Daily Papers

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

We consider offline Imitation Learning from corrupted demonstrations where a constant fraction of data can be noise or even arbitrary outliers. Classical approaches such as Behavior Cloning assumes that demonstrations are collected by an presumably optimal expert, hence may fail drastically when learning from corrupted demonstrations. We propose a novel robust algorithm by minimizing a Median-of-Means (MOM) objective which guarantees the accurate estimation of policy, even in the presence of constant fraction of outliers. Our theoretical analysis shows that our robust method in the corrupted setting enjoys nearly the same error scaling and sample complexity guarantees as the classical Behavior Cloning in the expert demonstration setting. Our experiments on continuous-control benchmarks validate that our method exhibits the predicted robustness and effectiveness, and achieves competitive results compared to existing imitation learning methods.

Fairness in artificial intelligence models has gained significantly more attention in recent years, especially in the area of medicine, as fairness in medical models is critical to people's well-being and lives. High-quality medical fairness datasets are needed to promote fairness learning research. Existing medical fairness datasets are all for classification tasks, and no fairness datasets are available for medical segmentation, while medical segmentation is an equally important clinical task as classifications, which can provide detailed spatial information on organ abnormalities ready to be assessed by clinicians. In this paper, we propose the first fairness dataset for medical segmentation named Harvard-FairSeg with 10,000 subject samples. In addition, we propose a fair error-bound scaling approach to reweight the loss function with the upper error-bound in each identity group, using the segment anything model (SAM). We anticipate that the segmentation performance equity can be improved by explicitly tackling the hard cases with high training errors in each identity group. To facilitate fair comparisons, we utilize a novel equity-scaled segmentation performance metric to compare segmentation metrics in the context of fairness, such as the equity-scaled Dice coefficient. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our fair error-bound scaling approach either has superior or comparable fairness performance to the state-of-the-art fairness learning models. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-fairseg10k.

Robot manipulation relying on learned object-centric descriptors became popular in recent years. Visual descriptors can easily describe manipulation task objectives, they can be learned efficiently using self-supervision, and they can encode actuated and even non-rigid objects. However, learning robust, view-invariant keypoints in a self-supervised approach requires a meticulous data collection approach involving precise calibration and expert supervision. In this paper we introduce Cycle-Correspondence Loss (CCL) for view-invariant dense descriptor learning, which adopts the concept of cycle-consistency, enabling a simple data collection pipeline and training on unpaired RGB camera views. The key idea is to autonomously detect valid pixel correspondences by attempting to use a prediction over a new image to predict the original pixel in the original image, while scaling error terms based on the estimated confidence. Our evaluation shows that we outperform other self-supervised RGB-only methods, and approach performance of supervised methods, both with respect to keypoint tracking as well as for a robot grasping downstream task.

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone require considerable costs in compute and energy. Here we focus on the scaling of error with dataset size and show how in theory we can break beyond power law scaling and potentially even reduce it to exponential scaling instead if we have access to a high-quality data pruning metric that ranks the order in which training examples should be discarded to achieve any pruned dataset size. We then test this improved scaling prediction with pruned dataset size empirically, and indeed observe better than power law scaling in practice on ResNets trained on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet. Next, given the importance of finding high-quality pruning metrics, we perform the first large-scale benchmarking study of ten different data pruning metrics on ImageNet. We find most existing high performing metrics scale poorly to ImageNet, while the best are computationally intensive and require labels for every image. We therefore developed a new simple, cheap and scalable self-supervised pruning metric that demonstrates comparable performance to the best supervised metrics. Overall, our work suggests that the discovery of good data-pruning metrics may provide a viable path forward to substantially improved neural scaling laws, thereby reducing the resource costs of modern deep learning.

Intelligence is a crucial trait for species to find solutions within a limited number of trial-and-error attempts. Building on this idea, we introduce Survival Game as a framework to evaluate intelligence based on the number of failed attempts in a trial-and-error process. Fewer failures indicate higher intelligence. When the expectation and variance of failure counts are both finite, it signals the ability to consistently find solutions to new challenges, which we define as the Autonomous Level of intelligence. Using Survival Game, we comprehensively evaluate existing AI systems. Our results show that while AI systems achieve the Autonomous Level in simple tasks, they are still far from it in more complex tasks, such as vision, search, recommendation, and language. While scaling current AI technologies might help, this would come at an astronomical cost. Projections suggest that achieving the Autonomous Level for general tasks would require 10^{26} parameters. To put this into perspective, loading such a massive model requires so many H100 GPUs that their total value is 10^{7} times that of Apple Inc.'s market value. Even with Moore's Law, supporting such a parameter scale would take 70 years. This staggering cost highlights the complexity of human tasks and the inadequacies of current AI technologies. To further investigate this phenomenon, we conduct a theoretical analysis of Survival Game and its experimental results. Our findings suggest that human tasks possess a criticality property. As a result, Autonomous Level requires a deep understanding of the task's underlying mechanisms. Current AI systems, however, do not fully grasp these mechanisms and instead rely on superficial mimicry, making it difficult for them to reach an autonomous level. We believe Survival Game can not only guide the future development of AI but also offer profound insights into human intelligence.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Large language models (LLMs) demand substantial computational and memory resources, creating deployment challenges. Quantization-aware training (QAT) addresses these challenges by reducing model precision while maintaining performance. However, the scaling behavior of QAT, especially at 4-bit precision (W4A4), is not well understood. Existing QAT scaling laws often ignore key factors such as the number of training tokens and quantization granularity, which limits their applicability. This paper proposes a unified scaling law for QAT that models quantization error as a function of model size, training data volume, and quantization group size. Through 268 QAT experiments, we show that quantization error decreases as model size increases, but rises with more training tokens and coarser quantization granularity. To identify the sources of W4A4 quantization error, we decompose it into weight and activation components. Both components follow the overall trend of W4A4 quantization error, but with different sensitivities. Specifically, weight quantization error increases more rapidly with more training tokens. Further analysis shows that the activation quantization error in the FC2 layer, caused by outliers, is the primary bottleneck of W4A4 QAT quantization error. By applying mixed-precision quantization to address this bottleneck, we demonstrate that weight and activation quantization errors can converge to similar levels. Additionally, with more training data, weight quantization error eventually exceeds activation quantization error, suggesting that reducing weight quantization error is also important in such scenarios. These findings offer key insights for improving QAT research and development.

Recently, Mixture of Experts (MoE) based Transformer has shown promising results in many domains. This is largely due to the following advantages of this architecture: firstly, MoE based Transformer can increase model capacity without computational cost increasing both at training and inference time. Besides, MoE based Transformer is a dynamic network which can adapt to the varying complexity of input instances in realworld applications. In this work, we explore the MoE based model for speech recognition, named SpeechMoE. To further control the sparsity of router activation and improve the diversity of gate values, we propose a sparsity L1 loss and a mean importance loss respectively. In addition, a new router architecture is used in SpeechMoE which can simultaneously utilize the information from a shared embedding network and the hierarchical representation of different MoE layers. Experimental results show that SpeechMoE can achieve lower character error rate (CER) with comparable computation cost than traditional static networks, providing 7.0%-23.0% relative CER improvements on four evaluation datasets.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in visuomotor control, yet ensuring their robustness in unstructured real-world environments remains a persistent challenge. In this paper, we investigate test-time scaling through the lens of sampling and verification as means to enhance the robustness and generalization of VLAs. We first demonstrate that the relationship between action error and the number of generated samples follows an exponentiated power law across a range of VLAs, indicating the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Building on these insights, we introduce RoboMonkey, a test-time scaling framework for VLAs. At deployment, RoboMonkey samples a small set of actions from a VLA, applies Gaussian perturbation and majority voting to construct an action proposal distribution, and then uses a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based verifier to select the optimal action. We propose a synthetic data generation pipeline for training such VLM-based action verifiers, and demonstrate that scaling the synthetic dataset consistently improves verification and downstream accuracy. Through extensive simulated and hardware experiments, we show that pairing existing VLAs with RoboMonkey yields significant performance gains, achieving a 25% absolute improvement on out-of-distribution tasks and 9% on in-distribution tasks. Additionally, when adapting to new robot setups, we show that fine-tuning both VLAs and action verifiers yields a 7% performance increase compared to fine-tuning VLAs alone.

Despite rapid progress in increasing the language coverage of automatic speech recognition, the field is still far from covering all languages with a known writing script. Recent work showed promising results with a zero-shot approach requiring only a small amount of text data, however, accuracy heavily depends on the quality of the used phonemizer which is often weak for unseen languages. In this paper, we present MMS Zero-shot a conceptually simpler approach based on romanization and an acoustic model trained on data in 1,078 different languages or three orders of magnitude more than prior art. MMS Zero-shot reduces the average character error rate by a relative 46% over 100 unseen languages compared to the best previous work. Moreover, the error rate of our approach is only 2.5x higher compared to in-domain supervised baselines, while our approach uses no labeled data for the evaluation languages at all.

We present the first systematic investigation of supervised scaling laws outside of an ImageNet-like context - on images of galaxies. We use 840k galaxy images and over 100M annotations by Galaxy Zoo volunteers, comparable in scale to Imagenet-1K. We find that adding annotated galaxy images provides a power law improvement in performance across all architectures and all tasks, while adding trainable parameters is effective only for some (typically more subjectively challenging) tasks. We then compare the downstream performance of finetuned models pretrained on either ImageNet-12k alone vs. additionally pretrained on our galaxy images. We achieve an average relative error rate reduction of 31% across 5 downstream tasks of scientific interest. Our finetuned models are more label-efficient and, unlike their ImageNet-12k-pretrained equivalents, often achieve linear transfer performance equal to that of end-to-end finetuning. We find relatively modest additional downstream benefits from scaling model size, implying that scaling alone is not sufficient to address our domain gap, and suggest that practitioners with qualitatively different images might benefit more from in-domain adaption followed by targeted downstream labelling.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Deep neural networks are typically trained using global error signals that backpropagate (BP) end-to-end, which is not only biologically implausible but also suffers from the update locking problem and requires huge memory consumption. Local learning, which updates each layer independently with a gradient-isolated auxiliary network, offers a promising alternative to address the above problems. However, existing local learning methods are confronted with a large accuracy gap with the BP counterpart, particularly for large-scale networks. This is due to the weak coupling between local layers and their subsequent network layers, as there is no gradient communication across layers. To tackle this issue, we put forward an augmented local learning method, dubbed AugLocal. AugLocal constructs each hidden layer's auxiliary network by uniformly selecting a small subset of layers from its subsequent network layers to enhance their synergy. We also propose to linearly reduce the depth of auxiliary networks as the hidden layer goes deeper, ensuring sufficient network capacity while reducing the computational cost of auxiliary networks. Our extensive experiments on four image classification datasets (i.e., CIFAR-10, SVHN, STL-10, and ImageNet) demonstrate that AugLocal can effectively scale up to tens of local layers with a comparable accuracy to BP-trained networks while reducing GPU memory usage by around 40%. The proposed AugLocal method, therefore, opens up a myriad of opportunities for training high-performance deep neural networks on resource-constrained platforms.Code is available at https://github.com/ChenxiangMA/AugLocal.

Most AI projects start with a Python notebook running on a single laptop; however, one usually needs to go through a mountain of pains to scale it to handle larger dataset (for both experimentation and production deployment). These usually entail many manual and error-prone steps for the data scientists to fully take advantage of the available hardware resources (e.g., SIMD instructions, multi-processing, quantization, memory allocation optimization, data partitioning, distributed computing, etc.). To address this challenge, we have open sourced BigDL 2.0 at https://github.com/intel-analytics/BigDL/ under Apache 2.0 license (combining the original BigDL and Analytics Zoo projects); using BigDL 2.0, users can simply build conventional Python notebooks on their laptops (with possible AutoML support), which can then be transparently accelerated on a single node (with up-to 9.6x speedup in our experiments), and seamlessly scaled out to a large cluster (across several hundreds servers in real-world use cases). BigDL 2.0 has already been adopted by many real-world users (such as Mastercard, Burger King, Inspur, etc.) in production.

Expanding the language coverage of speech technology has the potential to improve access to information for many more people. However, current speech technology is restricted to about one hundred languages which is a small fraction of the over 7,000 languages spoken around the world. The Massively Multilingual Speech (MMS) project increases the number of supported languages by 10-40x, depending on the task. The main ingredients are a new dataset based on readings of publicly available religious texts and effectively leveraging self-supervised learning. We built pre-trained wav2vec 2.0 models covering 1,406 languages, a single multilingual automatic speech recognition model for 1,107 languages, speech synthesis models for the same number of languages, as well as a language identification model for 4,017 languages. Experiments show that our multilingual speech recognition model more than halves the word error rate of Whisper on 54 languages of the FLEURS benchmark while being trained on a small fraction of the labeled data.

Audio-driven 3D facial animation aims to map input audio to realistic facial motion. Despite significant progress, limitations arise from inconsistent 3D annotations, restricting previous models to training on specific annotations and thereby constraining the training scale. In this work, we present UniTalker, a unified model featuring a multi-head architecture designed to effectively leverage datasets with varied annotations. To enhance training stability and ensure consistency among multi-head outputs, we employ three training strategies, namely, PCA, model warm-up, and pivot identity embedding. To expand the training scale and diversity, we assemble A2F-Bench, comprising five publicly available datasets and three newly curated datasets. These datasets contain a wide range of audio domains, covering multilingual speech voices and songs, thereby scaling the training data from commonly employed datasets, typically less than 1 hour, to 18.5 hours. With a single trained UniTalker model, we achieve substantial lip vertex error reductions of 9.2% for BIWI dataset and 13.7% for Vocaset. Additionally, the pre-trained UniTalker exhibits promise as the foundation model for audio-driven facial animation tasks. Fine-tuning the pre-trained UniTalker on seen datasets further enhances performance on each dataset, with an average error reduction of 6.3% on A2F-Bench. Moreover, fine-tuning UniTalker on an unseen dataset with only half the data surpasses prior state-of-the-art models trained on the full dataset. The code and dataset are available at the project page https://github.com/X-niper/UniTalker.

Dense retrieval in most industries employs dual-tower architectures to retrieve query-relevant documents. Due to online deployment requirements, existing real-world dense retrieval systems mainly enhance performance by designing negative sampling strategies, overlooking the advantages of scaling up. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited superior performance that can be leveraged for scaling up dense retrieval. However, scaling up retrieval models significantly increases online query latency. To address this challenge, we propose ScalingNote, a two-stage method to exploit the scaling potential of LLMs for retrieval while maintaining online query latency. The first stage is training dual towers, both initialized from the same LLM, to unlock the potential of LLMs for dense retrieval. Then, we distill only the query tower using mean squared error loss and cosine similarity to reduce online costs. Through theoretical analysis and comprehensive offline and online experiments, we show the effectiveness and efficiency of ScalingNote. Our two-stage scaling method outperforms end-to-end models and verifies the scaling law of dense retrieval with LLMs in industrial scenarios, enabling cost-effective scaling of dense retrieval systems. Our online method incorporating ScalingNote significantly enhances the relevance between retrieved documents and queries.

In this paper, we present an encoder-decoder model leveraging Flan-T5 for post-Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) Generative Speech Error Correction (GenSEC), and we refer to it as FlanEC. We explore its application within the GenSEC framework to enhance ASR outputs by mapping n-best hypotheses into a single output sentence. By utilizing n-best lists from ASR models, we aim to improve the linguistic correctness, accuracy, and grammaticality of final ASR transcriptions. Specifically, we investigate whether scaling the training data and incorporating diverse datasets can lead to significant improvements in post-ASR error correction. We evaluate FlanEC using the HyPoradise dataset, providing a comprehensive analysis of the model's effectiveness in this domain. Furthermore, we assess the proposed approach under different settings to evaluate model scalability and efficiency, offering valuable insights into the potential of instruction-tuned encoder-decoder models for this task.

Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization has become a popular technique for solving machine learning (ML) problems when first-order (FO) information is difficult or impossible to obtain. However, the scalability of ZO optimization remains an open problem: Its use has primarily been limited to relatively small-scale ML problems, such as sample-wise adversarial attack generation. To our best knowledge, no prior work has demonstrated the effectiveness of ZO optimization in training deep neural networks (DNNs) without a significant decrease in performance. To overcome this roadblock, we develop DeepZero, a principled ZO deep learning (DL) framework that can scale ZO optimization to DNN training from scratch through three primary innovations. First, we demonstrate the advantages of coordinatewise gradient estimation (CGE) over randomized vector-wise gradient estimation in training accuracy and computational efficiency. Second, we propose a sparsityinduced ZO training protocol that extends the model pruning methodology using only finite differences to explore and exploit the sparse DL prior in CGE. Third, we develop the methods of feature reuse and forward parallelization to advance the practical implementations of ZO training. Our extensive experiments show that DeepZero achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy on ResNet-20 trained on CIFAR-10, approaching FO training performance for the first time. Furthermore, we show the practical utility of DeepZero in applications of certified adversarial defense and DL-based partial differential equation error correction, achieving 10-20% improvement over SOTA. We believe our results will inspire future research on scalable ZO optimization and contribute to advancing DL with black box. Codes are available at https://github.com/OPTML-Group/DeepZero.

Automated visualization recommendations (vis-rec) help users to derive crucial insights from new datasets. Typically, such automated vis-rec models first calculate a large number of statistics from the datasets and then use machine-learning models to score or classify multiple visualizations choices to recommend the most effective ones, as per the statistics. However, state-of-the art models rely on very large number of expensive statistics and therefore using such models on large datasets become infeasible due to prohibitively large computational time, limiting the effectiveness of such techniques to most real world complex and large datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel reinforcement-learning (RL) based framework that takes a given vis-rec model and a time-budget from the user and identifies the best set of input statistics that would be most effective while generating the visual insights within a given time budget, using the given model. Using two state-of-the-art vis-rec models applied on three large real-world datasets, we show the effectiveness of our technique in significantly reducing time-to visualize with very small amount of introduced error. Our approach is about 10X times faster compared to the baseline approaches that introduce similar amounts of error.

We present the joint contribution of Unbabel and Instituto Superior T\'ecnico to the WMT 2023 Shared Task on Quality Estimation (QE). Our team participated on all tasks: sentence- and word-level quality prediction (task 1) and fine-grained error span detection (task 2). For all tasks, we build on the COMETKIWI-22 model (Rei et al., 2022b). Our multilingual approaches are ranked first for all tasks, reaching state-of-the-art performance for quality estimation at word-, span- and sentence-level granularity. Compared to the previous state-of-the-art COMETKIWI-22, we show large improvements in correlation with human judgements (up to 10 Spearman points). Moreover, we surpass the second-best multilingual submission to the shared-task with up to 3.8 absolute points.

An important goal of self-supervised learning is to enable model pre-training to benefit from almost unlimited data. However, one method that has recently become popular, namely masked image modeling (MIM), is suspected to be unable to benefit from larger data. In this work, we break this misconception through extensive experiments, with data scales ranging from 10\% of ImageNet-1K to full ImageNet-22K, model sizes ranging from 49 million to 1 billion, and training lengths ranging from 125K iterations to 500K iterations. Our study reveals that: (i) Masked image modeling is also demanding on larger data. We observed that very large models got over-fitted with relatively small data; (ii) The length of training matters. Large models trained with masked image modeling can benefit from more data with longer training; (iii) The validation loss in pre-training is a good indicator to measure how well the model performs for fine-tuning on multiple tasks. This observation allows us to pre-evaluate pre-trained models in advance without having to make costly trial-and-error assessments of downstream tasks. We hope that our findings will advance the understanding of masked image modeling in terms of scaling ability.

Scaling up language models has been empirically shown to improve performance on a wide range of downstream tasks. However, if we were to observe worse performance as a function of scale ("inverse scaling") on certain tasks, this would indicate that scaling can also encourage behaviors that are misaligned with human preferences. The Inverse Scaling Prize (McKenzie et al. 2022) identified eleven such inverse scaling tasks, evaluated on models of up to 280B parameters and up to 500 zettaFLOPs of training compute. This paper takes a closer look at these inverse scaling tasks. We evaluate models of up to 540B parameters, trained on five times more compute than those evaluated in the Inverse Scaling Prize. With this increased range of model sizes and training compute, only four out of the eleven tasks remain inverse scaling. Six out of the eleven tasks exhibit "U-shaped scaling", where performance decreases up to a certain size, and then increases again up to the largest model evaluated (the one remaining task displays positive scaling). In addition, we find that 1-shot examples and chain-of-thought can help mitigate undesirable scaling patterns even further. U-shaped scaling suggests that the inverse scaling trend observed in McKenzie et al. (2022) may not continue to hold for larger models, which we attribute to the presence of distractor tasks that only sufficiently large models can avoid.

Despite vision-language models' (VLMs) remarkable capabilities as versatile visual assistants, two substantial challenges persist within the existing VLM frameworks: (1) lacking task diversity in pretraining and visual instruction tuning, and (2) annotation error and bias in GPT-4 synthesized instruction tuning data. Both challenges lead to issues such as poor generalizability, hallucination, and catastrophic forgetting. To address these challenges, we construct Vision-Flan, the most diverse publicly available visual instruction tuning dataset to date, comprising 187 diverse tasks and 1,664,261 instances sourced from academic datasets, and each task is accompanied by an expert-written instruction. In addition, we propose a two-stage instruction tuning framework, in which VLMs are firstly finetuned on Vision-Flan and further tuned on GPT-4 synthesized data. We find this two-stage tuning framework significantly outperforms the traditional single-stage visual instruction tuning framework and achieves the state-of-the-art performance across a wide range of multi-modal evaluation benchmarks. Finally, we conduct in-depth analyses to understand visual instruction tuning and our findings reveal that: (1) GPT-4 synthesized data does not substantially enhance VLMs' capabilities but rather modulates the model's responses to human-preferred formats; (2) A minimal quantity (e.g., 1,000) of GPT-4 synthesized data can effectively align VLM responses with human-preference; (3) Visual instruction tuning mainly helps large-language models (LLMs) to understand visual features.

A significant aspiration of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is to develop a generalist agent with high capabilities from large and heterogeneous datasets. However, prior approaches that scale offline RL either rely heavily on expert trajectories or struggle to generalize to diverse unseen tasks. Inspired by the excellent generalization of world model in conditional video generation, we explore the potential of image observation-based world model for scaling offline RL and enhancing generalization on novel tasks. In this paper, we introduce JOWA: Jointly-Optimized World-Action model, an offline model-based RL agent pretrained on multiple Atari games with 6 billion tokens data to learn general-purpose representation and decision-making ability. Our method jointly optimizes a world-action model through a shared transformer backbone, which stabilize temporal difference learning with large models during pretraining. Moreover, we propose a provably efficient and parallelizable planning algorithm to compensate for the Q-value estimation error and thus search out better policies. Experimental results indicate that our largest agent, with 150 million parameters, achieves 78.9% human-level performance on pretrained games using only 10% subsampled offline data, outperforming existing state-of-the-art large-scale offline RL baselines by 31.6% on averange. Furthermore, JOWA scales favorably with model capacity and can sample-efficiently transfer to novel games using only 5k offline fine-tuning data (approximately 4 trajectories) per game, demonstrating superior generalization. We will release codes and model weights at https://github.com/CJReinforce/JOWA

Recent advances in test-time compute scaling have enabled Large Language Models (LLMs) to tackle deep reasoning tasks by generating a chain-of-thought (CoT) that includes trial and error, backtracking, and intermediate reasoning steps before producing the final answer. However, these techniques have been applied predominantly to popular languages, such as English, leaving reasoning in low-resource languages underexplored and misaligned. In this work, we investigate the multilingual mechanism by which LLMs internally operate in a latent space biased toward their inherently dominant language. To leverage this phenomenon for low-resource languages, we train models to generate the CoT in English while outputting the final response in the target language, given input in the low-resource language. Our experiments demonstrate that this approach, named English-Pivoted CoT Training, outperforms other baselines, including training to generate both the CoT and the final response solely in the target language, with up to 28.33% improvement. Further analysis provides novel insights into the relationships between reasoning and multilinguality of LLMs, prompting for better approaches in developing multilingual large reasoning models

While increasing training compute has significantly improved the performance of large language models (LLMs), similar gains have not been observed when scaling inference compute. We hypothesize that the primary issue lies in the uniformity of LLM outputs, which leads to inefficient sampling as models repeatedly generate similar but inaccurate responses. Motivated by an intriguing relationship between solution accuracy and response diversity, we propose DivSampling -- a novel and versatile sampling technique designed to enhance the diversity of candidate solutions by introducing prompt perturbations.DivSampling incorporates two categories of perturbations: task-agnostic approaches, which are general and not tailored to any specific task, and task-specific approaches, which are customized based on task content. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that, under mild assumptions, the error rates of responses generated from diverse prompts are significantly lower compared to those produced by stationary prompts. Comprehensive evaluations across various tasks -- including reasoning, mathematics, and code generation -- highlight the effectiveness of DivSampling in improving solution accuracy. This scalable and efficient approach offers a new perspective on optimizing test-time inference, addressing limitations in current sampling strategies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable abilities across various language tasks, but solving complex reasoning problems remains a challenge. While existing methods like Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Tree-of-Thought (ToT) enhance reasoning by decomposing problems or structuring prompts, they typically perform a single pass of reasoning and may fail to revisit flawed paths, compromising accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel reasoning framework called Forest-of-Thought (FoT), which integrates multiple reasoning trees to leverage collective decision-making for solving complex logical problems. FoT utilizes sparse activation strategies to select the most relevant reasoning paths, improving both efficiency and accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a dynamic self-correction strategy that enables real-time error correction and learning from past mistakes, as well as consensus-guided decision making strategies to optimize correctness and computational resources. Experimental results demonstrate that the FoT framework, combined with these strategies, significantly enhances the reasoning capabilities of LLMs, enabling them to solve complex tasks with greater precision and efficiency.

Attention-based neural networks such as the Vision Transformer (ViT) have recently attained state-of-the-art results on many computer vision benchmarks. Scale is a primary ingredient in attaining excellent results, therefore, understanding a model's scaling properties is a key to designing future generations effectively. While the laws for scaling Transformer language models have been studied, it is unknown how Vision Transformers scale. To address this, we scale ViT models and data, both up and down, and characterize the relationships between error rate, data, and compute. Along the way, we refine the architecture and training of ViT, reducing memory consumption and increasing accuracy of the resulting models. As a result, we successfully train a ViT model with two billion parameters, which attains a new state-of-the-art on ImageNet of 90.45% top-1 accuracy. The model also performs well for few-shot transfer, for example, reaching 84.86% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet with only 10 examples per class.

We present a state-of-the-art speech recognition system developed using end-to-end deep learning. Our architecture is significantly simpler than traditional speech systems, which rely on laboriously engineered processing pipelines; these traditional systems also tend to perform poorly when used in noisy environments. In contrast, our system does not need hand-designed components to model background noise, reverberation, or speaker variation, but instead directly learns a function that is robust to such effects. We do not need a phoneme dictionary, nor even the concept of a "phoneme." Key to our approach is a well-optimized RNN training system that uses multiple GPUs, as well as a set of novel data synthesis techniques that allow us to efficiently obtain a large amount of varied data for training. Our system, called Deep Speech, outperforms previously published results on the widely studied Switchboard Hub5'00, achieving 16.0% error on the full test set. Deep Speech also handles challenging noisy environments better than widely used, state-of-the-art commercial speech systems.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) is prohibitively expensive, creating a critical scaling gap where insights from small-scale experiments often fail to transfer to resource-intensive production systems, thereby hindering efficient innovation. To bridge this, we introduce Farseer, a novel and refined scaling law offering enhanced predictive accuracy across scales. By systematically constructing a model loss surface L(N,D), Farseer achieves a significantly better fit to empirical data than prior laws (e.g., Chinchilla's law). Our methodology yields accurate, robust, and highly generalizable predictions, demonstrating excellent extrapolation capabilities, improving upon Chinchilla's law by reducing extrapolation error by 433\%. This allows for the reliable evaluation of competing training strategies across all (N,D) settings, enabling conclusions from small-scale ablation studies to be confidently extrapolated to predict large-scale performance. Furthermore, Farseer provides new insights into optimal compute allocation, better reflecting the nuanced demands of modern LLM training. To validate our approach, we trained an extensive suite of approximately 1,000 LLMs across diverse scales and configurations, consuming roughly 3 million NVIDIA H100 GPU hours. We are comprehensively open-sourcing all models, data, results, and logs at https://github.com/Farseer-Scaling-Law/Farseer to foster further research.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches mainly rely on imitation learning and struggle to achieve effective test-time scaling. While reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for enabling self-exploration and learning from feedback, recent attempts yield only modest improvements in complex reasoning. In this paper, we present T1 to scale RL by encouraging exploration and understand inference scaling. We first initialize the LLM using synthesized chain-of-thought data that integrates trial-and-error and self-verification. To scale RL training, we promote increased sampling diversity through oversampling. We further employ an entropy bonus as an auxiliary loss, alongside a dynamic anchor for regularization to facilitate reward optimization. We demonstrate that T1 with open LLMs as its base exhibits inference scaling behavior and achieves superior performance on challenging math reasoning benchmarks. For example, T1 with Qwen2.5-32B as the base model outperforms the recent Qwen QwQ-32B-Preview model on MATH500, AIME2024, and Omni-math-500. More importantly, we present a simple strategy to examine inference scaling, where increased inference budgets directly lead to T1's better performance without any additional verification. We will open-source the T1 models and the data used to train them at https://github.com/THUDM/T1.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

Despite significant advancements in the general capability of large language models (LLMs), they continue to struggle with consistent and accurate reasoning, especially in complex tasks such as mathematical and code reasoning. One key limitation is that LLMs are trained primarily on correct solutions, reducing their ability to detect and learn from errors, which hampers their ability to reliably verify and rank outputs. To address this, we scale up the inference-time computation by generating multiple reasoning paths and employing verifiers to assess and rank the generated outputs by correctness. To facilitate this, we introduce a comprehensive dataset consisting of correct and incorrect solutions for math and code tasks, generated by multiple LLMs. This diverse set of solutions enables verifiers to more effectively distinguish and rank correct answers from erroneous outputs. The training methods for building verifiers were selected based on an extensive comparison of existing approaches. Moreover, to leverage the unique strengths of different reasoning strategies, we propose a novel collaborative method integrating Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Program-of-Thought (PoT) solutions for verification. CoT provides a clear, step-by-step reasoning process that enhances interpretability, while PoT, being executable, offers a precise and error-sensitive validation mechanism. By taking both of their strengths, our approach significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of reasoning verification. Our verifiers, Math-Rev and Code-Rev, demonstrate substantial performance gains to existing LLMs, achieving state-of-the-art results on benchmarks such as GSM8k and MATH and even outperforming GPT-4o with Qwen-72B-Instruct as the reasoner.

Recent advances in Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) have been largely fueled by massive speech corpora. However, extending coverage to diverse languages with limited resources remains a formidable challenge. This paper introduces Speech Back-Translation, a scalable pipeline that improves multilingual ASR models by converting large-scale text corpora into synthetic speech via off-the-shelf text-to-speech (TTS) models. We demonstrate that just tens of hours of real transcribed speech can effectively train TTS models to generate synthetic speech at hundreds of times the original volume while maintaining high quality. To evaluate synthetic speech quality, we develop an intelligibility-based assessment framework and establish clear thresholds for when synthetic data benefits ASR training. Using Speech Back-Translation, we generate more than 500,000 hours of synthetic speech in ten languages and continue pre-training Whisper-large-v3, achieving average transcription error reductions of over 30\%. These results highlight the scalability and effectiveness of Speech Back-Translation for enhancing multilingual ASR systems.

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

Biometric authentication systems that make use of signature verification methods often render optimum performance only under limited and restricted conditions. Such methods utilize several training samples so as to achieve high accuracy. Moreover, several constraints are imposed on the end-user so that the system may work optimally, and as expected. For example, the user is made to sign within a small box, in order to limit their signature to a predefined set of dimensions, thus eliminating scaling. Moreover, the angular rotation with respect to the referenced signature that will be inadvertently introduced as human error, hampers performance of biometric signature verification systems. To eliminate this, traditionally, a user is asked to sign exactly on top of a reference line. In this paper, we propose a robust system that optimizes the signature obtained from the user for a large range of variation in Rotation-Scaling-Translation (RST) and resolves these error parameters in the user signature according to the reference signature stored in the database.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities through test-time scaling approaches, particularly when fine-tuned with chain-of-thought (CoT) data distilled from more powerful large reasoning models (LRMs). However, these reasoning chains often contain verbose elements that mirror human problem-solving, categorized as progressive reasoning (the essential solution development path) and functional elements (verification processes, alternative solution approaches, and error corrections). While progressive reasoning is crucial, the functional elements significantly increase computational demands during test-time inference. We introduce PIR (Perplexity-based Importance Refinement), a principled framework that quantitatively evaluates the importance of each reasoning step based on its impact on answer prediction confidence. PIR systematically identifies and selectively prunes only low-importance functional steps while preserving progressive reasoning components, creating optimized training data that maintains the integrity of the core solution path while reducing verbosity. Models fine-tuned on PIR-optimized data exhibit superior test-time scaling properties, generating more concise reasoning chains while achieving improved accuracy (+0.9\% to +6.6\%) with significantly reduced token usage (-3\% to -41\%) across challenging reasoning benchmarks (AIME, AMC, and GPQA Diamond). Our approach demonstrates strong generalizability across different model sizes, data sources, and token budgets, offering a practical solution for deploying reasoning-capable LLMs in scenarios where efficient test-time scaling, response time, and computational efficiency are valuable constraints.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship between, loss, or task performance, and scale. All components of this process vary, from the specific equation being fit, to the training setup, to the optimization method. Each of these factors may affect the fitted law, and therefore, the conclusions of a given study. We discuss discrepancies in the conclusions that several prior works reach, on questions such as the optimal token to parameter ratio. We augment this discussion with our own analysis of the critical impact that changes in specific details may effect in a scaling study, and the resulting altered conclusions. Additionally, we survey over 50 papers that study scaling trends: while 45 of these papers quantify these trends using a power law, most under-report crucial details needed to reproduce their findings. To mitigate this, we we propose a checklist for authors to consider while contributing to scaling law research.

We present unit scaling, a paradigm for designing deep learning models that simplifies the use of low-precision number formats. Training in FP16 or the recently proposed FP8 formats offers substantial efficiency gains, but can lack sufficient range for out-of-the-box training. Unit scaling addresses this by introducing a principled approach to model numerics: seeking unit variance of all weights, activations and gradients at initialisation. Unlike alternative methods, this approach neither requires multiple training runs to find a suitable scale nor has significant computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of unit scaling across a range of models and optimisers. We further show that existing models can be adapted to be unit-scaled, training BERT-Large in FP16 and then FP8 with no degradation in accuracy.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

In the realm of large language models (LLMs), enhancing instruction-following capability often involves curating expansive training data. This is achieved through two primary schemes: i) Scaling-Inputs: Amplifying (input, output) pairs per task instruction, aiming for better instruction adherence. ii) Scaling Input-Free Tasks: Enlarging tasks, each composed of an (instruction, output) pair (without requiring a separate input anymore). However, LLMs under Scaling-Inputs tend to be overly sensitive to inputs, leading to misinterpretation or non-compliance with instructions. Conversely, Scaling Input-Free Tasks demands a substantial number of tasks but is less effective in instruction following when dealing with instances in Scaling-Inputs. This work introduces MUFFIN, a new scheme of instruction-following dataset curation. Specifically, we automatically Scale Tasks per Input by diversifying these tasks with various input facets. Experimental results across four zero-shot benchmarks, spanning both Scaling-Inputs and Scaling Input-Free Tasks schemes, reveal that LLMs, at various scales, trained on MUFFIN generally demonstrate superior instruction-following capabilities compared to those trained on the two aforementioned schemes.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Scale has become a main ingredient in obtaining strong machine learning models. As a result, understanding a model's scaling properties is key to effectively designing both the right training setup as well as future generations of architectures. In this work, we argue that scale and training research has been needlessly complex due to reliance on the cosine schedule, which prevents training across different lengths for the same model size. We investigate the training behavior of a direct alternative - constant learning rate and cooldowns - and find that it scales predictably and reliably similar to cosine. Additionally, we show that stochastic weight averaging yields improved performance along the training trajectory, without additional training costs, across different scales. Importantly, with these findings we demonstrate that scaling experiments can be performed with significantly reduced compute and GPU hours by utilizing fewer but reusable training runs.

Scaling laws are a critical component of the LLM development pipeline, most famously as a way to forecast training decisions such as 'compute-optimally' trading-off parameter count and dataset size, alongside a more recent growing list of other crucial decisions. In this work, we ask whether compute-optimal scaling behaviour can be skill-dependent. In particular, we examine knowledge and reasoning-based skills such as knowledge-based QA and code generation, and we answer this question in the affirmative: scaling laws are skill-dependent. Next, to understand whether skill-dependent scaling is an artefact of the pretraining datamix, we conduct an extensive ablation of different datamixes and find that, also when correcting for datamix differences, knowledge and code exhibit fundamental differences in scaling behaviour. We conclude with an analysis of how our findings relate to standard compute-optimal scaling using a validation set, and find that a misspecified validation set can impact compute-optimal parameter count by nearly 50%, depending on its skill composition.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Work on scaling laws has found that large language models (LMs) show predictable improvements to overall loss with increased scale (model size, training data, and compute). Here, we present evidence for the claim that LMs may show inverse scaling, or worse task performance with increased scale, e.g., due to flaws in the training objective and data. We present empirical evidence of inverse scaling on 11 datasets collected by running a public contest, the Inverse Scaling Prize, with a substantial prize pool. Through analysis of the datasets, along with other examples found in the literature, we identify four potential causes of inverse scaling: (i) preference to repeat memorized sequences over following in-context instructions, (ii) imitation of undesirable patterns in the training data, (iii) tasks containing an easy distractor task which LMs could focus on, rather than the harder real task, and (iv) correct but misleading few-shot demonstrations of the task. We release the winning datasets at https://inversescaling.com/data to allow for further investigation of inverse scaling. Our tasks have helped drive the discovery of U-shaped and inverted-U scaling trends, where an initial trend reverses, suggesting that scaling trends are less reliable at predicting the behavior of larger-scale models than previously understood. Overall, our results suggest that there are tasks for which increased model scale alone may not lead to progress, and that more careful thought needs to go into the data and objectives for training language models.

Recent studies have showcased remarkable capabilities of decoder-only models in many NLP tasks, including translation. Yet, the machine translation field has been largely dominated by encoder-decoder models based on the Transformer architecture. As a consequence, scaling laws of encoder-decoder models for neural machine translation have already been well studied, but decoder-only models have received less attention. This work explores the scaling laws of decoder-only models on the multilingual and multidomain translation task. We trained a collection of six decoder-only models, ranging from 70M to 7B parameters, on a sentence-level, multilingual and multidomain dataset. We conducted a series of experiments showing that the loss of decoder-only models can be estimated using a scaling law similar to the one discovered for large language models, but we also show that this scaling law has difficulties to generalize to too large models or to a different data distribution. We also study different scaling methods and show that scaling the depth and the width of a model lead to similar test loss improvements, but with different impact on the model's efficiency.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

Language models have been shown to exhibit positive scaling, where performance improves as models are scaled up in terms of size, compute, or data. In this work, we introduce NeQA, a dataset consisting of questions with negation in which language models do not exhibit straightforward positive scaling. We show that this task can exhibit inverse scaling, U-shaped scaling, or positive scaling, and the three scaling trends shift in this order as we use more powerful prompting methods or model families. We hypothesize that solving NeQA depends on two subtasks: question answering (task 1) and negation understanding (task 2). We find that task 1 has linear scaling, while task 2 has sigmoid-shaped scaling with an emergent transition point, and composing these two scaling trends yields the final scaling trend of NeQA. Our work reveals and provides a way to analyze the complex scaling trends of language models.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

In this work we analyze strategies for convolutional neural network scaling; that is, the process of scaling a base convolutional network to endow it with greater computational complexity and consequently representational power. Example scaling strategies may include increasing model width, depth, resolution, etc. While various scaling strategies exist, their tradeoffs are not fully understood. Existing analysis typically focuses on the interplay of accuracy and flops (floating point operations). Yet, as we demonstrate, various scaling strategies affect model parameters, activations, and consequently actual runtime quite differently. In our experiments we show the surprising result that numerous scaling strategies yield networks with similar accuracy but with widely varying properties. This leads us to propose a simple fast compound scaling strategy that encourages primarily scaling model width, while scaling depth and resolution to a lesser extent. Unlike currently popular scaling strategies, which result in about O(s) increase in model activation w.r.t. scaling flops by a factor of s, the proposed fast compound scaling results in close to O(s) increase in activations, while achieving excellent accuracy. This leads to comparable speedups on modern memory-limited hardware (e.g., GPU, TPU). More generally, we hope this work provides a framework for analyzing and selecting scaling strategies under various computational constraints.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

The backpropagation algorithm has long been the canonical training method for neural networks. Modern paradigms are implicitly optimized for it, and numerous guidelines exist to ensure its proper use. Recently, synthetic gradients methods -where the error gradient is only roughly approximated - have garnered interest. These methods not only better portray how biological brains are learning, but also open new computational possibilities, such as updating layers asynchronously. Even so, they have failed to scale past simple tasks like MNIST or CIFAR-10. This is in part due to a lack of standards, leading to ill-suited models and practices forbidding such methods from performing to the best of their abilities. In this work, we focus on direct feedback alignment and present a set of best practices justified by observations of the alignment angles. We characterize a bottleneck effect that prevents alignment in narrow layers, and hypothesize it may explain why feedback alignment methods have yet to scale to large convolutional networks.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

Recent neural network-based language models have benefited greatly from scaling up the size of training datasets and the number of parameters in the models themselves. Scaling can be complicated due to various factors including the need to distribute computation on supercomputer clusters (e.g., TPUs), prevent bottlenecks when infeeding data, and ensure reproducible results. In this work, we present two software libraries that ease these issues: t5x simplifies the process of building and training large language models at scale while maintaining ease of use, and seqio provides a task-based API for simple creation of fast and reproducible training data and evaluation pipelines. These open-source libraries have been used to train models with hundreds of billions of parameters on datasets with multiple terabytes of training data. Along with the libraries, we release configurations and instructions for T5-like encoder-decoder models as well as GPT-like decoder-only architectures. t5x and seqio are open source and available at https://github.com/google-research/t5x and https://github.com/google/seqio, respectively.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

While large language models (LLMs) often adopt finetuning to unlock their capabilities for downstream applications, our understanding on the inductive biases (especially the scaling properties) of different finetuning methods is still limited. To fill this gap, we conduct systematic experiments studying whether and how different scaling factors, including LLM model size, pretraining data size, new finetuning parameter size and finetuning data size, affect the finetuning performance. We consider two types of finetuning -- full-model tuning (FMT) and parameter efficient tuning (PET, including prompt tuning and LoRA), and explore their scaling behaviors in the data-limited regime where the LLM model size substantially outweighs the finetuning data size. Based on two sets of pretrained bilingual LLMs from 1B to 16B and experiments on bilingual machine translation and multilingual summarization benchmarks, we find that 1) LLM finetuning follows a powerbased multiplicative joint scaling law between finetuning data size and each other scaling factor; 2) LLM finetuning benefits more from LLM model scaling than pretraining data scaling, and PET parameter scaling is generally ineffective; and 3) the optimal finetuning method is highly task- and finetuning data-dependent. We hope our findings could shed light on understanding, selecting and developing LLM finetuning methods.

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

It is becoming increasingly clear that many machine learning classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples. In attempting to explain the origin of adversarial examples, previous studies have typically focused on the fact that neural networks operate on high dimensional data, they overfit, or they are too linear. Here we argue that the origin of adversarial examples is primarily due to an inherent uncertainty that neural networks have about their predictions. We show that the functional form of this uncertainty is independent of architecture, dataset, and training protocol; and depends only on the statistics of the logit differences of the network, which do not change significantly during training. This leads to adversarial error having a universal scaling, as a power-law, with respect to the size of the adversarial perturbation. We show that this universality holds for a broad range of datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10, ImageNet, and random data), models (including state-of-the-art deep networks, linear models, adversarially trained networks, and networks trained on randomly shuffled labels), and attacks (FGSM, step l.l., PGD). Motivated by these results, we study the effects of reducing prediction entropy on adversarial robustness. Finally, we study the effect of network architectures on adversarial sensitivity. To do this, we use neural architecture search with reinforcement learning to find adversarially robust architectures on CIFAR10. Our resulting architecture is more robust to white and black box attacks compared to previous attempts.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Neural network scaling has been critical for improving the model quality in many real-world machine learning applications with vast amounts of training data and compute. Although this trend of scaling is affirmed to be a sure-fire approach for better model quality, there are challenges on the path such as the computation cost, ease of programming, and efficient implementation on parallel devices. GShard is a module composed of a set of lightweight annotation APIs and an extension to the XLA compiler. It provides an elegant way to express a wide range of parallel computation patterns with minimal changes to the existing model code. GShard enabled us to scale up multilingual neural machine translation Transformer model with Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts beyond 600 billion parameters using automatic sharding. We demonstrate that such a giant model can efficiently be trained on 2048 TPU v3 accelerators in 4 days to achieve far superior quality for translation from 100 languages to English compared to the prior art.

Scaling inference compute enhances reasoning in large language models (LLMs), with long chains-of-thought (CoTs) enabling strategies like backtracking and error correction. Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a crucial method for developing these capabilities, yet the conditions under which long CoTs emerge remain unclear, and RL training requires careful design choices. In this study, we systematically investigate the mechanics of long CoT reasoning, identifying the key factors that enable models to generate long CoT trajectories. Through extensive supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and RL experiments, we present four main findings: (1) While SFT is not strictly necessary, it simplifies training and improves efficiency; (2) Reasoning capabilities tend to emerge with increased training compute, but their development is not guaranteed, making reward shaping crucial for stabilizing CoT length growth; (3) Scaling verifiable reward signals is critical for RL. We find that leveraging noisy, web-extracted solutions with filtering mechanisms shows strong potential, particularly for out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks such as STEM reasoning; and (4) Core abilities like error correction are inherently present in base models, but incentivizing these skills effectively for complex tasks via RL demands significant compute, and measuring their emergence requires a nuanced approach. These insights provide practical guidance for optimizing training strategies to enhance long CoT reasoning in LLMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/eddycmu/demystify-long-cot.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) highlight a strong connection between intelligence and compression. Learned image compression, a fundamental task in modern data compression, has made significant progress in recent years. However, current models remain limited in scale, restricting their representation capacity, and how scaling model size influences compression performance remains unexplored. In this work, we present a pioneering study on scaling up learned image compression models and revealing the performance trends through scaling laws. Using the recent state-of-the-art HPCM model as baseline, we scale model parameters from 68.5 millions to 1 billion and fit power-law relations between test loss and key scaling variables, including model size and optimal training compute. The results reveal a scaling trend, enabling extrapolation to larger scale models. Experimental results demonstrate that the scaled-up HPCM-1B model achieves state-of-the-art rate-distortion performance. We hope this work inspires future exploration of large-scale compression models and deeper investigations into the connection between compression and intelligence.

FP8 formats are gaining popularity to boost the computational efficiency for training and inference of large deep learning models. Their main challenge is that a careful choice of scaling is needed to prevent degradation due to the reduced dynamic range compared to higher-precision formats. Although there exists ample literature about selecting such scalings for INT formats, this critical aspect has yet to be addressed for FP8. This paper presents a methodology to select the scalings for FP8 linear layers, based on dynamically updating per-tensor scales for the weights, gradients and activations. We apply this methodology to train and validate large language models of the type of GPT and Llama 2 using FP8, for model sizes ranging from 111M to 70B. To facilitate the understanding of the FP8 dynamics, our results are accompanied by plots of the per-tensor scale distribution for weights, activations and gradients during both training and inference.

Foundation models, or large atomistic models (LAMs), aim to universally represent the ground-state potential energy surface (PES) of atomistic systems as defined by density functional theory (DFT). The scaling law is pivotal in the development of large models, suggesting that their generalizability in downstream tasks consistently improves with increased model size, expanded training datasets, and larger computational budgets. In this study, we present DPA3, a multi-layer graph neural network founded on line graph series (LiGS), designed explicitly for the era of LAMs. We demonstrate that the generalization error of the DPA3 model adheres to the scaling law. The scalability in the number of model parameters is attained by stacking additional layers within DPA3. Additionally, the model employs a dataset encoding mechanism that decouples the scaling of training data size from the model size within its multi-task training framework. When trained as problem-oriented potential energy models, the DPA3 model exhibits superior accuracy in the majority of benchmark cases, encompassing systems with diverse features, including molecules, bulk materials, surface and cluster catalysts, two-dimensional materials, and battery materials. When trained as a LAM on the OpenLAM-v1 dataset, the DPA-3.1-3M model exhibits state-of-the-art performance in the LAMBench benchmark suite for LAMs, demonstrating lowest overall zero-shot generalization error across 17 downstream tasks from a broad spectrum of research domains. This performance suggests superior accuracy as an out-of-the-box potential model, requiring minimal fine-tuning data for downstream scientific applications.

Scaling the capacity of language models has consistently proven to be a reliable approach for improving performance and unlocking new capabilities. Capacity can be primarily defined by two dimensions: the number of model parameters and the compute per example. While scaling typically involves increasing both, the precise interplay between these factors and their combined contribution to overall capacity remains not fully understood. We explore this relationship in the context of sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs), which allow scaling the number of parameters without proportionally increasing the FLOPs per example. We investigate how varying the sparsity level, i.e., the fraction of inactive parameters, impacts model's performance during pretraining and downstream few-shot evaluation. We find that under different constraints (e.g., parameter size and total training compute), there is an optimal level of sparsity that improves both training efficiency and model performance. These results provide a better understanding of the impact of sparsity in scaling laws for MoEs and complement existing works in this area, offering insights for designing more efficient architectures.

The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has paved the way for AI search engines, e.g., SearchGPT, showcasing a new paradigm in human-internet interaction. However, most current AI search engines are limited to text-only settings, neglecting the multimodal user queries and the text-image interleaved nature of website information. Recently, Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have made impressive strides. Yet, whether they can function as AI search engines remains under-explored, leaving the potential of LMMs in multimodal search an open question. To this end, we first design a delicate pipeline, MMSearch-Engine, to empower any LMMs with multimodal search capabilities. On top of this, we introduce MMSearch, a comprehensive evaluation benchmark to assess the multimodal search performance of LMMs. The curated dataset contains 300 manually collected instances spanning 14 subfields, which involves no overlap with the current LMMs' training data, ensuring the correct answer can only be obtained within searching. By using MMSearch-Engine, the LMMs are evaluated by performing three individual tasks (requery, rerank, and summarization), and one challenging end-to-end task with a complete searching process. We conduct extensive experiments on closed-source and open-source LMMs. Among all tested models, GPT-4o with MMSearch-Engine achieves the best results, which surpasses the commercial product, Perplexity Pro, in the end-to-end task, demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed pipeline. We further present error analysis to unveil current LMMs still struggle to fully grasp the multimodal search tasks, and conduct ablation study to indicate the potential of scaling test-time computation for AI search engine. We hope MMSearch may provide unique insights to guide the future development of multimodal AI search engine. Project Page: https://mmsearch.github.io

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a promising technique for decomposing language model activations into interpretable linear features. However, current SAEs fall short of completely explaining model performance, resulting in "dark matter": unexplained variance in activations. This work investigates dark matter as an object of study in its own right. Surprisingly, we find that much of SAE dark matter--about half of the error vector itself and >90% of its norm--can be linearly predicted from the initial activation vector. Additionally, we find that the scaling behavior of SAE error norms at a per token level is remarkably predictable: larger SAEs mostly struggle to reconstruct the same contexts as smaller SAEs. We build on the linear representation hypothesis to propose models of activations that might lead to these observations, including postulating a new type of "introduced error"; these insights imply that the part of the SAE error vector that cannot be linearly predicted ("nonlinear" error) might be fundamentally different from the linearly predictable component. To validate this hypothesis, we empirically analyze nonlinear SAE error and show that 1) it contains fewer not yet learned features, 2) SAEs trained on it are quantitatively worse, 3) it helps predict SAE per-token scaling behavior, and 4) it is responsible for a proportional amount of the downstream increase in cross entropy loss when SAE activations are inserted into the model. Finally, we examine two methods to reduce nonlinear SAE error at a fixed sparsity: inference time gradient pursuit, which leads to a very slight decrease in nonlinear error, and linear transformations from earlier layer SAE outputs, which leads to a larger reduction.

Diffusion language models have emerged as a promising approach for text generation. One would naturally expect this method to be an efficient replacement for autoregressive models since multiple tokens can be sampled in parallel during each diffusion step. However, its efficiency-accuracy trade-off is not yet well understood. In this paper, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of a widely used type of diffusion language model, the Masked Diffusion Model (MDM), and find that its effectiveness heavily depends on the target evaluation metric. Under mild conditions, we prove that when using perplexity as the metric, MDMs can achieve near-optimal perplexity in sampling steps regardless of sequence length, demonstrating that efficiency can be achieved without sacrificing performance. However, when using the sequence error rate--which is important for understanding the "correctness" of a sequence, such as a reasoning chain--we show that the required sampling steps must scale linearly with sequence length to obtain "correct" sequences, thereby eliminating MDM's efficiency advantage over autoregressive models. Our analysis establishes the first theoretical foundation for understanding the benefits and limitations of MDMs. All theoretical findings are supported by empirical studies.

Efficiently compiling quantum operations remains a major bottleneck in scaling quantum computing. Today's state-of-the-art methods achieve low compilation error by combining search algorithms with gradient-based parameter optimization, but they incur long runtimes and require multiple calls to quantum hardware or expensive classical simulations, making their scaling prohibitive. Recently, machine-learning models have emerged as an alternative, though they are currently restricted to discrete gate sets. Here, we introduce a multimodal denoising diffusion model that simultaneously generates a circuit's structure and its continuous parameters for compiling a target unitary. It leverages two independent diffusion processes, one for discrete gate selection and one for parameter prediction. We benchmark the model over different experiments, analyzing the method's accuracy across varying qubit counts, circuit depths, and proportions of parameterized gates. Finally, by exploiting its rapid circuit generation, we create large datasets of circuits for particular operations and use these to extract valuable heuristics that can help us discover new insights into quantum circuit synthesis.

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.

The current trend of scaling language models involves increasing both parameter count and training dataset size. Extrapolating this trend suggests that training dataset size may soon be limited by the amount of text data available on the internet. Motivated by this limit, we investigate scaling language models in data-constrained regimes. Specifically, we run a large set of experiments varying the extent of data repetition and compute budget, ranging up to 900 billion training tokens and 9 billion parameter models. We find that with constrained data for a fixed compute budget, training with up to 4 epochs of repeated data yields negligible changes to loss compared to having unique data. However, with more repetition, the value of adding compute eventually decays to zero. We propose and empirically validate a scaling law for compute optimality that accounts for the decreasing value of repeated tokens and excess parameters. Finally, we experiment with approaches mitigating data scarcity, including augmenting the training dataset with code data or removing commonly used filters. Models and datasets from our 400 training runs are publicly available at https://github.com/huggingface/datablations.

We present an online post-hoc calibration method, called Online Platt Scaling (OPS), which combines the Platt scaling technique with online logistic regression. We demonstrate that OPS smoothly adapts between i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. settings with distribution drift. Further, in scenarios where the best Platt scaling model is itself miscalibrated, we enhance OPS by incorporating a recently developed technique called calibeating to make it more robust. Theoretically, our resulting OPS+calibeating method is guaranteed to be calibrated for adversarial outcome sequences. Empirically, it is effective on a range of synthetic and real-world datasets, with and without distribution drifts, achieving superior performance without hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we extend all OPS ideas to the beta scaling method.

We propose Low-Rank Sparse Attention (Lorsa), a sparse replacement model of Transformer attention layers to disentangle original Multi Head Self Attention (MHSA) into individually comprehensible components. Lorsa is designed to address the challenge of attention superposition to understand attention-mediated interaction between features in different token positions. We show that Lorsa heads find cleaner and finer-grained versions of previously discovered MHSA behaviors like induction heads, successor heads and attention sink behavior (i.e., heavily attending to the first token). Lorsa and Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) are both sparse dictionary learning methods applied to different Transformer components, and lead to consistent findings in many ways. For instance, we discover a comprehensive family of arithmetic-specific Lorsa heads, each corresponding to an atomic operation in Llama-3.1-8B. Automated interpretability analysis indicates that Lorsa achieves parity with SAE in interpretability while Lorsa exhibits superior circuit discovery properties, especially for features computed collectively by multiple MHSA heads. We also conduct extensive experiments on architectural design ablation, Lorsa scaling law and error analysis.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

In this paper, it is shown that if a sequence of resistance metric spaces equipped with measures converges with respect to the local Gromov-Hausdorff-vague topology, and certain non-explosion and metric-entropy conditions are satisfied, then the associated stochastic processes and their local times also converge. The metric-entropy condition can be checked by applying volume estimates of balls. Whilst similar results have been proved previously, the approach of this article is more widely applicable. Indeed, we recover various known conclusions for scaling limits of some deterministic self-similar fractal graphs, critical Galton-Watson trees, the critical Erdos-R\'enyi random graph and the configuration model (in the latter two cases, we prove for the first time the convergence of the models with respect to the resistance metric and also, for the configuration model, we overcome an error in the existing proof of local time convergence). Moreover, we derive new ones for scaling limits of uniform spanning trees and random recursive fractals. The metric-entropy condition also implies convergence of associated Gaussian processes.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

Large language models (LLMs) have showcased profound capabilities in language understanding and generation, facilitating a wide array of applications. However, there is a notable paucity of detailed, open-sourced methodologies on efficiently scaling LLMs beyond 50 billion parameters with minimum trial-and-error cost and computational resources. In this report, we introduce Tele-FLM (aka FLM-2), a 52B open-sourced multilingual large language model that features a stable, efficient pre-training paradigm and enhanced factual judgment capabilities. Tele-FLM demonstrates superior multilingual language modeling abilities, measured by BPB on textual corpus. Besides, in both English and Chinese foundation model evaluation, it is comparable to strong open-sourced models that involve larger pre-training FLOPs, such as Llama2-70B and DeepSeek-67B. In addition to the model weights, we share the core designs, engineering practices, and training details, which we expect to benefit both the academic and industrial communities.

This paper explores network binarization, a radical form of quantization, compressing model weights to a single bit, specifically for Large Language Models (LLMs) compression. Due to previous binarization methods collapsing LLMs, we propose a novel approach, Partially-Binarized LLM (PB-LLM), which can achieve extreme low-bit quantization while maintaining the linguistic reasoning capacity of quantized LLMs. Specifically, our exploration first uncovers the ineffectiveness of naive applications of existing binarization algorithms and highlights the imperative role of salient weights in achieving low-bit quantization. Thus, PB-LLM filters a small ratio of salient weights during binarization, allocating them to higher-bit storage, i.e., partially-binarization. PB-LLM is extended to recover the capacities of quantized LMMs, by analyzing from the perspective of post-training quantization (PTQ) and quantization-aware training (QAT). Under PTQ, combining the concepts from GPTQ, we reconstruct the binarized weight matrix guided by the Hessian matrix and successfully recover the reasoning capacity of PB-LLM in low-bit. Under QAT, we freeze the salient weights during training, explore the derivation of optimal scaling factors crucial for minimizing the quantization error, and propose a scaling mechanism based on this derived scaling strategy for residual binarized weights. Those explorations and the developed methodologies significantly contribute to rejuvenating the performance of low-bit quantized LLMs and present substantial advancements in the field of network binarization for LLMs.The code is available at https://github.com/hahnyuan/BinaryLLM.

We present a grammar error correction (GEC) system that achieves state of the art for the Czech language. Our system is based on a neural network translation approach with the Transformer architecture, and its key feature is its real-time synthetic generation pipeline, which dynamically augments sentences with artificial errors by introducing both language-agnostic and Czech-specific errors. We conduct a comprehensive series of experiments, investigating the Czech GEC corpora as bases for synthetic error introduction, several error generation strategies, domain balancing, tokenization granularity, model size, and data scaling during fine-tuning. Additionally, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) on Czech GEC in both end-user and expert fine-tuning scenarios. Our best-performing model is superior both in performance and computational efficiency. The source code and the trained model links are available on https://github.com/ufal/tsd2025-gec.

Multi-view 3D reconstruction has remained an essential yet challenging problem in the field of computer vision. While DUSt3R and its successors have achieved breakthroughs in 3D reconstruction from unposed images, these methods exhibit significant limitations when scaling to multi-view scenarios, including high computational cost and cumulative error induced by global alignment. To address these challenges, we propose Regist3R, a novel stereo foundation model tailored for efficient and scalable incremental reconstruction. Regist3R leverages an incremental reconstruction paradigm, enabling large-scale 3D reconstructions from unordered and many-view image collections. We evaluate Regist3R on public datasets for camera pose estimation and 3D reconstruction. Our experiments demonstrate that Regist3R achieves comparable performance with optimization-based methods while significantly improving computational efficiency, and outperforms existing multi-view reconstruction models. Furthermore, to assess its performance in real-world applications, we introduce a challenging oblique aerial dataset which has long spatial spans and hundreds of views. The results highlight the effectiveness of Regist3R. We also demonstrate the first attempt to reconstruct large-scale scenes encompassing over thousands of views through pointmap-based foundation models, showcasing its potential for practical applications in large-scale 3D reconstruction tasks, including urban modeling, aerial mapping, and beyond.

We propose a multitask pretraining approach ZeroPrompt for zero-shot generalization, focusing on task scaling and zero-shot prompting. While previous models are trained on only a few dozen tasks, we scale to 1,000 tasks for the first time using real-world data. This leads to a crucial discovery that task scaling can be an efficient alternative to model scaling; i.e., the model size has little impact on performance with an extremely large number of tasks. Our results show that task scaling can substantially improve training efficiency by 30 times in FLOPs. Moreover, we present a prompting method that incorporates a genetic algorithm to automatically search for the best prompt for unseen tasks, along with a few other improvements. Empirically, ZeroPrompt substantially improves both the efficiency and the performance of zero-shot learning across a variety of academic and production datasets.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Vision-language models (VLMs) are trained for thousands of GPU hours on carefully curated web datasets. In recent times, data curation has gained prominence with several works developing strategies to retain 'high-quality' subsets of 'raw' scraped data. For instance, the LAION public dataset retained only 10% of the total crawled data. However, these strategies are typically developed agnostic of the available compute for training. In this paper, we first demonstrate that making filtering decisions independent of training compute is often suboptimal: the limited high-quality data rapidly loses its utility when repeated, eventually requiring the inclusion of 'unseen' but 'lower-quality' data. To address this quality-quantity tradeoff (QQT), we introduce neural scaling laws that account for the non-homogeneous nature of web data, an angle ignored in existing literature. Our scaling laws (i) characterize the differing 'utility' of various quality subsets of web data; (ii) account for how utility diminishes for a data point at its 'nth' repetition; and (iii) formulate the mutual interaction of various data pools when combined, enabling the estimation of model performance on a combination of multiple data pools without ever jointly training on them. Our key message is that data curation cannot be agnostic of the total compute that a model will be trained for. Our scaling laws allow us to curate the best possible pool for achieving top performance on Datacomp at various compute budgets, carving out a pareto-frontier for data curation. Code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/scaling_laws_data_filtering.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

We present an empirical study of scaling properties of encoder-decoder Transformer models used in neural machine translation (NMT). We show that cross-entropy loss as a function of model size follows a certain scaling law. Specifically (i) We propose a formula which describes the scaling behavior of cross-entropy loss as a bivariate function of encoder and decoder size, and show that it gives accurate predictions under a variety of scaling approaches and languages; we show that the total number of parameters alone is not sufficient for such purposes. (ii) We observe different power law exponents when scaling the decoder vs scaling the encoder, and provide recommendations for optimal allocation of encoder/decoder capacity based on this observation. (iii) We also report that the scaling behavior of the model is acutely influenced by composition bias of the train/test sets, which we define as any deviation from naturally generated text (either via machine generated or human translated text). We observe that natural text on the target side enjoys scaling, which manifests as successful reduction of the cross-entropy loss. (iv) Finally, we investigate the relationship between the cross-entropy loss and the quality of the generated translations. We find two different behaviors, depending on the nature of the test data. For test sets which were originally translated from target language to source language, both loss and BLEU score improve as model size increases. In contrast, for test sets originally translated from source language to target language, the loss improves, but the BLEU score stops improving after a certain threshold. We release generated text from all models used in this study.

Despite substantial advances in scaling test-time compute, an ongoing debate in the community is how it should be scaled up to enable continued and efficient improvements with scaling. There are largely two approaches: first, distilling successful search or thinking traces; and second, using verification (e.g., 0/1 outcome rewards, reward models, or verifiers) to guide reinforcement learning (RL) and search algorithms. In this paper, we prove that finetuning LLMs with verifier-based (VB) methods based on RL or search is far superior to verifier-free (VF) approaches based on distilling or cloning search traces, given a fixed amount of compute/data budget. Further, we show that as we scale test-time compute (measured as the output token length) and training data, suboptimality of VF methods scales poorly compared to VB when the base pre-trained LLM presents a heterogeneous distribution over correct solution traces (e.g., different lengths, styles, etc.) and admits a non-sharp distribution over rewards on traces sampled from it. We formalize this condition using anti-concentration [Erdos, 1945]. This implies a stronger result that VB methods scale better asymptotically, with the performance gap between VB and VF methods widening as test-time budget grows. We corroborate our theory empirically on both didactic and math reasoning problems with 3/8/32B-sized pre-trained LLMs, where we find verification is crucial for scaling test-time compute.

Large Language Model training with 8-bit floating point (FP8) formats promises significant efficiency improvements, but reduced numerical precision makes training challenging. It is currently possible to train in FP8 only if one is willing to tune various hyperparameters, reduce model scale, or accept the overhead of computing dynamic scale factors. We demonstrate simple, scalable FP8 training that requires no dynamic scaling factors or special hyperparameters, even at large model sizes. Our method, munit Scaling (muS), also enables simple hyperparameter transfer across model widths, matched numerics across training and inference, and other desirable properties. munit Scaling is straightforward to implement, consisting of a set of minimal interventions based on a first-principles analysis of common transformer operations. We validate our method by training models from 1B to 13B parameters, performing all hidden linear layer computations in FP8. We achieve quality equal to higher precision baselines while also training up to 33% faster.

Many studies on scaling laws consider basic factors such as model size, model shape, dataset size, and compute power. These factors are easily tunable and represent the fundamental elements of any machine learning setup. But researchers have also employed more complex factors to estimate the test error and generalization performance with high predictability. These factors are generally specific to the domain or application. For example, feature diversity was primarily used for promoting syn-to-real transfer by Chen et al. (2021). With numerous scaling factors defined in previous works, it would be interesting to investigate how these factors may affect overall generalization performance in the context of self-supervised learning with CNN models. How do individual factors promote generalization, which includes varying depth, width, or the number of training epochs with early stopping? For example, does higher feature diversity result in higher accuracy held in complex settings other than a syn-to-real transfer? How do these factors depend on each other? We found that the last layer is the most diversified throughout the training. However, while the model's test error decreases with increasing epochs, its diversity drops. We also discovered that diversity is directly related to model width.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Low-precision training is considered an effective strategy for reducing both training and downstream inference costs. Previous scaling laws for precision mainly focus on integer quantization, which pay less attention to the constituents in floating-point quantization and thus cannot well fit the LLM losses in this scenario. In contrast, while floating-point quantization training is more commonly implemented in production, the research on it has been relatively superficial. In this paper, we thoroughly explore the effects of floating-point quantization targets, exponent bits, mantissa bits, and the calculation granularity of the scaling factor in floating-point quantization training performance of LLM models. While presenting an accurate floating-point quantization unified scaling law, we also provide valuable suggestions for the community: (1) Exponent bits contribute slightly more to the model performance than mantissa bits. We provide the optimal exponent-mantissa bit ratio for different bit numbers, which is available for future reference by hardware manufacturers; (2) We discover the formation of the critical data size in low-precision LLM training. Too much training data exceeding the critical data size will inversely bring in degradation of LLM performance; (3) The optimal floating-point quantization precision is directly proportional to the computational power, but within a wide computational power range, we estimate that the best cost-performance precision lies between 4-8 bits.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

In an increasing number of domains it has been demonstrated that deep learning models can be trained using relatively large batch sizes without sacrificing data efficiency. However the limits of this massive data parallelism seem to differ from domain to domain, ranging from batches of tens of thousands in ImageNet to batches of millions in RL agents that play the game Dota 2. To our knowledge there is limited conceptual understanding of why these limits to batch size differ or how we might choose the correct batch size in a new domain. In this paper, we demonstrate that a simple and easy-to-measure statistic called the gradient noise scale predicts the largest useful batch size across many domains and applications, including a number of supervised learning datasets (MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-10, ImageNet, Billion Word), reinforcement learning domains (Atari and Dota), and even generative model training (autoencoders on SVHN). We find that the noise scale increases as the loss decreases over a training run and depends on the model size primarily through improved model performance. Our empirically-motivated theory also describes the tradeoff between compute-efficiency and time-efficiency, and provides a rough model of the benefits of adaptive batch-size training.

Large Transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance across many tasks. Most open-source libraries on scaling Transformers focus on improving training or inference with better parallelization. In this work, we present TorchScale, an open-source toolkit that allows researchers and developers to scale up Transformers efficiently and effectively. TorchScale has the implementation of several modeling techniques, which can improve modeling generality and capability, as well as training stability and efficiency. Experimental results on language modeling and neural machine translation demonstrate that TorchScale can successfully scale Transformers to different sizes without tears. The library is available at https://aka.ms/torchscale.

Large language models (LLMs) struggle with multi-step reasoning, where inference-time scaling has emerged as a promising strategy for performance improvement. Verifier-guided search outperforms repeated sampling when sample size is limited by selecting and prioritizing valid reasoning paths. However, we identify a critical limitation: scaling flaws, prevalent across different models (Mistral 7B and DeepSeekMath 7B), benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH), and verifiers (outcome value models and process reward models). As sample size increases, verifier-guided search exhibits diminishing advantages and eventually underperforms repeated sampling. Our analysis attributes this to verifier failures, where imperfect verifiers misrank candidates and erroneously prune all valid paths. These issues are further exacerbated in challenging and out-of-distribution problems, restricting search effectiveness. To mitigate verifier failures, we explore reducing reliance on verifiers and conduct preliminary investigations using two simple methods. Our findings reveal fundamental limitations in verifier-guided search and suggest future directions.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

We propose ScaledGD(\lambda), a preconditioned gradient descent method to tackle the low-rank matrix sensing problem when the true rank is unknown, and when the matrix is possibly ill-conditioned. Using overparametrized factor representations, ScaledGD(\lambda) starts from a small random initialization, and proceeds by gradient descent with a specific form of damped preconditioning to combat bad curvatures induced by overparameterization and ill-conditioning. At the expense of light computational overhead incurred by preconditioners, ScaledGD(\lambda) is remarkably robust to ill-conditioning compared to vanilla gradient descent (GD) even with overprameterization. Specifically, we show that, under the Gaussian design, ScaledGD(\lambda) converges to the true low-rank matrix at a constant linear rate after a small number of iterations that scales only logarithmically with respect to the condition number and the problem dimension. This significantly improves over the convergence rate of vanilla GD which suffers from a polynomial dependency on the condition number. Our work provides evidence on the power of preconditioning in accelerating the convergence without hurting generalization in overparameterized learning.

Recent hardware developments have dramatically increased the scale of data parallelism available for neural network training. Among the simplest ways to harness next-generation hardware is to increase the batch size in standard mini-batch neural network training algorithms. In this work, we aim to experimentally characterize the effects of increasing the batch size on training time, as measured by the number of steps necessary to reach a goal out-of-sample error. We study how this relationship varies with the training algorithm, model, and data set, and find extremely large variation between workloads. Along the way, we show that disagreements in the literature on how batch size affects model quality can largely be explained by differences in metaparameter tuning and compute budgets at different batch sizes. We find no evidence that larger batch sizes degrade out-of-sample performance. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results on efforts to train neural networks much faster in the future. Our experimental data is publicly available as a database of 71,638,836 loss measurements taken over the course of training for 168,160 individual models across 35 workloads.

While Large Language Models require more and more data to train and scale, rather than looking for any data to acquire, we should consider what types of tasks are more likely to benefit from data scaling. We should be intentional in our data acquisition. We argue that the topology of data itself informs which tasks to prioritize in data scaling, and shapes the development of the next generation of compute paradigms for tasks where data scaling is inefficient, or even insufficient.

Pretraining large language models (LLMs) is resource-intensive, often requiring months of training time even with high-end GPU clusters. There are two approaches of mitigating such computational demands: reusing smaller models to train larger ones (upcycling), and training computationally efficient models like mixture-of-experts (MoE). In this paper, we study the upcycling of LLMs to MoE models, of which the scaling behavior remains underexplored. Through extensive experiments, we identify empirical scaling laws that describe how performance depends on dataset size and model configuration. Particularly, we show that, while scaling these factors improves performance, there is a novel interaction term between the dense and upcycled training dataset that limits the efficiency of upcycling at large computational budgets. Based on these findings, we provide guidance to scale upcycling, and establish conditions under which upcycling outperforms from-scratch trainings within budget constraints.

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable advances in recent years, with scaling laws playing a critical role in this rapid progress. In this paper, we empirically investigate how a critical hyper-parameter, i.e., the global batch size, influences the LLM training prdocess. We begin by training language models ranging from 125 million to 2.6 billion parameters, using up to 300 billion high-quality tokens. Through these experiments, we establish a basic scaling law on model size and training data amount. We then examine how varying batch sizes and learning rates affect the convergence and generalization of these models. Our analysis yields batch size scaling laws under two different cases: with a fixed compute budget, and with a fixed amount of training data. Extrapolation experiments on models of increasing sizes validate our predicted laws, which provides guidance for optimizing LLM training strategies under specific resource constraints.

In this paper, we introduce the Curse of Depth, a concept that highlights, explains, and addresses the recent observation in modern Large Language Models(LLMs) where nearly half of the layers are less effective than expected. We first confirm the wide existence of this phenomenon across the most popular families of LLMs such as Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, and Qwen. Our analysis, theoretically and empirically, identifies that the underlying reason for the ineffectiveness of deep layers in LLMs is the widespread usage of Pre-Layer Normalization (Pre-LN). While Pre-LN stabilizes the training of Transformer LLMs, its output variance exponentially grows with the model depth, which undesirably causes the derivative of the deep Transformer blocks to be an identity matrix, and therefore barely contributes to the training. To resolve this training pitfall, we propose LayerNorm Scaling, which scales the variance of output of the layer normalization inversely by the square root of its depth. This simple modification mitigates the output variance explosion of deeper Transformer layers, improving their contribution. Our experimental results, spanning model sizes from 130M to 1B, demonstrate that LayerNorm Scaling significantly enhances LLM pre-training performance compared to Pre-LN. Moreover, this improvement seamlessly carries over to supervised fine-tuning. All these gains can be attributed to the fact that LayerNorm Scaling enables deeper layers to contribute more effectively during training.

The population loss of trained deep neural networks often follows precise power-law scaling relations with either the size of the training dataset or the number of parameters in the network. We propose a theory that explains the origins of and connects these scaling laws. We identify variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behavior for both dataset and model size, for a total of four scaling regimes. The variance-limited scaling follows simply from the existence of a well-behaved infinite data or infinite width limit, while the resolution-limited regime can be explained by positing that models are effectively resolving a smooth data manifold. In the large width limit, this can be equivalently obtained from the spectrum of certain kernels, and we present evidence that large width and large dataset resolution-limited scaling exponents are related by a duality. We exhibit all four scaling regimes in the controlled setting of large random feature and pretrained models and test the predictions empirically on a range of standard architectures and datasets. We also observe several empirical relationships between datasets and scaling exponents under modifications of task and architecture aspect ratio. Our work provides a taxonomy for classifying different scaling regimes, underscores that there can be different mechanisms driving improvements in loss, and lends insight into the microscopic origins of and relationships between scaling exponents.

While scaling training compute has led to remarkable improvements in large language models (LLMs), scaling inference compute has not yet yielded analogous gains. We hypothesize that a core missing component is a lack of diverse LLM outputs, leading to inefficient search due to models repeatedly sampling highly similar, yet incorrect generations. We empirically demonstrate that this lack of diversity can be mitigated by searching over candidate plans for solving a problem in natural language. Based on this insight, we propose PLANSEARCH, a novel search algorithm which shows strong results across HumanEval+, MBPP+, and LiveCodeBench (a contamination-free benchmark for competitive coding). PLANSEARCH generates a diverse set of observations about the problem and then uses these observations to construct plans for solving the problem. By searching over plans in natural language rather than directly over code solutions, PLANSEARCH explores a significantly more diverse range of potential solutions compared to baseline search methods. Using PLANSEARCH on top of Claude 3.5 Sonnet achieves a state-of-the-art pass@200 of 77.0% on LiveCodeBench, outperforming both the best score achieved without search (pass@1 = 41.4%) and using standard repeated sampling (pass@200 = 60.6%). Finally, we show that, across all models, search algorithms, and benchmarks analyzed, we can accurately predict performance gains due to search as a direct function of the diversity over generated ideas.

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the inefficiencies of their upscaling mechanisms. This limitation poses significant challenges in adapting these models to increasingly more complex real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose an effective network architecture based purely on stacked factorization machines, and a synergistic upscaling strategy, collectively dubbed Wukong, to establish a scaling law in the domain of recommendation. Wukong's unique design makes it possible to capture diverse, any-order of interactions simply through taller and wider layers. We conducted extensive evaluations on six public datasets, and our results demonstrate that Wukong consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models quality-wise. Further, we assessed Wukong's scalability on an internal, large-scale dataset. The results show that Wukong retains its superiority in quality over state-of-the-art models, while holding the scaling law across two orders of magnitude in model complexity, extending beyond 100 Gflop or equivalently up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale of total training compute, where prior arts fall short.

Quantization effectively reduces the serving costs of Large Language Models (LLMs) by speeding up data movement through compressed parameters and enabling faster operations via integer arithmetic. However, activating integer arithmetic requires quantizing both weights and activations, which poses challenges due to the significant outliers in LLMs that increase quantization error. In this work, we investigate these outliers with an emphasis on their effect on layer-wise quantization error, then examine how smoothing and rotation transform the observed values. Our primary contributions include introducing a new metric to measure and visualize quantization difficulty based on channel magnitudes, as well as proposing a hybrid approach that applies channel-wise scaling before rotation, supported by a mathematical formulation of its benefits.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are finetuned for machine translation tasks. Specifically, we investigate how the choice of the pretraining data and its size affect downstream performance (translation quality) as judged by two metrics: downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score. Our experiments indicate that the size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between the pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior. With sufficient alignment, both downstream cross-entropy and BLEU score improve monotonically with more pretraining data. In such cases, we show that it is possible to predict the downstream BLEU score with good accuracy using a log-law. However, there are also cases where moderate misalignment causes the BLEU score to fluctuate or get worse with more pretraining, whereas downstream cross-entropy monotonically improves. By analyzing these observations, we provide new practical insights for choosing appropriate pretraining data.

Large language model pre-training has become increasingly expensive, with most practitioners relying on scaling laws to allocate compute budgets for model size and training tokens, commonly referred to as Compute-Optimal or Chinchilla Optimal. In this paper, we hypothesize a new scaling law that suggests model performance depends mostly on the amount of compute spent for transformer-based models, independent of the specific allocation to model size and dataset size. Using this unified scaling law, we predict that (a) for inference efficiency, training should prioritize smaller model sizes and larger training datasets, and (b) assuming the exhaustion of available web datasets, scaling the model size might be the only way to further improve model performance.

We identify label errors in the test sets of 10 of the most commonly-used computer vision, natural language, and audio datasets, and subsequently study the potential for these label errors to affect benchmark results. Errors in test sets are numerous and widespread: we estimate an average of at least 3.3% errors across the 10 datasets, where for example label errors comprise at least 6% of the ImageNet validation set. Putative label errors are identified using confident learning algorithms and then human-validated via crowdsourcing (51% of the algorithmically-flagged candidates are indeed erroneously labeled, on average across the datasets). Traditionally, machine learning practitioners choose which model to deploy based on test accuracy - our findings advise caution here, proposing that judging models over correctly labeled test sets may be more useful, especially for noisy real-world datasets. Surprisingly, we find that lower capacity models may be practically more useful than higher capacity models in real-world datasets with high proportions of erroneously labeled data. For example, on ImageNet with corrected labels: ResNet-18 outperforms ResNet-50 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 6%. On CIFAR-10 with corrected labels: VGG-11 outperforms VGG-19 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 5%. Test set errors across the 10 datasets can be viewed at https://labelerrors.com and all label errors can be reproduced by https://github.com/cleanlab/label-errors.

It is commonly believed that scaling language models should commit a significant space or time cost, by increasing the parameters (parameter scaling) or output tokens (inference-time scaling). We introduce the third and more inference-efficient scaling paradigm: increasing the model's parallel computation during both training and inference time. We apply P diverse and learnable transformations to the input, execute forward passes of the model in parallel, and dynamically aggregate the P outputs. This method, namely parallel scaling (ParScale), scales parallel computation by reusing existing parameters and can be applied to any model structure, optimization procedure, data, or task. We theoretically propose a new scaling law and validate it through large-scale pre-training, which shows that a model with P parallel streams is similar to scaling the parameters by O(log P) while showing superior inference efficiency. For example, ParScale can use up to 22times less memory increase and 6times less latency increase compared to parameter scaling that achieves the same performance improvement. It can also recycle an off-the-shelf pre-trained model into a parallelly scaled one by post-training on a small amount of tokens, further reducing the training budget. The new scaling law we discovered potentially facilitates the deployment of more powerful models in low-resource scenarios, and provides an alternative perspective for the role of computation in machine learning.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

Instruction tuning is critical for adapting large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks, and recent studies have demonstrated that small amounts of human-curated data can outperform larger datasets, challenging traditional data scaling laws. While LLM-based data quality rating systems offer a cost-effective alternative to human annotation, they often suffer from inaccuracies and biases, even in powerful models like GPT-4. In this work, we introduce DS2, a Diversity-aware Score curation method for Data Selection. By systematically modeling error patterns through a score transition matrix, DS2 corrects LLM-based scores and promotes diversity in the selected data samples. Our approach shows that a curated subset (just 3.3% of the original dataset) outperforms full-scale datasets (300k samples) across various machine-alignment benchmarks, and matches or surpasses human-aligned datasets such as LIMA with the same sample size (1k samples). These findings challenge conventional data scaling assumptions, highlighting that redundant, low-quality samples can degrade performance and reaffirming that "more can be less."

A common way to speed up training of large convolutional networks is to add computational units. Training is then performed using data-parallel synchronous Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with mini-batch divided between computational units. With an increase in the number of nodes, the batch size grows. But training with large batch size often results in the lower model accuracy. We argue that the current recipe for large batch training (linear learning rate scaling with warm-up) is not general enough and training may diverge. To overcome this optimization difficulties we propose a new training algorithm based on Layer-wise Adaptive Rate Scaling (LARS). Using LARS, we scaled Alexnet up to a batch size of 8K, and Resnet-50 to a batch size of 32K without loss in accuracy.

One of the main challenges in optimal scaling of large language models (LLMs) is the prohibitive cost of hyperparameter tuning, particularly learning rate eta and batch size B. While techniques like muP (Yang et al., 2022) provide scaling rules for optimal eta transfer in the infinite model size limit, the optimal scaling behavior in the infinite data size limit remains unknown. We fill in this gap by observing for the first time an intricate dependence of optimal eta scaling on the pretraining token budget T, B and its relation to the critical batch size B_crit, which we measure to evolve as B_crit propto T. Furthermore, we show that the optimal batch size is positively correlated with B_crit: keeping it fixed becomes suboptimal over time even if learning rate is scaled optimally. Surprisingly, our results demonstrate that the observed optimal eta and B dynamics are preserved with muP model scaling, challenging the conventional view of B_crit dependence solely on loss value. Complementing optimality, we examine the sensitivity of loss to changes in learning rate, where we find the sensitivity to decrease with increase of T and to remain constant with muP model scaling. We hope our results make the first step towards a unified picture of the joint optimal data and model scaling.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Machine learning (ML) models are only as good as the data they are trained on. But recent studies have found datasets widely used to train and evaluate ML models, e.g. ImageNet, to have pervasive labeling errors. Erroneous labels on the train set hurt ML models' ability to generalize, and they impact evaluation and model selection using the test set. Consequently, learning in the presence of labeling errors is an active area of research, yet this field lacks a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate these methods. Most of these methods are evaluated on a few computer vision datasets with significant variance in the experimental protocols. With such a large pool of methods and inconsistent evaluation, it is also unclear how ML practitioners can choose the right models to assess label quality in their data. To this end, we propose a benchmarking environment AQuA to rigorously evaluate methods that enable machine learning in the presence of label noise. We also introduce a design space to delineate concrete design choices of label error detection models. We hope that our proposed design space and benchmark enable practitioners to choose the right tools to improve their label quality and that our benchmark enables objective and rigorous evaluation of machine learning tools facing mislabeled data.

Scaling laws have shaped recent advances in machine learning by enabling predictable scaling of model performance based on model size, computation, and data volume. Concurrently, the rise in computational cost for AI has motivated model compression techniques, notably quantization and sparsification, which have emerged to mitigate the steep computational demands associated with large-scale training and inference. This paper investigates the interplay between scaling laws and compression formats, exploring whether a unified scaling framework can accurately predict model performance when training occurs over various compressed representations, such as sparse, scalar-quantized, sparse-quantized or even vector-quantized formats. Our key contributions include validating a general scaling law formulation and showing that it is applicable both individually but also composably across compression types. Based on this, our main finding is demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that there exists a simple "capacity" metric -- based on the representation's ability to fit random Gaussian data -- which can robustly predict parameter efficiency across multiple compressed representations. On the practical side, we extend our formulation to directly compare the accuracy potential of different compressed formats, and to derive better algorithms for training over sparse-quantized formats.

Scaling laws with respect to the amount of training data and the number of parameters allow us to predict the cost-benefit trade-offs of pretraining language models (LMs) in different configurations. In this paper, we consider another dimension of scaling: the amount of data available at inference time. Specifically, we find that increasing the size of the datastore used by a retrieval-based LM monotonically improves language modeling and several downstream tasks without obvious saturation, such that a smaller model augmented with a large datastore outperforms a larger LM-only model on knowledge-intensive tasks. By plotting compute-optimal scaling curves with varied datastore, model, and pretraining data sizes, we show that using larger datastores can significantly improve model performance for the same training compute budget. We carry out our study by constructing a 1.4 trillion-token datastore named MassiveDS, which is the largest and the most diverse open-sourced datastore for retrieval-based LMs to date, and designing an efficient pipeline for studying datastore scaling in a computationally accessible manner. Finally, we analyze the effect of improving the retriever, datastore quality filtering, and other design choices on our observed scaling trends. Overall, our results show that datastore size should be considered as an integral part of LM efficiency and performance trade-offs. To facilitate future research, we open-source our datastore and code at https://github.com/RulinShao/retrieval-scaling.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Scaling laws predict that the performance of large language models improves with increasing model size and data size. In practice, pre-training has been relying on massive web crawls, using almost all data sources publicly available on the internet so far. However, this pool of natural data does not grow at the same rate as the compute supply. Furthermore, the availability of high-quality texts is even more limited: data filtering pipelines often remove up to 99% of the initial web scrapes to achieve state-of-the-art. To address the "data wall" of pre-training scaling, our work explores ways to transform and recycle data discarded in existing filtering processes. We propose REWIRE, REcycling the Web with guIded REwrite, a method to enrich low-quality documents so that they could become useful for training. This in turn allows us to increase the representation of synthetic data in the final pre-training set. Experiments at 1B, 3B and 7B scales of the DCLM benchmark show that mixing high-quality raw texts and our rewritten texts lead to 1.0, 1.3 and 2.5 percentage points improvement respectively across 22 diverse tasks, compared to training on only filtered web data. Training on the raw-synthetic data mix is also more effective than having access to 2x web data. Through further analysis, we demonstrate that about 82% of the mixed in texts come from transforming lower-quality documents that would otherwise be discarded. REWIRE also outperforms related approaches of generating synthetic data, including Wikipedia-style paraphrasing, question-answer synthesizing and knowledge extraction. These results suggest that recycling web texts holds the potential for being a simple and effective approach for scaling pre-training data.

Machine learning models are widely used, but can also often be wrong. Users would benefit from a reliable indication of whether a given output from a given model should be trusted, so a rational decision can be made whether to use the output or not. For example, outputs can be associated with a confidence measure; if this confidence measure is strongly associated with likelihood of correctness, then the model is said to be well-calibrated. A well-calibrated confidence measure can serve as a basis for rational, graduated decision-making on how much review and care is needed when using generated code. Calibration has so far been studied in mostly non-generative (e.g. classification) settings, especially in software engineering. However, generated code can quite often be wrong: Given generated code, developers must decide whether to use directly, use after varying intensity of careful review, or discard model-generated code. Thus, calibration is vital in generative settings. We make several contributions. We develop a framework for evaluating the calibration of code-generating models. We consider several tasks, correctness criteria, datasets, and approaches, and find that, by and large, generative code models we test are not well-calibrated out of the box. We then show how calibration can be improved using standard methods, such as Platt scaling. Since Platt scaling relies on the prior availability of correctness data, we evaluate the applicability and generalizability of Platt scaling in software engineering, discuss settings where it has good potential for practical use, and settings where it does not. Our contributions will lead to better-calibrated decision-making in the current use of code generated by language models, and offers a framework for future research to further improve calibration methods for generative models in software engineering.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Recent research has highlighted the importance of dataset size in scaling language models. However, large language models (LLMs) are notoriously token-hungry during pre-training, and high-quality text data on the web is approaching its scaling limit for LLMs. To further enhance LLMs, a straightforward approach is to repeat the pre-training data for additional epochs. In this study, we empirically investigate three key aspects under this approach. First, we explore the consequences of repeating pre-training data, revealing that the model is susceptible to overfitting, leading to multi-epoch degradation. Second, we examine the key factors contributing to multi-epoch degradation, finding that significant factors include dataset size, model parameters, and training objectives, while less influential factors consist of dataset quality and model FLOPs. Finally, we explore whether widely used regularization can alleviate multi-epoch degradation. Most regularization techniques do not yield significant improvements, except for dropout, which demonstrates remarkable effectiveness but requires careful tuning when scaling up the model size. Additionally, we discover that leveraging mixture-of-experts (MoE) enables cost-effective and efficient hyper-parameter tuning for computationally intensive dense LLMs with comparable trainable parameters, potentially impacting efficient LLM development on a broader scale.

We investigate the rate at which algorithms for pre-training language models have improved since the advent of deep learning. Using a dataset of over 200 language model evaluations on Wikitext and Penn Treebank spanning 2012-2023, we find that the compute required to reach a set performance threshold has halved approximately every 8 months, with a 95% confidence interval of around 5 to 14 months, substantially faster than hardware gains per Moore's Law. We estimate augmented scaling laws, which enable us to quantify algorithmic progress and determine the relative contributions of scaling models versus innovations in training algorithms. Despite the rapid pace of algorithmic progress and the development of new architectures such as the transformer, our analysis reveals that the increase in compute made an even larger contribution to overall performance improvements over this time period. Though limited by noisy benchmark data, our analysis quantifies the rapid progress in language modeling, shedding light on the relative contributions from compute and algorithms.

This paper proposes one of the first clinical applications of multimodal large language models (LLMs) as an assistant for radiologists to check errors in their reports. We created an evaluation dataset from two real-world radiology datasets (MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray), with 1,000 subsampled reports each. A subset of original reports was modified to contain synthetic errors by introducing various type of mistakes. The evaluation contained two difficulty levels: SIMPLE for binary error-checking and COMPLEX for identifying error types. LLaVA (Large Language and Visual Assistant) variant models, including our instruction-tuned model, were used for the evaluation. Additionally, a domain expert evaluation was conducted on a small test set. At the SIMPLE level, the LLaVA v1.5 model outperformed other publicly available models. Instruction tuning significantly enhanced performance by 47.4% and 25.4% on MIMIC-CXR and IU-Xray data, respectively. The model also surpassed the domain experts accuracy in the MIMIC-CXR dataset by 1.67%. Notably, among the subsets (N=21) of the test set where a clinician did not achieve the correct conclusion, the LLaVA ensemble mode correctly identified 71.4% of these cases. This study marks a promising step toward utilizing multi-modal LLMs to enhance diagnostic accuracy in radiology. The ensemble model demonstrated comparable performance to clinicians, even capturing errors overlooked by humans. Nevertheless, future work is needed to improve the model ability to identify the types of inconsistency.

Training state-of-the-art neural networks requires a high cost in terms of compute and time. Model scale is recognized to be a critical factor to achieve and improve the state-of-the-art. Increasing the scale of a neural network normally requires restarting from scratch by randomly initializing all the parameters of the model, as this implies a change of architecture's parameters that does not allow for a straightforward transfer of knowledge from smaller size models. In this work, we propose six composable transformations to incrementally increase the size of transformer-based neural networks while preserving functionality, allowing to expand the capacity of the model as needed. We provide proof of exact function preservation under minimal initialization constraints for each transformation. The proposed methods may enable efficient training pipelines for larger and more powerful models by progressively expanding the architecture throughout training.

We present the design, implementation and engineering experience in building and deploying MegaScale, a production system for training large language models (LLMs) at the scale of more than 10,000 GPUs. Training LLMs at this scale brings unprecedented challenges to training efficiency and stability. We take a full-stack approach that co-designs the algorithmic and system components across model block and optimizer design, computation and communication overlapping, operator optimization, data pipeline, and network performance tuning. Maintaining high efficiency throughout the training process (i.e., stability) is an important consideration in production given the long extent of LLM training jobs. Many hard stability issues only emerge at large scale, and in-depth observability is the key to address them. We develop a set of diagnosis tools to monitor system components and events deep in the stack, identify root causes, and derive effective techniques to achieve fault tolerance and mitigate stragglers. MegaScale achieves 55.2% Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU) when training a 175B LLM model on 12,288 GPUs, improving the MFU by 1.34x compared to Megatron-LM. We share our operational experience in identifying and fixing failures and stragglers. We hope by articulating the problems and sharing our experience from a systems perspective, this work can inspire future LLM systems research.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

We present a combined scaling method - named BASIC - that achieves 85.7% top-1 accuracy on the ImageNet ILSVRC-2012 validation set without learning from any labeled ImageNet example. This accuracy surpasses best published similar models - CLIP and ALIGN - by 9.3%. Our BASIC model also shows significant improvements in robustness benchmarks. For instance, on 5 test sets with natural distribution shifts such as ImageNet-{A,R,V2,Sketch} and ObjectNet, our model achieves 84.3% top-1 average accuracy, only a small drop from its original ImageNet accuracy. To achieve these results, we scale up the contrastive learning framework of CLIP and ALIGN in three dimensions: data size, model size, and batch size. Our dataset has 6.6B noisy image-text pairs, which is 4x larger than ALIGN, and 16x larger than CLIP. Our largest model has 3B weights, which is 3.75x larger in parameters and 8x larger in FLOPs than ALIGN and CLIP. Finally, our batch size is 65536 which is 2x more than CLIP and 4x more than ALIGN. We encountered two main challenges with the scaling rules of BASIC. First, the main challenge with implementing the combined scaling rules of BASIC is the limited memory of accelerators, such as GPUs and TPUs. To overcome the memory limit, we propose two simple methods which make use of gradient checkpointing and model parallelism. Second, while increasing the dataset size and the model size has been the defacto method to improve the performance of deep learning models like BASIC, the effect of a large contrastive batch size on such contrastive-trained image-text models is not well-understood. To shed light on the benefits of large contrastive batch sizes, we develop a theoretical framework which shows that larger contrastive batch sizes lead to smaller generalization gaps for image-text models such as BASIC.

Scaling of deep neural networks, especially Transformers, is pivotal for their surging performance and has further led to the emergence of sophisticated reasoning capabilities in foundation models. Such scaling generally requires training large models from scratch with random initialization, failing to leverage the knowledge acquired by their smaller counterparts, which are already resource-intensive to obtain. To tackle this inefficiency, we present LosslEss MOdel ExpansioN (LEMON), a recipe to initialize scaled models using the weights of their smaller but pre-trained counterparts. This is followed by model training with an optimized learning rate scheduler tailored explicitly for the scaled models, substantially reducing the training time compared to training from scratch. Notably, LEMON is versatile, ensuring compatibility with various network structures, including models like Vision Transformers and BERT. Our empirical results demonstrate that LEMON reduces computational costs by 56.7% for Vision Transformers and 33.2% for BERT when compared to training from scratch.

Large language models are trained on massive scrapes of the web, which are often unstructured, noisy, and poorly phrased. Current scaling laws show that learning from such data requires an abundance of both compute and data, which grows with the size of the model being trained. This is infeasible both because of the large compute costs and duration associated with pre-training, and the impending scarcity of high-quality data on the web. In this work, we propose Web Rephrase Augmented Pre-training (WRAP) that uses an off-the-shelf instruction-tuned model prompted to paraphrase documents on the web in specific styles such as "like Wikipedia" or in "question-answer format" to jointly pre-train LLMs on real and synthetic rephrases. First, we show that using WRAP on the C4 dataset, which is naturally noisy, speeds up pre-training by sim3x. At the same pre-training compute budget, it improves perplexity by more than 10% on average across different subsets of the Pile, and improves zero-shot question answer accuracy across 13 tasks by more than 2%. Second, we investigate the impact of the re-phrasing style on the performance of the model, offering insights into how the composition of the training data can impact the performance of LLMs in OOD settings. Our gains are attributed to the fact that re-phrased synthetic data has higher utility than just real data because it (i) incorporates style diversity that closely reflects downstream evaluation style, and (ii) has higher 'quality' than web-scraped data.

With Large Language Models (LLMs) being widely used across various tasks, detecting errors in their responses is increasingly crucial. However, little research has been conducted on error detection of LLM responses. Collecting error annotations on LLM responses is challenging due to the subjective nature of many NLP tasks, and thus previous research focuses on tasks of little practical value (e.g., word sorting) or limited error types (e.g., faithfulness in summarization). This work introduces ReaLMistake, the first error detection benchmark consisting of objective, realistic, and diverse errors made by LLMs. ReaLMistake contains three challenging and meaningful tasks that introduce objectively assessable errors in four categories (reasoning correctness, instruction-following, context-faithfulness, and parameterized knowledge), eliciting naturally observed and diverse errors in responses of GPT-4 and Llama 2 70B annotated by experts. We use ReaLMistake to evaluate error detectors based on 12 LLMs. Our findings show: 1) Top LLMs like GPT-4 and Claude 3 detect errors made by LLMs at very low recall, and all LLM-based error detectors perform much worse than humans. 2) Explanations by LLM-based error detectors lack reliability. 3) LLMs-based error detection is sensitive to small changes in prompts but remains challenging to improve. 4) Popular approaches to improving LLMs, including self-consistency and majority vote, do not improve the error detection performance. Our benchmark and code are provided at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/ReaLMistake.

Recent trends in language modeling have focused on increasing performance through scaling, and have resulted in an environment where training language models is out of reach for most researchers and practitioners. While most in the community are asking how to push the limits of extreme computation, we ask the opposite question: How far can we get with a single GPU in just one day? We investigate the downstream performance achievable with a transformer-based language model trained completely from scratch with masked language modeling for a single day on a single consumer GPU. Aside from re-analyzing nearly all components of the pretraining pipeline for this scenario and providing a modified pipeline with performance close to BERT, we investigate why scaling down is hard, and which modifications actually improve performance in this scenario. We provide evidence that even in this constrained setting, performance closely follows scaling laws observed in large-compute settings. Through the lens of scaling laws, we categorize a range of recent improvements to training and architecture and discuss their merit and practical applicability (or lack thereof) for the limited compute setting.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often described as being instances of foundation models - that is, models that transfer strongly across various tasks and conditions in few-show or zero-shot manner, while exhibiting scaling laws that predict function improvement when increasing the pre-training scale. These claims of excelling in different functions and tasks rely on measurements taken across various sets of standardized benchmarks showing high scores for such models. We demonstrate here a dramatic breakdown of function and reasoning capabilities of state-of-the-art models trained at the largest available scales which claim strong function, using a simple, short, conventional common sense problem formulated in concise natural language, easily solvable by humans. The breakdown is dramatic, as models also express strong overconfidence in their wrong solutions, while providing often non-sensical "reasoning"-like explanations akin to confabulations to justify and backup the validity of their clearly failed responses, making them sound plausible. Various standard interventions in an attempt to get the right solution, like various type of enhanced prompting, or urging the models to reconsider the wrong solutions again by multi step re-evaluation, fail. We take these initial observations to the scientific and technological community to stimulate urgent re-assessment of the claimed capabilities of current generation of LLMs, Such re-assessment also requires common action to create standardized benchmarks that would allow proper detection of such basic reasoning deficits that obviously manage to remain undiscovered by current state-of-the-art evaluation procedures and benchmarks. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/AIW

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

This work presents Switti, a scale-wise transformer for text-to-image generation. Starting from existing next-scale prediction AR models, we first explore them for T2I generation and propose architectural modifications to improve their convergence and overall performance. We then observe that self-attention maps of our pretrained scale-wise AR model exhibit weak dependence on preceding scales. Based on this insight, we propose a non-AR counterpart facilitating {sim}11% faster sampling and lower memory usage while also achieving slightly better generation quality.Furthermore, we reveal that classifier-free guidance at high-resolution scales is often unnecessary and can even degrade performance. %may be not only unnecessary but potentially detrimental. By disabling guidance at these scales, we achieve an additional sampling acceleration of {sim}20% and improve the generation of fine-grained details. Extensive human preference studies and automated evaluations show that Switti outperforms existing T2I AR models and competes with state-of-the-art T2I diffusion models while being up to 7{times} faster.

Numerous deep learning algorithms have been inspired by and understood via the notion of information bottleneck, where unnecessary information is (often implicitly) minimized while task-relevant information is maximized. However, a rigorous argument for justifying why it is desirable to control information bottlenecks has been elusive. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous learning theory for justifying the benefit of information bottleneck in deep learning by mathematically relating information bottleneck to generalization errors. Our theory proves that controlling information bottleneck is one way to control generalization errors in deep learning, although it is not the only or necessary way. We investigate the merit of our new mathematical findings with experiments across a range of architectures and learning settings. In many cases, generalization errors are shown to correlate with the degree of information bottleneck: i.e., the amount of the unnecessary information at hidden layers. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for current and future methods through the lens of information bottleneck. Our new generalization bounds scale with the degree of information bottleneck, unlike the previous bounds that scale with the number of parameters, VC dimension, Rademacher complexity, stability or robustness. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/xu-ji/information-bottleneck

Many intellectual endeavors require mathematical problem solving, but this skill remains beyond the capabilities of computers. To measure this ability in machine learning models, we introduce MATH, a new dataset of 12,500 challenging competition mathematics problems. Each problem in MATH has a full step-by-step solution which can be used to teach models to generate answer derivations and explanations. To facilitate future research and increase accuracy on MATH, we also contribute a large auxiliary pretraining dataset which helps teach models the fundamentals of mathematics. Even though we are able to increase accuracy on MATH, our results show that accuracy remains relatively low, even with enormous Transformer models. Moreover, we find that simply increasing budgets and model parameter counts will be impractical for achieving strong mathematical reasoning if scaling trends continue. While scaling Transformers is automatically solving most other text-based tasks, scaling is not currently solving MATH. To have more traction on mathematical problem solving we will likely need new algorithmic advancements from the broader research community.

Scaling test-time compute is a promising axis for improving LLM capabilities. However, test-time compute can be scaled in a variety of ways, and effectively combining different approaches remains an active area of research. Here, we explore this problem in the context of solving real-world GitHub issues from the SWE-bench dataset. Our system, named CodeMonkeys, allows models to iteratively edit a codebase by jointly generating and running a testing script alongside their draft edit. We sample many of these multi-turn trajectories for every issue to generate a collection of candidate edits. This approach lets us scale "serial" test-time compute by increasing the number of iterations per trajectory and "parallel" test-time compute by increasing the number of trajectories per problem. With parallel scaling, we can amortize up-front costs across multiple downstream samples, allowing us to identify relevant codebase context using the simple method of letting an LLM read every file. In order to select between candidate edits, we combine voting using model-generated tests with a final multi-turn trajectory dedicated to selection. Overall, CodeMonkeys resolves 57.4% of issues from SWE-bench Verified using a budget of approximately 2300 USD. Our selection method can also be used to combine candidates from different sources. Selecting over an ensemble of edits from existing top SWE-bench Verified submissions obtains a score of 66.2% and outperforms the best member of the ensemble on its own. We fully release our code and data at https://scalingintelligence.stanford.edu/pubs/codemonkeys.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

The leakage of benchmark data into the training data has emerged as a significant challenge for evaluating the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we challenge the common assumption that small-scale contamination renders benchmark evaluations invalid. First, we experimentally quantify the magnitude of benchmark overfitting based on scaling along three dimensions: The number of model parameters (up to 1.6B), the number of times an example is seen (up to 144), and the number of training tokens (up to 40B). If model and data follow the Chinchilla scaling laws, minor contamination indeed leads to overfitting. At the same time, even 144 times of contamination can be forgotten if the training data is scaled beyond five times Chinchilla, a regime characteristic of many modern LLMs. Continual pre-training of OLMo-7B corroborates these results. Next, we study the impact of the weight decay parameter on example forgetting, showing that empirical forgetting occurs faster than the cumulative weight decay. This allows us to gauge the degree of example forgetting in large-scale training runs, indicating that many LLMs, including Lllama 3 405B, have forgotten the data seen at the beginning of training.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

Enabling LLMs to improve their outputs by using more test-time computation is a critical step towards building generally self-improving agents that can operate on open-ended natural language. In this paper, we study the scaling of inference-time computation in LLMs, with a focus on answering the question: if an LLM is allowed to use a fixed but non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve its performance on a challenging prompt? Answering this question has implications not only on the achievable performance of LLMs, but also on the future of LLM pretraining and how one should tradeoff inference-time and pre-training compute. Despite its importance, little research attempted to understand the scaling behaviors of various test-time inference methods. Moreover, current work largely provides negative results for a number of these strategies. In this work, we analyze two primary mechanisms to scale test-time computation: (1) searching against dense, process-based verifier reward models; and (2) updating the model's distribution over a response adaptively, given the prompt at test time. We find that in both cases, the effectiveness of different approaches to scaling test-time compute critically varies depending on the difficulty of the prompt. This observation motivates applying a "compute-optimal" scaling strategy, which acts to most effectively allocate test-time compute adaptively per prompt. Using this compute-optimal strategy, we can improve the efficiency of test-time compute scaling by more than 4x compared to a best-of-N baseline. Additionally, in a FLOPs-matched evaluation, we find that on problems where a smaller base model attains somewhat non-trivial success rates, test-time compute can be used to outperform a 14x larger model.

We study the effect of mini-batching on the loss landscape of deep neural networks using spiked, field-dependent random matrix theory. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the extremal values of the batch Hessian are larger than those of the empirical Hessian. We also derive similar results for the Generalised Gauss-Newton matrix approximation of the Hessian. As a consequence of our theorems we derive an analytical expressions for the maximal learning rates as a function of batch size, informing practical training regimens for both stochastic gradient descent (linear scaling) and adaptive algorithms, such as Adam (square root scaling), for smooth, non-convex deep neural networks. Whilst the linear scaling for stochastic gradient descent has been derived under more restrictive conditions, which we generalise, the square root scaling rule for adaptive optimisers is, to our knowledge, completely novel. %For stochastic second-order methods and adaptive methods, we derive that the minimal damping coefficient is proportional to the ratio of the learning rate to batch size. We validate our claims on the VGG/WideResNet architectures on the CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets. Based on our investigations of the sub-sampled Hessian we develop a stochastic Lanczos quadrature based on the fly learning rate and momentum learner, which avoids the need for expensive multiple evaluations for these key hyper-parameters and shows good preliminary results on the Pre-Residual Architecure for CIFAR-100.

Recently, Instruction fine-tuning has risen to prominence as a potential method for enhancing the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on novel tasks. This technique has shown an exceptional ability to boost the performance of moderately sized LLMs, sometimes even reaching performance levels comparable to those of much larger model variants. The focus is on the robustness of instruction-tuned LLMs to seen and unseen tasks. We conducted an exploration of six models including Alpaca, Vicuna, WizardLM, and Traditional Task-oriented Models(Flan-T5-XL/XXL, T0++) using real-world relation extraction datasets as case studies. We carried out a comprehensive evaluation of these instruction-following LLMs which have been tuned based on open-domain instructions and task-oriented instructions. The main discussion is their performance and robustness towards instructions. We have observed that in most cases, the model's performance in dealing with unfamiliar instructions tends to worsen significantly, and the robustness of the model for RE instructions deteriorates compared to QA. Further, we discovered that up until a certain parameter size threshold (3B), the performance of the FLAN-T5 model improves as the parameter count increases. The robustness of different scales of FLAN-T5 models to RE instruction is worse than the robustness to QA instruction.

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) predict model performance based on parameters like size and training data. However, differences in training configurations and data processing across model families lead to significant variations in benchmark performance, making it difficult for a single scaling law to generalize across all LLMs. On the other hand, training family-specific scaling laws requires training models of varying sizes for every family. In this work, we propose Skills Scaling Laws (SSLaws, pronounced as Sloth), a novel scaling law that leverages publicly available benchmark data and assumes LLM performance is driven by low-dimensional latent skills, such as reasoning and instruction following. These latent skills are influenced by computational resources like model size and training tokens but with varying efficiencies across model families. Sloth exploits correlations across benchmarks to provide more accurate and interpretable predictions while alleviating the need to train multiple LLMs per family. We present both theoretical results on parameter identification and empirical evaluations on 12 prominent benchmarks, from Open LLM Leaderboard v1/v2, demonstrating that Sloth predicts LLM performance efficiently and offers insights into scaling behaviors for complex downstream tasks and increased test-time compute.

Structured data sources, such as tables, graphs, and databases, are ubiquitous knowledge sources. Despite the demonstrated capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on plain text, their proficiency in interpreting and utilizing structured data remains limited. Our investigation reveals a notable deficiency in LLMs' ability to process structured data, e.g., ChatGPT lags behind state-of-the-art (SoTA) model by an average of 35%. To augment the Structured Knowledge Grounding (SKG) capabilities in LLMs, we have developed a comprehensive instruction tuning dataset comprising 1.1 million examples. Utilizing this dataset, we train a series of models, referred to as StructLM, based on the Code-LLaMA architecture, ranging from 7B to 34B parameters. Our StructLM series surpasses task-specific models on 14 out of 18 evaluated datasets and establishes new SoTA achievements on 7 SKG tasks. Furthermore, StructLM demonstrates exceptional generalization across 6 novel SKG tasks. Contrary to expectations, we observe that scaling model size offers marginal benefits, with StructLM-34B showing only slight improvements over StructLM-7B. This suggests that structured knowledge grounding is still a challenging task and requires more innovative design to push to a new level.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now integral across various domains and have demonstrated impressive performance. Progress, however, rests on the premise that benchmark scores are both accurate and reproducible. We demonstrate that the reproducibility of LLM performance is fragile: changing system configuration such as evaluation batch size, GPU count, and GPU version can introduce significant difference in the generated responses. This issue is especially pronounced in reasoning models, where minor rounding differences in early tokens can cascade into divergent chains of thought, ultimately affecting accuracy. For instance, under bfloat16 precision with greedy decoding, a reasoning model like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B can exhibit up to 9% variation in accuracy and 9,000 tokens difference in response length due to differences in GPU count, type, and evaluation batch size. We trace the root cause of this variability to the non-associative nature of floating-point arithmetic under limited numerical precision. This work presents the first systematic investigation into how numerical precision affects reproducibility in LLM inference. Through carefully controlled experiments across various hardware, software, and precision settings, we quantify when and how model outputs diverge. Our analysis reveals that floating-point precision -- while critical for reproducibility -- is often neglected in evaluation practices. Inspired by this, we develop a lightweight inference pipeline, dubbed LayerCast, that stores weights in 16-bit precision but performs all computations in FP32, balancing memory efficiency with numerical stability. Code is available at https://github.com/nanomaoli/llm_reproducibility.

Estimating the difficulty of a dataset typically involves comparing state-of-the-art models to humans; the bigger the performance gap, the harder the dataset is said to be. However, this comparison provides little understanding of how difficult each instance in a given distribution is, or what attributes make the dataset difficult for a given model. To address these questions, we frame dataset difficulty -- w.r.t. a model V -- as the lack of V-usable information (Xu et al., 2019), where a lower value indicates a more difficult dataset for V. We further introduce pointwise \mathcal{V-information} (PVI) for measuring the difficulty of individual instances w.r.t. a given distribution. While standard evaluation metrics typically only compare different models for the same dataset, V-usable information and PVI also permit the converse: for a given model V, we can compare different datasets, as well as different instances/slices of the same dataset. Furthermore, our framework allows for the interpretability of different input attributes via transformations of the input, which we use to discover annotation artefacts in widely-used NLP benchmarks.

There remain many open questions pertaining to the scaling behaviour of Transformer architectures. These scaling decisions and findings can be critical, as training runs often come with an associated computational cost which have both financial and/or environmental impact. The goal of this paper is to present scaling insights from pretraining and finetuning Transformers. While Kaplan et al. presents a comprehensive study of the scaling behaviour of Transformer language models, the scope is only on the upstream (pretraining) loss. Therefore, it is still unclear if these set of findings transfer to downstream task within the context of the pretrain-finetune paradigm. The key findings of this paper are as follows: (1) we show that aside from only the model size, model shape matters for downstream fine-tuning, (2) scaling protocols operate differently at different compute regions, (3) widely adopted T5-base and T5-large sizes are Pareto-inefficient. To this end, we present improved scaling protocols whereby our redesigned models achieve similar downstream fine-tuning quality while having 50\% fewer parameters and training 40\% faster compared to the widely adopted T5-base model. We publicly release over 100 pretrained checkpoints of different T5 configurations to facilitate future research and analysis.

With the scale capability of increasing training data, model size, and computational cost, video generation has achieved impressive results in digital creation, enabling users to express creativity across various domains. Recently, researchers in Large Language Models (LLMs) have expanded the scaling to test-time, which can significantly improve LLM performance by using more inference-time computation. Instead of scaling up video foundation models through expensive training costs, we explore the power of Test-Time Scaling (TTS) in video generation, aiming to answer the question: if a video generation model is allowed to use non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve generation quality given a challenging text prompt. In this work, we reinterpret the test-time scaling of video generation as a searching problem to sample better trajectories from Gaussian noise space to the target video distribution. Specifically, we build the search space with test-time verifiers to provide feedback and heuristic algorithms to guide searching process. Given a text prompt, we first explore an intuitive linear search strategy by increasing noise candidates at inference time. As full-step denoising all frames simultaneously requires heavy test-time computation costs, we further design a more efficient TTS method for video generation called Tree-of-Frames (ToF) that adaptively expands and prunes video branches in an autoregressive manner. Extensive experiments on text-conditioned video generation benchmarks demonstrate that increasing test-time compute consistently leads to significant improvements in the quality of videos. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Video-T1

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

We introduce a method that dramatically reduces fine-tuning VRAM requirements and rectifies quantization errors in quantized Large Language Models. First, we develop an extremely memory-efficient fine-tuning (EMEF) method for quantized models using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), and drawing upon it, we construct an error-correcting algorithm designed to minimize errors induced by the quantization process. Our method reduces the memory requirements by up to 5.6 times, which enables fine-tuning a 7 billion parameter Large Language Model (LLM) on consumer laptops. At the same time, we propose a Low-Rank Error Correction (LREC) method that exploits the added LoRA layers to ameliorate the gap between the quantized model and its float point counterpart. Our error correction framework leads to a fully functional INT2 quantized LLM with the capacity to generate coherent English text. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first INT2 Large Language Model that has been able to reach such a performance. The overhead of our method is merely a 1.05 times increase in model size, which translates to an effective precision of INT2.1. Also, our method readily generalizes to other quantization standards, such as INT3, INT4, and INT8, restoring their lost performance, which marks a significant milestone in the field of model quantization. The strategies delineated in this paper hold promising implications for the future development and optimization of quantized models, marking a pivotal shift in the landscape of low-resource machine learning computations.

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

State-of-the-art LLMs are powered by scaling -- scaling model size, dataset size and cluster size. It is economically infeasible to extensively tune hyperparameter for the largest runs. Instead, approximately optimal hyperparameters must be inferred or transferred from smaller experiments. Hyperparameter transfer across model sizes has been studied in Yang et al. However, hyperparameter transfer across dataset size -- or token horizon -- has not been studied yet. To remedy this we conduct a large scale empirical study on how optimal learning rate (LR) depends on token horizon in LLM training. We first demonstrate that the optimal LR changes significantly with token horizon -- longer training necessitates smaller LR. Secondly we demonstrate the the optimal LR follows a scaling law, and that the optimal LR for longer horizons can be accurately estimated from shorter horizons via such scaling laws. We also provide a rule-of-thumb for transferring LR across token horizons with zero overhead over current practices. Lastly we provide evidence that LLama-1 used too high LR, and estimate the performance hit from this. We thus argue that hyperparameter transfer across data size is an important and overlooked component of LLM training.

While many capabilities of language models (LMs) improve with increased training budget, the influence of scale on hallucinations is not yet fully understood. Hallucinations come in many forms, and there is no universally accepted definition. We thus focus on studying only those hallucinations where a correct answer appears verbatim in the training set. To fully control the training data content, we construct a knowledge graph (KG)-based dataset, and use it to train a set of increasingly large LMs. We find that for a fixed dataset, larger and longer-trained LMs hallucinate less. However, hallucinating on leq5% of the training data requires an order of magnitude larger model, and thus an order of magnitude more compute, than Hoffmann et al. (2022) reported was optimal. Given this costliness, we study how hallucination detectors depend on scale. While we see detector size improves performance on fixed LM's outputs, we find an inverse relationship between the scale of the LM and the detectability of its hallucinations.

Most public instruction finetuning datasets are relatively small compared to the closed source datasets used to train industry models. To study questions about finetuning at scale, such as curricula and learning rate cooldown schedules, there is a need for industrial-scale datasets. However, this scale necessitates a data generation process that is almost entirely automated. In this work, we study methods for generating large instruction datasets from a single prompt. With little human oversight, we get LLMs to write diverse sets of instruction examples ranging from simple completion tasks to complex multi-turn dialogs across a variety of subject areas. When finetuning a Llama-3 8B base model, our dataset meets or exceeds both WizardLM and Ultrachat on both knowledge-intensive leaderboard tasks as well as conversational evaluations. We release our dataset, the "generator" prompts that created it, and our finetuned model checkpoints.

This work aims to understand how scaling improves language models, specifically in terms of training dynamics. We find that language models undergo loss deceleration early in training; an abrupt slowdown in the rate of loss improvement, resulting in piecewise linear behaviour of the loss curve in log-log space. Scaling up the model mitigates this transition by (1) decreasing the loss at which deceleration occurs, and (2) improving the log-log rate of loss improvement after deceleration. We attribute loss deceleration to a type of degenerate training dynamics we term zero-sum learning (ZSL). In ZSL, per-example gradients become systematically opposed, leading to destructive interference in per-example changes in loss. As a result, improving loss on one subset of examples degrades it on another, bottlenecking overall progress. Loss deceleration and ZSL provide new insights into the training dynamics underlying language model scaling laws, and could potentially be targeted directly to improve language models independent of scale. We make our code and artefacts available at: https://github.com/mirandrom/zsl

This paper investigates discrepancies in how neural networks learn from different imaging domains, which are commonly overlooked when adopting computer vision techniques from the domain of natural images to other specialized domains such as medical images. Recent works have found that the generalization error of a trained network typically increases with the intrinsic dimension (d_{data}) of its training set. Yet, the steepness of this relationship varies significantly between medical (radiological) and natural imaging domains, with no existing theoretical explanation. We address this gap in knowledge by establishing and empirically validating a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{data}, and propose that the substantial scaling discrepancy between the two considered domains may be at least partially attributed to the higher intrinsic ``label sharpness'' (K_F) of medical imaging datasets, a metric which we propose. Next, we demonstrate an additional benefit of measuring the label sharpness of a training set: it is negatively correlated with the trained model's adversarial robustness, which notably leads to models for medical images having a substantially higher vulnerability to adversarial attack. Finally, we extend our d_{data} formalism to the related metric of learned representation intrinsic dimension (d_{repr}), derive a generalization scaling law with respect to d_{repr}, and show that d_{data} serves as an upper bound for d_{repr}. Our theoretical results are supported by thorough experiments with six models and eleven natural and medical imaging datasets over a range of training set sizes. Our findings offer insights into the influence of intrinsic dataset properties on generalization, representation learning, and robustness in deep neural networks. Code link: https://github.com/mazurowski-lab/intrinsic-properties

The evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is a key element in their continuous improvement process and many benchmarks have been developed to assess the performance of LLMs in different tasks and topics. As LLMs become adopted worldwide, evaluating them in languages other than English is increasingly important. However, most LLM benchmarks are simply translated using an automated tool and then run in the target language. This means that the results depend not only on the LLM performance in that language but also on the quality of the translation. In this paper, we consider the case of the well-known Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Selected categories of the benchmark are translated into Spanish using Azure Translator and ChatGPT4 and run on ChatGPT4. Next, the results are processed to identify the test items that produce different answers in Spanish and English. Those are then analyzed manually to understand if the automatic translation caused the change. The results show that a significant fraction of the failing items can be attributed to mistakes in the translation of the benchmark. These results make a strong case for improving benchmarks in languages other than English by at least revising the translations of the items and preferably by adapting the tests to the target language by experts.

Self-supervised learning aims to learn representations from the data itself without explicit manual supervision. Existing efforts ignore a crucial aspect of self-supervised learning - the ability to scale to large amount of data because self-supervision requires no manual labels. In this work, we revisit this principle and scale two popular self-supervised approaches to 100 million images. We show that by scaling on various axes (including data size and problem 'hardness'), one can largely match or even exceed the performance of supervised pre-training on a variety of tasks such as object detection, surface normal estimation (3D) and visual navigation using reinforcement learning. Scaling these methods also provides many interesting insights into the limitations of current self-supervised techniques and evaluations. We conclude that current self-supervised methods are not 'hard' enough to take full advantage of large scale data and do not seem to learn effective high level semantic representations. We also introduce an extensive benchmark across 9 different datasets and tasks. We believe that such a benchmark along with comparable evaluation settings is necessary to make meaningful progress. Code is at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/fair_self_supervision_benchmark.

Scaling pre-training compute has proven effective for achieving mulitlinguality, but does the same hold for test-time scaling? In this work, we introduce MCLM, a multilingual math benchmark featuring competition-level problems in 55 languages. We test three test-time scaling methods-Outcome Reward Modeling (ORM), Process Reward Modeling (ORM), and Budget Forcing (BF)-on both Qwen2.5-1.5B Math and MR1-1.5B, a multilingual LLM we trained for extended reasoning. Our experiments show that using Qwen2.5-1.5B Math with ORM achieves a score of 35.8 on MCLM, while BF on MR1-1.5B attains 35.2. Although "thinking LLMs" have recently garnered significant attention, we find that their performance is comparable to traditional scaling methods like best-of-N once constrained to similar levels of inference FLOPs. Moreover, while BF yields a 20-point improvement on English AIME, it provides only a 1.94-point average gain across other languages-a pattern consistent across the other test-time scaling methods we studied-higlighting that test-time scaling may not generalize as effectively to multilingual tasks. To foster further research, we release MCLM, MR1-1.5B, and evaluation results.

The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law -- the finding that loss decreases as a power law with model size -- remains unclear. Starting from two empirical principles -- that LLMs represent more things than the model dimensions (widths) they have (i.e., representations are superposed), and that words or concepts in language occur with varying frequencies -- we constructed a toy model to study the loss scaling with model size. We found that when superposition is weak, meaning only the most frequent features are represented without interference, the scaling of loss with model size depends on the underlying feature frequency; if feature frequencies follow a power law, so does the loss. In contrast, under strong superposition, where all features are represented but overlap with each other, the loss becomes inversely proportional to the model dimension across a wide range of feature frequency distributions. This robust scaling behavior is explained geometrically: when many more vectors are packed into a lower dimensional space, the interference (squared overlaps) between vectors scales inversely with that dimension. We then analyzed four families of open-sourced LLMs and found that they exhibit strong superposition and quantitatively match the predictions of our toy model. The Chinchilla scaling law turned out to also agree with our results. We conclude that representation superposition is an important mechanism underlying the observed neural scaling laws. We anticipate that these insights will inspire new training strategies and model architectures to achieve better performance with less computation and fewer parameters.

We introduce Differential Performance Evaluation (DPE), a framework designed to reliably evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) for efficient code generation. Traditional coding benchmarks often fail to provide reliable insights into code efficiency, due to their reliance on simplistic test inputs and the absence of effective compound metrics. DPE addresses these issues by focusing on efficiency-demanding programming tasks and establishing an insightful compound metric for performance evaluation. DPE operates in two phases: To curate efficiency datasets, it selects efficiency-demanding tasks from existing coding benchmarks and generates computationally expensive inputs to stress the efficiency of LLM solutions. To assess the code efficiency, DPE profiles the new solution and compares it globally against a set of reference solutions that exhibit distinct efficiency levels, where the matched level defines its efficiency score. As a proof of concept, we use DPE to create EvalPerf, a benchmark with 121 performance-challenging coding tasks. Our comprehensive evaluation draws interesting findings on the efficiency impact of model sizes, instruction tuning, and prompting. For example, while the scaling law fails to account for code efficiency, general instruction tuning benefits both code correctness and efficiency. We also evaluate the evaluation by examining the effectiveness of DPE, showing that EvalPerf is reliable and convenient to use even across platforms.