Daily Papers

Due to the sheer size of software logs, developers rely on automated techniques for log analysis. One of the first and most important steps of automated log analysis is log abstraction, which parses the raw logs into a structured format. Prior log abstraction techniques aim to identify and abstract all the dynamic variables in logs and output a static log template for automated log analysis. However, these abstracted dynamic variables may also contain important information that is useful to different tasks in log analysis. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics of dynamic variables and their importance in practice, and explore the potential of a variable-aware log abstraction technique. Through manual investigations and surveys with practitioners, we find that different categories of dynamic variables record various information that can be important depending on the given tasks, the distinction of dynamic variables in log abstraction can further assist in log analysis. We then propose a deep learning based log abstraction approach, named VALB, which can identify different categories of dynamic variables and preserve the value of specified categories of dynamic variables along with the log templates (i.e., variable-aware log abstraction). Through the evaluation on a widely used log abstraction benchmark, we find that VALB outperforms other state-of-the-art log abstraction techniques on general log abstraction (i.e., when abstracting all the dynamic variables) and also achieves a high variable-aware log abstraction accuracy that further identifies the category of the dynamic variables. Our study highlights the potential of leveraging the important information recorded in the dynamic variables to further improve the process of log analysis.

The static synaptic connectivity of neuronal circuits stands in direct contrast to the dynamics of their function. As in changing community interactions, different neurons can participate actively in various combinations to effect behaviors at different times. We introduce an unsupervised approach to learn the dynamic affinities between neurons in live, behaving animals, and to reveal which communities form among neurons at different times. The inference occurs in two major steps. First, pairwise non-linear affinities between neuronal traces from brain-wide calcium activity are organized by non-negative tensor factorization (NTF). Each factor specifies which groups of neurons are most likely interacting for an inferred interval in time, and for which animals. Finally, a generative model that allows for weighted community detection is applied to the functional motifs produced by NTF to reveal a dynamic functional connectome. Since time codes the different experimental variables (e.g., application of chemical stimuli), this provides an atlas of neural motifs active during separate stages of an experiment (e.g., stimulus application or spontaneous behaviors). Results from our analysis are experimentally validated, confirming that our method is able to robustly predict causal interactions between neurons to generate behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/dyballa/dynamic-connectomes.

Python type inference is challenging in practice. Due to its dynamic properties and extensive dependencies on third-party libraries without type annotations, the performance of traditional static analysis techniques is limited. Although semantics in source code can help manifest intended usage for variables (thus help infer types), they are usually ignored by existing tools. In this paper, we propose PYInfer, an end-to-end learning-based type inference tool that automatically generates type annotations for Python variables. The key insight is that contextual code semantics is critical in inferring the type for a variable. For each use of a variable, we collect a few tokens within its contextual scope, and design a neural network to predict its type. One challenge is that it is difficult to collect a high-quality human-labeled training dataset for this purpose. To address this issue, we apply an existing static analyzer to generate the ground truth for variables in source code. Our main contribution is a novel approach to statically infer variable types effectively and efficiently. Formulating the type inference as a classification problem, we can handle user-defined types and predict type probabilities for each variable. Our model achieves 91.2% accuracy on classifying 11 basic types in Python and 81.2% accuracy on classifying 500 most common types. Our results substantially outperform the state-of-the-art type annotators. Moreover, PYInfer achieves 5.2X more code coverage and is 187X faster than a state-of-the-art learning-based tool. With similar time consumption, our model annotates 5X more variables than a state-of-the-art static analysis tool. Our model also outperforms a learning-based function-level annotator on annotating types for variables and function arguments. All our tools and datasets are publicly available to facilitate future research in this direction.

Mediation analysis learns the causal effect transmitted via mediator variables between treatments and outcomes and receives increasing attention in various scientific domains to elucidate causal relations. Most existing works focus on point-exposure studies where each subject only receives one treatment at a single time point. However, there are a number of applications (e.g., mobile health) where the treatments are sequentially assigned over time and the dynamic mediation effects are of primary interest. Proposing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, we are the first to evaluate dynamic mediation effects in settings with infinite horizons. We decompose the average treatment effect into an immediate direct effect, an immediate mediation effect, a delayed direct effect, and a delayed mediation effect. Upon the identification of each effect component, we further develop robust and semi-parametrically efficient estimators under the RL framework to infer these causal effects. The superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies, theoretical results, and an analysis of a mobile health dataset.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the underlying mathematical expressions from observed data. Inspired by the success of deep learning, recent efforts have focused on two categories for SR methods. One is using a neural network or genetic programming to search the expression tree directly. Although this has shown promising results, the large search space poses difficulties in learning constant factors and processing high-dimensional problems. Another approach is leveraging a transformer-based model training on synthetic data and offers advantages in inference speed. However, this method is limited to fixed small numbers of dimensions and may encounter inference problems when given data is out-of-distribution compared to the synthetic data. In this work, we propose DySymNet, a novel neural-guided Dynamic Symbolic Network for SR. Instead of searching for expressions within a large search space, we explore DySymNet with various structures and optimize them to identify expressions that better-fitting the data. With a topology structure like neural networks, DySymNet not only tackles the challenge of high-dimensional problems but also proves effective in optimizing constants. Based on extensive numerical experiments using low-dimensional public standard benchmarks and the well-known SRBench with more variables, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of fitting accuracy and robustness to noise.

Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) is a state-of-the-art method for solving multi-stage stochastic optimization, widely used for modeling real-world process optimization tasks. Unfortunately, SDDP has a worst-case complexity that scales exponentially in the number of decision variables, which severely limits applicability to only low dimensional problems. To overcome this limitation, we extend SDDP by introducing a trainable neural model that learns to map problem instances to a piece-wise linear value function within intrinsic low-dimension space, which is architected specifically to interact with a base SDDP solver, so that can accelerate optimization performance on new instances. The proposed Neural Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (nu-SDDP) continually self-improves by solving successive problems. An empirical investigation demonstrates that nu-SDDP can significantly reduce problem solving cost without sacrificing solution quality over competitors such as SDDP and reinforcement learning algorithms, across a range of synthetic and real-world process optimization problems.

Chain-of-thoughts (CoT) requires large language models (LLMs) to generate intermediate steps before reaching the final answer, and has been proven effective to help LLMs solve complex reasoning tasks. However, the inner mechanism of CoT still remains largely unclear. In this paper, we empirically study the role of CoT tokens in LLMs on two compositional tasks: multi-digit multiplication and dynamic programming. While CoT is essential for solving these problems, we find that preserving only tokens that store intermediate results would achieve comparable performance. Furthermore, we observe that storing intermediate results in an alternative latent form will not affect model performance. We also randomly intervene some values in CoT, and notice that subsequent CoT tokens and the final answer would change correspondingly. These findings suggest that CoT tokens may function like variables in computer programs but with potential drawbacks like unintended shortcuts and computational complexity limits between tokens. The code and data are available at https://github.com/solitaryzero/CoTs_are_Variables.

While speculative decoding has recently appeared as a promising direction for accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs), the speedup and scalability are strongly bounded by the token acceptance rate. Prevalent methods usually organize predicted tokens as independent chains or fixed token trees, which fails to generalize to diverse query distributions. In this paper, we propose DySpec, a faster speculative decoding algorithm with a novel dynamic token tree structure. We begin by bridging the draft distribution and acceptance rate from intuitive and empirical clues, and successfully show that the two variables are strongly correlated. Based on this, we employ a greedy strategy to dynamically expand the token tree at run time. Theoretically, we show that our method can achieve optimal results under mild assumptions. Empirically, DySpec yields a higher acceptance rate and speedup than fixed trees. DySpec can drastically improve the throughput and reduce the latency of token generation across various data distribution and model sizes, which significantly outperforms strong competitors, including Specinfer and Sequoia. Under low temperature setting, DySpec can improve the throughput up to 9.1times and reduce the latency up to 9.4times on Llama2-70B. Under high temperature setting, DySpec can also improve the throughput up to 6.21times, despite the increasing difficulty of speculating more than one token per step for draft model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have grown rapidly in size, creating significant challenges for efficient deployment on resource-constrained hardware. In this paper, we introduce Dynamic-Length Float (DFloat11), a lossless compression framework that reduces LLM size by 30% while preserving outputs that are bit-for-bit identical to the original model. DFloat11 is motivated by the low entropy in the BFloat16 weight representation of LLMs, which reveals significant inefficiency in existing storage format. By applying entropy coding, DFloat11 assigns dynamic-length encodings to weights based on frequency, achieving near information-optimal compression without any loss of precision. To facilitate efficient inference with dynamic-length encodings, we develop a custom GPU kernel for fast online decompression. Our design incorporates the following: (i) decomposition of memory-intensive lookup tables (LUTs) into compact LUTs that fit in GPU SRAM, (ii) a two-phase kernel for coordinating thread read/write positions using lightweight auxiliary variables, and (iii) transformer-block-level decompression to minimize latency. Experiments on recent models, including Llama-3.1, Qwen-2.5, and Gemma-3, validates our hypothesis that DFloat11 achieves around 30% model size reduction while preserving bit-for-bit exact outputs. Compared to a potential alternative of offloading parts of an uncompressed model to the CPU to meet memory constraints, DFloat11 achieves 1.9-38.8x higher throughput in token generation. With a fixed GPU memory budget, DFloat11 enables 5.3-13.17x longer context lengths than uncompressed models. Notably, our method enables lossless inference of Llama-3.1-405B, an 810GB model, on a single node equipped with 8x80GB GPUs. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/LeanModels/DFloat11.

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) capture the dynamic evolution of latent variables over time, blending patterns and multimodality in a generative system. Despite the proficiency of LDM in various applications, such as text-to-image generation, facilitated by robust text encoders and a variational autoencoder, the critical need to deploy large generative models on edge devices compels a search for more compact yet effective alternatives. Post Training Quantization (PTQ), a method to compress the operational size of deep learning models, encounters challenges when applied to LDM due to temporal and structural complexities. This study proposes a quantization strategy that efficiently quantize LDMs, leveraging Signal-to-Quantization-Noise Ratio (SQNR) as a pivotal metric for evaluation. By treating the quantization discrepancy as relative noise and identifying sensitive part(s) of a model, we propose an efficient quantization approach encompassing both global and local strategies. The global quantization process mitigates relative quantization noise by initiating higher-precision quantization on sensitive blocks, while local treatments address specific challenges in quantization-sensitive and time-sensitive modules. The outcomes of our experiments reveal that the implementation of both global and local treatments yields a highly efficient and effective Post Training Quantization (PTQ) of LDMs.

The Reinforcement Learning (RL) building blocks, i.e. Q-functions and policy networks, usually take elements from the cartesian product of two domains as input. In particular, the input of the Q-function is both the state and the action, and in multi-task problems (Meta-RL) the policy can take a state and a context. Standard architectures tend to ignore these variables' underlying interpretations and simply concatenate their features into a single vector. In this work, we argue that this choice may lead to poor gradient estimation in actor-critic algorithms and high variance learning steps in Meta-RL algorithms. To consider the interaction between the input variables, we suggest using a Hypernetwork architecture where a primary network determines the weights of a conditional dynamic network. We show that this approach improves the gradient approximation and reduces the learning step variance, which both accelerates learning and improves the final performance. We demonstrate a consistent improvement across different locomotion tasks and different algorithms both in RL (TD3 and SAC) and in Meta-RL (MAML and PEARL).

We revisit the structure learning problem for dynamic Bayesian networks and propose a method that simultaneously estimates contemporaneous (intra-slice) and time-lagged (inter-slice) relationships between variables in a time-series. Our approach is score-based, and revolves around minimizing a penalized loss subject to an acyclicity constraint. To solve this problem, we leverage a recent algebraic result characterizing the acyclicity constraint as a smooth equality constraint. The resulting algorithm, which we call DYNOTEARS, outperforms other methods on simulated data, especially in high-dimensions as the number of variables increases. We also apply this algorithm on real datasets from two different domains, finance and molecular biology, and analyze the resulting output. Compared to state-of-the-art methods for learning dynamic Bayesian networks, our method is both scalable and accurate on real data. The simple formulation and competitive performance of our method make it suitable for a variety of problems where one seeks to learn connections between variables across time.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Practical identifiability is a critical concern in data-driven modeling of mathematical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for practical identifiability analysis to evaluate parameter identifiability in mathematical models of biological systems. Starting with a rigorous mathematical definition of practical identifiability, we demonstrate its equivalence to the invertibility of the Fisher Information Matrix. Our framework establishes the relationship between practical identifiability and coordinate identifiability, introducing a novel metric that simplifies and accelerates the evaluation of parameter identifiability compared to the profile likelihood method. Additionally, we introduce new regularization terms to address non-identifiable parameters, enabling uncertainty quantification and improving model reliability. To guide experimental design, we present an optimal data collection algorithm that ensures all model parameters are practically identifiable. Applications to Hill functions, neural networks, and dynamic biological models demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed computational framework in uncovering critical biological processes and identifying key observable variables.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Dynamic feature selection, where we sequentially query features to make accurate predictions with a minimal budget, is a promising paradigm to reduce feature acquisition costs and provide transparency into a model's predictions. The problem is challenging, however, as it requires both predicting with arbitrary feature sets and learning a policy to identify valuable selections. Here, we take an information-theoretic perspective and prioritize features based on their mutual information with the response variable. The main challenge is implementing this policy, and we design a new approach that estimates the mutual information in a discriminative rather than generative fashion. Building on our approach, we then introduce several further improvements: allowing variable feature budgets across samples, enabling non-uniform feature costs, incorporating prior information, and exploring modern architectures to handle partial inputs. Our experiments show that our method provides consistent gains over recent methods across a variety of datasets.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data.

Price responsiveness is a major feature of end use customers (EUCs) that participate in demand response (DR) programs, and has been conventionally modeled with static demand functions, which take the electricity price as the input and the aggregate energy consumption as the output. This, however, neglects the inherent temporal correlation of the EUC behaviors, and may result in large errors when predicting the actual responses of EUCs in real-time pricing (RTP) programs. In this paper, we propose a dynamical DR model so as to capture the temporal behavior of the EUCs. The states in the proposed dynamical DR model can be explicitly chosen, in which case the model can be represented by a linear function or a multi-layer feedforward neural network, or implicitly chosen, in which case the model can be represented by a recurrent neural network or a long short-term memory unit network. In both cases, the dynamical DR model can be learned from historical price and energy consumption data. Numerical simulation illustrated how the states are chosen and also showed the proposed dynamical DR model significantly outperforms the static ones.

Deep neural networks have become increasingly of interest in dynamical system prediction, but out-of-distribution generalization and long-term stability still remains challenging. In this work, we treat the domain parameters of dynamical systems as factors of variation of the data generating process. By leveraging ideas from supervised disentanglement and causal factorization, we aim to separate the domain parameters from the dynamics in the latent space of generative models. In our experiments we model dynamics both in phase space and in video sequences and conduct rigorous OOD evaluations. Results indicate that disentangled VAEs adapt better to domain parameters spaces that were not present in the training data. At the same time, disentanglement can improve the long-term and out-of-distribution predictions of state-of-the-art models in video sequences.

Generalizing policies across different domains with dynamics mismatch poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. For example, a robot learns the policy in a simulator, but when it is deployed in the real world, the dynamics of the environment may be different. Given the source and target domain with dynamics mismatch, we consider the online dynamics adaptation problem, in which case the agent can access sufficient source domain data while online interactions with the target domain are limited. Existing research has attempted to solve the problem from the dynamics discrepancy perspective. In this work, we reveal the limitations of these methods and explore the problem from the value difference perspective via a novel insight on the value consistency across domains. Specifically, we present the Value-Guided Data Filtering (VGDF) algorithm, which selectively shares transitions from the source domain based on the proximity of paired value targets across the two domains. Empirical results on various environments with kinematic and morphology shifts demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to prior approaches.

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

The dynamics of materials failure is one of the most critical phenomena in a range of scientific and engineering fields, from healthcare to structural materials to transportation. In this paper we propose a specially designed deep neural network, DyFraNet, which can predict dynamic fracture behaviors by identifying a complete history of fracture propagation - from cracking onset, as a crack grows through the material, modeled as a series of frames evolving over time and dependent on each other. Furthermore, this model can not only forecast future fracture processes but also backcast to elucidate the past fracture history. In this scenario, once provided with the outcome of a fracture event, the model will elucidate past events that led to this state and will predict the future evolution of the failure process. By comparing the predicted results with atomistic-level simulations and theory, we show that DyFraNet can capture dynamic fracture mechanics by accurately predicting how cracks develop over time, including measures such as the crack speed, as well as when cracks become unstable. We use GradCAM to interpret how DyFraNet perceives the relationship between geometric conditions and fracture dynamics and we find DyFraNet pays special attention to the areas around crack tips, which have a critical influence in the early stage of fracture propagation. In later stages, the model pays increased attention to the existing or newly formed damage distribution in the material. The proposed approach offers significant potential to accelerate the exploration of the dynamics in material design against fracture failures and can be beneficially adapted for all kinds of dynamical engineering problems.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is an equation-free method that aims at reconstructing the best linear fit from temporal datasets. In this paper, we show that DMD does not provide accurate approximation for datasets describing oscillatory dynamics, like spiral waves and relaxation oscillations, or spatio-temporal Turing instability. Inspired from the classical "divide and conquer" approach, we propose a piecewise version of DMD (pDMD) to overcome this problem. The main idea is to split the original dataset in N submatrices and then apply the exact (randomized) DMD method in each subset of the obtained partition. We describe the pDMD algorithm in detail and we introduce some error indicators to evaluate its performance when N is increased. Numerical experiments show that very accurate reconstructions are obtained by pDMD for datasets arising from time snapshots of some reaction-diffusion PDE systems, like the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, the lambda-omega system and the DIB morpho-chemical system for battery modeling.

Dynamical systems with complex behaviours, e.g. immune system cells interacting with a pathogen, are commonly modelled by splitting the behaviour into different regimes, or modes, each with simpler dynamics, and then learning the switching behaviour from one mode to another. Switching Dynamical Systems (SDS) are a powerful tool that automatically discovers these modes and mode-switching behaviour from time series data. While effective, these methods focus on independent objects, where the modes of one object are independent of the modes of the other objects. In this paper, we focus on the more general interacting object setting for switching dynamical systems, where the per-object dynamics also depends on an unknown and dynamically changing subset of other objects and their modes. To this end, we propose a novel graph-based approach for switching dynamical systems, GRAph Switching dynamical Systems (GRASS), in which we use a dynamic graph to characterize interactions between objects and learn both intra-object and inter-object mode-switching behaviour. We introduce two new datasets for this setting, a synthesized ODE-driven particles dataset and a real-world Salsa Couple Dancing dataset. Experiments show that GRASS can consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

Varying dynamics parameters in simulation is a popular Domain Randomization (DR) approach for overcoming the reality gap in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Nevertheless, DR heavily hinges on the choice of the sampling distribution of the dynamics parameters, since high variability is crucial to regularize the agent's behavior but notoriously leads to overly conservative policies when randomizing excessively. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address sim-to-real transfer, which automatically shapes dynamics distributions during training in simulation without requiring real-world data. We introduce DOmain RAndomization via Entropy MaximizatiON (DORAEMON), a constrained optimization problem that directly maximizes the entropy of the training distribution while retaining generalization capabilities. In achieving this, DORAEMON gradually increases the diversity of sampled dynamics parameters as long as the probability of success of the current policy is sufficiently high. We empirically validate the consistent benefits of DORAEMON in obtaining highly adaptive and generalizable policies, i.e. solving the task at hand across the widest range of dynamics parameters, as opposed to representative baselines from the DR literature. Notably, we also demonstrate the Sim2Real applicability of DORAEMON through its successful zero-shot transfer in a robotic manipulation setup under unknown real-world parameters.

The performance of an algorithm often critically depends on its parameter configuration. While a variety of automated algorithm configuration methods have been proposed to relieve users from the tedious and error-prone task of manually tuning parameters, there is still a lot of untapped potential as the learned configuration is static, i.e., parameter settings remain fixed throughout the run. However, it has been shown that some algorithm parameters are best adjusted dynamically during execution, e.g., to adapt to the current part of the optimization landscape. Thus far, this is most commonly achieved through hand-crafted heuristics. A promising recent alternative is to automatically learn such dynamic parameter adaptation policies from data. In this article, we give the first comprehensive account of this new field of automated dynamic algorithm configuration (DAC), present a series of recent advances, and provide a solid foundation for future research in this field. Specifically, we (i) situate DAC in the broader historical context of AI research; (ii) formalize DAC as a computational problem; (iii) identify the methods used in prior-art to tackle this problem; (iv) conduct empirical case studies for using DAC in evolutionary optimization, AI planning, and machine learning.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

We present a dynamic model in which the weights are conditioned on an input sample x and are learned to match those that would be obtained by finetuning a base model on x and its label y. This mapping between an input sample and network weights is approximated by a denoising diffusion model. The diffusion model we employ focuses on modifying a single layer of the base model and is conditioned on the input, activations, and output of this layer. Since the diffusion model is stochastic in nature, multiple initializations generate different networks, forming an ensemble, which leads to further improvements. Our experiments demonstrate the wide applicability of the method for image classification, 3D reconstruction, tabular data, speech separation, and natural language processing. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShaharLutatiPersonal/OCD

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an instantaneous increase of awareness, but the actual reward, i.e., a conversion, might occur far in the future. Furthermore, whether a conversion takes place depends on: how fast the awareness grows, its vanishing effects, and the synergy or interference with other advertising platforms. Previous work has investigated the Multi-Armed Bandit framework with the possibility of delayed and aggregated feedback, without a particular structure on how an action propagates in the future, disregarding possible dynamical effects. In this paper, we introduce a novel setting, the Dynamical Linear Bandits (DLB), an extension of the linear bandits characterized by a hidden state. When an action is performed, the learner observes a noisy reward whose mean is a linear function of the hidden state and of the action. Then, the hidden state evolves according to linear dynamics, affected by the performed action too. We start by introducing the setting, discussing the notion of optimal policy, and deriving an expected regret lower bound. Then, we provide an optimistic regret minimization algorithm, Dynamical Linear Upper Confidence Bound (DynLin-UCB), that suffers an expected regret of order mathcal{O} Big( d sqrt{T}{(1-rho)^{3/2}} Big), where rho is a measure of the stability of the system, and d is the dimension of the action vector. Finally, we conduct a numerical validation on a synthetic environment and on real-world data to show the effectiveness of DynLin-UCB in comparison with several baselines.

Feature selection helps reduce data acquisition costs in ML, but the standard approach is to train models with static feature subsets. Here, we consider the dynamic feature selection (DFS) problem where a model sequentially queries features based on the presently available information. DFS is often addressed with reinforcement learning, but we explore a simpler approach of greedily selecting features based on their conditional mutual information. This method is theoretically appealing but requires oracle access to the data distribution, so we develop a learning approach based on amortized optimization. The proposed method is shown to recover the greedy policy when trained to optimality, and it outperforms numerous existing feature selection methods in our experiments, thus validating it as a simple but powerful approach for this problem.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

Dynamic Algorithm Configuration (DAC) aims to dynamically control a target algorithm's hyperparameters in order to improve its performance. Several theoretical and empirical results have demonstrated the benefits of dynamically controlling hyperparameters in domains like evolutionary computation, AI Planning or deep learning. Replicating these results, as well as studying new methods for DAC, however, is difficult since existing benchmarks are often specialized and incompatible with the same interfaces. To facilitate benchmarking and thus research on DAC, we propose DACBench, a benchmark library that seeks to collect and standardize existing DAC benchmarks from different AI domains, as well as provide a template for new ones. For the design of DACBench, we focused on important desiderata, such as (i) flexibility, (ii) reproducibility, (iii) extensibility and (iv) automatic documentation and visualization. To show the potential, broad applicability and challenges of DAC, we explore how a set of six initial benchmarks compare in several dimensions of difficulty.

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a formal framework for modeling and solving sequential decision-making problems. In finite-time horizons such problems are relevant for instance for optimal stopping or specific supply chain problems, but also in the training of large language models. In contrast to infinite horizon MDPs optimal policies are not stationary, policies must be learned for every single epoch. In practice all parameters are often trained simultaneously, ignoring the inherent structure suggested by dynamic programming. This paper introduces a combination of dynamic programming and policy gradient called dynamic policy gradient, where the parameters are trained backwards in time. For the tabular softmax parametrisation we carry out the convergence analysis for simultaneous and dynamic policy gradient towards global optima, both in the exact and sampled gradient settings without regularisation. It turns out that the use of dynamic policy gradient training much better exploits the structure of finite-time problems which is reflected in improved convergence bounds.

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling framework grounded in phase space dynamics, where a phase space is defined as {an augmented space encompassing both position and velocity.} Leveraging insights from Stochastic Optimal Control, we construct a path measure in the phase space that enables efficient sampling. {In contrast to DMs, our framework demonstrates the capability to generate realistic data points at an early stage of dynamics propagation.} This early prediction sets the stage for efficient data generation by leveraging additional velocity information along the trajectory. On standard image generation benchmarks, our model yields favorable performance over baselines in the regime of small Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Furthermore, our approach rivals the performance of diffusion models equipped with efficient sampling techniques, underscoring its potential as a new tool generative modeling.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

State space models (SSMs) have shown remarkable empirical performance on many long sequence modeling tasks, but a theoretical understanding of these models is still lacking. In this work, we study the learning dynamics of linear SSMs to understand how covariance structure in data, latent state size, and initialization affect the evolution of parameters throughout learning with gradient descent. We show that focusing on the learning dynamics in the frequency domain affords analytical solutions under mild assumptions, and we establish a link between one-dimensional SSMs and the dynamics of deep linear feed-forward networks. Finally, we analyze how latent state over-parameterization affects convergence time and describe future work in extending our results to the study of deep SSMs with nonlinear connections. This work is a step toward a theory of learning dynamics in deep state space models.

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Dynamic shape computations have become critical in modern machine learning workloads, especially in emerging large language models. The success of these models has driven demand for deploying them to a diverse set of backend environments. In this paper, we present Relax, a compiler abstraction for optimizing end-to-end dynamic machine learning workloads. Relax introduces first-class symbolic shape annotations to track dynamic shape computations globally across the program. It also introduces a cross-level abstraction that encapsulates computational graphs, loop-level tensor programs, and library calls in a single representation to enable cross-level optimizations. We build an end-to-end compilation framework using the proposed approach to optimize dynamic shape models. Experimental results on large language models show that Relax delivers performance competitive with state-of-the-art hand-optimized systems across platforms and enables deployment of emerging dynamic models to a broader set of environments, including mobile phones, embedded devices, and web browsers.

The long-standing problem of novel view synthesis has many applications, notably in sports broadcasting. Photorealistic novel view synthesis of soccer actions, in particular, is of enormous interest to the broadcast industry. Yet only a few industrial solutions have been proposed, and even fewer that achieve near-broadcast quality of the synthetic replays. Except for their setup of multiple static cameras around the playfield, the best proprietary systems disclose close to no information about their inner workings. Leveraging multiple static cameras for such a task indeed presents a challenge rarely tackled in the literature, for a lack of public datasets: the reconstruction of a large-scale, mostly static environment, with small, fast-moving elements. Recently, the emergence of neural radiance fields has induced stunning progress in many novel view synthesis applications, leveraging deep learning principles to produce photorealistic results in the most challenging settings. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of basing a solution to the task on dynamic NeRFs, i.e., neural models purposed to reconstruct general dynamic content. We compose synthetic soccer environments and conduct multiple experiments using them, identifying key components that help reconstruct soccer scenes with dynamic NeRFs. We show that, although this approach cannot fully meet the quality requirements for the target application, it suggests promising avenues toward a cost-efficient, automatic solution. We also make our work dataset and code publicly available, with the goal to encourage further efforts from the research community on the task of novel view synthesis for dynamic soccer scenes. For code, data, and video results, please see https://soccernerfs.isach.be.

Neural network pruning offers an effective method for compressing a multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR) model with minimal performance loss. However, it entails several rounds of pruning and re-training needed to be run for each language. In this work, we propose the use of an adaptive masking approach in two scenarios for pruning a multilingual ASR model efficiently, each resulting in sparse monolingual models or a sparse multilingual model (named as Dynamic ASR Pathways). Our approach dynamically adapts the sub-network, avoiding premature decisions about a fixed sub-network structure. We show that our approach outperforms existing pruning methods when targeting sparse monolingual models. Further, we illustrate that Dynamic ASR Pathways jointly discovers and trains better sub-networks (pathways) of a single multilingual model by adapting from different sub-network initializations, thereby reducing the need for language-specific pruning.

Embedding polygonal mesh assets within photorealistic Neural Radience Fields (NeRF) volumes, such that they can be rendered and their dynamics simulated in a physically consistent manner with the NeRF, is under-explored from the system perspective of integrating NeRF into the traditional graphics pipeline. This paper designs a two-way coupling between mesh and NeRF during rendering and simulation. We first review the light transport equations for both mesh and NeRF, then distill them into an efficient algorithm for updating radiance and throughput along a cast ray with an arbitrary number of bounces. To resolve the discrepancy between the linear color space that the path tracer assumes and the sRGB color space that standard NeRF uses, we train NeRF with High Dynamic Range (HDR) images. We also present a strategy to estimate light sources and cast shadows on the NeRF. Finally, we consider how the hybrid surface-volumetric formulation can be efficiently integrated with a high-performance physics simulator that supports cloth, rigid and soft bodies. The full rendering and simulation system can be run on a GPU at interactive rates. We show that a hybrid system approach outperforms alternatives in visual realism for mesh insertion, because it allows realistic light transport from volumetric NeRF media onto surfaces, which affects the appearance of reflective/refractive surfaces and illumination of diffuse surfaces informed by the dynamic scene.

Dynamics models learned from visual observations have shown to be effective in various robotic manipulation tasks. One of the key questions for learning such dynamics models is what scene representation to use. Prior works typically assume representation at a fixed dimension or resolution, which may be inefficient for simple tasks and ineffective for more complicated tasks. In this work, we investigate how to learn dynamic and adaptive representations at different levels of abstraction to achieve the optimal trade-off between efficiency and effectiveness. Specifically, we construct dynamic-resolution particle representations of the environment and learn a unified dynamics model using graph neural networks (GNNs) that allows continuous selection of the abstraction level. During test time, the agent can adaptively determine the optimal resolution at each model-predictive control (MPC) step. We evaluate our method in object pile manipulation, a task we commonly encounter in cooking, agriculture, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical applications. Through comprehensive evaluations both in the simulation and the real world, we show that our method achieves significantly better performance than state-of-the-art fixed-resolution baselines at the gathering, sorting, and redistribution of granular object piles made with various instances like coffee beans, almonds, corn, etc.

Dynamic colored meshes (DCM) are widely used in various applications; however, these meshes may undergo different processes, such as compression or transmission, which can distort them and degrade their quality. To facilitate the development of objective metrics for DCMs and study the influence of typical distortions on their perception, we create the Tencent - dynamic colored mesh database (TDMD) containing eight reference DCM objects with six typical distortions. Using processed video sequences (PVS) derived from the DCM, we have conducted a large-scale subjective experiment that resulted in 303 distorted DCM samples with mean opinion scores, making the TDMD the largest available DCM database to our knowledge. This database enabled us to study the impact of different types of distortion on human perception and offer recommendations for DCM compression and related tasks. Additionally, we have evaluated three types of state-of-the-art objective metrics on the TDMD, including image-based, point-based, and video-based metrics, on the TDMD. Our experimental results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each metric, and we provide suggestions about the selection of metrics in practical DCM applications. The TDMD will be made publicly available at the following location: https://multimedia.tencent.com/resources/tdmd.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) can solve many NLP tasks in zero-shot settings, applications involving embodied agents remain problematic. In particular, complex plans that require multi-step reasoning become difficult and too costly as the context window grows. Planning requires understanding the likely effects of one's actions and identifying whether the current environment satisfies the goal state. While symbolic planners find optimal solutions quickly, they require a complete and accurate representation of the planning problem, severely limiting their use in practical scenarios. In contrast, modern LLMs cope with noisy observations and high levels of uncertainty when reasoning about a task. Our work presents LLM Dynamic Planner (LLM-DP): a neuro-symbolic framework where an LLM works hand-in-hand with a traditional planner to solve an embodied task. Given action-descriptions, LLM-DP solves Alfworld faster and more efficiently than a naive LLM ReAct baseline.

Dynamic radiance fields have emerged as a promising approach for generating novel views from a monocular video. However, previous methods enforce the geometric consistency to dynamic radiance fields only between adjacent input frames, making it difficult to represent the global scene geometry and degenerates at the viewpoint that is spatio-temporally distant from the input camera trajectory. To solve this problem, we introduce point-based dynamic radiance fields (Point-DynRF), a novel framework where the global geometric information and the volume rendering process are trained by neural point clouds and dynamic radiance fields, respectively. Specifically, we reconstruct neural point clouds directly from geometric proxies and optimize both radiance fields and the geometric proxies using our proposed losses, allowing them to complement each other. We validate the effectiveness of our method with experiments on the NVIDIA Dynamic Scenes Dataset and several causally captured monocular video clips.

Transformer models, despite their impressive performance, often face practical limitations due to their high computational requirements. At the same time, previous studies have revealed significant activation sparsity in these models, indicating the presence of redundant computations. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Sparsified Transformer Inference (DSTI), a method that radically reduces the inference cost of Transformer models by enforcing activation sparsity and subsequently transforming a dense model into its sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) version. We demonstrate that it is possible to train small gating networks that successfully predict the relative contribution of each expert during inference. Furthermore, we introduce a mechanism that dynamically determines the number of executed experts individually for each token. DSTI can be applied to any Transformer-based architecture and has negligible impact on the accuracy. For the BERT-base classification model, we reduce inference cost by almost 60%.

Continual learning (CL) refers to the ability of an intelligent system to sequentially acquire and retain knowledge from a stream of data with as little computational overhead as possible. To this end; regularization, replay, architecture, and parameter isolation approaches were introduced to the literature. Parameter isolation using a sparse network which enables to allocate distinct parts of the neural network to different tasks and also allows to share of parameters between tasks if they are similar. Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) is a prominent way to find these sparse networks and isolate them for each task. This paper is the first empirical study investigating the effect of different DST components under the CL paradigm to fill a critical research gap and shed light on the optimal configuration of DST for CL if it exists. Therefore, we perform a comprehensive study in which we investigate various DST components to find the best topology per task on well-known CIFAR100 and miniImageNet benchmarks in a task-incremental CL setup since our primary focus is to evaluate the performance of various DST criteria, rather than the process of mask selection. We found that, at a low sparsity level, Erdos-Renyi Kernel (ERK) initialization utilizes the backbone more efficiently and allows to effectively learn increments of tasks. At a high sparsity level, however, uniform initialization demonstrates more reliable and robust performance. In terms of growth strategy; performance is dependent on the defined initialization strategy, and the extent of sparsity. Finally, adaptivity within DST components is a promising way for better continual learners.

We present a method that simultaneously addresses the tasks of dynamic scene novel-view synthesis and six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) tracking of all dense scene elements. We follow an analysis-by-synthesis framework, inspired by recent work that models scenes as a collection of 3D Gaussians which are optimized to reconstruct input images via differentiable rendering. To model dynamic scenes, we allow Gaussians to move and rotate over time while enforcing that they have persistent color, opacity, and size. By regularizing Gaussians' motion and rotation with local-rigidity constraints, we show that our Dynamic 3D Gaussians correctly model the same area of physical space over time, including the rotation of that space. Dense 6-DOF tracking and dynamic reconstruction emerges naturally from persistent dynamic view synthesis, without requiring any correspondence or flow as input. We demonstrate a large number of downstream applications enabled by our representation, including first-person view synthesis, dynamic compositional scene synthesis, and 4D video editing.

Vision transformers (ViT) usually extract features via forwarding all the tokens in the self-attention layers from top to toe. In this paper, we introduce dynamic token-pass vision transformers (DoViT) for semantic segmentation, which can adaptively reduce the inference cost for images with different complexity. DoViT gradually stops partial easy tokens from self-attention calculation and keeps the hard tokens forwarding until meeting the stopping criteria. We employ lightweight auxiliary heads to make the token-pass decision and divide the tokens into keeping/stopping parts. With a token separate calculation, the self-attention layers are speeded up with sparse tokens and still work friendly with hardware. A token reconstruction module is built to collect and reset the grouped tokens to their original position in the sequence, which is necessary to predict correct semantic masks. We conduct extensive experiments on two common semantic segmentation tasks, and demonstrate that our method greatly reduces about 40% sim 60% FLOPs and the drop of mIoU is within 0.8% for various segmentation transformers. The throughput and inference speed of ViT-L/B are increased to more than 2times on Cityscapes.

Vision transformers have achieved leading performance on various visual tasks yet still suffer from high computational complexity. The situation deteriorates in dense prediction tasks like semantic segmentation, as high-resolution inputs and outputs usually imply more tokens involved in computations. Directly removing the less attentive tokens has been discussed for the image classification task but can not be extended to semantic segmentation since a dense prediction is required for every patch. To this end, this work introduces a Dynamic Token Pruning (DToP) method based on the early exit of tokens for semantic segmentation. Motivated by the coarse-to-fine segmentation process by humans, we naturally split the widely adopted auxiliary-loss-based network architecture into several stages, where each auxiliary block grades every token's difficulty level. We can finalize the prediction of easy tokens in advance without completing the entire forward pass. Moreover, we keep k highest confidence tokens for each semantic category to uphold the representative context information. Thus, computational complexity will change with the difficulty of the input, akin to the way humans do segmentation. Experiments suggest that the proposed DToP architecture reduces on average 20% - 35% of computational cost for current semantic segmentation methods based on plain vision transformers without accuracy degradation.

The explicit neural radiance field (NeRF) has gained considerable interest for its efficient training and fast inference capabilities, making it a promising direction such as virtual reality and gaming. In particular, PlenOctree (POT)[1], an explicit hierarchical multi-scale octree representation, has emerged as a structural and influential framework. However, POT's fixed structure for direct optimization is sub-optimal as the scene complexity evolves continuously with updates to cached color and density, necessitating refining the sampling distribution to capture signal complexity accordingly. To address this issue, we propose the dynamic PlenOctree DOT, which adaptively refines the sample distribution to adjust to changing scene complexity. Specifically, DOT proposes a concise yet novel hierarchical feature fusion strategy during the iterative rendering process. Firstly, it identifies the regions of interest through training signals to ensure adaptive and efficient refinement. Next, rather than directly filtering out valueless nodes, DOT introduces the sampling and pruning operations for octrees to aggregate features, enabling rapid parameter learning. Compared with POT, our DOT outperforms it by enhancing visual quality, reducing over 55.15/68.84% parameters, and providing 1.7/1.9 times FPS for NeRF-synthetic and Tanks & Temples, respectively. Project homepage:https://vlislab22.github.io/DOT. [1] Yu, Alex, et al. "Plenoctrees for real-time rendering of neural radiance fields." Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF International Conference on Computer Vision. 2021.

Autoregressive Transformers adopted in Large Language Models (LLMs) are hard to scale to long sequences. Despite several works trying to reduce their computational cost, most of LLMs still adopt attention layers between all pairs of tokens in the sequence, thus incurring a quadratic cost. In this study, we present a novel approach that dynamically prunes contextual information while preserving the model's expressiveness, resulting in reduced memory and computational requirements during inference. Our method employs a learnable mechanism that determines which uninformative tokens can be dropped from the context at any point across the generation process. By doing so, our approach not only addresses performance concerns but also enhances interpretability, providing valuable insight into the model's decision-making process. Our technique can be applied to existing pre-trained models through a straightforward fine-tuning process, and the pruning strength can be specified by a sparsity parameter. Notably, our empirical findings demonstrate that we can effectively prune up to 80\% of the context without significant performance degradation on downstream tasks, offering a valuable tool for mitigating inference costs. Our reference implementation achieves up to 2times increase in inference throughput and even greater memory savings.

Dynamic Sparse Training (DST) methods achieve state-of-the-art results in sparse neural network training, matching the generalization of dense models while enabling sparse training and inference. Although the resulting models are highly sparse and theoretically less computationally expensive, achieving speedups with unstructured sparsity on real-world hardware is challenging. In this work, we propose a sparse-to-sparse DST method, Structured RigL (SRigL), to learn a variant of fine-grained structured N:M sparsity by imposing a constant fan-in constraint. Using our empirical analysis of existing DST methods at high sparsity, we additionally employ a neuron ablation method which enables SRigL to achieve state-of-the-art sparse-to-sparse structured DST performance on a variety of Neural Network (NN) architectures. We demonstrate reduced real-world timings on CPU for online inference -- 3.6x/2x faster at 90% sparsity than equivalent dense/unstructured sparse layers, respectively. Our source code is available at https://github.com/calgaryml/condensed-sparsity

Dynamic imaging addresses the recovery of a time-varying 2D or 3D object at each time instant using its undersampled measurements. In particular, in the case of dynamic tomography, only a single projection at a single view angle may be available at a time, making the problem severely ill-posed. In this work, we propose an approach, RED-PSM, which combines for the first time two powerful techniques to address this challenging imaging problem. The first, are partially separable models, which have been used to efficiently introduce a low-rank prior for the spatio-temporal object. The second is the recent Regularization by Denoising (RED), which provides a flexible framework to exploit the impressive performance of state-of-the-art image denoising algorithms, for various inverse problems. We propose a partially separable objective with RED and a computationally efficient and scalable optimization scheme with variable splitting and ADMM. Theoretical analysis proves the convergence of our objective to a value corresponding to a stationary point satisfying the first-order optimality conditions. Convergence is accelerated by a particular projection-domain-based initialization. We demonstrate the performance and computational improvements of our proposed RED-PSM with a learned image denoiser by comparing it to a recent deep-prior-based method known as TD-DIP. Although the main focus is on dynamic tomography, we also show the performance advantages of RED-PSM in a cardiac dynamic MRI setting.

Dynamic Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) is a powerful algorithm capable of rendering photo-realistic novel view images from a monocular RGB video of a dynamic scene. Although it warps moving points across frames from the observation spaces to a common canonical space for rendering, dynamic NeRF does not model the change of the reflected color during the warping. As a result, this approach often fails drastically on challenging specular objects in motion. We address this limitation by reformulating the neural radiance field function to be conditioned on surface position and orientation in the observation space. This allows the specular surface at different poses to keep the different reflected colors when mapped to the common canonical space. Additionally, we add the mask of moving objects to guide the deformation field. As the specular surface changes color during motion, the mask mitigates the problem of failure to find temporal correspondences with only RGB supervision. We evaluate our model based on the novel view synthesis quality with a self-collected dataset of different moving specular objects in realistic environments. The experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly improves the reconstruction quality of moving specular objects from monocular RGB videos compared to the existing NeRF models. Our code and data are available at the project website https://github.com/JokerYan/NeRF-DS.

Despite the success of deep learning models on instance segmentation, current methods still suffer from catastrophic forgetting in continual learning scenarios. In this paper, our contributions for continual instance segmentation are threefold. First, we propose the Y-knowledge distillation (Y-KD), a technique that shares a common feature extractor between the teacher and student networks. As the teacher is also updated with new data in Y-KD, the increased plasticity results in new modules that are specialized on new classes. Second, our Y-KD approach is supported by a dynamic architecture method that trains task-specific modules with a unique instance segmentation head, thereby significantly reducing forgetting. Third, we complete our approach by leveraging checkpoint averaging as a simple method to manually balance the trade-off between performance on the various sets of classes, thus increasing control over the model's behavior without any additional cost. These contributions are united in our model that we name the Dynamic Y-KD network. We perform extensive experiments on several single-step and multi-steps incremental learning scenarios, and we show that our approach outperforms previous methods both on past and new classes. For instance, compared to recent work, our method obtains +2.1% mAP on old classes in 15-1, +7.6% mAP on new classes in 19-1 and reaches 91.5% of the mAP obtained by joint-training on all classes in 15-5.

Over-parameterization of deep neural networks (DNNs) has shown high prediction accuracy for many applications. Although effective, the large number of parameters hinders its popularity on resource-limited devices and has an outsize environmental impact. Sparse training (using a fixed number of nonzero weights in each iteration) could significantly mitigate the training costs by reducing the model size. However, existing sparse training methods mainly use either random-based or greedy-based drop-and-grow strategies, resulting in local minimal and low accuracy. In this work, we consider the dynamic sparse training as a sparse connectivity search problem and design an exploitation and exploration acquisition function to escape from local optima and saddle points. We further design an acquisition function and provide the theoretical guarantees for the proposed method and clarify its convergence property. Experimental results show that sparse models (up to 98\% sparsity) obtained by our proposed method outperform the SOTA sparse training methods on a wide variety of deep learning tasks. On VGG-19 / CIFAR-100, ResNet-50 / CIFAR-10, ResNet-50 / CIFAR-100, our method has even higher accuracy than dense models. On ResNet-50 / ImageNet, the proposed method has up to 8.2\% accuracy improvement compared to SOTA sparse training methods.

Dynamic model pruning is a recent direction that allows for the inference of a different sub-network for each input sample during deployment. However, current dynamic methods rely on learning a continuous channel gating through regularization by inducing sparsity loss. This formulation introduces complexity in balancing different losses (e.g task loss, regularization loss). In addition, regularization based methods lack transparent tradeoff hyperparameter selection to realize a computational budget. Our contribution is two-fold: 1) decoupled task and pruning losses. 2) Simple hyperparameter selection that enables FLOPs reduction estimation before training. Inspired by the Hebbian theory in Neuroscience: "neurons that fire together wire together", we propose to predict a mask to process k filters in a layer based on the activation of its previous layer. We pose the problem as a self-supervised binary classification problem. Each mask predictor module is trained to predict if the log-likelihood for each filter in the current layer belongs to the top-k activated filters. The value k is dynamically estimated for each input based on a novel criterion using the mass of heatmaps. We show experiments on several neural architectures, such as VGG, ResNet and MobileNet on CIFAR and ImageNet datasets. On CIFAR, we reach similar accuracy to SOTA methods with 15% and 24% higher FLOPs reduction. Similarly in ImageNet, we achieve lower drop in accuracy with up to 13% improvement in FLOPs reduction.

The transition from the superconducting to the normal state in a magnetic field was considered as a irreversible thermodynamic process before 1933 because of Joule heating. But all physicists became to consider this transition as reversible after 1933 because of the obvious contradiction of the Meissner effect with the second law of thermodynamics if this transition is considered as a irreversible process. This radical change of the opinion contradicted logic since the dissipation of the kinetic energy of the surface screening current into Joule heat in the normal state cannot depend on how this current appeared in the superconducting state. The inconsistency of the conventional theory of superconductivity, created in the framework of the equilibrium thermodynamics, with Joule heating, on which Jorge Hirsch draws reader's attention, is a consequence of this history. In order to avoid contradiction with the second law of thermodynamics, physicists postulated in the thirties of the last century that the surface screening current is damped without the generation of Joule heat. This postulate contradicts not only logic and the conventional theory of superconductivity but also experimental results.

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

Word evolution refers to the changing meanings and associations of words throughout time, as a byproduct of human language evolution. By studying word evolution, we can infer social trends and language constructs over different periods of human history. However, traditional techniques such as word representation learning do not adequately capture the evolving language structure and vocabulary. In this paper, we develop a dynamic statistical model to learn time-aware word vector representation. We propose a model that simultaneously learns time-aware embeddings and solves the resulting "alignment problem". This model is trained on a crawled NYTimes dataset. Additionally, we develop multiple intuitive evaluation strategies of temporal word embeddings. Our qualitative and quantitative tests indicate that our method not only reliably captures this evolution over time, but also consistently outperforms state-of-the-art temporal embedding approaches on both semantic accuracy and alignment quality.

We present a probabilistic language model for time-stamped text data which tracks the semantic evolution of individual words over time. The model represents words and contexts by latent trajectories in an embedding space. At each moment in time, the embedding vectors are inferred from a probabilistic version of word2vec [Mikolov et al., 2013]. These embedding vectors are connected in time through a latent diffusion process. We describe two scalable variational inference algorithms--skip-gram smoothing and skip-gram filtering--that allow us to train the model jointly over all times; thus learning on all data while simultaneously allowing word and context vectors to drift. Experimental results on three different corpora demonstrate that our dynamic model infers word embedding trajectories that are more interpretable and lead to higher predictive likelihoods than competing methods that are based on static models trained separately on time slices.

Large language models (LLMs), while transformative for NLP, come with significant computational demands, underlining the need for efficient, training-free compression. Notably, the reliability of perplexity as a benchmark for compressed model efficacy is in question, as our tests using LLaMA-7B and OPT-6.7b reveal a significant performance drop in several realistic downstream tasks, underscoring the disparity between perplexity as a performance indicator and real-world performance. Investigation into the trade-off between resource-intensive post-compression re-training highlights the prospect of prompt-driven recovery as a lightweight adaption tool. However, existing studies, confined mainly to perplexity evaluations and simple tasks, fail to offer unequivocal confidence in the scalability and generalizability of prompting. We tackle this uncertainty in two key ways. First, we uncover the vulnerability of naive prompts in LLM compression as an over-reliance on a singular prompt per input. In response, we propose inference-time dynamic prompting (IDP), a mechanism that autonomously chooses from a set of curated prompts based on the context of each individual input. Second, we delve into a scientific understanding of why ``prompting might be all you need post-LLM compression". Our findings suggest that compression doesn't irretrievably erase LLM model knowledge but displace it, necessitating a new inference path. IDP effectively redirects this path, enabling the model to tap into its inherent yet displaced knowledge and thereby recover performance. Empirical tests affirm the value of IDP, demonstrating an average performance improvement of 1.24% across nine varied tasks spanning multiple knowledge domains.

Reconstructing both objects and hands in 3D from a single RGB image is complex. Existing methods rely on manually defined hand-object constraints in Euclidean space, leading to suboptimal feature learning. Compared with Euclidean space, hyperbolic space better preserves the geometric properties of meshes thanks to its exponentially-growing space distance, which amplifies the differences between the features based on similarity. In this work, we propose the first precise hand-object reconstruction method in hyperbolic space, namely Dynamic Hyperbolic Attention Network (DHANet), which leverages intrinsic properties of hyperbolic space to learn representative features. Our method that projects mesh and image features into a unified hyperbolic space includes two modules, ie. dynamic hyperbolic graph convolution and image-attention hyperbolic graph convolution. With these two modules, our method learns mesh features with rich geometry-image multi-modal information and models better hand-object interaction. Our method provides a promising alternative for fine hand-object reconstruction in hyperbolic space. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms most state-of-the-art methods.

The rehearsal strategy is widely used to alleviate the catastrophic forgetting problem in class incremental learning (CIL) by preserving limited exemplars from previous tasks. With imbalanced sample numbers between old and new classes, the classifier learning can be biased. Existing CIL methods exploit the long-tailed (LT) recognition techniques, e.g., the adjusted losses and the data re-sampling methods, to handle the data imbalance issue within each increment task. In this work, the dynamic nature of data imbalance in CIL is shown and a novel Dynamic Residual Classifier (DRC) is proposed to handle this challenging scenario. Specifically, DRC is built upon a recent advance residual classifier with the branch layer merging to handle the model-growing problem. Moreover, DRC is compatible with different CIL pipelines and substantially improves them. Combining DRC with the model adaptation and fusion (MAF) pipeline, this method achieves state-of-the-art results on both the conventional CIL and the LT-CIL benchmarks. Extensive experiments are also conducted for a detailed analysis. The code is publicly available.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been used to solve different day-to-day problems. Recently, DNNs have been deployed in real-time systems, and lowering the energy consumption and response time has become the need of the hour. To address this scenario, researchers have proposed incorporating dynamic mechanism to static DNNs (SDNN) to create Dynamic Neural Networks (DyNNs) performing dynamic amounts of computation based on the input complexity. Although incorporating dynamic mechanism into SDNNs would be preferable in real-time systems, it also becomes important to evaluate how the introduction of dynamic mechanism impacts the robustness of the models. However, there has not been a significant number of works focusing on the robustness trade-off between SDNNs and DyNNs. To address this issue, we propose to investigate the robustness of dynamic mechanism in DyNNs and how dynamic mechanism design impacts the robustness of DyNNs. For that purpose, we evaluate three research questions. These evaluations are performed on three models and two datasets. Through the studies, we find that attack transferability from DyNNs to SDNNs is higher than attack transferability from SDNNs to DyNNs. Also, we find that DyNNs can be used to generate adversarial samples more efficiently than SDNNs. Then, through research studies, we provide insight into the design choices that can increase robustness of DyNNs against the attack generated using static model. Finally, we propose a novel attack to understand the additional attack surface introduced by the dynamic mechanism and provide design choices to improve robustness against the attack.

Accurate segmentation of topological tubular structures, such as blood vessels and roads, is crucial in various fields, ensuring accuracy and efficiency in downstream tasks. However, many factors complicate the task, including thin local structures and variable global morphologies. In this work, we note the specificity of tubular structures and use this knowledge to guide our DSCNet to simultaneously enhance perception in three stages: feature extraction, feature fusion, and loss constraint. First, we propose a dynamic snake convolution to accurately capture the features of tubular structures by adaptively focusing on slender and tortuous local structures. Subsequently, we propose a multi-view feature fusion strategy to complement the attention to features from multiple perspectives during feature fusion, ensuring the retention of important information from different global morphologies. Finally, a continuity constraint loss function, based on persistent homology, is proposed to constrain the topological continuity of the segmentation better. Experiments on 2D and 3D datasets show that our DSCNet provides better accuracy and continuity on the tubular structure segmentation task compared with several methods. Our codes will be publicly available.

Early exiting has become a promising approach to improving the inference efficiency of deep networks. By structuring models with multiple classifiers (exits), predictions for ``easy'' samples can be generated at earlier exits, negating the need for executing deeper layers. Current multi-exit networks typically implement linear classifiers at intermediate layers, compelling low-level features to encapsulate high-level semantics. This sub-optimal design invariably undermines the performance of later exits. In this paper, we propose Dynamic Perceiver (Dyn-Perceiver) to decouple the feature extraction procedure and the early classification task with a novel dual-branch architecture. A feature branch serves to extract image features, while a classification branch processes a latent code assigned for classification tasks. Bi-directional cross-attention layers are established to progressively fuse the information of both branches. Early exits are placed exclusively within the classification branch, thus eliminating the need for linear separability in low-level features. Dyn-Perceiver constitutes a versatile and adaptable framework that can be built upon various architectures. Experiments on image classification, action recognition, and object detection demonstrate that our method significantly improves the inference efficiency of different backbones, outperforming numerous competitive approaches across a broad range of computational budgets. Evaluation on both CPU and GPU platforms substantiate the superior practical efficiency of Dyn-Perceiver. Code is available at https://www.github.com/LeapLabTHU/Dynamic_Perceiver.

Maximizing a monotone submodular function under cardinality constraint k is a core problem in machine learning and database with many basic applications, including video and data summarization, recommendation systems, feature extraction, exemplar clustering, and coverage problems. We study this classic problem in the fully dynamic model where a stream of insertions and deletions of elements of an underlying ground set is given and the goal is to maintain an approximate solution using a fast update time. A recent paper at NeurIPS'20 by Lattanzi, Mitrovic, Norouzi{-}Fard, Tarnawski, Zadimoghaddam claims to obtain a dynamic algorithm for this problem with a 1{2} -epsilon approximation ratio and a query complexity bounded by poly(log(n),log(k),epsilon^{-1}). However, as we explain in this paper, the analysis has some important gaps. Having a dynamic algorithm for the problem with polylogarithmic update time is even more important in light of a recent result by Chen and Peng at STOC'22 who show a matching lower bound for the problem -- any randomized algorithm with a 1{2}+epsilon approximation ratio must have an amortized query complexity that is polynomial in n. In this paper, we develop a simpler algorithm for the problem that maintains a (1{2}-epsilon)-approximate solution for submodular maximization under cardinality constraint k using a polylogarithmic amortized update time.

Most works on transformers trained with the Masked Language Modeling (MLM) objective use the original BERT model's fixed masking rate of 15%. Our work instead dynamically schedules the masking ratio throughout training. We found that linearly decreasing the masking rate from 30% to 15% over the course of pretraining improves average GLUE accuracy by 0.46% in BERT-base, compared to a standard 15% fixed rate. Further analyses demonstrate that the gains from scheduling come from being exposed to both high and low masking rate regimes. Our results demonstrate that masking rate scheduling is a simple way to improve the quality of masked language models and achieve up to a 1.89x speedup in pretraining.

Theory of Mind (ToM) is a critical component of intelligence, yet accurately measuring it continues to be a subject of debate. Prior research has attempted to apply human ToM assessments to natural language processing models using either human-created standardized tests or rule-based templates. However, these methods primarily focus on simplistic reasoning and require further validation. In this study, we utilize dynamic epistemic logic, which has established overlaps with ToM, to generate more intricate problems. We also introduce novel verbalization techniques to express these problems using natural language. Our findings indicate that certain language model scaling (from 70M to 6B and 350M to 174B) does not consistently yield results better than random chance. While GPT-4 demonstrates improved epistemic reasoning capabilities, there is still room for enhancement. Our code and datasets are publicly available https://github.com/antoinelrnld/modlog https://huggingface.co/datasets/sileod/mindgames

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in the field of neural surface reconstruction. While the extensive focus was put on volumetric and implicit approaches, a number of works have shown that explicit graphics primitives such as point clouds can significantly reduce computational complexity, without sacrificing the reconstructed surface quality. However, less emphasis has been put on modeling dynamic surfaces with point primitives. In this work, we present a dynamic point field model that combines the representational benefits of explicit point-based graphics with implicit deformation networks to allow efficient modeling of non-rigid 3D surfaces. Using explicit surface primitives also allows us to easily incorporate well-established constraints such as-isometric-as-possible regularisation. While learning this deformation model is prone to local optima when trained in a fully unsupervised manner, we propose to additionally leverage semantic information such as keypoint dynamics to guide the deformation learning. We demonstrate our model with an example application of creating an expressive animatable human avatar from a collection of 3D scans. Here, previous methods mostly rely on variants of the linear blend skinning paradigm, which fundamentally limits the expressivity of such models when dealing with complex cloth appearances such as long skirts. We show the advantages of our dynamic point field framework in terms of its representational power, learning efficiency, and robustness to out-of-distribution novel poses.

Point-spread-function (PSF) engineering is a powerful computational imaging techniques wherein a custom phase mask is integrated into an optical system to encode additional information into captured images. Used in combination with deep learning, such systems now offer state-of-the-art performance at monocular depth estimation, extended depth-of-field imaging, lensless imaging, and other tasks. Inspired by recent advances in spatial light modulator (SLM) technology, this paper answers a natural question: Can one encode additional information and achieve superior performance by changing a phase mask dynamically over time? We first prove that the set of PSFs described by static phase masks is non-convex and that, as a result, time-averaged PSFs generated by dynamic phase masks are fundamentally more expressive. We then demonstrate, in simulation, that time-averaged dynamic (TiDy) phase masks can offer substantially improved monocular depth estimation and extended depth-of-field imaging performance.

AI documentation is a rapidly-growing channel for coordinating the design of AI technologies with policies for transparency and accessibility. Calls to standardize and enact documentation of algorithmic harms and impacts are now commonplace. However, documentation standards for AI remain inchoate, and fail to match the capabilities and social effects of increasingly impactful architectures such as Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we show the limits of present documentation protocols, and argue for dynamic documentation as a new paradigm for understanding and evaluating AI systems. We first review canonical approaches to system documentation outside the context of AI, focusing on the complex history of Environmental Impact Statements (EISs). We next compare critical elements of the EIS framework to present challenges with algorithmic documentation, which have inherited the limitations of EISs without incorporating their strengths. These challenges are specifically illustrated through the growing popularity of Model Cards and two case studies of algorithmic impact assessment in China and Canada. Finally, we evaluate more recent proposals, including Reward Reports, as potential components of fully dynamic AI documentation protocols.

This paper presents a new methodology to alleviate the fundamental trade-off between accuracy and latency in spiking neural networks (SNNs). The approach involves decoding confidence information over time from the SNN outputs and using it to develop a decision-making agent that can dynamically determine when to terminate each inference. The proposed method, Dynamic Confidence, provides several significant benefits to SNNs. 1. It can effectively optimize latency dynamically at runtime, setting it apart from many existing low-latency SNN algorithms. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets have demonstrated an average 40% speedup across eight different settings after applying Dynamic Confidence. 2. The decision-making agent in Dynamic Confidence is straightforward to construct and highly robust in parameter space, making it extremely easy to implement. 3. The proposed method enables visualizing the potential of any given SNN, which sets a target for current SNNs to approach. For instance, if an SNN can terminate at the most appropriate time point for each input sample, a ResNet-50 SNN can achieve an accuracy as high as 82.47% on ImageNet within just 4.71 time steps on average. Unlocking the potential of SNNs needs a highly-reliable decision-making agent to be constructed and fed with a high-quality estimation of ground truth. In this regard, Dynamic Confidence represents a meaningful step toward realizing the potential of SNNs.

In this paper, we present a new MTL framework that searches for structures optimized for multiple tasks with diverse graph topologies and shares features among tasks. We design a restricted DAG-based central network with read-in/read-out layers to build topologically diverse task-adaptive structures while limiting search space and time. We search for a single optimized network that serves as multiple task adaptive sub-networks using our three-stage training process. To make the network compact and discretized, we propose a flow-based reduction algorithm and a squeeze loss used in the training process. We evaluate our optimized network on various public MTL datasets and show ours achieves state-of-the-art performance. An extensive ablation study experimentally validates the effectiveness of the sub-module and schemes in our framework.

Dynamic radiance field reconstruction methods aim to model the time-varying structure and appearance of a dynamic scene. Existing methods, however, assume that accurate camera poses can be reliably estimated by Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms. These methods, thus, are unreliable as SfM algorithms often fail or produce erroneous poses on challenging videos with highly dynamic objects, poorly textured surfaces, and rotating camera motion. We address this robustness issue by jointly estimating the static and dynamic radiance fields along with the camera parameters (poses and focal length). We demonstrate the robustness of our approach via extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments. Our results show favorable performance over the state-of-the-art dynamic view synthesis methods.

Mathematical reasoning, a core ability of human intelligence, presents unique challenges for machines in abstract thinking and logical reasoning. Recent large pre-trained language models such as GPT-3 have achieved remarkable progress on mathematical reasoning tasks written in text form, such as math word problems (MWP). However, it is unknown if the models can handle more complex problems that involve math reasoning over heterogeneous information, such as tabular data. To fill the gap, we present Tabular Math Word Problems (TabMWP), a new dataset containing 38,431 open-domain grade-level problems that require mathematical reasoning on both textual and tabular data. Each question in TabMWP is aligned with a tabular context, which is presented as an image, semi-structured text, and a structured table. There are two types of questions: free-text and multi-choice, and each problem is annotated with gold solutions to reveal the multi-step reasoning process. We evaluate different pre-trained models on TabMWP, including the GPT-3 model in a few-shot setting. As earlier studies suggest, since few-shot GPT-3 relies on the selection of in-context examples, its performance is unstable and can degrade to near chance. The unstable issue is more severe when handling complex problems like TabMWP. To mitigate this, we further propose a novel approach, PromptPG, which utilizes policy gradient to learn to select in-context examples from a small amount of training data and then constructs the corresponding prompt for the test example. Experimental results show that our method outperforms the best baseline by 5.31% on the accuracy metric and reduces the prediction variance significantly compared to random selection, which verifies its effectiveness in selecting in-context examples.

Despite recent advances in natural language understanding and generation, and decades of research on the development of conversational bots, building automated agents that can carry on rich open-ended conversations with humans "in the wild" remains a formidable challenge. In this work we develop a real-time, open-ended dialogue system that uses reinforcement learning (RL) to power a bot's conversational skill at scale. Our work pairs the succinct embedding of the conversation state generated using SOTA (supervised) language models with RL techniques that are particularly suited to a dynamic action space that changes as the conversation progresses. Trained using crowd-sourced data, our novel system is able to substantially exceeds the (strong) baseline supervised model with respect to several metrics of interest in a live experiment with real users of the Google Assistant.

Although the vision-and-language pretraining (VLP) equipped cross-modal image-text retrieval (ITR) has achieved remarkable progress in the past two years, it suffers from a major drawback: the ever-increasing size of VLP models restricts its deployment to real-world search scenarios (where the high latency is unacceptable). To alleviate this problem, we present a novel plug-in dynamic contrastive distillation (DCD) framework to compress the large VLP models for the ITR task. Technically, we face the following two challenges: 1) the typical uni-modal metric learning approach is difficult to directly apply to the cross-modal tasks, due to the limited GPU memory to optimize too many negative samples during handling cross-modal fusion features. 2) it is inefficient to static optimize the student network from different hard samples, which have different effects on distillation learning and student network optimization. We try to overcome these challenges from two points. First, to achieve multi-modal contrastive learning, and balance the training costs and effects, we propose to use a teacher network to estimate the difficult samples for students, making the students absorb the powerful knowledge from pre-trained teachers, and master the knowledge from hard samples. Second, to dynamic learn from hard sample pairs, we propose dynamic distillation to dynamically learn samples of different difficulties, from the perspective of better balancing the difficulty of knowledge and students' self-learning ability. We successfully apply our proposed DCD strategy to two state-of-the-art vision-language pretrained models, i.e. ViLT and METER. Extensive experiments on MS-COCO and Flickr30K benchmarks show the effectiveness and efficiency of our DCD framework. Encouragingly, we can speed up the inference at least 129times compared to the existing ITR models.

Limited computational budgets often prevent transformers from being used in production and from having their high accuracy utilized. TinyBERT addresses the computational efficiency by self-distilling BERT into a smaller transformer representation having fewer layers and smaller internal embedding. However, TinyBERT's performance drops when we reduce the number of layers by 50%, and drops even more abruptly when we reduce the number of layers by 75% for advanced NLP tasks such as span question answering. Additionally, a separate model must be trained for each inference scenario with its distinct computational budget. In this work we present Dynamic-TinyBERT, a TinyBERT model that utilizes sequence-length reduction and Hyperparameter Optimization for enhanced inference efficiency per any computational budget. Dynamic-TinyBERT is trained only once, performing on-par with BERT and achieving an accuracy-speedup trade-off superior to any other efficient approaches (up to 3.3x with <1% loss-drop). Upon publication, the code to reproduce our work will be open-sourced.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

We present a unified representation for actionable spatial perception: 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs. Scene graphs are directed graphs where nodes represent entities in the scene (e.g. objects, walls, rooms), and edges represent relations (e.g. inclusion, adjacency) among nodes. Dynamic scene graphs (DSGs) extend this notion to represent dynamic scenes with moving agents (e.g. humans, robots), and to include actionable information that supports planning and decision-making (e.g. spatio-temporal relations, topology at different levels of abstraction). Our second contribution is to provide the first fully automatic Spatial PerceptIon eNgine(SPIN) to build a DSG from visual-inertial data. We integrate state-of-the-art techniques for object and human detection and pose estimation, and we describe how to robustly infer object, robot, and human nodes in crowded scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that reconciles visual-inertial SLAM and dense human mesh tracking. Moreover, we provide algorithms to obtain hierarchical representations of indoor environments (e.g. places, structures, rooms) and their relations. Our third contribution is to demonstrate the proposed spatial perception engine in a photo-realistic Unity-based simulator, where we assess its robustness and expressiveness. Finally, we discuss the implications of our proposal on modern robotics applications. 3D Dynamic Scene Graphs can have a profound impact on planning and decision-making, human-robot interaction, long-term autonomy, and scene prediction. A video abstract is available at https://youtu.be/SWbofjhyPzI

Target-guided open-domain conversation aims to proactively and naturally guide a dialogue agent or human to achieve specific goals, topics or keywords during open-ended conversations. Existing methods mainly rely on single-turn datadriven learning and simple target-guided strategy without considering semantic or factual knowledge relations among candidate topics/keywords. This results in poor transition smoothness and low success rate. In this work, we adopt a structured approach that controls the intended content of system responses by introducing coarse-grained keywords, attains smooth conversation transition through turn-level supervised learning and knowledge relations between candidate keywords, and drives an conversation towards an specified target with discourse-level guiding strategy. Specially, we propose a novel dynamic knowledge routing network (DKRN) which considers semantic knowledge relations among candidate keywords for accurate next topic prediction of next discourse. With the help of more accurate keyword prediction, our keyword-augmented response retrieval module can achieve better retrieval performance and more meaningful conversations. Besides, we also propose a novel dual discourse-level target-guided strategy to guide conversations to reach their goals smoothly with higher success rate. Furthermore, to push the research boundary of target-guided open-domain conversation to match real-world scenarios better, we introduce a new large-scale Chinese target-guided open-domain conversation dataset (more than 900K conversations) crawled from Sina Weibo. Quantitative and human evaluations show our method can produce meaningful and effective target-guided conversations, significantly improving over other state-of-the-art methods by more than 20% in success rate and more than 0.6 in average smoothness score.

Point clouds provide a flexible geometric representation suitable for countless applications in computer graphics; they also comprise the raw output of most 3D data acquisition devices. While hand-designed features on point clouds have long been proposed in graphics and vision, however, the recent overwhelming success of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for image analysis suggests the value of adapting insight from CNN to the point cloud world. Point clouds inherently lack topological information so designing a model to recover topology can enrich the representation power of point clouds. To this end, we propose a new neural network module dubbed EdgeConv suitable for CNN-based high-level tasks on point clouds including classification and segmentation. EdgeConv acts on graphs dynamically computed in each layer of the network. It is differentiable and can be plugged into existing architectures. Compared to existing modules operating in extrinsic space or treating each point independently, EdgeConv has several appealing properties: It incorporates local neighborhood information; it can be stacked applied to learn global shape properties; and in multi-layer systems affinity in feature space captures semantic characteristics over potentially long distances in the original embedding. We show the performance of our model on standard benchmarks including ModelNet40, ShapeNetPart, and S3DIS.

A capsule is a group of neurons whose activity vector represents the instantiation parameters of a specific type of entity such as an object or an object part. We use the length of the activity vector to represent the probability that the entity exists and its orientation to represent the instantiation parameters. Active capsules at one level make predictions, via transformation matrices, for the instantiation parameters of higher-level capsules. When multiple predictions agree, a higher level capsule becomes active. We show that a discrimininatively trained, multi-layer capsule system achieves state-of-the-art performance on MNIST and is considerably better than a convolutional net at recognizing highly overlapping digits. To achieve these results we use an iterative routing-by-agreement mechanism: A lower-level capsule prefers to send its output to higher level capsules whose activity vectors have a big scalar product with the prediction coming from the lower-level capsule.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Active learning (AL) aims to select the most useful data samples from an unlabeled data pool and annotate them to expand the labeled dataset under a limited budget. Especially, uncertainty-based methods choose the most uncertain samples, which are known to be effective in improving model performance. However, AL literature often overlooks training dynamics (TD), defined as the ever-changing model behavior during optimization via stochastic gradient descent, even though other areas of literature have empirically shown that TD provides important clues for measuring the sample uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a novel AL method, Training Dynamics for Active Learning (TiDAL), which leverages the TD to quantify uncertainties of unlabeled data. Since tracking the TD of all the large-scale unlabeled data is impractical, TiDAL utilizes an additional prediction module that learns the TD of labeled data. To further justify the design of TiDAL, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence to argue the usefulness of leveraging TD for AL. Experimental results show that our TiDAL achieves better or comparable performance on both balanced and imbalanced benchmark datasets compared to state-of-the-art AL methods, which estimate data uncertainty using only static information after model training.

In molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, rare events, such as protein folding, are typically studied by means of enhanced sampling techniques, most of which rely on the definition of a collective variable (CV) along which the acceleration occurs. Obtaining an expressive CV is crucial, but often hindered by the lack of information about the particular event, e.g., the transition from unfolded to folded conformation. We propose a simulation-free data augmentation strategy using physics-inspired metrics to generate geodesic interpolations resembling protein folding transitions, thereby improving sampling efficiency without true transition state samples. Leveraging interpolation progress parameters, we introduce a regression-based learning scheme for CV models, which outperforms classifier-based methods when transition state data is limited and noisy

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

TD-learning is a foundation reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for value prediction. Critical to the accuracy of value predictions is the quality of state representations. In this work, we consider the question: how does end-to-end TD-learning impact the representation over time? Complementary to prior work, we provide a set of analysis that sheds further light on the representation dynamics under TD-learning. We first show that when the environments are reversible, end-to-end TD-learning strictly decreases the value approximation error over time. Under further assumptions on the environments, we can connect the representation dynamics with spectral decomposition over the transition matrix. This latter finding establishes fitting multiple value functions from randomly generated rewards as a useful auxiliary task for representation learning, as we empirically validate on both tabular and Atari game suites.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Deploying large, complex policies in the real world requires the ability to steer them to fit the needs of a situation. Most common steering approaches, like goal-conditioning, require training the robot policy with a distribution of test-time objectives in mind. To overcome this limitation, we present DynaGuide, a steering method for diffusion policies using guidance from an external dynamics model during the diffusion denoising process. DynaGuide separates the dynamics model from the base policy, which gives it multiple advantages, including the ability to steer towards multiple objectives, enhance underrepresented base policy behaviors, and maintain robustness on low-quality objectives. The separate guidance signal also allows DynaGuide to work with off-the-shelf pretrained diffusion policies. We demonstrate the performance and features of DynaGuide against other steering approaches in a series of simulated and real experiments, showing an average steering success of 70% on a set of articulated CALVIN tasks and outperforming goal-conditioning by 5.4x when steered with low-quality objectives. We also successfully steer an off-the-shelf real robot policy to express preference for particular objects and even create novel behavior. Videos and more can be found on the project website: https://dynaguide.github.io

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Model-based reinforcement learning is a powerful tool, but collecting data to fit an accurate model of the system can be costly. Exploring an unknown environment in a sample-efficient manner is hence of great importance. However, the complexity of dynamics and the computational limitations of real systems make this task challenging. In this work, we introduce FLEX, an exploration algorithm for nonlinear dynamics based on optimal experimental design. Our policy maximizes the information of the next step and results in an adaptive exploration algorithm, compatible with generic parametric learning models and requiring minimal resources. We test our method on a number of nonlinear environments covering different settings, including time-varying dynamics. Keeping in mind that exploration is intended to serve an exploitation objective, we also test our algorithm on downstream model-based classical control tasks and compare it to other state-of-the-art model-based and model-free approaches. The performance achieved by FLEX is competitive and its computational cost is low.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

The objective of personalized medicine is to tailor interventions to an individual patient's unique characteristics. A key technology for this purpose involves medical digital twins, computational models of human biology that can be personalized and dynamically updated to incorporate patient-specific data collected over time. Certain aspects of human biology, such as the immune system, are not easily captured with physics-based models, such as differential equations. Instead, they are often multi-scale, stochastic, and hybrid. This poses a challenge to existing model-based control and optimization approaches that cannot be readily applied to such models. Recent advances in automatic differentiation and neural-network control methods hold promise in addressing complex control problems. However, the application of these approaches to biomedical systems is still in its early stages. This work introduces dynamics-informed neural-network controllers as an alternative approach to control of medical digital twins. As a first use case for this method, the focus is on agent-based models, a versatile and increasingly common modeling platform in biomedicine. The effectiveness of the proposed neural-network control method is illustrated and benchmarked against other methods with two widely-used agent-based model types. The relevance of the method introduced here extends beyond medical digital twins to other complex dynamical systems.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Deep learning models are increasingly employed for perception, prediction, and control in complex systems. Embedding physical knowledge into these models is crucial for achieving realistic and consistent outputs, a challenge often addressed by physics-informed machine learning. However, integrating physical knowledge with representation learning becomes difficult when dealing with high-dimensional observation data, such as images, particularly under conditions of incomplete or imprecise state information. To address this, we propose Physically Interpretable World Models, a novel architecture that aligns learned latent representations with real-world physical quantities. Our method combines a variational autoencoder with a dynamical model that incorporates unknown system parameters, enabling the discovery of physically meaningful representations. By employing weak supervision with interval-based constraints, our approach eliminates the reliance on ground-truth physical annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the quality of learned representations while achieving accurate predictions of future states, advancing the field of representation learning in dynamic systems.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

A multivariate time series refers to observations of two or more variables taken from a device or a system simultaneously over time. There is an increasing need to monitor multivariate time series and detect anomalies in real time to ensure proper system operation and good service quality. It is also highly desirable to have a lightweight anomaly detection system that considers correlations between different variables, adapts to changes in the pattern of the multivariate time series, offers immediate responses, and provides supportive information regarding detection results based on unsupervised learning and online model training. In the past decade, many multivariate time series anomaly detection approaches have been introduced. However, they are unable to offer all the above-mentioned features. In this paper, we propose RoLA, a real-time online lightweight anomaly detection system for multivariate time series based on a divide-and-conquer strategy, parallel processing, and the majority rule. RoLA employs multiple lightweight anomaly detectors to monitor multivariate time series in parallel, determine the correlations between variables dynamically on the fly, and then jointly detect anomalies based on the majority rule in real time. To demonstrate the performance of RoLA, we conducted an experiment based on a public dataset provided by the FerryBox of the One Ocean Expedition. The results show that RoLA provides satisfactory detection accuracy and lightweight performance.

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

Diffusion-based generative models use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and their equivalent ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to establish a smooth connection between a complex data distribution and a tractable prior distribution. In this paper, we identify several intriguing trajectory properties in the ODE-based sampling process of diffusion models. We characterize an implicit denoising trajectory and discuss its vital role in forming the coupled sampling trajectory with a strong shape regularity, regardless of the generated content. We also describe a dynamic programming-based scheme to make the time schedule in sampling better fit the underlying trajectory structure. This simple strategy requires minimal modification to any given ODE-based numerical solvers and incurs negligible computational cost, while delivering superior performance in image generation, especially in 5sim 10 function evaluations.

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Soft object manipulation tasks in domestic scenes pose a significant challenge for existing robotic skill learning techniques due to their complex dynamics and variable shape characteristics. Since learning new manipulation skills from human demonstration is an effective way for robot applications, developing prior knowledge of the representation and dynamics of soft objects is necessary. In this regard, we propose a pre-trained soft object manipulation skill learning model, namely SoftGPT, that is trained using large amounts of exploration data, consisting of a three-dimensional heterogeneous graph representation and a GPT-based dynamics model. For each downstream task, a goal-oriented policy agent is trained to predict the subsequent actions, and SoftGPT generates the consequences of these actions. Integrating these two approaches establishes a thinking process in the robot's mind that provides rollout for facilitating policy learning. Our results demonstrate that leveraging prior knowledge through this thinking process can efficiently learn various soft object manipulation skills, with the potential for direct learning from human demonstrations.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Data-driven learning is rapidly evolving and places a new perspective on realizing state-space dynamical systems. However, dynamical systems derived from nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) suffer from limitations in computational efficiency. Thus, this paper stems from data-driven learning to advance states of dynamical systems utilizing a structured neural network (StNN). The proposed learning technique also seeks to identify an optimal, low-complexity operator to solve dynamical systems, the so-called Hankel operator, derived from time-delay measurements. Thus, we utilize the StNN based on the Hankel operator to solve dynamical systems as an alternative to existing data-driven techniques. We show that the proposed StNN reduces the number of parameters and computational complexity compared with the conventional neural networks and also with the classical data-driven techniques, such as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) and Hankel Alternative view of Koopman (HAVOK), which is commonly known as delay-Dynamic Mode Decomposition(DMD) or Hankel-DMD. More specifically, we present numerical simulations to solve dynamical systems utilizing the StNN based on the Hankel operator beginning from the fundamental Lotka-Volterra model, where we compare the StNN with the LEarning Across Dynamical Systems (LEADS), and extend our analysis to highly nonlinear and chaotic Lorenz systems, comparing the StNN with conventional neural networks, SINDy, and HAVOK. Hence, we show that the proposed StNN paves the way for realizing state-space dynamical systems with a low-complexity learning algorithm, enabling prediction and understanding of future states.

In this paper, we propose feedback designs for manipulating a quantum state to a target state by performing sequential measurements. In light of Belavkin's quantum feedback control theory, for a given set of (projective or non-projective) measurements and a given time horizon, we show that finding the measurement selection policy that maximizes the probability of successful state manipulation is an optimal control problem for a controlled Markovian process. The optimal policy is Markovian and can be solved by dynamical programming. Numerical examples indicate that making use of feedback information significantly improves the success probability compared to classical scheme without taking feedback. We also consider other objective functionals including maximizing the expected fidelity to the target state as well as minimizing the expected arrival time. The connections and differences among these objectives are also discussed.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

This survey draws a broad-stroke, panoramic picture of the State of the Art (SoTA) of the research in generative methods for the analysis of social media data. It fills a void, as the existing survey articles are either much narrower in their scope or are dated. We included two important aspects that currently gain importance in mining and modeling social media: dynamics and networks. Social dynamics are important for understanding the spreading of influence or diseases, formation of friendships, the productivity of teams, etc. Networks, on the other hand, may capture various complex relationships providing additional insight and identifying important patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed.

We identify and formalize a fundamental gradient descent phenomenon resulting in a learning proclivity in over-parameterized neural networks. Gradient Starvation arises when cross-entropy loss is minimized by capturing only a subset of features relevant for the task, despite the presence of other predictive features that fail to be discovered. This work provides a theoretical explanation for the emergence of such feature imbalance in neural networks. Using tools from Dynamical Systems theory, we identify simple properties of learning dynamics during gradient descent that lead to this imbalance, and prove that such a situation can be expected given certain statistical structure in training data. Based on our proposed formalism, we develop guarantees for a novel regularization method aimed at decoupling feature learning dynamics, improving accuracy and robustness in cases hindered by gradient starvation. We illustrate our findings with simple and real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization experiments.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Chaotic systems are intrinsically sensitive to small errors, challenging efforts to construct predictive data-driven models of real-world dynamical systems such as fluid flows or neuronal activity. Prior efforts comprise either specialized models trained separately on individual time series, or foundation models trained on vast time series databases with little underlying dynamical structure. Motivated by dynamical systems theory, we present Panda, Patched Attention for Nonlinear DynAmics. We train Panda on a novel synthetic, extensible dataset of 2 times 10^4 chaotic dynamical systems that we discover using an evolutionary algorithm. Trained purely on simulated data, Panda exhibits emergent properties: zero-shot forecasting of unseen real world chaotic systems, and nonlinear resonance patterns in cross-channel attention heads. Despite having been trained only on low-dimensional ordinary differential equations, Panda spontaneously develops the ability to predict partial differential equations without retraining. We demonstrate a neural scaling law for differential equations, underscoring the potential of pretrained models for probing abstract mathematical domains like nonlinear dynamics.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Even for known nonlinear dynamical systems, feedback controller synthesis is a difficult problem that often requires leveraging the particular structure of the dynamics to induce a stable closed-loop system. For general nonlinear models, including those fit to data, there may not be enough known structure to reliably synthesize a stabilizing feedback controller. In this paper, we discuss a state-dependent nonlinear tracking controller formulation based on a state-dependent Riccati equation for general nonlinear control-affine systems. This formulation depends on a nonlinear factorization of the system of vector fields defining the control-affine dynamics, which always exists under mild smoothness assumptions. We propose a method for learning this factorization from a finite set of data. On a variety of simulated nonlinear dynamical systems, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of learned versions of this controller in stable trajectory tracking. Alongside our learning method, we evaluate recent ideas in jointly learning a controller and stabilizability certificate for known dynamical systems; we show experimentally that such methods can be frail in comparison.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Designing control policies whose performance level is guaranteed to remain above a given threshold in a span of environments is a critical feature for the adoption of reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world applications. The search for such robust policies is a notoriously difficult problem, related to the so-called dynamic model of transition function uncertainty, where the environment dynamics are allowed to change at each time step. But in practical cases, one is rather interested in robustness to a span of static transition models throughout interaction episodes. The static model is known to be harder to solve than the dynamic one, and seminal algorithms, such as robust value iteration, as well as most recent works on deep robust RL, build upon the dynamic model. In this work, we propose to revisit the static model. We suggest an analysis of why solving the static model under some mild hypotheses is a reasonable endeavor, based on an equivalence with the dynamic model, and formalize the general intuition that robust MDPs can be solved by tackling a series of static problems. We introduce a generic meta-algorithm called IWOCS, which incrementally identifies worst-case transition models so as to guide the search for a robust policy. Discussion on IWOCS sheds light on new ways to decouple policy optimization and adversarial transition functions and opens new perspectives for analysis. We derive a deep RL version of IWOCS and demonstrate it is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms on classical benchmarks.

From a viewpoint of stochastic thermodynamics, we derive equations that describe the collective dynamics near the order-disorder transition in the globally coupled XY model and near the synchronization-desynchronization transition in the Kuramoto model. A new way of thinking is to interpret the deterministic time evolution of a macroscopic variable as an external operation to a thermodynamic system. We then find that the irreversible work determines the equation for the collective dynamics. When analyzing the Kuramoto model, we employ a generalized concept of irreversible work which originates from a non-equilibrium identity associated with steady state thermodynamics.

In recent years, domains such as natural language processing and image recognition have popularized the paradigm of using large datasets to pretrain representations that can be effectively transferred to downstream tasks. In this work we evaluate how such a paradigm should be done in imitation learning, where both pretraining and finetuning data are trajectories collected by experts interacting with an unknown environment. Namely, we consider a setting where the pretraining corpus consists of multitask demonstrations and the task for each demonstration is set by an unobserved latent context variable. The goal is to use the pretraining corpus to learn a low dimensional representation of the high dimensional (e.g., visual) observation space which can be transferred to a novel context for finetuning on a limited dataset of demonstrations. Among a variety of possible pretraining objectives, we argue that inverse dynamics modeling -- i.e., predicting an action given the observations appearing before and after it in the demonstration -- is well-suited to this setting. We provide empirical evidence of this claim through evaluations on a variety of simulated visuomotor manipulation problems. While previous work has attempted various theoretical explanations regarding the benefit of inverse dynamics modeling, we find that these arguments are insufficient to explain the empirical advantages often observed in our settings, and so we derive a novel analysis using a simple but general environment model.