Daily Papers

The systematic evaluation and understanding of computer vision models under varying conditions require large amounts of data with comprehensive and customized labels, which real-world vision datasets rarely satisfy. While current synthetic data generators offer a promising alternative, particularly for embodied AI tasks, they often fall short for computer vision tasks due to low asset and rendering quality, limited diversity, and unrealistic physical properties. We introduce the BEHAVIOR Vision Suite (BVS), a set of tools and assets to generate fully customized synthetic data for systematic evaluation of computer vision models, based on the newly developed embodied AI benchmark, BEHAVIOR-1K. BVS supports a large number of adjustable parameters at the scene level (e.g., lighting, object placement), the object level (e.g., joint configuration, attributes such as "filled" and "folded"), and the camera level (e.g., field of view, focal length). Researchers can arbitrarily vary these parameters during data generation to perform controlled experiments. We showcase three example application scenarios: systematically evaluating the robustness of models across different continuous axes of domain shift, evaluating scene understanding models on the same set of images, and training and evaluating simulation-to-real transfer for a novel vision task: unary and binary state prediction. Project website: https://behavior-vision-suite.github.io/

Vulnerability prediction is valuable in identifying security issues more efficiently, even though it requires the source code of the target software system, which is a restrictive hypothesis. This paper presents an experimental study to predict vulnerabilities in binary code without source code or complex representations of the binary, leveraging the pivotal idea of decompiling the binary file through neural decompilation and predicting vulnerabilities through deep learning on the decompiled source code. The results outperform the state-of-the-art in both neural decompilation and vulnerability prediction, showing that it is possible to identify vulnerable programs with this approach concerning bi-class (vulnerable/non-vulnerable) and multi-class (type of vulnerability) analysis.

A significant gap remains between today's visual pattern recognition models and human-level visual cognition especially when it comes to few-shot learning and compositional reasoning of novel concepts. We introduce Bongard-HOI, a new visual reasoning benchmark that focuses on compositional learning of human-object interactions (HOIs) from natural images. It is inspired by two desirable characteristics from the classical Bongard problems (BPs): 1) few-shot concept learning, and 2) context-dependent reasoning. We carefully curate the few-shot instances with hard negatives, where positive and negative images only disagree on action labels, making mere recognition of object categories insufficient to complete our benchmarks. We also design multiple test sets to systematically study the generalization of visual learning models, where we vary the overlap of the HOI concepts between the training and test sets of few-shot instances, from partial to no overlaps. Bongard-HOI presents a substantial challenge to today's visual recognition models. The state-of-the-art HOI detection model achieves only 62% accuracy on few-shot binary prediction while even amateur human testers on MTurk have 91% accuracy. With the Bongard-HOI benchmark, we hope to further advance research efforts in visual reasoning, especially in holistic perception-reasoning systems and better representation learning.

In recent years, hate speech has gained great relevance in social networks and other virtual media because of its intensity and its relationship with violent acts against members of protected groups. Due to the great amount of content generated by users, great effort has been made in the research and development of automatic tools to aid the analysis and moderation of this speech, at least in its most threatening forms. One of the limitations of current approaches to automatic hate speech detection is the lack of context. Most studies and resources are performed on data without context; that is, isolated messages without any type of conversational context or the topic being discussed. This restricts the available information to define if a post on a social network is hateful or not. In this work, we provide a novel corpus for contextualized hate speech detection based on user responses to news posts from media outlets on Twitter. This corpus was collected in the Rioplatense dialectal variety of Spanish and focuses on hate speech associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Classification experiments using state-of-the-art techniques show evidence that adding contextual information improves hate speech detection performance for two proposed tasks (binary and multi-label prediction). We make our code, models, and corpus available for further research.

The success of self-supervised learning in computer vision and natural language processing has motivated pretraining methods on tabular data. However, most existing tabular self-supervised learning models fail to leverage information across multiple data tables and cannot generalize to new tables. In this work, we introduce XTab, a framework for cross-table pretraining of tabular transformers on datasets from various domains. We address the challenge of inconsistent column types and quantities among tables by utilizing independent featurizers and using federated learning to pretrain the shared component. Tested on 84 tabular prediction tasks from the OpenML-AutoML Benchmark (AMLB), we show that (1) XTab consistently boosts the generalizability, learning speed, and performance of multiple tabular transformers, (2) by pretraining FT-Transformer via XTab, we achieve superior performance than other state-of-the-art tabular deep learning models on various tasks such as regression, binary, and multiclass classification.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Traditional deep learning often overlooks bytes, the basic units of the digital world, where all forms of information and operations are encoded and manipulated in binary format. Inspired by the success of next token prediction in natural language processing, we introduce bGPT, a model with next byte prediction to simulate the digital world. bGPT matches specialized models in performance across various modalities, including text, audio, and images, and offers new possibilities for predicting, simulating, and diagnosing algorithm or hardware behaviour. It has almost flawlessly replicated the process of converting symbolic music data, achieving a low error rate of 0.0011 bits per byte in converting ABC notation to MIDI format. In addition, bGPT demonstrates exceptional capabilities in simulating CPU behaviour, with an accuracy exceeding 99.99% in executing various operations. Leveraging next byte prediction, models like bGPT can directly learn from vast binary data, effectively simulating the intricate patterns of the digital world.

Recently, binary representation has been proposed as a novel representation that lies between continuous and discrete representations. It exhibits considerable information-preserving capability when being used to replace continuous input vectors. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of further introducing it to the output side, aiming to allow models to output binary labels instead. To preserve the structural information on the output side along with label information, we extend the previous contrastive hashing method as structured contrastive hashing. More specifically, we upgrade CKY from label-level to bit-level, define a new similarity function with span marginal probabilities, and introduce a novel contrastive loss function with a carefully designed instance selection strategy. Our model achieves competitive performance on various structured prediction tasks, and demonstrates that binary representation can be considered a novel representation that further bridges the gap between the continuous nature of deep learning and the discrete intrinsic property of natural languages.

Binary Neural Network (BNN) represents convolution weights with 1-bit values, which enhances the efficiency of storage and computation. This paper is motivated by a previously revealed phenomenon that the binary kernels in successful BNNs are nearly power-law distributed: their values are mostly clustered into a small number of codewords. This phenomenon encourages us to compact typical BNNs and obtain further close performance through learning non-repetitive kernels within a binary kernel subspace. Specifically, we regard the binarization process as kernel grouping in terms of a binary codebook, and our task lies in learning to select a smaller subset of codewords from the full codebook. We then leverage the Gumbel-Sinkhorn technique to approximate the codeword selection process, and develop the Permutation Straight-Through Estimator (PSTE) that is able to not only optimize the selection process end-to-end but also maintain the non-repetitive occupancy of selected codewords. Experiments verify that our method reduces both the model size and bit-wise computational costs, and achieves accuracy improvements compared with state-of-the-art BNNs under comparable budgets.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Quantized neural networks employ reduced precision representations for both weights and activations. This quantization process significantly reduces the memory requirements and computational complexity of the network. Binary Neural Networks (BNNs) are the extreme quantization case, representing values with just one bit. Since the sign function is typically used to map real values to binary values, smooth approximations are introduced to mimic the gradients during error backpropagation. Thus, the mismatch between the forward and backward models corrupts the direction of the gradient, causing training inconsistency problems and performance degradation. In contrast to current BNN approaches, we propose to employ a binary periodic (BiPer) function during binarization. Specifically, we use a square wave for the forward pass to obtain the binary values and employ the trigonometric sine function with the same period of the square wave as a differentiable surrogate during the backward pass. We demonstrate that this approach can control the quantization error by using the frequency of the periodic function and improves network performance. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of BiPer in benchmark datasets and network architectures, with improvements of up to 1% and 0.69% with respect to state-of-the-art methods in the classification task over CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, respectively. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/edmav4/BiPer.

Ternary and binary neural networks enable multiplication-free computation and promise multiple orders of magnitude efficiency gains over full-precision networks if implemented on specialized hardware. However, since both the parameter and the output space are highly discretized, such networks have proven very difficult to optimize. The difficulties are compounded for the class of transformer text generation models due to the sensitivity of the attention operation to quantization and the noise-compounding effects of autoregressive decoding in the high-cardinality output space. We approach the problem with a mix of statistics-based quantization for the weights and elastic quantization of the activations and demonstrate the first ternary and binary transformer models on the downstream tasks of summarization and machine translation. Our ternary BART base achieves an R1 score of 41 on the CNN/DailyMail benchmark, which is merely 3.9 points behind the full model while being 16x more efficient. Our binary model, while less accurate, achieves a highly non-trivial score of 35.6. For machine translation, we achieved BLEU scores of 21.7 and 17.6 on the WMT16 En-Ro benchmark, compared with a full precision mBART model score of 26.8. We also compare our approach in the 8-bit activation setting, where our ternary and even binary weight models can match or outperform the best existing 8-bit weight models in the literature. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/Ternary_Binary_Transformer

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Representations are at the core of all deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods for both Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Many representation learning methods and theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand what constitutes an effective representation. However, the relationships between these methods and the shared properties among them remain unclear. In this paper, we show that many of these seemingly distinct methods and frameworks for state and history abstractions are, in fact, based on a common idea of self-predictive abstraction. Furthermore, we provide theoretical insights into the widely adopted objectives and optimization, such as the stop-gradient technique, in learning self-predictive representations. These findings together yield a minimalist algorithm to learn self-predictive representations for states and histories. We validate our theories by applying our algorithm to standard MDPs, MDPs with distractors, and POMDPs with sparse rewards. These findings culminate in a set of preliminary guidelines for RL practitioners.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

How do sequence models represent their decision-making process? Prior work suggests that Othello-playing neural network learned nonlinear models of the board state (Li et al., 2023). In this work, we provide evidence of a closely related linear representation of the board. In particular, we show that probing for "my colour" vs. "opponent's colour" may be a simple yet powerful way to interpret the model's internal state. This precise understanding of the internal representations allows us to control the model's behaviour with simple vector arithmetic. Linear representations enable significant interpretability progress, which we demonstrate with further exploration of how the world model is computed.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

In this work, we introduce Boolformer, the first Transformer architecture trained to perform end-to-end symbolic regression of Boolean functions. First, we show that it can predict compact formulas for complex functions which were not seen during training, when provided a clean truth table. Then, we demonstrate its ability to find approximate expressions when provided incomplete and noisy observations. We evaluate the Boolformer on a broad set of real-world binary classification datasets, demonstrating its potential as an interpretable alternative to classic machine learning methods. Finally, we apply it to the widespread task of modelling the dynamics of gene regulatory networks. Using a recent benchmark, we show that Boolformer is competitive with state-of-the art genetic algorithms with a speedup of several orders of magnitude. Our code and models are available publicly.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

State representation learning, or the ability to capture latent generative factors of an environment, is crucial for building intelligent agents that can perform a wide variety of tasks. Learning such representations without supervision from rewards is a challenging open problem. We introduce a method that learns state representations by maximizing mutual information across spatially and temporally distinct features of a neural encoder of the observations. We also introduce a new benchmark based on Atari 2600 games where we evaluate representations based on how well they capture the ground truth state variables. We believe this new framework for evaluating representation learning models will be crucial for future representation learning research. Finally, we compare our technique with other state-of-the-art generative and contrastive representation learning methods. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/atari-representation-learning

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and plays no role during sampling or inference. We hypothesize that our approach eases modeling of long-term dependencies by implicitly forcing the forward states to hold information about the longer-term future (as contained in the backward states). We show empirically that our approach achieves 9% relative improvement for a speech recognition task, and achieves significant improvement on a COCO caption generation task.

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both populations. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach and empirically evaluate its ability to achieve both fairness and accuracy, using datasets from the fields of criminal risk assessment, credit, lending, and college admissions.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

Speculative decoding is a technique to leverage hardware concurrency to improve the efficiency of large-scale autoregressive (AR) Transformer models by enabling multiple steps of token generation in a single forward pass. State-space models (SSMs) are already more efficient than AR Transformers, since their state summarizes all past data with no need to cache or re-process tokens in the sliding window context. However, their state can also comprise thousands of tokens; so, speculative decoding has recently been extended to SSMs. Existing approaches, however, do not leverage the tree-based verification methods, since current SSMs lack the means to compute a token tree efficiently. We propose the first scalable algorithm to perform tree-based speculative decoding in state-space models (SSMs) and hybrid architectures of SSMs and Transformer layers. We exploit the structure of accumulated state transition matrices to facilitate tree-based speculative decoding with minimal overhead to current SSM state update implementations. With the algorithm, we describe a hardware-aware implementation that improves naive application of AR Transformer tree-based speculative decoding methods to SSMs. Furthermore, we outperform vanilla speculative decoding with SSMs even with a baseline drafting model and tree structure on three different benchmarks, opening up opportunities for further speed up with SSM and hybrid model inference. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

This paper introduces Adaptive Computation Time (ACT), an algorithm that allows recurrent neural networks to learn how many computational steps to take between receiving an input and emitting an output. ACT requires minimal changes to the network architecture, is deterministic and differentiable, and does not add any noise to the parameter gradients. Experimental results are provided for four synthetic problems: determining the parity of binary vectors, applying binary logic operations, adding integers, and sorting real numbers. Overall, performance is dramatically improved by the use of ACT, which successfully adapts the number of computational steps to the requirements of the problem. We also present character-level language modelling results on the Hutter prize Wikipedia dataset. In this case ACT does not yield large gains in performance; however it does provide intriguing insight into the structure of the data, with more computation allocated to harder-to-predict transitions, such as spaces between words and ends of sentences. This suggests that ACT or other adaptive computation methods could provide a generic method for inferring segment boundaries in sequence data.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers, mitigating their quadratic computational cost. However, the application of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods to SSMs remains largely unexplored. In particular, prompt-based methods like Prompt Tuning and Prefix-Tuning, which are widely used in Transformers, do not perform well on SSMs. To address this, we propose state-based methods as a superior alternative to prompt-based methods. This new family of methods naturally stems from the architectural characteristics of SSMs. State-based methods adjust state-related features directly instead of depending on external prompts. Furthermore, we introduce a novel state-based PEFT method: State-offset Tuning. At every timestep, our method directly affects the state at the current step, leading to more effective adaptation. Through extensive experiments across diverse datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/furiosa-ai/ssm-state-tuning.

Optimizer states are a major source of memory consumption for training neural networks, limiting the maximum trainable model within given memory budget. Compressing the optimizer states from 32-bit floating points to lower bitwidth is promising to reduce the training memory footprint, while the current lowest achievable bitwidth is 8-bit. In this work, we push optimizer states bitwidth down to 4-bit through a detailed empirical analysis of first and second moments. Specifically, we find that moments have complicated outlier patterns, that current block-wise quantization cannot accurately approximate. We use a smaller block size and propose to utilize both row-wise and column-wise information for better quantization. We further identify a zero point problem of quantizing the second moment, and solve this problem with a linear quantizer that excludes the zero point. Our 4-bit optimizers are evaluated on a wide variety of benchmarks including natural language understanding, machine translation, image classification, and instruction tuning. On all the tasks our optimizers can achieve comparable accuracy with their full-precision counterparts, while enjoying better memory efficiency.

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

If machine learning models were to achieve superhuman abilities at various reasoning or decision-making tasks, how would we go about evaluating such models, given that humans would necessarily be poor proxies for ground truth? In this paper, we propose a framework for evaluating superhuman models via consistency checks. Our premise is that while the correctness of superhuman decisions may be impossible to evaluate, we can still surface mistakes if the model's decisions fail to satisfy certain logical, human-interpretable rules. We instantiate our framework on three tasks where correctness of decisions is hard to evaluate due to either superhuman model abilities, or to otherwise missing ground truth: evaluating chess positions, forecasting future events, and making legal judgments. We show that regardless of a model's (possibly superhuman) performance on these tasks, we can discover logical inconsistencies in decision making. For example: a chess engine assigning opposing valuations to semantically identical boards; GPT-4 forecasting that sports records will evolve non-monotonically over time; or an AI judge assigning bail to a defendant only after we add a felony to their criminal record.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

Recent work has shown that state space models such as Mamba are significantly worse than Transformers on recall-based tasks due to the fact that their state size is constant with respect to their input sequence length. But in practice, state space models have fairly large state sizes, and we conjecture that they should be able to perform much better at these tasks than previously reported. We investigate whether their poor copying and recall performance could be due in part to training difficulties rather than fundamental capacity constraints. Based on observations of their "attention" maps, we propose a structured initialization technique that allows state space layers to more readily mimic attention. Across a variety of architecture settings, our initialization makes it substantially easier for Mamba to learn to copy and do associative recall from scratch.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Understanding properties of deep neural networks is an important challenge in deep learning. In this paper, we take a step in this direction by proposing a rigorous way of verifying properties of a popular class of neural networks, Binarized Neural Networks, using the well-developed means of Boolean satisfiability. Our main contribution is a construction that creates a representation of a binarized neural network as a Boolean formula. Our encoding is the first exact Boolean representation of a deep neural network. Using this encoding, we leverage the power of modern SAT solvers along with a proposed counterexample-guided search procedure to verify various properties of these networks. A particular focus will be on the critical property of robustness to adversarial perturbations. For this property, our experimental results demonstrate that our approach scales to medium-size deep neural networks used in image classification tasks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on verifying properties of deep neural networks using an exact Boolean encoding of the network.

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical worst-case analysis by giving algorithms access to predictions. Such predictions can typically be generated using a machine learning approach, but they are inherently imperfect. Previous work on learning-augmented paging has investigated predictions on (i) when the current page will be requested again (reoccurrence predictions), (ii) the current state of the cache in an optimal algorithm (state predictions), (iii) all requests until the current page gets requested again, and (iv) the relative order in which pages are requested. We study learning-augmented paging from the new perspective of requiring the least possible amount of predicted information. More specifically, the predictions obtained alongside each page request are limited to one bit only. We consider two natural such setups: (i) discard predictions, in which the predicted bit denotes whether or not it is ``safe'' to evict this page, and (ii) phase predictions, where the bit denotes whether the current page will be requested in the next phase (for an appropriate partitioning of the input into phases). We develop algorithms for each of the two setups that satisfy all three desirable properties of learning-augmented algorithms -- that is, they are consistent, robust and smooth -- despite being limited to a one-bit prediction per request. We also present lower bounds establishing that our algorithms are essentially best possible.

The optimal bit-width for achieving the best trade-off between quantized model size and accuracy has been a subject of ongoing debate. While some advocate for 4-bit quantization, others propose that 1.58-bit offers superior results. However, the lack of a cohesive framework for different bits has left such conclusions relatively tenuous. We present ParetoQ, the first unified framework that facilitates rigorous comparisons across 1-bit, 1.58-bit, 2-bit, 3-bit, and 4-bit quantization settings. Our findings reveal a notable learning transition between 2 and 3 bits: For 3-bits and above, the fine-tuned models stay close to their original pre-trained distributions, whereas for learning 2-bit networks or below, the representations change drastically. By optimizing training schemes and refining quantization functions, ParetoQ surpasses all previous methods tailored to specific bit widths. Remarkably, our ParetoQ ternary 600M-parameter model even outperforms the previous SoTA ternary 3B-parameter model in accuracy, using only one-fifth of the parameters. Extensive experimentation shows that ternary, 2-bit, and 3-bit quantization maintains comparable performance in the size-accuracy trade-off and generally exceeds 4-bit and binary quantization. Considering hardware constraints, 2-bit quantization offers promising potential for memory reduction and speedup.

The most fundamental capability of modern AI methods such as Large Language Models (LLMs) is the ability to predict the next token in a long sequence of tokens, known as ``sequence modeling." Although the Transformers model is the current dominant approach to sequence modeling, its quadratic computational cost with respect to sequence length is a significant drawback. State-space models (SSMs) offer a promising alternative due to their linear decoding efficiency and high parallelizability during training. However, existing SSMs often rely on seemingly ad hoc linear recurrence designs. In this work, we explore SSM design through the lens of online learning, conceptualizing SSMs as meta-modules for specific online learning problems. This approach links SSM design to formulating precise online learning objectives, with state transition rules derived from optimizing these objectives. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel deep SSM architecture based on the implicit update for optimizing an online regression objective. Our experimental results show that our models outperform state-of-the-art SSMs, including the Mamba model, on standard sequence modeling benchmarks and language modeling tasks.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

The state of health (SOH) of a Li-ion battery is a critical parameter that determines the remaining capacity and the remaining lifetime of the battery. In this paper, we propose SambaMixer a novel structured state space model (SSM) for predicting the state of health of Li-ion batteries. The proposed SSM is based on the MambaMixer architecture, which is designed to handle multi-variate time signals. We evaluate our model on the NASA battery discharge dataset and show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art on this dataset. We further introduce a novel anchor-based resampling method which ensures time signals are of the expected length while also serving as augmentation technique. Finally, we condition prediction on the sample time and the cycle time difference using positional encodings to improve the performance of our model and to learn recuperation effects. Our results proof that our model is able to predict the SOH of Li-ion batteries with high accuracy and robustness.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

State-space models (SSMs) are a new class of foundation models that have emerged as a compelling alternative to Transformers and their attention mechanisms for sequence processing tasks. This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of selective SSMs, the core components of the Mamba and Mamba-2 architectures. We leverage the connection between selective SSMs and the self-attention mechanism to highlight the fundamental similarities between these models. Building on this connection, we establish a length independent covering number-based generalization bound for selective SSMs, providing a deeper understanding of their theoretical performance guarantees. We analyze the effects of state matrix stability and input-dependent discretization, shedding light on the critical role played by these factors in the generalization capabilities of selective SSMs. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the sequence length independence of the derived bounds on two tasks.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

While Transformers and other sequence-parallelizable neural network architectures seem like the current state of the art in sequence modeling, they specifically lack state-tracking capabilities. These are important for time-series tasks and logical reasoning. Traditional RNNs like LSTMs and GRUs, as well as modern variants like sLSTM do have these capabilities at the cost of strictly sequential processing. While this is often seen as a strong limitation, we show how fast these networks can get with our hardware-optimization FlashRNN in Triton and CUDA, optimizing kernels to the register level on modern GPUs. We extend traditional RNNs with a parallelization variant that processes multiple RNNs of smaller hidden state in parallel, similar to the head-wise processing in Transformers. To enable flexibility on different GPU variants, we introduce a new optimization framework for hardware-internal cache sizes, memory and compute handling. It models the hardware in a setting using polyhedral-like constraints, including the notion of divisibility. This speeds up the solution process in our ConstrINT library for general integer constraint satisfaction problems (integer CSPs). We show that our kernels can achieve 50x speed-ups over a vanilla PyTorch implementation and allow 40x larger hidden sizes compared to our Triton implementation. Our open-source kernels and the optimization library are released here to boost research in the direction of state-tracking enabled RNNs and sequence modeling: https://github.com/NX-AI/flashrnn

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

Social networks have a vast range of applications with graphs. The available benchmark datasets are citation, co-occurrence, e-commerce networks, etc, with classes ranging from 3 to 15. However, there is no benchmark classification social network dataset for graph machine learning. This paper fills the gap and presents the Binary Classification Social Network Dataset (BiSND), designed for graph machine learning applications to predict binary classes. We present the BiSND in tabular and graph formats to verify its robustness across classical and advanced machine learning. We employ a diverse set of classifiers, including four traditional machine learning algorithms (Decision Trees, K-Nearest Neighbour, Random Forest, XGBoost), one Deep Neural Network (multi-layer perceptrons), one Graph Neural Network (Graph Convolutional Network), and three state-of-the-art Graph Contrastive Learning methods (BGRL, GRACE, DAENS). Our findings reveal that BiSND is suitable for classification tasks, with F1-scores ranging from 67.66 to 70.15, indicating promising avenues for future enhancements.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Recent advances in 1-bit Large Language Models (LLMs), such as BitNet and BitNet b1.58, present a promising approach to enhancing the efficiency of LLMs in terms of speed and energy consumption. These developments also enable local LLM deployment across a broad range of devices. In this work, we introduce bitnet.cpp, a tailored software stack designed to unlock the full potential of 1-bit LLMs. Specifically, we develop a set of kernels to support fast and lossless inference of ternary BitNet b1.58 LLMs on CPUs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that bitnet.cpp achieves significant speedups, ranging from 2.37x to 6.17x on x86 CPUs and from 1.37x to 5.07x on ARM CPUs, across various model sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/BitNet.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Stateful optimizers maintain gradient statistics over time, e.g., the exponentially smoothed sum (SGD with momentum) or squared sum (Adam) of past gradient values. This state can be used to accelerate optimization compared to plain stochastic gradient descent but uses memory that might otherwise be allocated to model parameters, thereby limiting the maximum size of models trained in practice. In this paper, we develop the first optimizers that use 8-bit statistics while maintaining the performance levels of using 32-bit optimizer states. To overcome the resulting computational, quantization, and stability challenges, we develop block-wise dynamic quantization. Block-wise quantization divides input tensors into smaller blocks that are independently quantized. Each block is processed in parallel across cores, yielding faster optimization and high precision quantization. To maintain stability and performance, we combine block-wise quantization with two additional changes: (1) dynamic quantization, a form of non-linear optimization that is precise for both large and small magnitude values, and (2) a stable embedding layer to reduce gradient variance that comes from the highly non-uniform distribution of input tokens in language models. As a result, our 8-bit optimizers maintain 32-bit performance with a small fraction of the memory footprint on a range of tasks, including 1.5B parameter language modeling, GLUE finetuning, ImageNet classification, WMT'14 machine translation, MoCo v2 contrastive ImageNet pretraining+finetuning, and RoBERTa pretraining, without changes to the original optimizer hyperparameters. We open-source our 8-bit optimizers as a drop-in replacement that only requires a two-line code change.

We revisit the noisy binary search model of Karp and Kleinberg, in which we have n coins with unknown probabilities p_i that we can flip. The coins are sorted by increasing p_i, and we would like to find where the probability crosses (to within varepsilon) of a target value tau. This generalized the fixed-noise model of Burnashev and Zigangirov , in which p_i = 1{2} pm varepsilon, to a setting where coins near the target may be indistinguishable from it. Karp and Kleinberg showed that Theta(1{varepsilon^2} log n) samples are necessary and sufficient for this task. We produce a practical algorithm by solving two theoretical challenges: high-probability behavior and sharp constants. We give an algorithm that succeeds with probability 1-delta from \[ 1{C_{\tau, \varepsilon}} \cdot \left(\lg n + O(\log^{2/3} n \log^{1/3} 1{\delta} + \log 1{\delta})\right) \] samples, where C_{tau, varepsilon} is the optimal such constant achievable. For delta > n^{-o(1)} this is within 1 + o(1) of optimal, and for delta ll 1 it is the first bound within constant factors of optimal.

Breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) and advances in quantum computing (QC) drive the interdisciplinary field of quantum machine learning to new levels. However, due to the susceptibility of ML models to adversarial attacks, practical use raises safety-critical concerns. Existing Randomized Smoothing (RS) certification methods for classical machine learning models are computationally intensive. In this paper, we propose the combination of QC and the concept of discrete randomized smoothing to speed up the stochastic certification of ML models for discrete data. We show how to encode all the perturbations of the input binary data in superposition and use Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) to obtain a quadratic reduction in the number of calls to the model that are required compared to traditional randomized smoothing techniques. In addition, we propose a new binary threat model to allow for an extensive evaluation of our approach on images, graphs, and text.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

Linear Recurrent Neural Networks (LRNNs) such as Mamba, RWKV, GLA, mLSTM, and DeltaNet have emerged as efficient alternatives to Transformers for long sequences. However, both Transformers and LRNNs struggle to perform state-tracking, which may impair performance in tasks such as code evaluation. In one forward pass, current architectures are unable to solve even parity, the simplest state-tracking task, which non-linear RNNs can handle effectively. Recently, Sarrof et al. (2024) demonstrated that the failure of LRNNs like Mamba to solve parity stems from restricting the value range of their diagonal state-transition matrices to [0, 1] and that incorporating negative values can resolve this issue. We extend this result to non-diagonal LRNNs such as DeltaNet. We prove that finite precision LRNNs with state-transition matrices having only positive eigenvalues cannot solve parity, while non-triangular matrices are needed to count modulo 3. Notably, we also prove that LRNNs can learn any regular language when their state-transition matrices are products of identity minus vector outer product matrices, each with eigenvalues in the range [-1, 1]. Our experiments confirm that extending the eigenvalue range of Mamba and DeltaNet to include negative values not only enables them to solve parity but consistently improves their performance on state-tracking tasks. We also show that state-tracking enabled LRNNs can be pretrained stably and efficiently at scale (1.3B parameters), achieving competitive performance on language modeling and showing promise on code and math tasks.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

In this study, we introduce an innovative deep learning framework that employs a transformer model to address the challenges of mixed-integer programs, specifically focusing on the Capacitated Lot Sizing Problem (CLSP). Our approach, to our knowledge, is the first to utilize transformers to predict the binary variables of a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Specifically, our approach harnesses the encoder decoder transformer's ability to process sequential data, making it well-suited for predicting binary variables indicating production setup decisions in each period of the CLSP. This problem is inherently dynamic, and we need to handle sequential decision making under constraints. We present an efficient algorithm in which CLSP solutions are learned through a transformer neural network. The proposed post-processed transformer algorithm surpasses the state-of-the-art solver, CPLEX and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in solution time, optimal gap, and percent infeasibility over 240K benchmark CLSP instances tested. After the ML model is trained, conducting inference on the model, reduces the MIP into a linear program (LP). This transforms the ML-based algorithm, combined with an LP solver, into a polynomial-time approximation algorithm to solve a well-known NP-Hard problem, with almost perfect solution quality.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Many graph algorithms can be viewed as sets of rules that are iteratively applied, with the number of iterations dependent on the size and complexity of the input graph. Existing machine learning architectures often struggle to represent these algorithmic decisions as discrete state transitions. Therefore, we propose a novel framework: GraphFSA (Graph Finite State Automaton). GraphFSA is designed to learn a finite state automaton that runs on each node of a given graph. We test GraphFSA on cellular automata problems, showcasing its abilities in a straightforward algorithmic setting. For a comprehensive empirical evaluation of our framework, we create a diverse range of synthetic problems. As our main application, we then focus on learning more elaborate graph algorithms. Our findings suggest that GraphFSA exhibits strong generalization and extrapolation abilities, presenting an alternative approach to represent these algorithms.

State Space Models (SSMs) are emerging as a compelling alternative to Transformers because of their consistent memory usage and high performance. Despite this, scaling up SSMs on cloud services or limited-resource devices is challenging due to their storage requirements and computational power. To overcome this, quantizing SSMs with low bit-width data formats can reduce model size and benefit from hardware acceleration. As SSMs are prone to quantization-induced errors, recent efforts have focused on optimizing a particular model or bit-width for efficiency without sacrificing performance. However, distinct bit-width configurations are essential for different scenarios, like W4A8 for boosting large-batch decoding speed, and W4A16 for enhancing generation speed in short prompt applications for a single user. To this end, we present Quamba2, compatible with W8A8, W4A8, and W4A16 for both Mamba1 and Mamba2 backbones, addressing the growing demand for SSM deployment on various platforms. Based on the channel order preserving and activation persistence of SSMs, we propose an offline approach to quantize inputs of a linear recurrence in 8-bit by sorting and clustering for input x, combined with a per-state-group quantization for input-dependent parameters B and C. To ensure compute-invariance in the SSM output, we rearrange weights offline according to the clustering sequence. The experiments show that Quamba2-8B outperforms several state-of-the-art SSM quantization methods and delivers 1.3times and 3times speed-ups in the pre-filling and generation stages, respectively, while offering 4times memory reduction with only a 1.6% average accuracy drop. The evaluation on MMLU shows the generalizability and robustness of our framework. The code and quantized models will be released at: https://github.com/enyac-group/Quamba.

Code comments are a key resource for information about software artefacts. Depending on the use case, only some types of comments are useful. Thus, automatic approaches to classify these comments have been proposed. In this work, we address this need by proposing, STACC, a set of SentenceTransformers-based binary classifiers. These lightweight classifiers are trained and tested on the NLBSE Code Comment Classification tool competition dataset, and surpass the baseline by a significant margin, achieving an average F1 score of 0.74 against the baseline of 0.31, which is an improvement of 139%. A replication package, as well as the models themselves, are publicly available.

Understanding neural networks is challenging in part because of the dense, continuous nature of their hidden states. We explore whether we can train neural networks to have hidden states that are sparse, discrete, and more interpretable by quantizing their continuous features into what we call codebook features. Codebook features are produced by finetuning neural networks with vector quantization bottlenecks at each layer, producing a network whose hidden features are the sum of a small number of discrete vector codes chosen from a larger codebook. Surprisingly, we find that neural networks can operate under this extreme bottleneck with only modest degradation in performance. This sparse, discrete bottleneck also provides an intuitive way of controlling neural network behavior: first, find codes that activate when the desired behavior is present, then activate those same codes during generation to elicit that behavior. We validate our approach by training codebook Transformers on several different datasets. First, we explore a finite state machine dataset with far more hidden states than neurons. In this setting, our approach overcomes the superposition problem by assigning states to distinct codes, and we find that we can make the neural network behave as if it is in a different state by activating the code for that state. Second, we train Transformer language models with up to 410M parameters on two natural language datasets. We identify codes in these models representing diverse, disentangled concepts (ranging from negative emotions to months of the year) and find that we can guide the model to generate different topics by activating the appropriate codes during inference. Overall, codebook features appear to be a promising unit of analysis and control for neural networks and interpretability. Our codebase and models are open-sourced at https://github.com/taufeeque9/codebook-features.

Emotion prediction is the field of study to understand human emotions. Existing methods focus on modalities like text, audio, facial expressions, etc., which could be private to the user. Emotion can be derived from the subject's psychological data as well. Various approaches that employ combinations of physiological sensors for emotion recognition have been proposed. Yet, not all sensors are simple to use and handy for individuals in their daily lives. Thus, we propose a system to predict user emotion using smartwatch sensors. We design a framework to collect ground truth in real-time utilizing a mix of English and regional language-based videos to invoke emotions in participants and collect the data. Further, we modeled the problem as binary classification due to the limited dataset size and experimented with multiple machine-learning models. We also did an ablation study to understand the impact of features including Heart Rate, Accelerometer, and Gyroscope sensor data on mood. From the experimental results, Multi-Layer Perceptron has shown a maximum accuracy of 93.75 percent for pleasant-unpleasant (high/low valence classification) moods.

Real world deployments of word alignment are almost certain to cover both high and low resource languages. However, the state-of-the-art for this task recommends a different model class depending on the availability of gold alignment training data for a particular language pair. We propose BinaryAlign, a novel word alignment technique based on binary sequence labeling that outperforms existing approaches in both scenarios, offering a unifying approach to the task. Additionally, we vary the specific choice of multilingual foundation model, perform stratified error analysis over alignment error type, and explore the performance of BinaryAlign on non-English language pairs. We make our source code publicly available.

We introduce an algorithm where the individual bits representing the weights of a neural network are learned. This method allows training weights with integer values on arbitrary bit-depths and naturally uncovers sparse networks, without additional constraints or regularization techniques. We show better results than the standard training technique with fully connected networks and similar performance as compared to standard training for convolutional and residual networks. By training bits in a selective manner we found that the biggest contribution to achieving high accuracy is given by the first three most significant bits, while the rest provide an intrinsic regularization. As a consequence more than 90\% of a network can be used to store arbitrary codes without affecting its accuracy. These codes may be random noise, binary files or even the weights of previously trained networks.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

For safety-related applications, it is crucial to produce trustworthy deep neural networks whose prediction is associated with confidence that can represent the likelihood of correctness for subsequent decision-making. Existing dense binary classification models are prone to being over-confident. To improve model calibration, we propose Adaptive Stochastic Label Perturbation (ASLP) which learns a unique label perturbation level for each training image. ASLP employs our proposed Self-Calibrating Binary Cross Entropy (SC-BCE) loss, which unifies label perturbation processes including stochastic approaches (like DisturbLabel), and label smoothing, to correct calibration while maintaining classification rates. ASLP follows Maximum Entropy Inference of classic statistical mechanics to maximise prediction entropy with respect to missing information. It performs this while: (1) preserving classification accuracy on known data as a conservative solution, or (2) specifically improves model calibration degree by minimising the gap between the prediction accuracy and expected confidence of the target training label. Extensive results demonstrate that ASLP can significantly improve calibration degrees of dense binary classification models on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. The code is available on https://github.com/Carlisle-Liu/ASLP.

We introduce the "Belief State Transformer", a next-token predictor that takes both a prefix and suffix as inputs, with a novel objective of predicting both the next token for the prefix and the previous token for the suffix. The Belief State Transformer effectively learns to solve challenging problems that conventional forward-only transformers struggle with, in a domain-independent fashion. Key to this success is learning a compact belief state that captures all relevant information necessary for accurate predictions. Empirical ablations show that each component of the model is essential in difficult scenarios where standard Transformers fall short. For the task of story writing with known prefixes and suffixes, our approach outperforms the Fill-in-the-Middle method for reaching known goals and demonstrates improved performance even when the goals are unknown. Altogether, the Belief State Transformer enables more efficient goal-conditioned decoding, better test-time inference, and high-quality text representations on small scale problems. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/belief-state-transformer

In this work we introduce malware detection from raw byte sequences as a fruitful research area to the larger machine learning community. Building a neural network for such a problem presents a number of interesting challenges that have not occurred in tasks such as image processing or NLP. In particular, we note that detection from raw bytes presents a sequence problem with over two million time steps and a problem where batch normalization appear to hinder the learning process. We present our initial work in building a solution to tackle this problem, which has linear complexity dependence on the sequence length, and allows for interpretable sub-regions of the binary to be identified. In doing so we will discuss the many challenges in building a neural network to process data at this scale, and the methods we used to work around them.

Network binarization emerges as one of the most promising compression approaches offering extraordinary computation and memory savings by minimizing the bit-width. However, recent research has shown that applying existing binarization algorithms to diverse tasks, architectures, and hardware in realistic scenarios is still not straightforward. Common challenges of binarization, such as accuracy degradation and efficiency limitation, suggest that its attributes are not fully understood. To close this gap, we present BiBench, a rigorously designed benchmark with in-depth analysis for network binarization. We first carefully scrutinize the requirements of binarization in the actual production and define evaluation tracks and metrics for a comprehensive and fair investigation. Then, we evaluate and analyze a series of milestone binarization algorithms that function at the operator level and with extensive influence. Our benchmark reveals that 1) the binarized operator has a crucial impact on the performance and deployability of binarized networks; 2) the accuracy of binarization varies significantly across different learning tasks and neural architectures; 3) binarization has demonstrated promising efficiency potential on edge devices despite the limited hardware support. The results and analysis also lead to a promising paradigm for accurate and efficient binarization. We believe that BiBench will contribute to the broader adoption of binarization and serve as a foundation for future research. The code for our BiBench is released https://github.com/htqin/BiBench .

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

We explore the properties of byte-level recurrent language models. When given sufficient amounts of capacity, training data, and compute time, the representations learned by these models include disentangled features corresponding to high-level concepts. Specifically, we find a single unit which performs sentiment analysis. These representations, learned in an unsupervised manner, achieve state of the art on the binary subset of the Stanford Sentiment Treebank. They are also very data efficient. When using only a handful of labeled examples, our approach matches the performance of strong baselines trained on full datasets. We also demonstrate the sentiment unit has a direct influence on the generative process of the model. Simply fixing its value to be positive or negative generates samples with the corresponding positive or negative sentiment.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Deep learning models perform poorly when domain shifts exist between training and test data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) is a paradigm to mitigate this issue by adapting pre-trained models using only unlabeled test samples. However, existing TTA methods can fail under severe domain shifts, while recent active TTA approaches requiring full-class labels are impractical due to high labeling costs. To address this issue, we introduce a new setting of TTA with binary feedback. This setting uses a few binary feedback inputs from annotators to indicate whether model predictions are correct, thereby significantly reducing the labeling burden of annotators. Under the setting, we propose BiTTA, a novel dual-path optimization framework that leverages reinforcement learning to balance binary feedback-guided adaptation on uncertain samples with agreement-based self-adaptation on confident predictions. Experiments show BiTTA achieves 13.3%p accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in handling severe distribution shifts with minimal labeling effort. The source code is available at https://github.com/taeckyung/BiTTA.

Structured state space sequence (S4) models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. These models also have fast inference speeds and parallelisable training, making them potentially useful in many reinforcement learning settings. We propose a modification to a variant of S4 that enables us to initialise and reset the hidden state in parallel, allowing us to tackle reinforcement learning tasks. We show that our modified architecture runs asymptotically faster than Transformers in sequence length and performs better than RNN's on a simple memory-based task. We evaluate our modified architecture on a set of partially-observable environments and find that, in practice, our model outperforms RNN's while also running over five times faster. Then, by leveraging the model's ability to handle long-range sequences, we achieve strong performance on a challenging meta-learning task in which the agent is given a randomly-sampled continuous control environment, combined with a randomly-sampled linear projection of the environment's observations and actions. Furthermore, we show the resulting model can adapt to out-of-distribution held-out tasks. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that structured state space models are fast and performant for in-context reinforcement learning tasks. We provide code at https://github.com/luchris429/popjaxrl.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible "dead-ends" of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a "medical dead-end" indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate "treatment security" as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

The large pre-trained BERT has achieved remarkable performance on Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks but is also computation and memory expensive. As one of the powerful compression approaches, binarization extremely reduces the computation and memory consumption by utilizing 1-bit parameters and bitwise operations. Unfortunately, the full binarization of BERT (i.e., 1-bit weight, embedding, and activation) usually suffer a significant performance drop, and there is rare study addressing this problem. In this paper, with the theoretical justification and empirical analysis, we identify that the severe performance drop can be mainly attributed to the information degradation and optimization direction mismatch respectively in the forward and backward propagation, and propose BiBERT, an accurate fully binarized BERT, to eliminate the performance bottlenecks. Specifically, BiBERT introduces an efficient Bi-Attention structure for maximizing representation information statistically and a Direction-Matching Distillation (DMD) scheme to optimize the full binarized BERT accurately. Extensive experiments show that BiBERT outperforms both the straightforward baseline and existing state-of-the-art quantized BERTs with ultra-low bit activations by convincing margins on the NLP benchmark. As the first fully binarized BERT, our method yields impressive 56.3 times and 31.2 times saving on FLOPs and model size, demonstrating the vast advantages and potential of the fully binarized BERT model in real-world resource-constrained scenarios.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

In this note (work in progress towards a full-length paper) we show that a family of sequence models based on recurrent linear layers~(including S4, S5, and the LRU) interleaved with position-wise multi-layer perceptrons~(MLPs) can approximate arbitrarily well any sufficiently regular non-linear sequence-to-sequence map. The main idea behind our result is to see recurrent layers as compression algorithms that can faithfully store information about the input sequence into an inner state, before it is processed by the highly expressive MLP.

Speech patterns have been identified as potential diagnostic markers for neuropsychiatric conditions. However, most studies only compare a single clinical group to healthy controls, whereas clinical practice often requires differentiating between multiple potential diagnoses (multiclass settings). To address this, we assembled a dataset of repeated recordings from 420 participants (67 with major depressive disorder, 106 with schizophrenia and 46 with autism, as well as matched controls), and tested the performance of a range of conventional machine learning models and advanced Transformer models on both binary and multiclass classification, based on voice and text features. While binary models performed comparably to previous research (F1 scores between 0.54-0.75 for autism spectrum disorder, ASD; 0.67-0.92 for major depressive disorder, MDD; and 0.71-0.83 for schizophrenia); when differentiating between multiple diagnostic groups performance decreased markedly (F1 scores between 0.35-0.44 for ASD, 0.57-0.75 for MDD, 0.15-0.66 for schizophrenia, and 0.38-0.52 macro F1). Combining voice and text-based models yielded increased performance, suggesting that they capture complementary diagnostic information. Our results indicate that models trained on binary classification may learn to rely on markers of generic differences between clinical and non-clinical populations, or markers of clinical features that overlap across conditions, rather than identifying markers specific to individual conditions. We provide recommendations for future research in the field, suggesting increased focus on developing larger transdiagnostic datasets that include more fine-grained clinical features, and that can support the development of models that better capture the complexity of neuropsychiatric conditions and naturalistic diagnostic assessment.

Generating synthetic tabular data is critical in machine learning, especially when real data is limited or sensitive. Traditional generative models often face challenges due to the unique characteristics of tabular data, such as mixed data types and varied distributions, and require complex preprocessing or large pretrained models. In this paper, we introduce a novel, lossless binary transformation method that converts any tabular data into fixed-size binary representations, and a corresponding new generative model called Binary Diffusion, specifically designed for binary data. Binary Diffusion leverages the simplicity of XOR operations for noise addition and removal and employs binary cross-entropy loss for training. Our approach eliminates the need for extensive preprocessing, complex noise parameter tuning, and pretraining on large datasets. We evaluate our model on several popular tabular benchmark datasets, demonstrating that Binary Diffusion outperforms existing state-of-the-art models on Travel, Adult Income, and Diabetes datasets while being significantly smaller in size.

The role of hidden units in recurrent neural networks is typically seen as modeling memory, with research focusing on enhancing information retention through gating mechanisms. A less explored perspective views hidden units as active participants in the computation performed by the network, rather than passive memory stores. In this work, we revisit bi-linear operations, which involve multiplicative interactions between hidden units and input embeddings. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that they constitute a natural inductive bias for representing the evolution of hidden states in state tracking tasks. These are the simplest type of task that require hidden units to actively contribute to the behavior of the network. We also show that bi-linear state updates form a natural hierarchy corresponding to state tracking tasks of increasing complexity, with popular linear recurrent networks such as Mamba residing at the lowest-complexity center of that hierarchy.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

We propose a technique for learning representations of parser states in transition-based dependency parsers. Our primary innovation is a new control structure for sequence-to-sequence neural networks---the stack LSTM. Like the conventional stack data structures used in transition-based parsing, elements can be pushed to or popped from the top of the stack in constant time, but, in addition, an LSTM maintains a continuous space embedding of the stack contents. This lets us formulate an efficient parsing model that captures three facets of a parser's state: (i) unbounded look-ahead into the buffer of incoming words, (ii) the complete history of actions taken by the parser, and (iii) the complete contents of the stack of partially built tree fragments, including their internal structures. Standard backpropagation techniques are used for training and yield state-of-the-art parsing performance.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Binary code is pervasive, and binary analysis is a key task in reverse engineering, malware classification, and vulnerability discovery. Unfortunately, while there exist large corpuses of malicious binaries, obtaining high-quality corpuses of benign binaries for modern systems has proven challenging (e.g., due to licensing issues). Consequently, machine learning based pipelines for binary analysis utilize either costly commercial corpuses (e.g., VirusTotal) or open-source binaries (e.g., coreutils) available in limited quantities. To address these issues, we present Assemblage: an extensible cloud-based distributed system that crawls, configures, and builds Windows PE binaries to obtain high-quality binary corpuses suitable for training state-of-the-art models in binary analysis. We have run Assemblage on AWS over the past year, producing 890k Windows PE and 428k Linux ELF binaries across 29 configurations. Assemblage is designed to be both reproducible and extensible, enabling users to publish "recipes" for their datasets, and facilitating the extraction of a wide array of features. We evaluated Assemblage by using its data to train modern learning-based pipelines for compiler provenance and binary function similarity. Our results illustrate the practical need for robust corpuses of high-quality Windows PE binaries in training modern learning-based binary analyses. Assemblage can be downloaded from https://assemblage-dataset.net

While Transformers have been the main architecture behind deep learning's success in language modeling, state-space models (SSMs) such as Mamba have recently been shown to match or outperform Transformers at small to medium scale. We show that these families of models are actually quite closely related, and develop a rich framework of theoretical connections between SSMs and variants of attention, connected through various decompositions of a well-studied class of structured semiseparable matrices. Our state space duality (SSD) framework allows us to design a new architecture (Mamba-2) whose core layer is an a refinement of Mamba's selective SSM that is 2-8X faster, while continuing to be competitive with Transformers on language modeling.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

This paper focuses on the construction of a general parametric model that can be implemented executing multiple swap tests over few qubits and applying a suitable measurement protocol. The model turns out to be equivalent to a two-layer feedforward neural network which can be realized combining small quantum modules. The advantages and the perspectives of the proposed quantum method are discussed.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

Name-based gender prediction has traditionally categorized individuals as either female or male based on their names, using a binary classification system. That binary approach can be problematic in the cases of gender-neutral names that do not align with any one gender, among other reasons. Relying solely on binary gender categories without recognizing gender-neutral names can reduce the inclusiveness of gender prediction tasks. We introduce an additional gender category, i.e., "neutral", to study and address potential gender biases in Large Language Models (LLMs). We evaluate the performance of several foundational and large language models in predicting gender based on first names only. Additionally, we investigate the impact of adding birth years to enhance the accuracy of gender prediction, accounting for shifting associations between names and genders over time. Our findings indicate that most LLMs identify male and female names with high accuracy (over 80%) but struggle with gender-neutral names (under 40%), and the accuracy of gender prediction is higher for English-based first names than non-English names. The experimental results show that incorporating the birth year does not improve the overall accuracy of gender prediction, especially for names with evolving gender associations. We recommend using caution when applying LLMs for gender identification in downstream tasks, particularly when dealing with non-binary gender labels.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

We present an algorithm for learning mixtures of Markov chains and Markov decision processes (MDPs) from short unlabeled trajectories. Specifically, our method handles mixtures of Markov chains with optional control input by going through a multi-step process, involving (1) a subspace estimation step, (2) spectral clustering of trajectories using "pairwise distance estimators," along with refinement using the EM algorithm, (3) a model estimation step, and (4) a classification step for predicting labels of new trajectories. We provide end-to-end performance guarantees, where we only explicitly require the length of trajectories to be linear in the number of states and the number of trajectories to be linear in a mixing time parameter. Experimental results support these guarantees, where we attain 96.6% average accuracy on a mixture of two MDPs in gridworld, outperforming the EM algorithm with random initialization (73.2% average accuracy).

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

Recent work has shown that, under certain assumptions, zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) methods can generalise to any unseen task in an environment after reward-free pre-training. Access to Markov states is one such assumption, yet, in many real-world applications, the Markov state is only partially observable. Here, we explore how the performance of standard zero-shot RL methods degrades when subjected to partially observability, and show that, as in single-task RL, memory-based architectures are an effective remedy. We evaluate our memory-based zero-shot RL methods in domains where the states, rewards and a change in dynamics are partially observed, and show improved performance over memory-free baselines. Our code is open-sourced via: https://enjeeneer.io/projects/bfms-with-memory/.

Dynamic model pruning is a recent direction that allows for the inference of a different sub-network for each input sample during deployment. However, current dynamic methods rely on learning a continuous channel gating through regularization by inducing sparsity loss. This formulation introduces complexity in balancing different losses (e.g task loss, regularization loss). In addition, regularization based methods lack transparent tradeoff hyperparameter selection to realize a computational budget. Our contribution is two-fold: 1) decoupled task and pruning losses. 2) Simple hyperparameter selection that enables FLOPs reduction estimation before training. Inspired by the Hebbian theory in Neuroscience: "neurons that fire together wire together", we propose to predict a mask to process k filters in a layer based on the activation of its previous layer. We pose the problem as a self-supervised binary classification problem. Each mask predictor module is trained to predict if the log-likelihood for each filter in the current layer belongs to the top-k activated filters. The value k is dynamically estimated for each input based on a novel criterion using the mass of heatmaps. We show experiments on several neural architectures, such as VGG, ResNet and MobileNet on CIFAR and ImageNet datasets. On CIFAR, we reach similar accuracy to SOTA methods with 15% and 24% higher FLOPs reduction. Similarly in ImageNet, we achieve lower drop in accuracy with up to 13% improvement in FLOPs reduction.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

In this dissertation we report results of our research on dense distributed representations of text data. We propose two novel neural models for learning such representations. The first model learns representations at the document level, while the second model learns word-level representations. For document-level representations we propose Binary Paragraph Vector: a neural network models for learning binary representations of text documents, which can be used for fast document retrieval. We provide a thorough evaluation of these models and demonstrate that they outperform the seminal method in the field in the information retrieval task. We also report strong results in transfer learning settings, where our models are trained on a generic text corpus and then used to infer codes for documents from a domain-specific dataset. In contrast to previously proposed approaches, Binary Paragraph Vector models learn embeddings directly from raw text data. For word-level representations we propose Disambiguated Skip-gram: a neural network model for learning multi-sense word embeddings. Representations learned by this model can be used in downstream tasks, like part-of-speech tagging or identification of semantic relations. In the word sense induction task Disambiguated Skip-gram outperforms state-of-the-art models on three out of four benchmarks datasets. Our model has an elegant probabilistic interpretation. Furthermore, unlike previous models of this kind, it is differentiable with respect to all its parameters and can be trained with backpropagation. In addition to quantitative results, we present qualitative evaluation of Disambiguated Skip-gram, including two-dimensional visualisations of selected word-sense embeddings.

Modeling long range dependencies in sequential data is a fundamental step towards attaining human-level performance in many modalities such as text, vision, audio and video. While attention-based models are a popular and effective choice in modeling short-range interactions, their performance on tasks requiring long range reasoning has been largely inadequate. In an exciting result, Gu et al. (ICLR 2022) proposed the Structured State Space (S4) architecture delivering large gains over state-of-the-art models on several long-range tasks across various modalities. The core proposition of S4 is the parameterization of state matrices via a diagonal plus low rank structure, allowing efficient computation. In this work, we show that one can match the performance of S4 even without the low rank correction and thus assuming the state matrices to be diagonal. Our Diagonal State Space (DSS) model matches the performance of S4 on Long Range Arena tasks, speech classification on Speech Commands dataset, while being conceptually simpler and straightforward to implement.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is the most popular method for proxying race/ethnicity in voter registration files that do not contain it. This paper benchmarks BISG against a range of previously untested machine learning alternatives, using voter files with self-reported race/ethnicity from California, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. This analysis yields three key findings. First, machine learning consistently outperforms BISG at individual classification of race/ethnicity. Second, BISG and machine learning methods exhibit divergent biases for estimating regional racial composition. Third, the performance of all methods varies substantially across states. These results suggest that pre-trained machine learning models are preferable to BISG for individual classification. Furthermore, mixed results across states underscore the need for researchers to empirically validate their chosen race/ethnicity proxy in their populations of interest.

Recent advances in deep learning have mainly relied on Transformers due to their data dependency and ability to learn at scale. The attention module in these architectures, however, exhibits quadratic time and space in input size, limiting their scalability for long-sequence modeling. Despite recent attempts to design efficient and effective architecture backbone for multi-dimensional data, such as images and multivariate time series, existing models are either data independent, or fail to allow inter- and intra-dimension communication. Recently, State Space Models (SSMs), and more specifically Selective State Space Models, with efficient hardware-aware implementation, have shown promising potential for long sequence modeling. Motivated by the success of SSMs, we present MambaMixer, a new architecture with data-dependent weights that uses a dual selection mechanism across tokens and channels, called Selective Token and Channel Mixer. MambaMixer connects selective mixers using a weighted averaging mechanism, allowing layers to have direct access to early features. As a proof of concept, we design Vision MambaMixer (ViM2) and Time Series MambaMixer (TSM2) architectures based on the MambaMixer block and explore their performance in various vision and time series forecasting tasks. Our results underline the importance of selective mixing across both tokens and channels. In ImageNet classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks, ViM2 achieves competitive performance with well-established vision models and outperforms SSM-based vision models. In time series forecasting, TSM2 achieves outstanding performance compared to state-of-the-art methods while demonstrating significantly improved computational cost. These results show that while Transformers, cross-channel attention, and MLPs are sufficient for good performance in time series forecasting, neither is necessary.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

In this work, we introduce ChemBFN, a language model that handles chemistry tasks based on Bayesian flow networks working on discrete data. A new accuracy schedule is proposed to improve the sampling quality by significantly reducing the reconstruction loss. We show evidence that our method is appropriate for generating molecules with satisfied diversity even when a smaller number of sampling steps is used. A classifier-free guidance method is adapted for conditional generation. It is also worthwhile to point out that after generative training, our model can be fine-tuned on regression and classification tasks with the state-of-the-art performance, which opens the gate of building all-in-one models in a single module style. Our model has been open sourced at https://github.com/Augus1999/bayesian-flow-network-for-chemistry.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Model-based reinforcement learning agents utilizing transformers have shown improved sample efficiency due to their ability to model extended context, resulting in more accurate world models. However, for complex reasoning and planning tasks, these methods primarily rely on continuous representations. This complicates modeling of discrete properties of the real world such as disjoint object classes between which interpolation is not plausible. In this work, we introduce discrete abstract representations for transformer-based learning (DART), a sample-efficient method utilizing discrete representations for modeling both the world and learning behavior. We incorporate a transformer-decoder for auto-regressive world modeling and a transformer-encoder for learning behavior by attending to task-relevant cues in the discrete representation of the world model. For handling partial observability, we aggregate information from past time steps as memory tokens. DART outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods that do not use look-ahead search on the Atari 100k sample efficiency benchmark with a median human-normalized score of 0.790 and beats humans in 9 out of 26 games. We release our code at https://pranaval.github.io/DART/.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.

This paper is dedicated to an efficient compression of weights and optimizer states (called checkpoints) obtained at different stages during a neural network training process. First, we propose a prediction-based compression approach, where values from the previously saved checkpoint are used for context modeling in arithmetic coding. Second, in order to enhance the compression performance, we also propose to apply pruning and quantization of the checkpoint values. Experimental results show that our approach achieves substantial bit size reduction, while enabling near-lossless training recovery from restored checkpoints, preserving the model's performance and making it suitable for storage-limited environments.

This work endeavors to juxtapose the efficacy of machine learning algorithms within classical and quantum computational paradigms. Particularly, by emphasizing on Support Vector Machines (SVM), we scrutinize the classification prowess of classical SVM and Quantum Support Vector Machines (QSVM) operational on quantum hardware over the Iris dataset. The methodology embraced encapsulates an extensive array of experiments orchestrated through the Qiskit library, alongside hyperparameter optimization. The findings unveil that in particular scenarios, QSVMs extend a level of accuracy that can vie with classical SVMs, albeit the execution times are presently protracted. Moreover, we underscore that augmenting quantum computational capacity and the magnitude of parallelism can markedly ameliorate the performance of quantum machine learning algorithms. This inquiry furnishes invaluable insights regarding the extant scenario and future potentiality of machine learning applications in the quantum epoch. Colab: https://t.ly/QKuz0

Activity difference based learning algorithms-such as contrastive Hebbian learning and equilibrium propagation-have been proposed as biologically plausible alternatives to error back-propagation. However, on traditional digital chips these algorithms suffer from having to solve a costly inference problem twice, making these approaches more than two orders of magnitude slower than back-propagation. In the analog realm equilibrium propagation may be promising for fast and energy efficient learning, but states still need to be inferred and stored twice. Inspired by lifted neural networks and compartmental neuron models we propose a simple energy based compartmental neuron model, termed dual propagation, in which each neuron is a dyad with two intrinsic states. At inference time these intrinsic states encode the error/activity duality through their difference and their mean respectively. The advantage of this method is that only a single inference phase is needed and that inference can be solved in layerwise closed-form. Experimentally we show on common computer vision datasets, including Imagenet32x32, that dual propagation performs equivalently to back-propagation both in terms of accuracy and runtime.

Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) under class distribution mismatch aims to tackle a challenging problem wherein unlabeled data contain lots of unknown categories unseen in the labeled ones. In such mismatch scenarios, traditional SSL suffers severe performance damage due to the harmful invasion of the instances with unknown categories into the target classifier. In this study, by strict mathematical reasoning, we reveal that the SSL error under class distribution mismatch is composed of pseudo-labeling error and invasion error, both of which jointly bound the SSL population risk. To alleviate the SSL error, we propose a robust SSL framework called Weight-Aware Distillation (WAD) that, by weights, selectively transfers knowledge beneficial to the target task from unsupervised contrastive representation to the target classifier. Specifically, WAD captures adaptive weights and high-quality pseudo labels to target instances by exploring point mutual information (PMI) in representation space to maximize the role of unlabeled data and filter unknown categories. Theoretically, we prove that WAD has a tight upper bound of population risk under class distribution mismatch. Experimentally, extensive results demonstrate that WAD outperforms five state-of-the-art SSL approaches and one standard baseline on two benchmark datasets, CIFAR10 and CIFAR100, and an artificial cross-dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/RUC-DWBI-ML/research/tree/main/WAD-master.

Neural sequence models are widely used to model time-series data. Equally ubiquitous is the usage of beam search (BS) as an approximate inference algorithm to decode output sequences from these models. BS explores the search space in a greedy left-right fashion retaining only the top-B candidates - resulting in sequences that differ only slightly from each other. Producing lists of nearly identical sequences is not only computationally wasteful but also typically fails to capture the inherent ambiguity of complex AI tasks. To overcome this problem, we propose Diverse Beam Search (DBS), an alternative to BS that decodes a list of diverse outputs by optimizing for a diversity-augmented objective. We observe that our method finds better top-1 solutions by controlling for the exploration and exploitation of the search space - implying that DBS is a better search algorithm. Moreover, these gains are achieved with minimal computational or memory over- head as compared to beam search. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our method, we present results on image captioning, machine translation and visual question generation using both standard quantitative metrics and qualitative human studies. Further, we study the role of diversity for image-grounded language generation tasks as the complexity of the image changes. We observe that our method consistently outperforms BS and previously proposed techniques for diverse decoding from neural sequence models.

A digital twin is a virtual replica of a real-world physical phenomena that uses mathematical modeling to characterize and simulate its defining features. By constructing digital twins for disease processes, we can perform in-silico simulations that mimic patients' health conditions and counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions in a virtual setting. This eliminates the need for invasive procedures or uncertain treatment decisions. In this paper, we propose a method to identify digital twin model parameters using only noninvasive patient health data. We approach the digital twin modeling as a composite inverse problem, and observe that its structure resembles pretraining and finetuning in self-supervised learning (SSL). Leveraging this, we introduce a physics-informed SSL algorithm that initially pretrains a neural network on the pretext task of solving the physical model equations. Subsequently, the model is trained to reconstruct low-dimensional health measurements from noninvasive modalities while being constrained by the physical equations learned in pretraining. We apply our method to identify digital twins of cardiac hemodynamics using noninvasive echocardiogram videos, and demonstrate its utility in unsupervised disease detection and in-silico clinical trials.

In recent years, Transformers have become the de-facto architecture for sequence modeling on text and a variety of multi-dimensional data, such as images and video. However, the use of self-attention layers in a Transformer incurs prohibitive compute and memory complexity that scales quadratically w.r.t. the sequence length. A recent architecture, Mamba, based on state space models has been shown to achieve comparable performance for modeling text sequences, while scaling linearly with the sequence length. In this work, we present Mamba-ND, a generalized design extending the Mamba architecture to arbitrary multi-dimensional data. Our design alternatively unravels the input data across different dimensions following row-major orderings. We provide a systematic comparison of Mamba-ND with several other alternatives, based on prior multi-dimensional extensions such as Bi-directional LSTMs and S4ND. Empirically, we show that Mamba-ND demonstrates performance competitive with the state-of-the-art on a variety of multi-dimensional benchmarks, including ImageNet-1K classification, HMDB-51 action recognition, and ERA5 weather forecasting.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Humans' internal states play a key role in human-machine interaction, leading to the rise of human state estimation as a prominent field. Compared to swift state changes such as surprise and irritation, modeling gradual states like trust and satisfaction are further challenged by label sparsity: long time-series signals are usually associated with a single label, making it difficult to identify the critical span of state shifts. Windowing has been one widely-used technique to enable localized analysis of long time-series data. However, the performance of downstream models can be sensitive to the window size, and determining the optimal window size demands domain expertise and extensive search. To address this challenge, we propose a Selective Windowing Attention Network (SWAN), which employs window prompts and masked attention transformation to enable the selection of attended intervals with flexible lengths. We evaluate SWAN on the task of trust prediction on a new multimodal driving simulation dataset. Experiments show that SWAN significantly outperforms an existing empirical window selection baseline and neural network baselines including CNN-LSTM and Transformer. Furthermore, it shows robustness across a wide span of windowing ranges, compared to the traditional windowing approach.

Living systems face both environmental complexity and limited access to free-energy resources. Survival under these conditions requires a control system that can activate, or deploy, available perception and action resources in a context specific way. We show here that when systems are described as executing active inference driven by the free-energy principle (and hence can be considered Bayesian prediction-error minimizers), their control flow systems can always be represented as tensor networks (TNs). We show how TNs as control systems can be implmented within the general framework of quantum topological neural networks, and discuss the implications of these results for modeling biological systems at multiple scales.

Recent work on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has pointed out that algorithmic information about good policies can be extracted from offline data which lack explicit information about executed actions. For example, videos of humans or robots may convey a lot of implicit information about rewarding action sequences, but a DRL machine that wants to profit from watching such videos must first learn by itself to identify and recognize relevant states/actions/rewards. Without relying on ground-truth annotations, our new method called Deep State Identifier learns to predict returns from episodes encoded as videos. Then it uses a kind of mask-based sensitivity analysis to extract/identify important critical states. Extensive experiments showcase our method's potential for understanding and improving agent behavior. The source code and the generated datasets are available at https://github.com/AI-Initiative-KAUST/VideoRLCS.

Sequence modeling is a crucial area across various domains, including Natural Language Processing (NLP), speech recognition, time series forecasting, music generation, and bioinformatics. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Long Short Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have historically dominated sequence modeling tasks like Machine Translation, Named Entity Recognition (NER), etc. However, the advancement of transformers has led to a shift in this paradigm, given their superior performance. Yet, transformers suffer from O(N^2) attention complexity and challenges in handling inductive bias. Several variations have been proposed to address these issues which use spectral networks or convolutions and have performed well on a range of tasks. However, they still have difficulty in dealing with long sequences. State Space Models(SSMs) have emerged as promising alternatives for sequence modeling paradigms in this context, especially with the advent of S4 and its variants, such as S4nd, Hippo, Hyena, Diagnol State Spaces (DSS), Gated State Spaces (GSS), Linear Recurrent Unit (LRU), Liquid-S4, Mamba, etc. In this survey, we categorize the foundational SSMs based on three paradigms namely, Gating architectures, Structural architectures, and Recurrent architectures. This survey also highlights diverse applications of SSMs across domains such as vision, video, audio, speech, language (especially long sequence modeling), medical (including genomics), chemical (like drug design), recommendation systems, and time series analysis, including tabular data. Moreover, we consolidate the performance of SSMs on benchmark datasets like Long Range Arena (LRA), WikiText, Glue, Pile, ImageNet, Kinetics-400, sstv2, as well as video datasets such as Breakfast, COIN, LVU, and various time series datasets. The project page for Mamba-360 work is available on this webpage.https://github.com/badripatro/mamba360.

Model quantification uses low bit-width values to represent the weight matrices of models, which is a promising approach to reduce both storage and computational overheads of deploying highly anticipated LLMs. However, existing quantization methods suffer severe performance degradation when the bit-width is extremely reduced, and thus focus on utilizing 4-bit or 8-bit values to quantize models. This paper boldly quantizes the weight matrices of LLMs to 1-bit, paving the way for the extremely low bit-width deployment of LLMs. For this target, we introduce a 1-bit quantization-aware training (QAT) framework named OneBit, including a novel 1-bit parameter representation method to better quantize LLMs as well as an effective parameter initialization method based on matrix decomposition to improve the convergence speed of the QAT framework. Sufficient experimental results indicate that OneBit achieves good performance (at least 83% of the non-quantized performance) with robust training processes when only using 1-bit weight matrices.

Recent research, such as BitNet, is paving the way for a new era of 1-bit Large Language Models (LLMs). In this work, we introduce a 1-bit LLM variant, namely BitNet b1.58, in which every single parameter (or weight) of the LLM is ternary {-1, 0, 1}. It matches the full-precision (i.e., FP16 or BF16) Transformer LLM with the same model size and training tokens in terms of both perplexity and end-task performance, while being significantly more cost-effective in terms of latency, memory, throughput, and energy consumption. More profoundly, the 1.58-bit LLM defines a new scaling law and recipe for training new generations of LLMs that are both high-performance and cost-effective. Furthermore, it enables a new computation paradigm and opens the door for designing specific hardware optimized for 1-bit LLMs.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

In this work, we provide a characterization of the feature-learning process in two-layer ReLU networks trained by gradient descent on the logistic loss following random initialization. We consider data with binary labels that are generated by an XOR-like function of the input features. We permit a constant fraction of the training labels to be corrupted by an adversary. We show that, although linear classifiers are no better than random guessing for the distribution we consider, two-layer ReLU networks trained by gradient descent achieve generalization error close to the label noise rate. We develop a novel proof technique that shows that at initialization, the vast majority of neurons function as random features that are only weakly correlated with useful features, and the gradient descent dynamics 'amplify' these weak, random features to strong, useful features.

We introduce BitNet b1.58 2B4T, the first open-source, native 1-bit Large Language Model (LLM) at the 2-billion parameter scale. Trained on a corpus of 4 trillion tokens, the model has been rigorously evaluated across benchmarks covering language understanding, mathematical reasoning, coding proficiency, and conversational ability. Our results demonstrate that BitNet b1.58 2B4T achieves performance on par with leading open-weight, full-precision LLMs of similar size, while offering significant advantages in computational efficiency, including substantially reduced memory footprint, energy consumption, and decoding latency. To facilitate further research and adoption, the model weights are released via Hugging Face along with open-source inference implementations for both GPU and CPU architectures.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

Predicting gender by the first name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. In this paper, we examined and implemented several machine learning algorithms, such as extra trees, KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, gradient boosting, light GBM, logistic regression, ridge classifier, and deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. We analyzed the accuracy, recall, precision, f1 score, and confusion matrix to measure the models' performances. The results indicate that the gender prediction can be performed from the feature extraction strategy looking at the names as a set of strings. Some models accurately predict gender in more than 95% of the cases. The recurrent models overcome the feedforward models in this binary classification problem.

This paper studies the problem of training a two-layer ReLU network for binary classification using gradient flow with small initialization. We consider a training dataset with well-separated input vectors: Any pair of input data with the same label are positively correlated, and any pair with different labels are negatively correlated. Our analysis shows that, during the early phase of training, neurons in the first layer try to align with either the positive data or the negative data, depending on its corresponding weight on the second layer. A careful analysis of the neurons' directional dynamics allows us to provide an O(log n{mu}) upper bound on the time it takes for all neurons to achieve good alignment with the input data, where n is the number of data points and mu measures how well the data are separated. After the early alignment phase, the loss converges to zero at a O(1{t}) rate, and the weight matrix on the first layer is approximately low-rank. Numerical experiments on the MNIST dataset illustrate our theoretical findings.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

Recently, recurrent models based on linear state space models (SSMs) have shown promising performance in language modeling (LM), competititve with transformers. However, there is little understanding of the in-principle abilities of such models, which could provide useful guidance to the search for better LM architectures. We present a comprehensive theoretical study of the capacity of such SSMs as it compares to that of transformers and traditional RNNs. We find that SSMs and transformers have overlapping but distinct strengths. In star-free state tracking, SSMs implement straightforward and exact solutions to problems that transformers struggle to represent exactly. They can also model bounded hierarchical structure with optimal memory even without simulating a stack. On the other hand, we identify a design choice in current SSMs that limits their expressive power. We discuss implications for SSM and LM research, and verify results empirically on a recent SSM, Mamba.

State Space Models (SSMs) have become serious contenders in the field of sequential modeling, challenging the dominance of Transformers. At the same time, Mixture of Experts (MoE) has significantly improved Transformer-based LLMs, including recent state-of-the-art open-source models. We propose that to unlock the potential of SSMs for scaling, they should be combined with MoE. We showcase this on Mamba, a recent SSM-based model that achieves remarkable, Transformer-like performance. Our model, MoE-Mamba, outperforms both Mamba and Transformer-MoE. In particular, MoE-Mamba reaches the same performance as Mamba in 2.2x less training steps while preserving the inference performance gains of Mamba against the Transformer.

Contemporary machine learning models, such as language models, are powerful, but come with immense resource requirements both at training and inference time. It has been shown that decoder-only language models can be trained to a competitive state with ternary weights (1.58 bits per weight), facilitating efficient inference. Here, we start our exploration with non-transformer model architectures, investigating 1.58-bit training for multi-layer perceptrons and graph neural networks. Then, we explore 1.58-bit training in other transformer-based language models, namely encoder-only and encoder-decoder models. Our results show that in all of these settings, 1.58-bit training is on par with or sometimes even better than the standard 32/16-bit models.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

In this paper, we introduce an improved approach of speculative decoding aimed at enhancing the efficiency of serving large language models. Our method capitalizes on the strengths of two established techniques: the classic two-model speculative decoding approach, and the more recent single-model approach, Medusa. Drawing inspiration from Medusa, our approach adopts a single-model strategy for speculative decoding. However, our method distinguishes itself by employing a single, lightweight draft head with a recurrent dependency design, akin in essence to the small, draft model uses in classic speculative decoding, but without the complexities of the full transformer architecture. And because of the recurrent dependency, we can use beam search to swiftly filter out undesired candidates with the draft head. The outcome is a method that combines the simplicity of single-model design and avoids the need to create a data-dependent tree attention structure only for inference in Medusa. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several popular open source language models, along with a comprehensive analysis of the trade-offs involved in adopting this approach.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

Modeling users' dynamic and evolving preferences from their historical behaviors is challenging and crucial for recommendation systems. Previous methods employ sequential neural networks (e.g., Recurrent Neural Network) to encode users' historical interactions from left to right into hidden representations for making recommendations. Although these methods achieve satisfactory results, they often assume a rigidly ordered sequence which is not always practical. We argue that such left-to-right unidirectional architectures restrict the power of the historical sequence representations. For this purpose, we introduce a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for sequential Recommendation (BERT4Rec). However, jointly conditioning on both left and right context in deep bidirectional model would make the training become trivial since each item can indirectly "see the target item". To address this problem, we train the bidirectional model using the Cloze task, predicting the masked items in the sequence by jointly conditioning on their left and right context. Comparing with predicting the next item at each position in a sequence, the Cloze task can produce more samples to train a more powerful bidirectional model. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models consistently.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

Constructing states from sequences of observations is an important component of reinforcement learning agents. One solution for state construction is to use recurrent neural networks. Back-propagation through time (BPTT), and real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) are two popular gradient-based methods for recurrent learning. BPTT requires complete trajectories of observations before it can compute the gradients and is unsuitable for online updates. RTRL can do online updates but scales poorly to large networks. In this paper, we propose two constraints that make RTRL scalable. We show that by either decomposing the network into independent modules or learning the network in stages, we can make RTRL scale linearly with the number of parameters. Unlike prior scalable gradient estimation algorithms, such as UORO and Truncated-BPTT, our algorithms do not add noise or bias to the gradient estimate. Instead, they trade off the functional capacity of the network for computationally efficient learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over Truncated-BPTT on a prediction benchmark inspired by animal learning and by doing policy evaluation of pre-trained policies for Atari 2600 games.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

The success of drug discovery and development relies on the precise prediction of molecular activities and properties. While in silico molecular property prediction has shown remarkable potential, its use has been limited so far to assays for which large amounts of data are available. In this study, we use a fine-tuned large language model to integrate biological assays based on their textual information, coupled with Barlow Twins, a Siamese neural network using a novel self-supervised learning approach. This architecture uses both assay information and molecular fingerprints to extract the true molecular information. TwinBooster enables the prediction of properties of unseen bioassays and molecules by providing state-of-the-art zero-shot learning tasks. Remarkably, our artificial intelligence pipeline shows excellent performance on the FS-Mol benchmark. This breakthrough demonstrates the application of deep learning to critical property prediction tasks where data is typically scarce. By accelerating the early identification of active molecules in drug discovery and development, this method has the potential to help streamline the identification of novel therapeutics.

Within this decade, quantum computers are predicted to outperform conventional computers in terms of processing power and have a disruptive effect on a variety of business sectors. It is predicted that the financial sector would be one of the first to benefit from quantum computing both in the short and long terms. In this research work we use Hybrid Quantum Neural networks to present a quantum machine learning approach for Continuous variable prediction.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

The growth in the number of parameters of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a significant surge in computational requirements, making them challenging and costly to deploy. Speculative decoding (SD) leverages smaller models to efficiently propose future tokens, which are then verified by the LLM in parallel. Small models that utilise activations from the LLM currently achieve the fastest decoding speeds. However, we identify several limitations of SD models including the lack of on-policyness during training and partial observability. To address these shortcomings, we propose a more grounded architecture for small models by introducing a Mixture of Attentions for SD. Our novel architecture can be applied in two scenarios: a conventional single device deployment and a novel client-server deployment where the small model is hosted on a consumer device and the LLM on a server. In a single-device scenario, we demonstrate state-of-the-art speedups improving EAGLE-2 by 9.5% and its acceptance length by 25%. In a client-server setting, our experiments demonstrate: 1) state-of-the-art latencies with minimal calls to the server for different network conditions, and 2) in the event of a complete disconnection, our approach can maintain higher accuracy compared to other SD methods and demonstrates advantages over API calls to LLMs, which would otherwise be unable to continue the generation process.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Predictive coding networks are neuroscience-inspired models with roots in both Bayesian statistics and neuroscience. Training such models, however, is quite inefficient and unstable. In this work, we show how by simply changing the temporal scheduling of the update rule for the synaptic weights leads to an algorithm that is much more efficient and stable than the original one, and has theoretical guarantees in terms of convergence. The proposed algorithm, that we call incremental predictive coding (iPC) is also more biologically plausible than the original one, as it it fully automatic. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that iPC constantly performs better than the original formulation on a large number of benchmarks for image classification, as well as for the training of both conditional and masked language models, in terms of test accuracy, efficiency, and convergence with respect to a large set of hyperparameters.

The traditional personality models only yield binary results. This paper presents a novel approach for training personality detection models that produce continuous output values, using mixed strategies. By leveraging the PANDORA dataset, which includes extensive personality labeling of Reddit comments, we developed models that predict the Big Five personality traits with high accuracy. Our approach involves fine-tuning a RoBERTa-base model with various strategies such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) integration, and hyperparameter tuning. The results demonstrate that our models significantly outperform traditional binary classification methods, offering precise continuous outputs for personality traits, thus enhancing applications in AI, psychology, human resources, marketing and health care fields.

Recent large-scale neural autoregressive sequence models have shown impressive performances on a variety of natural language generation tasks. However, their generated sequences often exhibit degenerate properties such as non-termination, undesirable repetition, and premature termination, when generated with decoding algorithms such as greedy search, beam search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling. In this paper, we focus on the problem of non-terminating sequences resulting from an incomplete decoding algorithm. We first define an incomplete probable decoding algorithm which includes greedy search, top-k sampling, and nucleus sampling, beyond the incomplete decoding algorithm originally put forward by Welleck et al. (2020). We then propose a non-monotonic self-terminating language model, which significantly relaxes the constraint of monotonically increasing termination probability in the originally proposed self-terminating language model by Welleck et al. (2020), to address the issue of non-terminating sequences when using incomplete probable decoding algorithms. We prove that our proposed model prevents non-terminating sequences when using not only incomplete probable decoding algorithms but also beam search. We empirically validate our model on sequence completion tasks with various architectures.

Knowledge of mixtures' phase equilibria is crucial in nature and technical chemistry. Phase equilibria calculations of mixtures require activity coefficients. However, experimental data on activity coefficients is often limited due to high cost of experiments. For an accurate and efficient prediction of activity coefficients, machine learning approaches have been recently developed. However, current machine learning approaches still extrapolate poorly for activity coefficients of unknown molecules. In this work, we introduce the SMILES-to-Properties-Transformer (SPT), a natural language processing network to predict binary limiting activity coefficients from SMILES codes. To overcome the limitations of available experimental data, we initially train our network on a large dataset of synthetic data sampled from COSMO-RS (10 Million data points) and then fine-tune the model on experimental data (20 870 data points). This training strategy enables SPT to accurately predict limiting activity coefficients even for unknown molecules, cutting the mean prediction error in half compared to state-of-the-art models for activity coefficient predictions such as COSMO-RS, UNIFAC, and improving on recent machine learning approaches.

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Learning compatible representations enables the interchangeable use of semantic features as models are updated over time. This is particularly relevant in search and retrieval systems where it is crucial to avoid reprocessing of the gallery images with the updated model. While recent research has shown promising empirical evidence, there is still a lack of comprehensive theoretical understanding about learning compatible representations. In this paper, we demonstrate that the stationary representations learned by the d-Simplex fixed classifier optimally approximate compatibility representation according to the two inequality constraints of its formal definition. This not only establishes a solid foundation for future works in this line of research but also presents implications that can be exploited in practical learning scenarios. An exemplary application is the now-standard practice of downloading and fine-tuning new pre-trained models. Specifically, we show the strengths and critical issues of stationary representations in the case in which a model undergoing sequential fine-tuning is asynchronously replaced by downloading a better-performing model pre-trained elsewhere. Such a representation enables seamless delivery of retrieval service (i.e., no reprocessing of gallery images) and offers improved performance without operational disruptions during model replacement. Code available at: https://github.com/miccunifi/iamcl2r.

Conditional neural text generation models generate high-quality outputs, but often concentrate around a mode when what we really want is a diverse set of options. We present a search algorithm to construct lattices encoding a massive number of generation options. First, we restructure decoding as a best-first search, which explores the space differently than beam search and improves efficiency by avoiding pruning paths. Second, we revisit the idea of hypothesis recombination: we can identify pairs of similar generation candidates during search and merge them as an approximation. On both summarization and machine translation, we show that our algorithm encodes thousands of diverse options that remain grammatical and high-quality into one lattice. This algorithm provides a foundation for building downstream generation applications on top of massive-scale diverse outputs.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have emerged as an efficient alternative to transformers for long-context sequence modeling. However, despite their growing adoption, SSMs lack the interpretability tools that have been crucial for understanding and improving attention-based architectures. While recent efforts provide insights into Mamba's internal mechanisms, they do not explicitly decompose token-wise contributions, leaving gaps in understanding how Mamba selectively processes sequences across layers. In this work, we introduce LaTIM, a novel token-level decomposition method for both Mamba-1 and Mamba-2 that enables fine-grained interpretability. We extensively evaluate our method across diverse tasks, including machine translation, copying, and retrieval-based generation, demonstrating its effectiveness in revealing Mamba's token-to-token interaction patterns.

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may experience different stages defined by the experiment, stimuli, or behavioral states, and hence functional interactions can change over time. To model dynamically changing functional interactions, prior work employs state-switching generalized linear models with hidden Markov models (i.e., HMM-GLMs). However, we argue they lack biological plausibility, as functional interactions are shaped and confined by the underlying anatomical connectome. Here, we propose a novel prior-informed state-switching GLM. We introduce both a Gaussian prior and a one-hot prior over the GLM in each state. The priors are learnable. We will show that the learned prior should capture the state-constant interaction, shedding light on the underlying anatomical connectome and revealing more likely physical neuron interactions. The state-dependent interaction modeled by each GLM offers traceability to capture functional variations across multiple brain states. Our methods effectively recover true interaction structures in simulated data, achieve the highest predictive likelihood with real neural datasets, and render interaction structures and hidden states more interpretable when applied to real neural data.

The maritime industry's continuous commitment to sustainability has led to a dedicated exploration of methods to reduce vessel fuel consumption. This paper undertakes this challenge through a machine learning approach, leveraging a real-world dataset spanning two years of a ferry in west coast Canada. Our focus centers on the creation of a time series forecasting model given the dynamic and static states, actions, and disturbances. This model is designed to predict dynamic states based on the actions provided, subsequently serving as an evaluative tool to assess the proficiency of the ferry's operation under the captain's guidance. Additionally, it lays the foundation for future optimization algorithms, providing valuable feedback on decision-making processes. To facilitate future studies, our code is available at https://github.com/pagand/model_optimze_vessel/tree/AAAI

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

We show that deep belief networks with binary hidden units can approximate any multivariate probability density under very mild integrability requirements on the parental density of the visible nodes. The approximation is measured in the L^q-norm for qin[1,infty] (q=infty corresponding to the supremum norm) and in Kullback-Leibler divergence. Furthermore, we establish sharp quantitative bounds on the approximation error in terms of the number of hidden units.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.

Deep neural network (DNN) deployment has been confined to larger hardware devices due to their expensive computational requirements. This challenge has recently reached another scale with the emergence of large language models (LLMs). In order to reduce both their memory footprint and latency, a promising technique is quantization. It consists in converting floating point representations to low bit-width fixed point representations, usually by assuming a uniform mapping onto a regular grid. This process, referred to in the literature as uniform quantization, may however be ill-suited as most DNN weights and activations follow a bell-shaped distribution. This is even worse on LLMs whose weight distributions are known to exhibit large, high impact, outlier values. In this work, we propose an improvement over the most commonly adopted way to tackle this limitation in deep learning models quantization, namely, non-uniform quantization. NUPES leverages automorphisms to preserve the scalar multiplications. Such transformations are derived from power functions. However, the optimization of the exponent parameter and weight values remains a challenging and novel problem which could not be solved with previous post training optimization techniques which only learn to round up or down weight values in order to preserve the predictive function. We circumvent this limitation with a new paradigm: learning new quantized weights over the entire quantized space. Similarly, we enable the optimization of the power exponent, i.e. the optimization of the quantization operator itself during training by alleviating all the numerical instabilities. The resulting predictive function is compatible with integer-only low-bit inference. We show the ability of the method to achieve state-of-the-art compression rates in both, data-free and data-driven configurations.

Tokenization imposes a fixed granularity on the input text, freezing how a language model operates on data and how far in the future it predicts. Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) and similar schemes split text once, build a static vocabulary, and leave the model stuck with that choice. We relax this rigidity by introducing an autoregressive U-Net that learns to embed its own tokens as it trains. The network reads raw bytes, pools them into words, then pairs of words, then up to 4 words, giving it a multi-scale view of the sequence. At deeper stages, the model must predict further into the future -- anticipating the next few words rather than the next byte -- so deeper stages focus on broader semantic patterns while earlier stages handle fine details. When carefully tuning and controlling pretraining compute, shallow hierarchies tie strong BPE baselines, and deeper hierarchies have a promising trend. Because tokenization now lives inside the model, the same system can handle character-level tasks and carry knowledge across low-resource languages.

We introduce Masked Trajectory Models (MTM) as a generic abstraction for sequential decision making. MTM takes a trajectory, such as a state-action sequence, and aims to reconstruct the trajectory conditioned on random subsets of the same trajectory. By training with a highly randomized masking pattern, MTM learns versatile networks that can take on different roles or capabilities, by simply choosing appropriate masks at inference time. For example, the same MTM network can be used as a forward dynamics model, inverse dynamics model, or even an offline RL agent. Through extensive experiments in several continuous control tasks, we show that the same MTM network -- i.e. same weights -- can match or outperform specialized networks trained for the aforementioned capabilities. Additionally, we find that state representations learned by MTM can significantly accelerate the learning speed of traditional RL algorithms. Finally, in offline RL benchmarks, we find that MTM is competitive with specialized offline RL algorithms, despite MTM being a generic self-supervised learning method without any explicit RL components. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/mtm

Automatic methods for generating state-of-the-art neural network architectures without human experts have generated significant attention recently. This is because of the potential to remove human experts from the design loop which can reduce costs and decrease time to model deployment. Neural architecture search (NAS) techniques have improved significantly in their computational efficiency since the original NAS was proposed. This reduction in computation is enabled via weight sharing such as in Efficient Neural Architecture Search (ENAS). However, recently a body of work confirms our discovery that ENAS does not do significantly better than random search with weight sharing, contradicting the initial claims of the authors. We provide an explanation for this phenomenon by investigating the interpretability of the ENAS controller's hidden state. We find models sampled from identical controller hidden states have no correlation with various graph similarity metrics, so no notion of structural similarity is learned. This failure mode implies the RNN controller does not condition on past architecture choices. Lastly, we propose a solution to this failure mode by forcing the controller's hidden state to encode pasts decisions by training it with a memory buffer of previously sampled architectures. Doing this improves hidden state interpretability by increasing the correlation between controller hidden states and graph similarity metrics.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

We approach designing a state-space model for deep learning applications through its dual representation, the transfer function, and uncover a highly efficient sequence parallel inference algorithm that is state-free: unlike other proposed algorithms, state-free inference does not incur any significant memory or computational cost with an increase in state size. We achieve this using properties of the proposed frequency domain transfer function parametrization, which enables direct computation of its corresponding convolutional kernel's spectrum via a single Fast Fourier Transform. Our experimental results across multiple sequence lengths and state sizes illustrates, on average, a 35% training speed improvement over S4 layers -- parametrized in time-domain -- on the Long Range Arena benchmark, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performances over other attention-free approaches. Moreover, we report improved perplexity in language modeling over a long convolutional Hyena baseline, by simply introducing our transfer function parametrization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ruke1ire/RTF.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly increasing in size, with the number of parameters becoming a key factor in the success of many commercial models, such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Bard. Even the recently released publicly accessible models for commercial usage, such as Falcon and Llama2, come equipped with billions of parameters. This significant increase in the number of parameters makes deployment and operation very costly. The remarkable progress in the field of quantization for large neural networks in general and LLMs in particular, has made these models more accessible by enabling them to be deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Quantized models generally demonstrate comparable performance levels to their unquantized base counterparts. Nonetheless, there exists a notable gap in our comprehensive understanding of how these quantized models respond to hyperparameters, such as temperature, max new tokens, and topk, particularly for next word prediction. The present analysis reveals that nf4 and fp4 are equally proficient 4-bit quantization techniques, characterized by similar attributes such as inference speed, memory consumption, and the quality of generated content. the study identifies nf4 as displaying greater resilience to temperature variations in the case of the llama2 series of models at lower temperature, while fp4 and fp4-dq proves to be a more suitable choice for falcon series of models. It is noteworthy that, in general, 4-bit quantized models of varying sizes exhibit higher sensitivity to temperature in the range of 0.5 to 0.8, unlike their unquantized counterparts. Additionally, int8 quantization is associated with significantly slower inference speeds, whereas unquantized bfloat16 models consistently yield the fastest inference speeds across models of all sizes.

Implementing Boolean functions with circuits consisting of logic gates is fundamental in digital computer design. However, the implemented circuit must be exactly equivalent, which hinders generative neural approaches on this task due to their occasionally wrong predictions. In this study, we introduce a generative neural model, the "Circuit Transformer", which eliminates such wrong predictions and produces logic circuits strictly equivalent to given Boolean functions. The main idea is a carefully designed decoding mechanism that builds a circuit step-by-step by generating tokens, which has beneficial "cutoff properties" that block a candidate token once it invalidate equivalence. In such a way, the proposed model works similar to typical LLMs while logical equivalence is strictly preserved. A Markov decision process formulation is also proposed for optimizing certain objectives of circuits. Experimentally, we trained an 88-million-parameter Circuit Transformer to generate equivalent yet more compact forms of input circuits, outperforming existing neural approaches on both synthetic and real world benchmarks, without any violation of equivalence constraints.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

We present GameNGen, the first game engine powered entirely by a neural model that enables real-time interaction with a complex environment over long trajectories at high quality. GameNGen can interactively simulate the classic game DOOM at over 20 frames per second on a single TPU. Next frame prediction achieves a PSNR of 29.4, comparable to lossy JPEG compression. Human raters are only slightly better than random chance at distinguishing short clips of the game from clips of the simulation. GameNGen is trained in two phases: (1) an RL-agent learns to play the game and the training sessions are recorded, and (2) a diffusion model is trained to produce the next frame, conditioned on the sequence of past frames and actions. Conditioning augmentations enable stable auto-regressive generation over long trajectories.

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as a promising alternative to the popular transformer-based models and have been increasingly gaining attention. Compared to transformers, SSMs excel at tasks with sequential data or longer contexts, demonstrating comparable performances with significant efficiency gains. In this survey, we provide a coherent and systematic overview for SSMs, including their theoretical motivations, mathematical formulations, comparison with existing model classes, and various applications. We divide the SSM series into three main sections, providing a detailed introduction to the original SSM, the structured SSM represented by S4, and the selective SSM typified by Mamba. We put an emphasis on technicality, and highlight the various key techniques introduced to address the effectiveness and efficiency of SSMs. We hope this manuscript serves as an introduction for researchers to explore the theoretical foundations of SSMs.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Recent advancements in sequence modeling have led to the emergence of Structured State Space Models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Transformers, addressing challenges in long-range dependency modeling and computational efficiency. While RNNs suffer from vanishing gradients and sequential inefficiencies, and Transformers face quadratic complexity, SSMs leverage structured recurrence and state-space representations to achieve superior long-sequence processing with linear or near-linear complexity. This survey provides a comprehensive review of SSMs, tracing their evolution from the foundational S4 model to its successors like Mamba, Simplified Structured State Space Sequence Model (S5), and Jamba, highlighting their improvements in computational efficiency, memory optimization, and inference speed. By comparing SSMs with traditional sequence models across domains such as natural language processing (NLP), speech recognition, vision, and time-series forecasting, we demonstrate their advantages in handling long-range dependencies while reducing computational overhead. Despite their potential, challenges remain in areas such as training optimization, hybrid modeling, and interpretability. This survey serves as a structured guide for researchers and practitioners, detailing the advancements, trade-offs, and future directions of SSM-based architectures in AI and deep learning.

The possibility of dynamically modifying the computational load of neural models at inference time is crucial for on-device processing, where computational power is limited and time-varying. Established approaches for neural model compression exist, but they provide architecturally static models. In this paper, we investigate the use of early-exit architectures, that rely on intermediate exit branches, applied to large-vocabulary speech recognition. This allows for the development of dynamic models that adjust their computational cost to the available resources and recognition performance. Unlike previous works, besides using pre-trained backbones we also train the model from scratch with an early-exit architecture. Experiments on public datasets show that early-exit architectures from scratch not only preserve performance levels when using fewer encoder layers, but also improve task accuracy as compared to using single-exit models or using pre-trained models. Additionally, we investigate an exit selection strategy based on posterior probabilities as an alternative to frame-based entropy.