoted as benign and malignant. Besides, 339 nodules from 113 patients with diagnosis ground-truth were independently evaluated. Computer algorithms were developed to segment pulmonary structures and quantify the distances to pleural surface, airways and vessels, as well as the counting number and normalized volume of airways and vessels near a nodule. Odds ratio (OR) and Chi-square (\chi^2) testing were performed to demonstrate the correlation between features of surrounding structures and nodule malignancy. A non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted in logistic regression to evaluate discrimination ability of each structure. For benign and malignant groups, the average distances from nodules to pleural surface, airways and vessels are respectively (6.56, 5.19), (37.08, 26.43) and (1.42, 1.07) mm. The correlation between nodules and the counting number of airways and vessels that contact or project towards nodules are respectively (OR=22.96, \chi^2=105.04) and (OR=7.06, \chi^2=290.11). The correlation between nodules and the volume of airways and vessels are (OR=9.19, \chi^2=159.02) and (OR=2.29, \chi^2=55.89). The areas-under-curves (AUCs) for pleurae, airways and vessels are respectively 0.5202, 0.6943 and 0.6529. Our results show that malignant nodules are often surrounded by more pulmonary structures compared with benign ones, suggesting that features of these structures could be viewed as lung cancer biomarkers.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

Recent researches have proven that pre-training on large-scale person images extracted from internet videos is an effective way in learning better representations for person re-identification. However, these researches are mostly confined to pre-training at the instance-level or single-video tracklet-level. They ignore the identity-invariance in images of the same person across different videos, which is a key focus in person re-identification. To address this issue, we propose a Cross-video Identity-cOrrelating pre-traiNing (CION) framework. Defining a noise concept that comprehensively considers both intra-identity consistency and inter-identity discrimination, CION seeks the identity correlation from cross-video images by modeling it as a progressive multi-level denoising problem. Furthermore, an identity-guided self-distillation loss is proposed to implement better large-scale pre-training by mining the identity-invariance within person images. We conduct extensive experiments to verify the superiority of our CION in terms of efficiency and performance. CION achieves significantly leading performance with even fewer training samples. For example, compared with the previous state-of-the-art~ISR, CION with the same ResNet50-IBN achieves higher mAP of 93.3\% and 74.3\% on Market1501 and MSMT17, while only utilizing 8\% training samples. Finally, with CION demonstrating superior model-agnostic ability, we contribute a model zoo named ReIDZoo to meet diverse research and application needs in this field. It contains a series of CION pre-trained models with spanning structures and parameters, totaling 32 models with 10 different structures, including GhostNet, ConvNext, RepViT, FastViT and so on. The code and models will be made publicly available at https://github.com/Zplusdragon/CION_ReIDZoo.

Person reidentification (ReID) technology has been considered to perform relatively well under controlled, ground-level conditions, but it breaks down when deployed in challenging real-world settings. Evidently, this is due to extreme data variability factors such as resolution, viewpoint changes, scale variations, occlusions, and appearance shifts from clothing or session drifts. Moreover, the publicly available data sets do not realistically incorporate such kinds and magnitudes of variability, which limits the progress of this technology. This paper introduces DetReIDX, a large-scale aerial-ground person dataset, that was explicitly designed as a stress test to ReID under real-world conditions. DetReIDX is a multi-session set that includes over 13 million bounding boxes from 509 identities, collected in seven university campuses from three continents, with drone altitudes between 5.8 and 120 meters. More important, as a key novelty, DetReIDX subjects were recorded in (at least) two sessions on different days, with changes in clothing, daylight and location, making it suitable to actually evaluate long-term person ReID. Plus, data were annotated from 16 soft biometric attributes and multitask labels for detection, tracking, ReID, and action recognition. In order to provide empirical evidence of DetReIDX usefulness, we considered the specific tasks of human detection and ReID, where SOTA methods catastrophically degrade performance (up to 80% in detection accuracy and over 70% in Rank-1 ReID) when exposed to DetReIDXs conditions. The dataset, annotations, and official evaluation protocols are publicly available at https://www.it.ubi.pt/DetReIDX/

Person retrieval has attracted rising attention. Existing methods are mainly divided into two retrieval modes, namely image-only and text-only. However, they are unable to make full use of the available information and are difficult to meet diverse application requirements. To address the above limitations, we propose a new Composed Person Retrieval (CPR) task, which combines visual and textual queries to identify individuals of interest from large-scale person image databases. Nevertheless, the foremost difficulty of the CPR task is the lack of available annotated datasets. Therefore, we first introduce a scalable automatic data synthesis pipeline, which decomposes complex multimodal data generation into the creation of textual quadruples followed by identity-consistent image synthesis using fine-tuned generative models. Meanwhile, a multimodal filtering method is designed to ensure the resulting SynCPR dataset retains 1.15 million high-quality and fully synthetic triplets. Additionally, to improve the representation of composed person queries, we propose a novel Fine-grained Adaptive Feature Alignment (FAFA) framework through fine-grained dynamic alignment and masked feature reasoning. Moreover, for objective evaluation, we manually annotate the Image-Text Composed Person Retrieval (ITCPR) test set. The extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the SynCPR dataset and the superiority of the proposed FAFA framework when compared with the state-of-the-art methods. All code and data will be provided at https://github.com/Delong-liu-bupt/Composed_Person_Retrieval.

Person re-identification (ReID) aims to extract accurate identity representation features. However, during feature extraction, individual samples are inevitably affected by noise (background, occlusions, and model limitations). Considering that features from the same identity follow a normal distribution around identity centers after training, we propose a Training-Free Feature Centralization ReID framework (Pose2ID) by aggregating the same identity features to reduce individual noise and enhance the stability of identity representation, which preserves the feature's original distribution for following strategies such as re-ranking. Specifically, to obtain samples of the same identity, we introduce two components:Identity-Guided Pedestrian Generation: by leveraging identity features to guide the generation process, we obtain high-quality images with diverse poses, ensuring identity consistency even in complex scenarios such as infrared, and occlusion.Neighbor Feature Centralization: it explores each sample's potential positive samples from its neighborhood. Experiments demonstrate that our generative model exhibits strong generalization capabilities and maintains high identity consistency. With the Feature Centralization framework, we achieve impressive performance even with an ImageNet pre-trained model without ReID training, reaching mAP/Rank-1 of 52.81/78.92 on Market1501. Moreover, our method sets new state-of-the-art results across standard, cross-modality, and occluded ReID tasks, showcasing strong adaptability.

Person Re-identification (ReID) aims to retrieve the specific person across non-overlapping cameras, which greatly helps intelligent transportation systems. As we all know, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers have the unique strengths to extract local and global features, respectively. Considering this fact, we focus on the mutual fusion between them to learn more comprehensive representations for persons. In particular, we utilize the complementary integration of deep features from different model structures. We propose a novel fusion framework called FusionReID to unify the strengths of CNNs and Transformers for image-based person ReID. More specifically, we first deploy a Dual-branch Feature Extraction (DFE) to extract features through CNNs and Transformers from a single image. Moreover, we design a novel Dual-attention Mutual Fusion (DMF) to achieve sufficient feature fusions. The DMF comprises Local Refinement Units (LRU) and Heterogenous Transmission Modules (HTM). LRU utilizes depth-separable convolutions to align deep features in channel dimensions and spatial sizes. HTM consists of a Shared Encoding Unit (SEU) and two Mutual Fusion Units (MFU). Through the continuous stacking of HTM, deep features after LRU are repeatedly utilized to generate more discriminative features. Extensive experiments on three public ReID benchmarks demonstrate that our method can attain superior performances than most state-of-the-arts. The source code is available at https://github.com/924973292/FusionReID.

Person re-identification (ReID) has made great strides thanks to the data-driven deep learning techniques. However, the existing benchmark datasets lack diversity, and models trained on these data cannot generalize well to dynamic wild scenarios. To meet the goal of improving the explicit generalization of ReID models, we develop a new Open-World, Diverse, Cross-Spatial-Temporal dataset named OWD with several distinct features. 1) Diverse collection scenes: multiple independent open-world and highly dynamic collecting scenes, including streets, intersections, shopping malls, etc. 2) Diverse lighting variations: long time spans from daytime to nighttime with abundant illumination changes. 3) Diverse person status: multiple camera networks in all seasons with normal/adverse weather conditions and diverse pedestrian appearances (e.g., clothes, personal belongings, poses, etc.). 4) Protected privacy: invisible faces for privacy critical applications. To improve the implicit generalization of ReID, we further propose a Latent Domain Expansion (LDE) method to develop the potential of source data, which decouples discriminative identity-relevant and trustworthy domain-relevant features and implicitly enforces domain-randomized identity feature space expansion with richer domain diversity to facilitate domain invariant representations. Our comprehensive evaluations with most benchmark datasets in the community are crucial for progress, although this work is far from the grand goal toward open-world and dynamic wild applications.

Wide-scale use of visual surveillance in public spaces puts individual privacy at stake while increasing resource consumption (energy, bandwidth, and computation). Neuromorphic vision sensors (event-cameras) have been recently considered a valid solution to the privacy issue because they do not capture detailed RGB visual information of the subjects in the scene. However, recent deep learning architectures have been able to reconstruct images from event cameras with high fidelity, reintroducing a potential threat to privacy for event-based vision applications. In this paper, we aim to anonymize event-streams to protect the identity of human subjects against such image reconstruction attacks. To achieve this, we propose an end-to-end network architecture jointly optimized for the twofold objective of preserving privacy and performing a downstream task such as person ReId. Our network learns to scramble events, enforcing the degradation of images recovered from the privacy attacker. In this work, we also bring to the community the first ever event-based person ReId dataset gathered to evaluate the performance of our approach. We validate our approach with extensive experiments and report results on the synthetic event data simulated from the publicly available SoftBio dataset and our proposed Event-ReId dataset.

Person re-identification plays a key role in applications where a mobile robot needs to track its users over a long period of time, even if they are partially unobserved for some time, in order to follow them or be available on demand. In this context, deep-learning based real-time feature extraction on a mobile robot is often performed on special-purpose devices whose computational resources are shared for multiple tasks. Therefore, the inference speed has to be taken into account. In contrast, person re-identification is often improved by architectural changes that come at the cost of significantly slowing down inference. Attention blocks are one such example. We will show that some well-performing attention blocks used in the state of the art are subject to inference costs that are far too high to justify their use for mobile robotic applications. As a consequence, we propose an attention block that only slightly affects the inference speed while keeping up with much deeper networks or more complex attention blocks in terms of re-identification accuracy. We perform extensive neural architecture search to derive rules at which locations this attention block should be integrated into the architecture in order to achieve the best trade-off between speed and accuracy. Finally, we confirm that the best performing configuration on a re-identification benchmark also performs well on an indoor robotic dataset.

Person search aims to jointly localize and identify a query person from natural, uncropped images, which has been actively studied over the past few years. In this paper, we delve into the rich context information globally and locally surrounding the target person, which we refer to as scene and group context, respectively. Unlike previous works that treat the two types of context individually, we exploit them in a unified global-local context network (GLCNet) with the intuitive aim of feature enhancement. Specifically, re-ID embeddings and context features are simultaneously learned in a multi-stage fashion, ultimately leading to enhanced, discriminative features for person search. We conduct the experiments on two person search benchmarks (i.e., CUHK-SYSU and PRW) as well as extend our approach to a more challenging setting (i.e., character search on MovieNet). Extensive experimental results demonstrate the consistent improvement of the proposed GLCNet over the state-of-the-art methods on all three datasets. Our source codes, pre-trained models, and the new dataset are publicly available at: https://github.com/ZhengPeng7/GLCNet.

Person re-identification (re-ID) in the scenario with large spatial and temporal spans has not been fully explored. This is partially because that, existing benchmark datasets were mainly collected with limited spatial and temporal ranges, e.g., using videos recorded in a few days by cameras in a specific region of the campus. Such limited spatial and temporal ranges make it hard to simulate the difficulties of person re-ID in real scenarios. In this work, we contribute a novel Large-scale Spatio-Temporal LaST person re-ID dataset, including 10,862 identities with more than 228k images. Compared with existing datasets, LaST presents more challenging and high-diversity re-ID settings, and significantly larger spatial and temporal ranges. For instance, each person can appear in different cities or countries, and in various time slots from daytime to night, and in different seasons from spring to winter. To our best knowledge, LaST is a novel person re-ID dataset with the largest spatio-temporal ranges. Based on LaST, we verified its challenge by conducting a comprehensive performance evaluation of 14 re-ID algorithms. We further propose an easy-to-implement baseline that works well on such challenging re-ID setting. We also verified that models pre-trained on LaST can generalize well on existing datasets with short-term and cloth-changing scenarios. We expect LaST to inspire future works toward more realistic and challenging re-ID tasks. More information about the dataset is available at https://github.com/shuxjweb/last.git.

Person re-identification (re-id), the process of matching pedestrian images across different camera views, is an important task in visual surveillance. Substantial development of re-id has recently been observed, and the majority of existing models are largely dependent on color appearance and assume that pedestrians do not change their clothes across camera views. This limitation, however, can be an issue for re-id when tracking a person at different places and at different time if that person (e.g., a criminal suspect) changes his/her clothes, causing most existing methods to fail, since they are heavily relying on color appearance and thus they are inclined to match a person to another person wearing similar clothes. In this work, we call the person re-id under clothing change the "cross-clothes person re-id". In particular, we consider the case when a person only changes his clothes moderately as a first attempt at solving this problem based on visible light images; that is we assume that a person wears clothes of a similar thickness, and thus the shape of a person would not change significantly when the weather does not change substantially within a short period of time. We perform cross-clothes person re-id based on a contour sketch of person image to take advantage of the shape of the human body instead of color information for extracting features that are robust to moderate clothing change. Due to the lack of a large-scale dataset for cross-clothes person re-id, we contribute a new dataset that consists of 33698 images from 221 identities. Our experiments illustrate the challenges of cross-clothes person re-id and demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Person re-identification (re-ID), which aims to re-identify people across different camera views, has been significantly advanced by deep learning in recent years, particularly with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this paper, we present Torchreid, a software library built on PyTorch that allows fast development and end-to-end training and evaluation of deep re-ID models. As a general-purpose framework for person re-ID research, Torchreid provides (1) unified data loaders that support 15 commonly used re-ID benchmark datasets covering both image and video domains, (2) streamlined pipelines for quick development and benchmarking of deep re-ID models, and (3) implementations of the latest re-ID CNN architectures along with their pre-trained models to facilitate reproducibility as well as future research. With a high-level modularity in its design, Torchreid offers a great flexibility to allow easy extension to new datasets, CNN models and loss functions.

Recognising persons in everyday photos presents major challenges (occluded faces, different clothing, locations, etc.) for machine vision. We propose a convnet based person recognition system on which we provide an in-depth analysis of informativeness of different body cues, impact of training data, and the common failure modes of the system. In addition, we discuss the limitations of existing benchmarks and propose more challenging ones. Our method is simple and is built on open source and open data, yet it improves the state of the art results on a large dataset of social media photos (PIPA).

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Controllable person image generation aims to generate a person image conditioned on reference images, allowing precise control over the person's appearance or pose. However, prior methods often distort fine-grained textural details from the reference image, despite achieving high overall image quality. We attribute these distortions to inadequate attention to corresponding regions in the reference image. To address this, we thereby propose learning flow fields in attention (Leffa), which explicitly guides the target query to attend to the correct reference key in the attention layer during training. Specifically, it is realized via a regularization loss on top of the attention map within a diffusion-based baseline. Our extensive experiments show that Leffa achieves state-of-the-art performance in controlling appearance (virtual try-on) and pose (pose transfer), significantly reducing fine-grained detail distortion while maintaining high image quality. Additionally, we show that our loss is model-agnostic and can be used to improve the performance of other diffusion models.

Generative models such as StyleGAN2 and Stable Diffusion have achieved state-of-the-art performance in computer vision tasks such as image synthesis, inpainting, and de-noising. However, current generative models for face inpainting often fail to preserve fine facial details and the identity of the person, despite creating aesthetically convincing image structures and textures. In this work, we propose Person Aware Tuning (PAT) of Mask-Aware Transformer (MAT) for face inpainting, which addresses this issue. Our proposed method, PATMAT, effectively preserves identity by incorporating reference images of a subject and fine-tuning a MAT architecture trained on faces. By using ~40 reference images, PATMAT creates anchor points in MAT's style module, and tunes the model using the fixed anchors to adapt the model to a new face identity. Moreover, PATMAT's use of multiple images per anchor during training allows the model to use fewer reference images than competing methods. We demonstrate that PATMAT outperforms state-of-the-art models in terms of image quality, the preservation of person-specific details, and the identity of the subject. Our results suggest that PATMAT can be a promising approach for improving the quality of personalized face inpainting.

Multi-person pose estimation (MPPE) estimates keypoints for all individuals present in an image. MPPE is a fundamental task for several applications in computer vision and virtual reality. Unfortunately, there are currently no transformer-based models that can perform MPPE in real time. The paper presents a family of transformer-based models capable of performing multi-person 2D pose estimation in real-time. Our approach utilizes a modified decoder architecture and keypoint similarity metrics to generate both positive and negative queries, thereby enhancing the quality of the selected queries within the architecture. Compared to state-of-the-art models, our proposed models train much faster, using 5 to 10 times fewer epochs, with competitive inference times without requiring quantization libraries to speed up the model. Furthermore, our proposed models provide competitive results or outperform alternative models, often using significantly fewer parameters.

Computer vision is transforming fashion through Virtual Try-On (VTON) and Virtual Try-Off (VTOFF). VTON generates images of a person in a specified garment using a target photo and a standardized garment image, while a more challenging variant, Person-to-Person Virtual Try-On (p2p-VTON), uses a photo of another person wearing the garment. VTOFF, on the other hand, extracts standardized garment images from clothed individuals. We introduce TryOffDiff, a diffusion-based VTOFF model. Built on a latent diffusion framework with SigLIP image conditioning, it effectively captures garment properties like texture, shape, and patterns. TryOffDiff achieves state-of-the-art results on VITON-HD and strong performance on DressCode dataset, covering upper-body, lower-body, and dresses. Enhanced with class-specific embeddings, it pioneers multi-garment VTOFF, the first of its kind. When paired with VTON models, it improves p2p-VTON by minimizing unwanted attribute transfer, such as skin color. Code is available at: https://rizavelioglu.github.io/tryoffdiff/

Generating high-quality and person-generic visual dubbing remains a challenge. Recent innovation has seen the advent of a two-stage paradigm, decoupling the rendering and lip synchronization process facilitated by intermediate representation as a conduit. Still, previous methodologies rely on rough landmarks or are confined to a single speaker, thus limiting their performance. In this paper, we propose DiffDub: Diffusion-based dubbing. We first craft the Diffusion auto-encoder by an inpainting renderer incorporating a mask to delineate editable zones and unaltered regions. This allows for seamless filling of the lower-face region while preserving the remaining parts. Throughout our experiments, we encountered several challenges. Primarily, the semantic encoder lacks robustness, constricting its ability to capture high-level features. Besides, the modeling ignored facial positioning, causing mouth or nose jitters across frames. To tackle these issues, we employ versatile strategies, including data augmentation and supplementary eye guidance. Moreover, we encapsulated a conformer-based reference encoder and motion generator fortified by a cross-attention mechanism. This enables our model to learn person-specific textures with varying references and reduces reliance on paired audio-visual data. Our rigorous experiments comprehensively highlight that our ground-breaking approach outpaces existing methods with considerable margins and delivers seamless, intelligible videos in person-generic and multilingual scenarios.

Multi-person 3D mesh recovery from videos is a critical first step towards automatic perception of group behavior in virtual reality, physical therapy and beyond. However, existing approaches rely on multi-stage paradigms, where the person detection and tracking stages are performed in a multi-person setting, while temporal dynamics are only modeled for one person at a time. Consequently, their performance is severely limited by the lack of inter-person interactions in the spatial-temporal mesh recovery, as well as by detection and tracking defects. To address these challenges, we propose the Coordinate transFormer (CoordFormer) that directly models multi-person spatial-temporal relations and simultaneously performs multi-mesh recovery in an end-to-end manner. Instead of partitioning the feature map into coarse-scale patch-wise tokens, CoordFormer leverages a novel Coordinate-Aware Attention to preserve pixel-level spatial-temporal coordinate information. Additionally, we propose a simple, yet effective Body Center Attention mechanism to fuse position information. Extensive experiments on the 3DPW dataset demonstrate that CoordFormer significantly improves the state-of-the-art, outperforming the previously best results by 4.2%, 8.8% and 4.7% according to the MPJPE, PAMPJPE, and PVE metrics, respectively, while being 40% faster than recent video-based approaches. The released code can be found at https://github.com/Li-Hao-yuan/CoordFormer.

Multi-person motion prediction is a challenging problem due to the dependency of motion on both individual past movements and interactions with other people. Transformer-based methods have shown promising results on this task, but they miss the explicit relation representation between joints, such as skeleton structure and pairwise distance, which is crucial for accurate interaction modeling. In this paper, we propose the Joint-Relation Transformer, which utilizes relation information to enhance interaction modeling and improve future motion prediction. Our relation information contains the relative distance and the intra-/inter-person physical constraints. To fuse relation and joint information, we design a novel joint-relation fusion layer with relation-aware attention to update both features. Additionally, we supervise the relation information by forecasting future distance. Experiments show that our method achieves a 13.4% improvement of 900ms VIM on 3DPW-SoMoF/RC and 17.8%/12.0% improvement of 3s MPJPE on CMU-Mpcap/MuPoTS-3D dataset.

Existing person image generative models can do either image generation or pose transfer but not both. We propose a unified diffusion model, UPGPT to provide a universal solution to perform all the person image tasks - generative, pose transfer, and editing. With fine-grained multimodality and disentanglement capabilities, our approach offers fine-grained control over the generation and the editing process of images using a combination of pose, text, and image, all without needing a semantic segmentation mask which can be challenging to obtain or edit. We also pioneer the parameterized body SMPL model in pose-guided person image generation to demonstrate new capability - simultaneous pose and camera view interpolation while maintaining a person's appearance. Results on the benchmark DeepFashion dataset show that UPGPT is the new state-of-the-art while simultaneously pioneering new capabilities of edit and pose transfer in human image generation.

Occluded person re-identification (ReID) is a person retrieval task which aims at matching occluded person images with holistic ones. For addressing occluded ReID, part-based methods have been shown beneficial as they offer fine-grained information and are well suited to represent partially visible human bodies. However, training a part-based model is a challenging task for two reasons. Firstly, individual body part appearance is not as discriminative as global appearance (two distinct IDs might have the same local appearance), this means standard ReID training objectives using identity labels are not adapted to local feature learning. Secondly, ReID datasets are not provided with human topographical annotations. In this work, we propose BPBreID, a body part-based ReID model for solving the above issues. We first design two modules for predicting body part attention maps and producing body part-based features of the ReID target. We then propose GiLt, a novel training scheme for learning part-based representations that is robust to occlusions and non-discriminative local appearance. Extensive experiments on popular holistic and occluded datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed method, which outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 0.7% mAP and 5.6% rank-1 accuracy on the challenging Occluded-Duke dataset. Our code is available at https://github.com/VlSomers/bpbreid.

Controllable person image synthesis task enables a wide range of applications through explicit control over body pose and appearance. In this paper, we propose a cross attention based style distribution module that computes between the source semantic styles and target pose for pose transfer. The module intentionally selects the style represented by each semantic and distributes them according to the target pose. The attention matrix in cross attention expresses the dynamic similarities between the target pose and the source styles for all semantics. Therefore, it can be utilized to route the color and texture from the source image, and is further constrained by the target parsing map to achieve a clearer objective. At the same time, to encode the source appearance accurately, the self attention among different semantic styles is also added. The effectiveness of our model is validated quantitatively and qualitatively on pose transfer and virtual try-on tasks.

Controllable person image generation aims to produce realistic human images with desirable attributes such as a given pose, cloth textures, or hairstyles. However, the large spatial misalignment between source and target images makes the standard image-to-image translation architectures unsuitable for this task. Most state-of-the-art methods focus on alignment for global pose-transfer tasks. However, they fail to deal with region-specific texture-transfer tasks, especially for person images with complex textures. To solve this problem, we propose a novel Spatially-Adaptive Warped Normalization (SAWN) which integrates a learned flow-field to warp modulation parameters. It allows us to efficiently align person spatially-adaptive styles with pose features. Moreover, we propose a novel Self-Training Part Replacement (STPR) strategy to refine the model for the texture-transfer task, which improves the quality of the generated clothes and the preservation ability of non-target regions. Our experimental results on the widely used DeepFashion dataset demonstrate a significant improvement of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art methods on pose-transfer and texture-transfer tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhangqianhui/Sawn.

Existing person re-identification models often have low generalizability, which is mostly due to limited availability of large-scale labeled data in training. However, labeling large-scale training data is very expensive and time-consuming, while large-scale synthetic dataset shows promising value in learning generalizable person re-identification models. Therefore, in this paper a novel and practical person re-identification task is proposed,i.e. how to use labeled synthetic dataset and unlabeled real-world dataset to train a universal model. In this way, human annotations are no longer required, and it is scalable to large and diverse real-world datasets. To address the task, we introduce a framework with high generalizability, namely DomainMix. Specifically, the proposed method firstly clusters the unlabeled real-world images and selects the reliable clusters. During training, to address the large domain gap between two domains, a domain-invariant feature learning method is proposed, which introduces a new loss,i.e. domain balance loss, to conduct an adversarial learning between domain-invariant feature learning and domain discrimination, and meanwhile learns a discriminative feature for person re-identification. This way, the domain gap between synthetic and real-world data is much reduced, and the learned feature is generalizable thanks to the large-scale and diverse training data. Experimental results show that the proposed annotation-free method is more or less comparable to the counterpart trained with full human annotations, which is quite promising. In addition, it achieves the current state of the art on several person re-identification datasets under direct cross-dataset evaluation.

This paper introduces the Attribute-Decomposed GAN, a novel generative model for controllable person image synthesis, which can produce realistic person images with desired human attributes (e.g., pose, head, upper clothes and pants) provided in various source inputs. The core idea of the proposed model is to embed human attributes into the latent space as independent codes and thus achieve flexible and continuous control of attributes via mixing and interpolation operations in explicit style representations. Specifically, a new architecture consisting of two encoding pathways with style block connections is proposed to decompose the original hard mapping into multiple more accessible subtasks. In source pathway, we further extract component layouts with an off-the-shelf human parser and feed them into a shared global texture encoder for decomposed latent codes. This strategy allows for the synthesis of more realistic output images and automatic separation of un-annotated attributes. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed method's superiority over the state of the art in pose transfer and its effectiveness in the brand-new task of component attribute transfer.

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that predict the stress of a preordained person) yield reliable predictions, but they are not adaptable and costly to deploy in real-world environments. For illustration, in an office environment, a stress monitoring system that uses person-specific models would require collecting new data and training a new model for every employee. Moreover, once deployed, the models would deteriorate and need expensive periodic upgrades because stress is dynamic and depends on unforeseeable factors. We propose a simple, yet practical and cost effective calibration technique that derives an accurate and personalized stress prediction model from physiological samples collected from a large population. We validate our approach on two stress datasets. The results show that our technique performs much better than a generic model. For instance, a generic model achieved only a 42.5% accuracy. However, with only 100 calibration samples, we raised its accuracy to 95.2% We also propose a blueprint for a stress monitoring system based on our strategy, and we debate its merits and limitation. Finally, we made public our source code and the relevant datasets to allow other researchers to replicate our findings.

We present a box-free bottom-up approach for the tasks of pose estimation and instance segmentation of people in multi-person images using an efficient single-shot model. The proposed PersonLab model tackles both semantic-level reasoning and object-part associations using part-based modeling. Our model employs a convolutional network which learns to detect individual keypoints and predict their relative displacements, allowing us to group keypoints into person pose instances. Further, we propose a part-induced geometric embedding descriptor which allows us to associate semantic person pixels with their corresponding person instance, delivering instance-level person segmentations. Our system is based on a fully-convolutional architecture and allows for efficient inference, with runtime essentially independent of the number of people present in the scene. Trained on COCO data alone, our system achieves COCO test-dev keypoint average precision of 0.665 using single-scale inference and 0.687 using multi-scale inference, significantly outperforming all previous bottom-up pose estimation systems. We are also the first bottom-up method to report competitive results for the person class in the COCO instance segmentation task, achieving a person category average precision of 0.417.

In the past few years, the field of computer vision has gone through a revolution fueled mainly by the advent of large datasets and the adoption of deep convolutional neural networks for end-to-end learning. The person re-identification subfield is no exception to this. Unfortunately, a prevailing belief in the community seems to be that the triplet loss is inferior to using surrogate losses (classification, verification) followed by a separate metric learning step. We show that, for models trained from scratch as well as pretrained ones, using a variant of the triplet loss to perform end-to-end deep metric learning outperforms most other published methods by a large margin.

As we shift more of our lives into the virtual domain, the volume of data shared on the web keeps increasing and presents a threat to our privacy. This works contributes to the understanding of privacy implications of such data sharing by analysing how well people are recognisable in social media data. To facilitate a systematic study we define a number of scenarios considering factors such as how many heads of a person are tagged and if those heads are obfuscated or not. We propose a robust person recognition system that can handle large variations in pose and clothing, and can be trained with few training samples. Our results indicate that a handful of images is enough to threaten users' privacy, even in the presence of obfuscation. We show detailed experimental results, and discuss their implications.

This study thoroughly investigates how well deep learning models can recognize Arabic handwritten text for person biometric identification. It compares three advanced architectures -- ResNet50, MobileNetV2, and EfficientNetB7 -- using three widely recognized datasets: AHAWP, Khatt, and LAMIS-MSHD. Results show that EfficientNetB7 outperforms the others, achieving test accuracies of 98.57\%, 99.15\%, and 99.79\% on AHAWP, Khatt, and LAMIS-MSHD datasets, respectively. EfficientNetB7's exceptional performance is credited to its innovative techniques, including compound scaling, depth-wise separable convolutions, and squeeze-and-excitation blocks. These features allow the model to extract more abstract and distinctive features from handwritten text images. The study's findings hold significant implications for enhancing identity verification and authentication systems, highlighting the potential of deep learning in Arabic handwritten text recognition for person biometric identification.

Current subject-driven image generation methods encounter significant challenges in person-centric image generation. The reason is that they learn the semantic scene and person generation by fine-tuning a common pre-trained diffusion, which involves an irreconcilable training imbalance. Precisely, to generate realistic persons, they need to sufficiently tune the pre-trained model, which inevitably causes the model to forget the rich semantic scene prior and makes scene generation over-fit to the training data. Moreover, even with sufficient fine-tuning, these methods can still not generate high-fidelity persons since joint learning of the scene and person generation also lead to quality compromise. In this paper, we propose Face-diffuser, an effective collaborative generation pipeline to eliminate the above training imbalance and quality compromise. Specifically, we first develop two specialized pre-trained diffusion models, i.e., Text-driven Diffusion Model (TDM) and Subject-augmented Diffusion Model (SDM), for scene and person generation, respectively. The sampling process is divided into three sequential stages, i.e., semantic scene construction, subject-scene fusion, and subject enhancement. The first and last stages are performed by TDM and SDM respectively. The subject-scene fusion stage, that is the collaboration achieved through a novel and highly effective mechanism, Saliency-adaptive Noise Fusion (SNF). Specifically, it is based on our key observation that there exists a robust link between classifier-free guidance responses and the saliency of generated images. In each time step, SNF leverages the unique strengths of each model and allows for the spatial blending of predicted noises from both models automatically in a saliency-aware manner. Extensive experiments confirm the impressive effectiveness and robustness of the Face-diffuser.

Visible-infrared person re-identification (VI-ReID) is a challenging task due to large cross-modality discrepancies and intra-class variations. Existing methods mainly focus on learning modality-shared representations by embedding different modalities into the same feature space. As a result, the learned feature emphasizes the common patterns across modalities while suppressing modality-specific and identity-aware information that is valuable for Re-ID. To address these issues, we propose a novel Modality Unifying Network (MUN) to explore a robust auxiliary modality for VI-ReID. First, the auxiliary modality is generated by combining the proposed cross-modality learner and intra-modality learner, which can dynamically model the modality-specific and modality-shared representations to alleviate both cross-modality and intra-modality variations. Second, by aligning identity centres across the three modalities, an identity alignment loss function is proposed to discover the discriminative feature representations. Third, a modality alignment loss is introduced to consistently reduce the distribution distance of visible and infrared images by modality prototype modeling. Extensive experiments on multiple public datasets demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses the current state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin.

Long-Term Person Re-Identification (LT-ReID) has become increasingly crucial in computer vision and biometrics. In this work, we aim to extend LT-ReID beyond pedestrian recognition to include a wider range of real-world human activities while still accounting for cloth-changing scenarios over large time gaps. This setting poses additional challenges due to the geometric misalignment and appearance ambiguity caused by the diversity of human pose and clothing. To address these challenges, we propose a new approach 3DInvarReID for (i) disentangling identity from non-identity components (pose, clothing shape, and texture) of 3D clothed humans, and (ii) reconstructing accurate 3D clothed body shapes and learning discriminative features of naked body shapes for person ReID in a joint manner. To better evaluate our study of LT-ReID, we collect a real-world dataset called CCDA, which contains a wide variety of human activities and clothing changes. Experimentally, we show the superior performance of our approach for person ReID.

Learning to solve precision-based manipulation tasks from visual feedback using Reinforcement Learning (RL) could drastically reduce the engineering efforts required by traditional robot systems. However, performing fine-grained motor control from visual inputs alone is challenging, especially with a static third-person camera as often used in previous work. We propose a setting for robotic manipulation in which the agent receives visual feedback from both a third-person camera and an egocentric camera mounted on the robot's wrist. While the third-person camera is static, the egocentric camera enables the robot to actively control its vision to aid in precise manipulation. To fuse visual information from both cameras effectively, we additionally propose to use Transformers with a cross-view attention mechanism that models spatial attention from one view to another (and vice-versa), and use the learned features as input to an RL policy. Our method improves learning over strong single-view and multi-view baselines, and successfully transfers to a set of challenging manipulation tasks on a real robot with uncalibrated cameras, no access to state information, and a high degree of task variability. In a hammer manipulation task, our method succeeds in 75% of trials versus 38% and 13% for multi-view and single-view baselines, respectively.

Realtime multi-person 2D pose estimation is a key component in enabling machines to have an understanding of people in images and videos. In this work, we present a realtime approach to detect the 2D pose of multiple people in an image. The proposed method uses a nonparametric representation, which we refer to as Part Affinity Fields (PAFs), to learn to associate body parts with individuals in the image. This bottom-up system achieves high accuracy and realtime performance, regardless of the number of people in the image. In previous work, PAFs and body part location estimation were refined simultaneously across training stages. We demonstrate that a PAF-only refinement rather than both PAF and body part location refinement results in a substantial increase in both runtime performance and accuracy. We also present the first combined body and foot keypoint detector, based on an internal annotated foot dataset that we have publicly released. We show that the combined detector not only reduces the inference time compared to running them sequentially, but also maintains the accuracy of each component individually. This work has culminated in the release of OpenPose, the first open-source realtime system for multi-person 2D pose detection, including body, foot, hand, and facial keypoints.

Current clothes-changing person re-identification (re-id) approaches usually perform retrieval based on clothes-irrelevant features, while neglecting the potential of clothes-relevant features. However, we observe that relying solely on clothes-irrelevant features for clothes-changing re-id is limited, since they often lack adequate identity information and suffer from large intra-class variations. On the contrary, clothes-relevant features can be used to discover same-clothes intermediaries that possess informative identity clues. Based on this observation, we propose a Feasibility-Aware Intermediary Matching (FAIM) framework to additionally utilize clothes-relevant features for retrieval. Firstly, an Intermediary Matching (IM) module is designed to perform an intermediary-assisted matching process. This process involves using clothes-relevant features to find informative intermediates, and then using clothes-irrelevant features of these intermediates to complete the matching. Secondly, in order to reduce the negative effect of low-quality intermediaries, an Intermediary-Based Feasibility Weighting (IBFW) module is designed to evaluate the feasibility of intermediary matching process by assessing the quality of intermediaries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on several widely-used clothes-changing re-id benchmarks.

Long-term Person Re-Identification (LRe-ID) aims at matching an individual across cameras after a long period of time, presenting variations in clothing, pose, and viewpoint. In this work, we propose CCPA: Contrastive Clothing and Pose Augmentation framework for LRe-ID. Beyond appearance, CCPA captures body shape information which is cloth-invariant using a Relation Graph Attention Network. Training a robust LRe-ID model requires a wide range of clothing variations and expensive cloth labeling, which is lacked in current LRe-ID datasets. To address this, we perform clothing and pose transfer across identities to generate images of more clothing variations and of different persons wearing similar clothing. The augmented batch of images serve as inputs to our proposed Fine-grained Contrastive Losses, which not only supervise the Re-ID model to learn discriminative person embeddings under long-term scenarios but also ensure in-distribution data generation. Results on LRe-ID datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our CCPA framework.

Cloth-changing person re-identification (CC-ReID) aims to match persons who change clothes over long periods. The key challenge in CC-ReID is to extract clothing-independent features, such as face, hairstyle, body shape, and gait. Current research mainly focuses on modeling body shape using multi-modal biological features (such as silhouettes and sketches). However, it does not fully leverage the personal description information hidden in the original RGB image. Considering that there are certain attribute descriptions which remain unchanged after the changing of cloth, we propose a Masked Attribute Description Embedding (MADE) method that unifies personal visual appearance and attribute description for CC-ReID. Specifically, handling variable clothing-sensitive information, such as color and type, is challenging for effective modeling. To address this, we mask the clothing and color information in the personal attribute description extracted through an attribute detection model. The masked attribute description is then connected and embedded into Transformer blocks at various levels, fusing it with the low-level to high-level features of the image. This approach compels the model to discard clothing information. Experiments are conducted on several CC-ReID benchmarks, including PRCC, LTCC, Celeb-reID-light, and LaST. Results demonstrate that MADE effectively utilizes attribute description, enhancing cloth-changing person re-identification performance, and compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/moon-wh/MADE.

Existing text-based person retrieval datasets often have relatively coarse-grained text annotations. This hinders the model to comprehend the fine-grained semantics of query texts in real scenarios. To address this problem, we contribute a new benchmark named UFineBench for text-based person retrieval with ultra-fine granularity. Firstly, we construct a new dataset named UFine6926. We collect a large number of person images and manually annotate each image with two detailed textual descriptions, averaging 80.8 words each. The average word count is three to four times that of the previous datasets. In addition of standard in-domain evaluation, we also propose a special evaluation paradigm more representative of real scenarios. It contains a new evaluation set with cross domains, cross textual granularity and cross textual styles, named UFine3C, and a new evaluation metric for accurately measuring retrieval ability, named mean Similarity Distribution (mSD). Moreover, we propose CFAM, a more efficient algorithm especially designed for text-based person retrieval with ultra fine-grained texts. It achieves fine granularity mining by adopting a shared cross-modal granularity decoder and hard negative match mechanism. With standard in-domain evaluation, CFAM establishes competitive performance across various datasets, especially on our ultra fine-grained UFine6926. Furthermore, by evaluating on UFine3C, we demonstrate that training on our UFine6926 significantly improves generalization to real scenarios compared with other coarse-grained datasets. The dataset and code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/Zplusdragon/UFineBench.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently emerged as an effective tool to assist individuals in writing various types of content, including professional documents such as recommendation letters. Though bringing convenience, this application also introduces unprecedented fairness concerns. Model-generated reference letters might be directly used by users in professional scenarios. If underlying biases exist in these model-constructed letters, using them without scrutinization could lead to direct societal harms, such as sabotaging application success rates for female applicants. In light of this pressing issue, it is imminent and necessary to comprehensively study fairness issues and associated harms in this real-world use case. In this paper, we critically examine gender biases in LLM-generated reference letters. Drawing inspiration from social science findings, we design evaluation methods to manifest biases through 2 dimensions: (1) biases in language style and (2) biases in lexical content. We further investigate the extent of bias propagation by analyzing the hallucination bias of models, a term that we define to be bias exacerbation in model-hallucinated contents. Through benchmarking evaluation on 2 popular LLMs- ChatGPT and Alpaca, we reveal significant gender biases in LLM-generated recommendation letters. Our findings not only warn against using LLMs for this application without scrutinization, but also illuminate the importance of thoroughly studying hidden biases and harms in LLM-generated professional documents.

Text-to-image person re-identification (TIReID) is a compelling topic in the cross-modal community, which aims to retrieve the target person based on a textual query. Although numerous TIReID methods have been proposed and achieved promising performance, they implicitly assume the training image-text pairs are correctly aligned, which is not always the case in real-world scenarios. In practice, the image-text pairs inevitably exist under-correlated or even false-correlated, a.k.a noisy correspondence (NC), due to the low quality of the images and annotation errors. To address this problem, we propose a novel Robust Dual Embedding method (RDE) that can learn robust visual-semantic associations even with NC. Specifically, RDE consists of two main components: 1) A Confident Consensus Division (CCD) module that leverages the dual-grained decisions of dual embedding modules to obtain a consensus set of clean training data, which enables the model to learn correct and reliable visual-semantic associations. 2) A Triplet-Alignment Loss (TAL) relaxes the conventional triplet-ranking loss with hardest negatives, which tends to rapidly overfit NC, to a log-exponential upper bound over all negatives, thus preventing the model from overemphasizing false image-text pairs. We conduct extensive experiments on three public benchmarks, namely CUHK-PEDES, ICFG-PEDES, and RSTPReID, to evaluate the performance and robustness of our RDE. Our method achieves state-of-the-art results both with and without synthetic noisy correspondences on all three datasets.

Domain generalization person re-identification (DG-ReID) aims to train a model on source domains and generalize well on unseen domains. Vision Transformer usually yields better generalization ability than common CNN networks under distribution shifts. However, Transformer-based ReID models inevitably over-fit to domain-specific biases due to the supervised learning strategy on the source domain. We observe that while the global images of different IDs should have different features, their similar local parts (e.g., black backpack) are not bounded by this constraint. Motivated by this, we propose a pure Transformer model (termed Part-aware Transformer) for DG-ReID by designing a proxy task, named Cross-ID Similarity Learning (CSL), to mine local visual information shared by different IDs. This proxy task allows the model to learn generic features because it only cares about the visual similarity of the parts regardless of the ID labels, thus alleviating the side effect of domain-specific biases. Based on the local similarity obtained in CSL, a Part-guided Self-Distillation (PSD) is proposed to further improve the generalization of global features. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance under most DG ReID settings. Under the MarkettoDuke setting, our method exceeds state-of-the-art by 10.9% and 12.8% in Rank1 and mAP, respectively. The code is available at https://github.com/liyuke65535/Part-Aware-Transformer.

Location determination finds wide applications in daily life. Instead of existing efforts devoted to localizing tourist photos captured by perspective cameras, in this article, we focus on devising person positioning solutions using overhead fisheye cameras. Such solutions are advantageous in large field of view (FOV), low cost, anti-occlusion, and unaggressive work mode (without the necessity of cameras carried by persons). However, related studies are quite scarce, due to the paucity of data. To stimulate research in this exciting area, we present LOAF, the first large-scale overhead fisheye dataset for person detection and localization. LOAF is built with many essential features, e.g., i) the data cover abundant diversities in scenes, human pose, density, and location; ii) it contains currently the largest number of annotated pedestrian, i.e., 457K bounding boxes with groundtruth location information; iii) the body-boxes are labeled as radius-aligned so as to fully address the positioning challenge. To approach localization, we build a fisheye person detection network, which exploits the fisheye distortions by a rotation-equivariant training strategy and predict radius-aligned human boxes end-to-end. Then, the actual locations of the detected persons are calculated by a numerical solution on the fisheye model and camera altitude data. Extensive experiments on LOAF validate the superiority of our fisheye detector w.r.t. previous methods, and show that our whole fisheye positioning solution is able to locate all persons in FOV with an accuracy of 0.5 m, within 0.1 s.

This paper aims to deal with the ignored real-world complexities in prior work on human motion forecasting, emphasizing the social properties of multi-person motion, the diversity of motion and social interactions, and the complexity of articulated motion. To this end, we introduce a novel task of stochastic multi-person 3D motion forecasting. We propose a dual-level generative modeling framework that separately models independent individual motion at the local level and social interactions at the global level. Notably, this dual-level modeling mechanism can be achieved within a shared generative model, through introducing learnable latent codes that represent intents of future motion and switching the codes' modes of operation at different levels. Our framework is general; we instantiate it with different generative models, including generative adversarial networks and diffusion models, and various multi-person forecasting models. Extensive experiments on CMU-Mocap, MuPoTS-3D, and SoMoF benchmarks show that our approach produces diverse and accurate multi-person predictions, significantly outperforming the state of the art.

Text-to-image person retrieval aims to identify the target person based on a given textual description query. The primary challenge is to learn the mapping of visual and textual modalities into a common latent space. Prior works have attempted to address this challenge by leveraging separately pre-trained unimodal models to extract visual and textual features. However, these approaches lack the necessary underlying alignment capabilities required to match multimodal data effectively. Besides, these works use prior information to explore explicit part alignments, which may lead to the distortion of intra-modality information. To alleviate these issues, we present IRRA: a cross-modal Implicit Relation Reasoning and Aligning framework that learns relations between local visual-textual tokens and enhances global image-text matching without requiring additional prior supervision. Specifically, we first design an Implicit Relation Reasoning module in a masked language modeling paradigm. This achieves cross-modal interaction by integrating the visual cues into the textual tokens with a cross-modal multimodal interaction encoder. Secondly, to globally align the visual and textual embeddings, Similarity Distribution Matching is proposed to minimize the KL divergence between image-text similarity distributions and the normalized label matching distributions. The proposed method achieves new state-of-the-art results on all three public datasets, with a notable margin of about 3%-9% for Rank-1 accuracy compared to prior methods.

Weakly supervised person search aims to jointly detect and match persons with only bounding box annotations. Existing approaches typically focus on improving the features by exploring relations of persons. However, scale variation problem is a more severe obstacle and under-studied that a person often owns images with different scales (resolutions). On the one hand, small-scale images contain less information of a person, thus affecting the accuracy of the generated pseudo labels. On the other hand, the similarity of cross-scale images is often smaller than that of images with the same scale for a person, which will increase the difficulty of matching. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a novel one-step framework, named Self-similarity driven Scale-invariant Learning (SSL). Scale invariance can be explored based on the self-similarity prior that it shows the same statistical properties of an image at different scales. To this end, we introduce a Multi-scale Exemplar Branch to guide the network in concentrating on the foreground and learning scale-invariant features by hard exemplars mining. To enhance the discriminative power of the features in an unsupervised manner, we introduce a dynamic multi-label prediction which progressively seeks true labels for training. It is adaptable to different types of unlabeled data and serves as a compensation for clustering based strategy. Experiments on PRW and CUHK-SYSU databases demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Existing head pose estimation (HPE) mainly focuses on single person with pre-detected frontal heads, which limits their applications in real complex scenarios with multi-persons. We argue that these single HPE methods are fragile and inefficient for Multi-Person Head Pose Estimation (MPHPE) since they rely on the separately trained face detector that cannot generalize well to full viewpoints, especially for heads with invisible face areas. In this paper, we focus on the full-range MPHPE problem, and propose a direct end-to-end simple baseline named DirectMHP. Due to the lack of datasets applicable to the full-range MPHPE, we firstly construct two benchmarks by extracting ground-truth labels for head detection and head orientation from public datasets AGORA and CMU Panoptic. They are rather challenging for having many truncated, occluded, tiny and unevenly illuminated human heads. Then, we design a novel end-to-end trainable one-stage network architecture by joint regressing locations and orientations of multi-head to address the MPHPE problem. Specifically, we regard pose as an auxiliary attribute of the head, and append it after the traditional object prediction. Arbitrary pose representation such as Euler angles is acceptable by this flexible design. Then, we jointly optimize these two tasks by sharing features and utilizing appropriate multiple losses. In this way, our method can implicitly benefit from more surroundings to improve HPE accuracy while maintaining head detection performance. We present comprehensive comparisons with state-of-the-art single HPE methods on public benchmarks, as well as superior baseline results on our constructed MPHPE datasets. Datasets and code are released in https://github.com/hnuzhy/DirectMHP.

Accurate whole-body multi-person pose estimation and tracking is an important yet challenging topic in computer vision. To capture the subtle actions of humans for complex behavior analysis, whole-body pose estimation including the face, body, hand and foot is essential over conventional body-only pose estimation. In this paper, we present AlphaPose, a system that can perform accurate whole-body pose estimation and tracking jointly while running in realtime. To this end, we propose several new techniques: Symmetric Integral Keypoint Regression (SIKR) for fast and fine localization, Parametric Pose Non-Maximum-Suppression (P-NMS) for eliminating redundant human detections and Pose Aware Identity Embedding for jointly pose estimation and tracking. During training, we resort to Part-Guided Proposal Generator (PGPG) and multi-domain knowledge distillation to further improve the accuracy. Our method is able to localize whole-body keypoints accurately and tracks humans simultaneously given inaccurate bounding boxes and redundant detections. We show a significant improvement over current state-of-the-art methods in both speed and accuracy on COCO-wholebody, COCO, PoseTrack, and our proposed Halpe-FullBody pose estimation dataset. Our model, source codes and dataset are made publicly available at https://github.com/MVIG-SJTU/AlphaPose.

Human body orientation estimation (HBOE) is widely applied into various applications, including robotics, surveillance, pedestrian analysis and autonomous driving. Although many approaches have been addressing the HBOE problem from specific under-controlled scenes to challenging in-the-wild environments, they assume human instances are already detected and take a well cropped sub-image as the input. This setting is less efficient and prone to errors in real application, such as crowds of people. In the paper, we propose a single-stage end-to-end trainable framework for tackling the HBOE problem with multi-persons. By integrating the prediction of bounding boxes and direction angles in one embedding, our method can jointly estimate the location and orientation of all bodies in one image directly. Our key idea is to integrate the HBOE task into the multi-scale anchor channel predictions of persons for concurrently benefiting from engaged intermediate features. Therefore, our approach can naturally adapt to difficult instances involving low resolution and occlusion as in object detection. We validated the efficiency and effectiveness of our method in the recently presented benchmark MEBOW with extensive experiments. Besides, we completed ambiguous instances ignored by the MEBOW dataset, and provided corresponding weak body-orientation labels to keep the integrity and consistency of it for supporting studies toward multi-persons. Our work is available at https://github.com/hnuzhy/JointBDOE.

Spatio-temporal action detection is an important and challenging problem in video understanding. The existing action detection benchmarks are limited in aspects of small numbers of instances in a trimmed video or low-level atomic actions. This paper aims to present a new multi-person dataset of spatio-temporal localized sports actions, coined as MultiSports. We first analyze the important ingredients of constructing a realistic and challenging dataset for spatio-temporal action detection by proposing three criteria: (1) multi-person scenes and motion dependent identification, (2) with well-defined boundaries, (3) relatively fine-grained classes of high complexity. Based on these guide-lines, we build the dataset of MultiSports v1.0 by selecting 4 sports classes, collecting 3200 video clips, and annotating 37701 action instances with 902k bounding boxes. Our datasets are characterized with important properties of high diversity, dense annotation, and high quality. Our Multi-Sports, with its realistic setting and detailed annotations, exposes the intrinsic challenges of spatio-temporal action detection. To benchmark this, we adapt several baseline methods to our dataset and give an in-depth analysis on the action detection results in our dataset. We hope our MultiSports can serve as a standard benchmark for spatio-temporal action detection in the future. Our dataset website is at https://deeperaction.github.io/multisports/.

An effective person re-identification (re-ID) model should learn feature representations that are both discriminative, for distinguishing similar-looking people, and generalisable, for deployment across datasets without any adaptation. In this paper, we develop novel CNN architectures to address both challenges. First, we present a re-ID CNN termed omni-scale network (OSNet) to learn features that not only capture different spatial scales but also encapsulate a synergistic combination of multiple scales, namely omni-scale features. The basic building block consists of multiple convolutional streams, each detecting features at a certain scale. For omni-scale feature learning, a unified aggregation gate is introduced to dynamically fuse multi-scale features with channel-wise weights. OSNet is lightweight as its building blocks comprise factorised convolutions. Second, to improve generalisable feature learning, we introduce instance normalisation (IN) layers into OSNet to cope with cross-dataset discrepancies. Further, to determine the optimal placements of these IN layers in the architecture, we formulate an efficient differentiable architecture search algorithm. Extensive experiments show that, in the conventional same-dataset setting, OSNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, despite being much smaller than existing re-ID models. In the more challenging yet practical cross-dataset setting, OSNet beats most recent unsupervised domain adaptation methods without using any target data. Our code and models are released at https://github.com/KaiyangZhou/deep-person-reid.

We present a real-time approach for multi-person 3D motion capture at over 30 fps using a single RGB camera. It operates successfully in generic scenes which may contain occlusions by objects and by other people. Our method operates in subsequent stages. The first stage is a convolutional neural network (CNN) that estimates 2D and 3D pose features along with identity assignments for all visible joints of all individuals.We contribute a new architecture for this CNN, called SelecSLS Net, that uses novel selective long and short range skip connections to improve the information flow allowing for a drastically faster network without compromising accuracy. In the second stage, a fully connected neural network turns the possibly partial (on account of occlusion) 2Dpose and 3Dpose features for each subject into a complete 3Dpose estimate per individual. The third stage applies space-time skeletal model fitting to the predicted 2D and 3D pose per subject to further reconcile the 2D and 3D pose, and enforce temporal coherence. Our method returns the full skeletal pose in joint angles for each subject. This is a further key distinction from previous work that do not produce joint angle results of a coherent skeleton in real time for multi-person scenes. The proposed system runs on consumer hardware at a previously unseen speed of more than 30 fps given 512x320 images as input while achieving state-of-the-art accuracy, which we will demonstrate on a range of challenging real-world scenes.

Human parsing and pose estimation have recently received considerable interest due to their substantial application potentials. However, the existing datasets have limited numbers of images and annotations and lack a variety of human appearances and coverage of challenging cases in unconstrained environments. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark named "Look into Person (LIP)" that provides a significant advancement in terms of scalability, diversity, and difficulty, which are crucial for future developments in human-centric analysis. This comprehensive dataset contains over 50,000 elaborately annotated images with 19 semantic part labels and 16 body joints, which are captured from a broad range of viewpoints, occlusions, and background complexities. Using these rich annotations, we perform detailed analyses of the leading human parsing and pose estimation approaches, thereby obtaining insights into the successes and failures of these methods. To further explore and take advantage of the semantic correlation of these two tasks, we propose a novel joint human parsing and pose estimation network to explore efficient context modeling, which can simultaneously predict parsing and pose with extremely high quality. Furthermore, we simplify the network to solve human parsing by exploring a novel self-supervised structure-sensitive learning approach, which imposes human pose structures into the parsing results without resorting to extra supervision. The dataset, code and models are available at http://www.sysu-hcp.net/lip/.

We present an approach to efficiently detect the 2D pose of multiple people in an image. The approach uses a nonparametric representation, which we refer to as Part Affinity Fields (PAFs), to learn to associate body parts with individuals in the image. The architecture encodes global context, allowing a greedy bottom-up parsing step that maintains high accuracy while achieving realtime performance, irrespective of the number of people in the image. The architecture is designed to jointly learn part locations and their association via two branches of the same sequential prediction process. Our method placed first in the inaugural COCO 2016 keypoints challenge, and significantly exceeds the previous state-of-the-art result on the MPII Multi-Person benchmark, both in performance and efficiency.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

MPI derived datatypes are an abstraction that simplifies handling of non-contiguous data in MPI applications. These datatypes are recursively constructed at runtime from primitive Named Types defined in the MPI standard. More recently, the development and deployment of CUDA-aware MPI implementations has encouraged the transition of distributed high-performance MPI codes to use GPUs. Such implementations allow MPI functions to directly operate on GPU buffers, easing integration of GPU compute into MPI codes. This work first presents a novel datatype handling strategy for nested strided datatypes, which finds a middle ground between the specialized or generic handling in prior work. This work also shows that the performance characteristics of non-contiguous data handling can be modeled with empirical system measurements, and used to transparently improve MPI_Send/Recv latency. Finally, despite substantial attention to non-contiguous GPU data and CUDA-aware MPI implementations, good performance cannot be taken for granted. This work demonstrates its contributions through an MPI interposer library, TEMPI. TEMPI can be used with existing MPI deployments without system or application changes. Ultimately, the interposed-library model of this work demonstrates MPI_Pack speedup of up to 242000x and MPI_Send speedup of up to 59000x compared to the MPI implementation deployed on a leadership-class supercomputer. This yields speedup of more than 917x in a 3D halo exchange with 3072 processes.

This is the 1st part of the dissertation for my master degree and compares the power consumption using the default floating point (32bit) and Nvidia mixed precision (16bit and 32bit) while training a classification ML model. A custom PC with specific hardware was built to perform the experiments, and different ML hyper-parameters, such as batch size, neurons, and epochs, were chosen to build Deep Neural Networks (DNN). Additionally, various software was used during the experiments to collect the power consumption data in Watts from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and manually from a wattmeter connected to the wall. A benchmarking test with default hyper parameter values for the DNN was used as a reference, while the experiments used a combination of different settings. The results were recorded in Excel, and descriptive statistics were chosen to calculate the mean between the groups and compare them using graphs and tables. The outcome was positive when using mixed precision combined with specific hyper-parameters. Compared to the benchmarking, the optimisation for the classification reduced the power consumption between 7 and 11 Watts. Similarly, the carbon footprint is reduced because the calculation uses the same power consumption data. Still, a consideration is required when configuring hyper-parameters because it can negatively affect hardware performance. However, this research required inferential statistics, specifically ANOVA and T-test, to compare the relationship between the means. Furthermore, tests indicated no statistical significance of the relationship between the benchmarking and experiments. However, a more extensive implementation with a cluster of GPUs can increase the sample size significantly, as it is an essential factor and can change the outcome of the statistical analysis.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

We consider the problem of graph matching, or learning vertex correspondence, between two correlated stochastic block models (SBMs). The graph matching problem arises in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing and bioinformatics, and in particular, matching graphs with inherent community structure has significance related to de-anonymization of correlated social networks. Compared to the correlated Erdos-Renyi (ER) model, where various efficient algorithms have been developed, among which a few algorithms have been proven to achieve the exact matching with constant edge correlation, no low-order polynomial algorithm has been known to achieve exact matching for the correlated SBMs with constant correlation. In this work, we propose an efficient algorithm for matching graphs with community structure, based on the comparison between partition trees rooted from each vertex, by extending the idea of Mao et al. (2021) to graphs with communities. The partition tree divides the large neighborhoods of each vertex into disjoint subsets using their edge statistics to different communities. Our algorithm is the first low-order polynomial-time algorithm achieving exact matching between two correlated SBMs with high probability in dense graphs.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

The success of contrastive language-image pretraining (CLIP) relies on the supervision from the pairing between images and captions, which tends to be noisy in web-crawled data. We present Mixture of Data Experts (MoDE) and learn a system of CLIP data experts via clustering. Each data expert is trained on one data cluster, being less sensitive to false negative noises in other clusters. At inference time, we ensemble their outputs by applying weights determined through the correlation between task metadata and cluster conditions. To estimate the correlation precisely, the samples in one cluster should be semantically similar, but the number of data experts should still be reasonable for training and inference. As such, we consider the ontology in human language and propose to use fine-grained cluster centers to represent each data expert at a coarse-grained level. Experimental studies show that four CLIP data experts on ViT-B/16 outperform the ViT-L/14 by OpenAI CLIP and OpenCLIP on zero-shot image classification but with less (<35\%) training cost. Meanwhile, MoDE can train all data expert asynchronously and can flexibly include new data experts. The code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/MetaCLIP/tree/main/mode.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Supervised learning datasets may contain multiple cues that explain the training set equally well, i.e., learning any of them would lead to the correct predictions on the training data. However, many of them can be spurious, i.e., lose their predictive power under a distribution shift and consequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently developed "diversification" methods (Lee et al., 2023; Pagliardini et al., 2023) approach this problem by finding multiple diverse hypotheses that rely on different features. This paper aims to study this class of methods and identify the key components contributing to their OOD generalization abilities. We show that (1) diversification methods are highly sensitive to the distribution of the unlabeled data used for diversification and can underperform significantly when away from a method-specific sweet spot. (2) Diversification alone is insufficient for OOD generalization. The choice of the used learning algorithm, e.g., the model's architecture and pretraining, is crucial. In standard experiments (classification on Waterbirds and Office-Home datasets), using the second-best choice leads to an up to 20\% absolute drop in accuracy. (3) The optimal choice of learning algorithm depends on the unlabeled data and vice versa i.e. they are co-dependent. (4) Finally, we show that, in practice, the above pitfalls cannot be alleviated by increasing the number of diverse hypotheses, the major feature of diversification methods. These findings provide a clearer understanding of the critical design factors influencing the OOD generalization abilities of diversification methods. They can guide practitioners in how to use the existing methods best and guide researchers in developing new, better ones.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

In contemporary society, widespread social media usage is evident in people's daily lives. Nevertheless, disparities in emotional expressions between the real world and online platforms can manifest. We comprehensively analyzed Persian community on X to explore this phenomenon. An innovative pipeline was designed to measure the similarity between emotions in the real world compared to social media. Accordingly, recent tweets and images of participants were gathered and analyzed using Transformers-based text and image sentiment analysis modules. Each participant's friends also provided insights into the their real-world emotions. A distance criterion was used to compare real-world feelings with virtual experiences. Our study encompassed N=105 participants, 393 friends who contributed their perspectives, over 8,300 collected tweets, and 2,000 media images. Results indicated a 28.67% similarity between images and real-world emotions, while tweets exhibited a 75.88% alignment with real-world feelings. Additionally, the statistical significance confirmed that the observed disparities in sentiment proportions.

There is a candidate electromagnetic counterpart to the binary black hole merger GW190521, identified as ZTF19abanrhr within AGN J124942.3 + 344929. Additionally, GW190514 is proposed as a plausible precursor merger to GW190521 within a hierarchical merger scenario. In this study, we investigate the potential association between GW190514 and GW190521 as a hierarchical triple merger associated with ZTF19abanrhr, taking into account of sky position, distance, and mass of the sources using a Bayesian criterion. Our analysis reveals that the association is favored over a random coincidence, with a log Bayes factor of 16.8, corresponding to an odds ratio of sim199:1, assuming an astrophysical prior odds of 10^{-5}. Notably, when accounting for the primary masses of the two gravitational wave events as potential products of mergers in the AGN formation channel, the Bayes factor increases significantly, further enhancing the preference for this association by a factor of sim10^2, corresponding to a log Bayes factor of 21.5 and an odds ratio of sim2times10^4:1. Our results suggest strong evidence for the first hierarchical triple merger associated with an electromagnetic counterpart in the AGN formation channel. This work is crucial for understanding the formation mechanisms of massive black holes, the role of AGNs in hierarchical mergers, and the implications of multi-messenger astronomy.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during 1992-2023 and concerning the application of causal inference to banking, finance, and insurance. The papers are categorized according to the following families of domains: (i) Banking, (ii) Finance and its subdomains such as corporate finance, governance finance including financial risk and financial policy, financial economics, and Behavioral finance, and (iii) Insurance. Further, the paper covers the primary ingredients of causal inference namely, statistical methods such as Bayesian Causal Network, Granger Causality and jargon used thereof such as counterfactuals. The review also recommends some important directions for future research. In conclusion, we observed that the application of causal inference in the banking and insurance sectors is still in its infancy, and thus more research is possible to turn it into a viable method.

We present lambeq, the first high-level Python library for Quantum Natural Language Processing (QNLP). The open-source toolkit offers a detailed hierarchy of modules and classes implementing all stages of a pipeline for converting sentences to string diagrams, tensor networks, and quantum circuits ready to be used on a quantum computer. lambeq supports syntactic parsing, rewriting and simplification of string diagrams, ansatz creation and manipulation, as well as a number of compositional models for preparing quantum-friendly representations of sentences, employing various degrees of syntax sensitivity. We present the generic architecture and describe the most important modules in detail, demonstrating the usage with illustrative examples. Further, we test the toolkit in practice by using it to perform a number of experiments on simple NLP tasks, implementing both classical and quantum pipelines.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

We describe recent research on the use of actual causality in the definition of responsibility scores as explanations for query answers in databases, and for outcomes from classification models in machine learning. In the case of databases, useful connections with database repairs are illustrated and exploited. Repairs are also used to give a quantitative measure of the consistency of a database. For classification models, the responsibility score is properly extended and illustrated. The efficient computation of Shap-score is also analyzed and discussed. The emphasis is placed on work done by the author and collaborators.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

This paper introduces Fortune Analytics Language Model (FALM). FALM empowers users with direct access to comprehensive business analysis, including market trends, company performance metrics, and expert insights. Unlike generic LLMs, FALM leverages a curated knowledge base built from professional journalism, enabling it to deliver precise and in-depth answers to intricate business questions. Users can further leverage natural language queries to directly visualize financial data, generating insightful charts and graphs to understand trends across diverse business sectors clearly. FALM fosters user trust and ensures output accuracy through three novel methods: 1) Time-aware reasoning guarantees accurate event registration and prioritizes recent updates. 2) Thematic trend analysis explicitly examines topic evolution over time, providing insights into emerging business landscapes. 3) Content referencing and task decomposition enhance answer fidelity and data visualization accuracy. We conduct both automated and human evaluations, demonstrating FALM's significant performance improvements over baseline methods while prioritizing responsible AI practices. These benchmarks establish FALM as a cutting-edge LLM in the business and media domains, with exceptional accuracy and trustworthiness.

We present the first systematic investigation of supervised scaling laws outside of an ImageNet-like context - on images of galaxies. We use 840k galaxy images and over 100M annotations by Galaxy Zoo volunteers, comparable in scale to Imagenet-1K. We find that adding annotated galaxy images provides a power law improvement in performance across all architectures and all tasks, while adding trainable parameters is effective only for some (typically more subjectively challenging) tasks. We then compare the downstream performance of finetuned models pretrained on either ImageNet-12k alone vs. additionally pretrained on our galaxy images. We achieve an average relative error rate reduction of 31% across 5 downstream tasks of scientific interest. Our finetuned models are more label-efficient and, unlike their ImageNet-12k-pretrained equivalents, often achieve linear transfer performance equal to that of end-to-end finetuning. We find relatively modest additional downstream benefits from scaling model size, implying that scaling alone is not sufficient to address our domain gap, and suggest that practitioners with qualitatively different images might benefit more from in-domain adaption followed by targeted downstream labelling.

Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC) aims to assign the most relevant labels to each given text. Existing methods demonstrate that label dependency can help to improve the model's performance. However, the introduction of label dependency may cause the model to suffer from unwanted prediction bias. In this study, we attribute the bias to the model's misuse of label dependency, i.e., the model tends to utilize the correlation shortcut in label dependency rather than fusing text information and label dependency for prediction. Motivated by causal inference, we propose a CounterFactual Text Classifier (CFTC) to eliminate the correlation bias, and make causality-based predictions. Specifically, our CFTC first adopts the predict-then-modify backbone to extract precise label information embedded in label dependency, then blocks the correlation shortcut through the counterfactual de-bias technique with the help of the human causal graph. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that our CFTC significantly outperforms the baselines and effectively eliminates the correlation bias in datasets.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Causal discovery with latent confounders is an important but challenging task in many scientific areas. Despite the success of some overcomplete independent component analysis (OICA) based methods in certain domains, they are computationally expensive and can easily get stuck into local optima. We notice that interestingly, by making use of higher-order cumulants, there exists a closed-form solution to OICA in specific cases, e.g., when the mixing procedure follows the One-Latent-Component structure. In light of the power of the closed-form solution to OICA corresponding to the One-Latent-Component structure, we formulate a way to estimate the mixing matrix using the higher-order cumulants, and further propose the testable One-Latent-Component condition to identify the latent variables and determine causal orders. By iteratively removing the share identified latent components, we successfully extend the results on the One-Latent-Component structure to the Multi-Latent-Component structure and finally provide a practical and asymptotically correct algorithm to learn the causal structure with latent variables. Experimental results illustrate the asymptotic correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

The relationship between professional skills and higher education programs is modeled as a non-directed bipartite network with binary entries representing the links between 28 skills (as captured by the occupational information network, O*NET) and 258 graduate program summaries (as captured by commercial brochures of graduate programs in marketing with accreditation standards of the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business). While descriptive analysis for skills suggests a qualitative lack of alignment between the job demands captured by O*NET, inferential analyses based on exponential random graph model estimates show that skills' popularity and homophily coexist with a systematic yet weak alignment to job demands for marketing managers.

Graph structure learning aims to learn connectivity in a graph from data. It is particularly important for many computer vision related tasks since no explicit graph structure is available for images for most cases. A natural way to construct a graph among images is to treat each image as a node and assign pairwise image similarities as weights to corresponding edges. It is well known that pairwise similarities between images are sensitive to the noise in feature representations, leading to unreliable graph structures. We address this problem from the viewpoint of statistical tests. By viewing the feature vector of each node as an independent sample, the decision of whether creating an edge between two nodes based on their similarity in feature representation can be thought as a {it single} statistical test. To improve the robustness in the decision of creating an edge, multiple samples are drawn and integrated by {it multiple} statistical tests to generate a more reliable similarity measure, consequentially more reliable graph structure. The corresponding elegant matrix form named B-Attention is designed for efficiency. The effectiveness of multiple tests for graph structure learning is verified both theoretically and empirically on multiple clustering and ReID benchmark datasets. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Thomas-wyh/B-Attention.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Detecting implicit causal relations in texts is a task that requires both common sense and world knowledge. Existing datasets are focused either on commonsense causal reasoning or explicit causal relations. In this work, we present HeadlineCause, a dataset for detecting implicit causal relations between pairs of news headlines. The dataset includes over 5000 headline pairs from English news and over 9000 headline pairs from Russian news labeled through crowdsourcing. The pairs vary from totally unrelated or belonging to the same general topic to the ones including causation and refutation relations. We also present a set of models and experiments that demonstrates the dataset validity, including a multilingual XLM-RoBERTa based model for causality detection and a GPT-2 based model for possible effects prediction.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Posing reading comprehension as a generation problem provides a great deal of flexibility, allowing for open-ended questions with few restrictions on possible answers. However, progress is impeded by existing generation metrics, which rely on token overlap and are agnostic to the nuances of reading comprehension. To address this, we introduce a benchmark for training and evaluating generative reading comprehension metrics: MOdeling Correctness with Human Annotations. MOCHA contains 40K human judgement scores on model outputs from 6 diverse question answering datasets and an additional set of minimal pairs for evaluation. Using MOCHA, we train a Learned Evaluation metric for Reading Comprehension, LERC, to mimic human judgement scores. LERC outperforms baseline metrics by 10 to 36 absolute Pearson points on held-out annotations. When we evaluate robustness on minimal pairs, LERC achieves 80% accuracy, outperforming baselines by 14 to 26 absolute percentage points while leaving significant room for improvement. MOCHA presents a challenging problem for developing accurate and robust generative reading comprehension metrics.

A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.

Vision-language generative reward models (VL-GenRMs) play a crucial role in aligning and evaluating multimodal AI systems, yet their own evaluation remains under-explored. Current assessment methods primarily rely on AI-annotated preference labels from traditional VL tasks, which can introduce biases and often fail to effectively challenge state-of-the-art models. To address these limitations, we introduce VL-RewardBench, a comprehensive benchmark spanning general multimodal queries, visual hallucination detection, and complex reasoning tasks. Through our AI-assisted annotation pipeline combining sample selection with human verification, we curate 1,250 high-quality examples specifically designed to probe model limitations. Comprehensive evaluation across 16 leading large vision-language models, demonstrates VL-RewardBench's effectiveness as a challenging testbed, where even GPT-4o achieves only 65.4% accuracy, and state-of-the-art open-source models such as Qwen2-VL-72B, struggle to surpass random-guessing. Importantly, performance on VL-RewardBench strongly correlates (Pearson's r > 0.9) with MMMU-Pro accuracy using Best-of-N sampling with VL-GenRMs. Analysis experiments uncover three critical insights for improving VL-GenRMs: (i) models predominantly fail at basic visual perception tasks rather than reasoning tasks; (ii) inference-time scaling benefits vary dramatically by model capacity; and (iii) training VL-GenRMs to learn to judge substantially boosts judgment capability (+14.7% accuracy for a 7B VL-GenRM). We believe VL-RewardBench along with the experimental insights will become a valuable resource for advancing VL-GenRMs.

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's r^2) relative to baselines that use nearest neighbors or use information directly from the prompt, and performance equal to or exceeding satellite-based benchmarks in the literature. With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19% and 51% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

The study of provable adversarial robustness for deep neural networks (DNNs) has mainly focused on static supervised learning tasks such as image classification. However, DNNs have been used extensively in real-world adaptive tasks such as reinforcement learning (RL), making such systems vulnerable to adversarial attacks as well. Prior works in provable robustness in RL seek to certify the behaviour of the victim policy at every time-step against a non-adaptive adversary using methods developed for the static setting. But in the real world, an RL adversary can infer the defense strategy used by the victim agent by observing the states, actions, etc., from previous time-steps and adapt itself to produce stronger attacks in future steps. We present an efficient procedure, designed specifically to defend against an adaptive RL adversary, that can directly certify the total reward without requiring the policy to be robust at each time-step. Our main theoretical contribution is to prove an adaptive version of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma -- a key lemma for smoothing-based certificates -- where the adversarial perturbation at a particular time can be a stochastic function of current and previous observations and states as well as previous actions. Building on this result, we propose policy smoothing where the agent adds a Gaussian noise to its observation at each time-step before passing it through the policy function. Our robustness certificates guarantee that the final total reward obtained by policy smoothing remains above a certain threshold, even though the actions at intermediate time-steps may change under the attack. Our experiments on various environments like Cartpole, Pong, Freeway and Mountain Car show that our method can yield meaningful robustness guarantees in practice.