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byAK and the research community

Aug 29

SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

A Methodology for Generative Spelling Correction via Natural Spelling Errors Emulation across Multiple Domains and Languages

Modern large language models demonstrate impressive capabilities in text generation and generalization. However, they often struggle with solving text editing tasks, particularly when it comes to correcting spelling errors and mistypings. In this paper, we present a methodology for generative spelling correction (SC), which was tested on English and Russian languages and potentially can be extended to any language with minor changes. Our research mainly focuses on exploring natural spelling errors and mistypings in texts and studying the ways those errors can be emulated in correct sentences to effectively enrich generative models' pre-train procedure. We investigate the impact of such emulations and the models' abilities across different text domains. In this work, we investigate two spelling corruption techniques: 1) first one mimics human behavior when making a mistake through leveraging statistics of errors from particular dataset and 2) second adds the most common spelling errors, keyboard miss clicks, and some heuristics within the texts. We conducted experiments employing various corruption strategies, models' architectures and sizes on the pre-training and fine-tuning stages and evaluated the models using single-domain and multi-domain test sets. As a practical outcome of our work, we introduce SAGE (Spell checking via Augmentation and Generative distribution Emulation) is a library for automatic generative SC that includes a family of pre-trained generative models and built-in augmentation algorithms.

LLMPot: Automated LLM-based Industrial Protocol and Physical Process Emulation for ICS Honeypots

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are extensively used in critical infrastructures ensuring efficient, reliable, and continuous operations. However, their increasing connectivity and addition of advanced features make them vulnerable to cyber threats, potentially leading to severe disruptions in essential services. In this context, honeypots play a vital role by acting as decoy targets within ICS networks, or on the Internet, helping to detect, log, analyze, and develop mitigations for ICS-specific cyber threats. Deploying ICS honeypots, however, is challenging due to the necessity of accurately replicating industrial protocols and device characteristics, a crucial requirement for effectively mimicking the unique operational behavior of different industrial systems. Moreover, this challenge is compounded by the significant manual effort required in also mimicking the control logic the PLC would execute, in order to capture attacker traffic aiming to disrupt critical infrastructure operations. In this paper, we propose LLMPot, a novel approach for designing honeypots in ICS networks harnessing the potency of Large Language Models (LLMs). LLMPot aims to automate and optimize the creation of realistic honeypots with vendor-agnostic configurations, and for any control logic, aiming to eliminate the manual effort and specialized knowledge traditionally required in this domain. We conducted extensive experiments focusing on a wide array of parameters, demonstrating that our LLM-based approach can effectively create honeypot devices implementing different industrial protocols and diverse control logic.

Learning to Reason via Program Generation, Emulation, and Search

Program synthesis with language models (LMs) has unlocked a large set of reasoning abilities; code-tuned LMs have proven adept at generating programs that solve a wide variety of algorithmic symbolic manipulation tasks (e.g. word concatenation). However, not all reasoning tasks are easily expressible as code, e.g. tasks involving commonsense reasoning, moral decision-making, and sarcasm understanding. Our goal is to extend an LM's program synthesis skills to such tasks and evaluate the results via pseudo-programs, namely Python programs where some leaf function calls are left undefined. To that end, we propose, Code Generation and Emulated EXecution (CoGEX). CoGEX works by (1) training LMs to generate their own pseudo-programs, (2) teaching them to emulate their generated program's execution, including those leaf functions, allowing the LM's knowledge to fill in the execution gaps; and (3) using them to search over many programs to find an optimal one. To adapt the CoGEX model to a new task, we introduce a method for performing program search to find a single program whose pseudo-execution yields optimal performance when applied to all the instances of a given dataset. We show that our approach yields large improvements compared to standard in-context learning approaches on a battery of tasks, both algorithmic and soft reasoning. This result thus demonstrates that code synthesis can be applied to a much broader class of problems than previously considered. Our released dataset, fine-tuned models, and implementation can be found at https://github.com/nweir127/CoGEX.

The Mira-Titan Universe IV. High Precision Power Spectrum Emulation

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering datasets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue into the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the nonlinear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira-Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. The suite covers the standard six cosmological parameters {omega_m,omega_b, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state, {omega_{nu}, w_a}. In this paper we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1Gpc)^3 volume and evolving 3200^3 particles. An additional set of 1776 lower-resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly nonlinear regimes. The emulator provides predictions at the two to three percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

Flexible Non-intrusive Dynamic Instrumentation for WebAssembly

A key strength of managed runtimes over hardware is the ability to gain detailed insight into the dynamic execution of programs with instrumentation. Analyses such as code coverage, execution frequency, tracing, and debugging, are all made easier in a virtual setting. As a portable, low-level bytecode, WebAssembly offers inexpensive in-process sandboxing with high performance. Yet to date, Wasm engines have not offered much insight into executing programs, supporting at best bytecode-level stepping and basic source maps, but no instrumentation capabilities. In this paper, we show the first non-intrusive dynamic instrumentation system for WebAssembly in the open-source Wizard Research Engine. Our innovative design offers a flexible, complete hierarchy of instrumentation primitives that support building high-level, complex analyses in terms of low-level, programmable probes. In contrast to emulation or machine code instrumentation, injecting probes at the bytecode level increases expressiveness and vastly simplifies the implementation by reusing the engine's JIT compiler, interpreter, and deoptimization mechanism rather than building new ones. Wizard supports both dynamic instrumentation insertion and removal while providing consistency guarantees, which is key to composing multiple analyses without interference. We detail a fully-featured implementation in a high-performance multi-tier Wasm engine, show novel optimizations specifically designed to minimize instrumentation overhead, and evaluate performance characteristics under load from various analyses. This design is well-suited for production engine adoption as probes can be implemented to have no impact on production performance when not in use.

DNN is not all you need: Parallelizing Non-Neural ML Algorithms on Ultra-Low-Power IoT Processors

Machine Learning (ML) functions are becoming ubiquitous in latency- and privacy-sensitive IoT applications, prompting a shift toward near-sensor processing at the extreme edge and the consequent increasing adoption of Parallel Ultra-Low Power (PULP) IoT processors. These compute- and memory-constrained parallel architectures need to run efficiently a wide range of algorithms, including key Non-Neural ML kernels that compete favorably with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in terms of accuracy under severe resource constraints. In this paper, we focus on enabling efficient parallel execution of Non-Neural ML algorithms on two RISCV-based PULP platforms, namely GAP8, a commercial chip, and PULP-OPEN, a research platform running on an FPGA emulator. We optimized the parallel algorithms through a fine-grained analysis and intensive optimization to maximize the speedup, considering two alternative Floating-Point (FP) emulation libraries on GAP8 and the native FPU support on PULP-OPEN. Experimental results show that a target-optimized emulation library can lead to an average 1.61x runtime improvement and 37% energy reduction compared to a standard emulation library, while the native FPU support reaches up to 32.09x and 99%, respectively. In terms of parallel speedup, our design improves the sequential execution by 7.04x on average on the targeted octa-core platforms leading to energy and latency decrease up to 87%. Lastly, we present a comparison with the ARM Cortex-M4 microcontroller (MCU), a widely adopted commercial solution for edge deployments, which is 12.87x slower and 98% less energy-efficient than PULP-OPEN.

A Dataset of Dynamic Reverberant Sound Scenes with Directional Interferers for Sound Event Localization and Detection

This report presents the dataset and baseline of Task 3 of the DCASE2021 Challenge on Sound Event Localization and Detection (SELD). The dataset is based on emulation of real recordings of static or moving sound events under real conditions of reverberation and ambient noise, using spatial room impulse responses captured in a variety of rooms and delivered in two spatial formats. The acoustical synthesis remains the same as in the previous iteration of the challenge, however the new dataset brings more challenging conditions of polyphony and overlapping instances of the same class. The most important difference of the new dataset is the introduction of directional interferers, meaning sound events that are localized in space but do not belong to the target classes to be detected and are not annotated. Since such interfering events are expected in every real-world scenario of SELD, the new dataset aims to promote systems that deal with this condition effectively. A modified SELDnet baseline employing the recent ACCDOA representation of SELD problems accompanies the dataset and it is shown to outperform the previous one. The new dataset is shown to be significantly more challenging for both baselines according to all considered metrics. To investigate the individual and combined effects of ambient noise, interferers, and reverberation, we study the performance of the baseline on different versions of the dataset excluding or including combinations of these factors. The results indicate that by far the most detrimental effects are caused by directional interferers.

The impact of internal variability on benchmarking deep learning climate emulators

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

Natively neuromorphic LMU architecture for encoding-free SNN-based HAR on commercial edge devices

Neuromorphic models take inspiration from the human brain by adopting bio-plausible neuron models to build alternatives to traditional Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) solutions. The scarce availability of dedicated hardware able to actualize the emulation of brain-inspired computation, which is otherwise only simulated, yet still hinders the wide adoption of neuromorphic computing for edge devices and embedded systems. With this premise, we adopt the perspective of neuromorphic computing for conventional hardware and we present the L2MU, a natively neuromorphic Legendre Memory Unit (LMU) which entirely relies on Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons. Specifically, the original recurrent architecture of LMU has been redesigned by modelling every constituent element with neural populations made of LIF or Current-Based (CuBa) LIF neurons. To couple neuromorphic computing and off-the-shelf edge devices, we equipped the L2MU with an input module for the conversion of real values into spikes, which makes it an encoding-free implementation of a Recurrent Spiking Neural Network (RSNN) able to directly work with raw sensor signals on non-dedicated hardware. As a use case to validate our network, we selected the task of Human Activity Recognition (HAR). We benchmarked our L2MU on smartwatch signals from hand-oriented activities, deploying it on three different commercial edge devices in compressed versions too. The reported results remark the possibility of considering neuromorphic models not only in an exclusive relationship with dedicated hardware but also as a suitable choice to work with common sensors and devices.

Quo Vadis: Hybrid Machine Learning Meta-Model based on Contextual and Behavioral Malware Representations

We propose a hybrid machine learning architecture that simultaneously employs multiple deep learning models analyzing contextual and behavioral characteristics of Windows portable executable, producing a final prediction based on a decision from the meta-model. The detection heuristic in contemporary machine learning Windows malware classifiers is typically based on the static properties of the sample since dynamic analysis through virtualization is challenging for vast quantities of samples. To surpass this limitation, we employ a Windows kernel emulation that allows the acquisition of behavioral patterns across large corpora with minimal temporal and computational costs. We partner with a security vendor for a collection of more than 100k int-the-wild samples that resemble the contemporary threat landscape, containing raw PE files and filepaths of applications at the moment of execution. The acquired dataset is at least ten folds larger than reported in related works on behavioral malware analysis. Files in the training dataset are labeled by a professional threat intelligence team, utilizing manual and automated reverse engineering tools. We estimate the hybrid classifier's operational utility by collecting an out-of-sample test set three months later from the acquisition of the training set. We report an improved detection rate, above the capabilities of the current state-of-the-art model, especially under low false-positive requirements. Additionally, we uncover a meta-model's ability to identify malicious activity in validation and test sets even if none of the individual models express enough confidence to mark the sample as malevolent. We conclude that the meta-model can learn patterns typical to malicious samples from representation combinations produced by different analysis techniques. We publicly release pre-trained models and anonymized dataset of emulation reports.

Mitigating the quantum hype

We are in the midst of quantum hype with some excessive claims of quantum computing potential, many vendors' and even some research organizations' exaggerations, and a funding frenzy for very low technology readiness level startups. Governments are contributing to this hype with their large quantum initiatives and their technology sovereignty aspirations. Technology hypes are not bad per se since they create emulation, drive innovations and also contribute to attracting new talents. It works as scientists and vendors deliver progress and innovation on a continuous basis after a so-called peak of expectations. It fails with exaggerated overpromises and underdeliveries that last too long. It could cut short research and innovation funding, creating some sort of quantum winter. After looking at the shape and form of technology and science hypes and driving some lessons from past hypes, we investigate the current quantum hype and its specifics. We find that, although there is some significant uncertainty on the potential to create real scalable quantum computers, the scientific and vendor fields are relatively sane and solid compared to other technology hypes. The vendors hype has some profound and disruptive impact on the organization of fundamental research. Also, quantum technologies comprise other fields like quantum telecommunications and quantum sensing with a higher technology readiness level, which are less prone to hype. We then make some proposals to mitigate the potential negative effects of the current quantum hype including recommendations on scientific communication to strengthen the trust in quantum science, vendor behavior improvements, benchmarking methodologies, public education and putting in place a responsible research and innovation approach.

Chain of Code: Reasoning with a Language Model-Augmented Code Emulator

Code provides a general syntactic structure to build complex programs and perform precise computations when paired with a code interpreter - we hypothesize that language models (LMs) can leverage code-writing to improve Chain of Thought reasoning not only for logic and arithmetic tasks, but also for semantic ones (and in particular, those that are a mix of both). For example, consider prompting an LM to write code that counts the number of times it detects sarcasm in an essay: the LM may struggle to write an implementation for "detect_sarcasm(string)" that can be executed by the interpreter (handling the edge cases would be insurmountable). However, LMs may still produce a valid solution if they not only write code, but also selectively "emulate" the interpreter by generating the expected output of "detect_sarcasm(string)". In this work, we propose Chain of Code (CoC), a simple yet surprisingly effective extension that improves LM code-driven reasoning. The key idea is to encourage LMs to format semantic sub-tasks in a program as flexible pseudocode that the interpreter can explicitly catch undefined behaviors and hand off to simulate with an LM (as an "LMulator"). Experiments demonstrate that Chain of Code outperforms Chain of Thought and other baselines across a variety of benchmarks; on BIG-Bench Hard, Chain of Code achieves 84%, a gain of 12% over Chain of Thought. In a nutshell, CoC broadens the scope of reasoning questions that LMs can answer by "thinking in code".

Pychop: Emulating Low-Precision Arithmetic in Numerical Methods and Neural Networks

Motivated by the growing demand for low-precision arithmetic in computational science, we exploit lower-precision emulation in Python -- widely regarded as the dominant programming language for numerical analysis and machine learning. Low-precision training has revolutionized deep learning by enabling more efficient computation and reduced memory and energy consumption while maintaining model fidelity. To better enable numerical experimentation with and exploration of low precision computation, we developed the Pychop library, which supports customizable floating-point formats and a comprehensive set of rounding modes in Python, allowing users to benefit from fast, low-precision emulation in numerous applications. Pychop also introduces interfaces for both PyTorch and JAX, enabling efficient low-precision emulation on GPUs for neural network training and inference with unparalleled flexibility. In this paper, we offer a comprehensive exposition of the design, implementation, validation, and practical application of Pychop, establishing it as a foundational tool for advancing efficient mixed-precision algorithms. Furthermore, we present empirical results on low-precision emulation for image classification and object detection using published datasets, illustrating the sensitivity of the use of low precision and offering valuable insights into its impact. Pychop enables in-depth investigations into the effects of numerical precision, facilitates the development of novel hardware accelerators, and integrates seamlessly into existing deep learning workflows. Software and experimental code are publicly available at https://github.com/inEXASCALE/pychop.

ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learning

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

Sparks of Large Audio Models: A Survey and Outlook

This survey paper provides a comprehensive overview of the recent advancements and challenges in applying large language models to the field of audio signal processing. Audio processing, with its diverse signal representations and a wide range of sources--from human voices to musical instruments and environmental sounds--poses challenges distinct from those found in traditional Natural Language Processing scenarios. Nevertheless, Large Audio Models, epitomized by transformer-based architectures, have shown marked efficacy in this sphere. By leveraging massive amount of data, these models have demonstrated prowess in a variety of audio tasks, spanning from Automatic Speech Recognition and Text-To-Speech to Music Generation, among others. Notably, recently these Foundational Audio Models, like SeamlessM4T, have started showing abilities to act as universal translators, supporting multiple speech tasks for up to 100 languages without any reliance on separate task-specific systems. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of state-of-the-art methodologies regarding Foundational Large Audio Models, their performance benchmarks, and their applicability to real-world scenarios. We also highlight current limitations and provide insights into potential future research directions in the realm of Large Audio Models with the intent to spark further discussion, thereby fostering innovation in the next generation of audio-processing systems. Furthermore, to cope with the rapid development in this area, we will consistently update the relevant repository with relevant recent articles and their open-source implementations at https://github.com/EmulationAI/awesome-large-audio-models.