Daily Papers

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

A significant aspiration of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is to develop a generalist agent with high capabilities from large and heterogeneous datasets. However, prior approaches that scale offline RL either rely heavily on expert trajectories or struggle to generalize to diverse unseen tasks. Inspired by the excellent generalization of world model in conditional video generation, we explore the potential of image observation-based world model for scaling offline RL and enhancing generalization on novel tasks. In this paper, we introduce JOWA: Jointly-Optimized World-Action model, an offline model-based RL agent pretrained on multiple Atari games with 6 billion tokens data to learn general-purpose representation and decision-making ability. Our method jointly optimizes a world-action model through a shared transformer backbone, which stabilize temporal difference learning with large models during pretraining. Moreover, we propose a provably efficient and parallelizable planning algorithm to compensate for the Q-value estimation error and thus search out better policies. Experimental results indicate that our largest agent, with 150 million parameters, achieves 78.9% human-level performance on pretrained games using only 10% subsampled offline data, outperforming existing state-of-the-art large-scale offline RL baselines by 31.6% on averange. Furthermore, JOWA scales favorably with model capacity and can sample-efficiently transfer to novel games using only 5k offline fine-tuning data (approximately 4 trajectories) per game, demonstrating superior generalization. We will release codes and model weights at https://github.com/CJReinforce/JOWA

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has been demonstrated to be effective in continuous control tasks. When a world model and a value function are available, planning a sequence of actions ahead of time leads to a better policy. Existing methods typically obtain the value function and the corresponding policy in a model-free manner. However, we find that such an approach struggles with complex tasks, resulting in poor policy learning and inaccurate value estimation. To address this problem, we leverage the strengths of MPC itself. In this work, we introduce Bootstrapped Model Predictive Control (BMPC), a novel algorithm that performs policy learning in a bootstrapped manner. BMPC learns a network policy by imitating an MPC expert, and in turn, uses this policy to guide the MPC process. Combined with model-based TD-learning, our policy learning yields better value estimation and further boosts the efficiency of MPC. We also introduce a lazy reanalyze mechanism, which enables computationally efficient imitation learning. Our method achieves superior performance over prior works on diverse continuous control tasks. In particular, on challenging high-dimensional locomotion tasks, BMPC significantly improves data efficiency while also enhancing asymptotic performance and training stability, with comparable training time and smaller network sizes. Code is available at https://github.com/wertyuilife2/bmpc.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as an effective approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), especially in scenarios where supervised fine-tuning (SFT) falls short due to limited chain-of-thought (CoT) data. Among RL-based post-training methods, group relative advantage estimation, as exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has attracted considerable attention for eliminating the dependency on the value model, thereby simplifying training compared to traditional approaches like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). However, we observe that exsiting group relative advantage estimation method still suffers from training inefficiencies, particularly when the estimated advantage approaches zero. To address this limitation, we propose Advantage-Augmented Policy Optimization (AAPO), a novel RL algorithm that optimizes the cross-entropy (CE) loss using advantages enhanced through a momentum-based estimation scheme. This approach effectively mitigates the inefficiencies associated with group relative advantage estimation. Experimental results on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of AAPO.

Offline reinforcement learning aims to train agents from pre-collected datasets. However, this comes with the added challenge of estimating the value of behaviors not covered in the dataset. Model-based methods offer a potential solution by training an approximate dynamics model, which then allows collection of additional synthetic data via rollouts in this model. The prevailing theory treats this approach as online RL in an approximate dynamics model, and any remaining performance gap is therefore understood as being due to dynamics model errors. In this paper, we analyze this assumption and investigate how popular algorithms perform as the learned dynamics model is improved. In contrast to both intuition and theory, if the learned dynamics model is replaced by the true error-free dynamics, existing model-based methods completely fail. This reveals a key oversight: The theoretical foundations assume sampling of full horizon rollouts in the learned dynamics model; however, in practice, the number of model-rollout steps is aggressively reduced to prevent accumulating errors. We show that this truncation of rollouts results in a set of edge-of-reach states at which we are effectively ``bootstrapping from the void.'' This triggers pathological value overestimation and complete performance collapse. We term this the edge-of-reach problem. Based on this new insight, we fill important gaps in existing theory, and reveal how prior model-based methods are primarily addressing the edge-of-reach problem, rather than model-inaccuracy as claimed. Finally, we propose Reach-Aware Value Learning (RAVL), a simple and robust method that directly addresses the edge-of-reach problem and hence - unlike existing methods - does not fail as the dynamics model is improved. Code open-sourced at: github.com/anyasims/edge-of-reach.

Collecting ground truth task completion rewards or human demonstrations for multi-step reasoning tasks is often cost-prohibitive and time-consuming, especially in interactive domains like web tasks. To address this bottleneck, we present self-taught lookahead, a self-supervised method that leverages state-transition dynamics to train a value model capable of effectively guiding language model-controlled search. We find that moderately sized (8 billion parameters) open-weight value models improved with self-taught lookahead can match the performance of using a frontier LLM such as gpt-4o as the value model. Furthermore, we find that self-taught lookahead improves performance by 20% while reducing costs 37x compared to previous LLM-based tree search, without relying on ground truth rewards.

Visual instruction tuning is the key to building multimodal large language models (MLLMs), which greatly improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in vision scenario. However, existing MLLMs mostly rely on a mixture of multiple highly diverse visual instruction datasets for training (even more than a million instructions), which may introduce data redundancy. To investigate this issue, we conduct a series of empirical studies, which reveal a significant redundancy within the visual instruction datasets, and show that greatly reducing the amount of several instruction dataset even do not affect the performance. Based on the findings, we propose a new data selection approach TIVE, to eliminate redundancy within visual instruction data. TIVE first estimates the task-level and instance-level value of the visual instructions based on computed gradients. Then, according to the estimated values, TIVE determines the task proportion within the visual instructions, and selects representative instances to compose a smaller visual instruction subset for training. Experiments on LLaVA-1.5 show that our approach using only about 7.5% data can achieve comparable performance as the full-data fine-tuned model across seven benchmarks, even surpassing it on four of the benchmarks. Our code and data will be publicly released.

While multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have made significant progress in complex reasoning tasks via reinforcement learning, it is commonly believed that extensive training data is necessary for improving multi-modal reasoning ability, inevitably leading to data redundancy and substantial computational costs. However, can smaller high-value datasets match or outperform full corpora for multi-modal reasoning in MLLMs? In this work, we challenge this assumption through a key observation: meaningful multi-modal reasoning is triggered by only a sparse subset of training samples, termed cognitive samples, whereas the majority contribute marginally. Building on this insight, we propose a novel data selection paradigm termed Reasoning Activation Potential (RAP), which identifies cognitive samples by estimating each sample's potential to stimulate genuine multi-modal reasoning by two complementary estimators: 1) Causal Discrepancy Estimator (CDE) based on the potential outcome model principle, eliminates samples that overly rely on language priors by comparing outputs between multi-modal and text-only inputs; 2) Attention Confidence Estimator (ACE), which exploits token-level self-attention to discard samples dominated by irrelevant but over-emphasized tokens in intermediate reasoning stages. Moreover, we introduce a Difficulty-aware Replacement Module (DRM) to substitute trivial instances with cognitively challenging ones, thereby ensuring complexity for robust multi-modal reasoning. Experiments on six datasets show that our RAP method consistently achieves superior performance using only 9.3% of the training data, while reducing computational costs by over 43%. Our code is available at https://github.com/Leo-ssl/RAP.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

Despite well-documented consequences of the U.S. government's 1930s housing policies on racial wealth disparities, scholars have struggled to quantify its precise financial effects due to the inaccessibility of historical property appraisal records. Many counties still store these records in physical formats, making large-scale quantitative analysis difficult. We present an approach scholars can use to digitize historical housing assessment data, applying it to build and release a dataset for one county. Starting from publicly available scanned documents, we manually annotated property cards for over 12,000 properties to train and validate our methods. We use OCR to label data for an additional 50,000 properties, based on our two-stage approach combining classical computer vision techniques with deep learning-based OCR. For cases where OCR cannot be applied, such as when scanned documents are not available, we show how a regression model based on building feature data can estimate the historical values, and test the generalizability of this model to other counties. With these cost-effective tools, scholars, community activists, and policy makers can better analyze and understand the historical impacts of redlining.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) is a severe disease characterized by an elevated pulmonary artery pressure. The gold standard for PH diagnosis is measurement of mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure (mPAP) during an invasive Right Heart Catheterization. In this paper, we investigate noninvasive approach to PH detection utilizing Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computer Models and Machine Learning. We show using the ablation study, that physics-informed feature engineering based on models of blood circulation increases the performance of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees-based algorithms for classification of PH and regression of values of mPAP. We compare results of regression (with thresholding of estimated mPAP) and classification and demonstrate that metrics achieved in both experiments are comparable. The predicted mPAP values are more informative to the physicians than the probability of PH returned by classification models. They provide the intuitive explanation of the outcome of the machine learning model (clinicians are accustomed to the mPAP metric, contrary to the PH probability).

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

Reinforcement learning (RL) promises a framework for near-universal problem-solving. In practice however, RL algorithms are often tailored to specific benchmarks, relying on carefully tuned hyperparameters and algorithmic choices. Recently, powerful model-based RL methods have shown impressive general results across benchmarks but come at the cost of increased complexity and slow run times, limiting their broader applicability. In this paper, we attempt to find a unifying model-free deep RL algorithm that can address a diverse class of domains and problem settings. To achieve this, we leverage model-based representations that approximately linearize the value function, taking advantage of the denser task objectives used by model-based RL while avoiding the costs associated with planning or simulated trajectories. We evaluate our algorithm, MR.Q, on a variety of common RL benchmarks with a single set of hyperparameters and show a competitive performance against domain-specific and general baselines, providing a concrete step towards building general-purpose model-free deep RL algorithms.

As post-training processes utilize increasingly large datasets and base models continue to grow in size, the computational demands and implementation challenges of existing algorithms are escalating significantly. In this paper, we propose modeling the changes at the logits level during post-training using a separate neural network (i.e., the value network). After training this network on a small base model using demonstrations, this network can be seamlessly integrated with other pre-trained models during inference, enables them to achieve similar capability enhancements. We systematically investigate the best practices for this paradigm in terms of pre-training weights and connection schemes. We demonstrate that the resulting value network has broad transferability across pre-trained models of different parameter sizes within the same family, models undergoing continuous pre-training within the same family, and models with different vocabularies across families. In certain cases, it can achieve performance comparable to full-parameter fine-tuning. Furthermore, we explore methods to enhance the transferability of the value model and prevent overfitting to the base model used during training.

We propose a novel approach to addressing two fundamental challenges in Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL): the computational expense of repeatedly finding a good policy in the learned model, and the objective mismatch between model fitting and policy computation. Our "lazy" method leverages a novel unified objective, Performance Difference via Advantage in Model, to capture the performance difference between the learned policy and expert policy under the true dynamics. This objective demonstrates that optimizing the expected policy advantage in the learned model under an exploration distribution is sufficient for policy computation, resulting in a significant boost in computational efficiency compared to traditional planning methods. Additionally, the unified objective uses a value moment matching term for model fitting, which is aligned with the model's usage during policy computation. We present two no-regret algorithms to optimize the proposed objective, and demonstrate their statistical and computational gains compared to existing MBRL methods through simulated benchmarks.

A recent line of works showed regret bounds in reinforcement learning (RL) can be (nearly) independent of planning horizon, a.k.a.~the horizon-free bounds. However, these regret bounds only apply to settings where a polynomial dependency on the size of transition model is allowed, such as tabular Markov Decision Process (MDP) and linear mixture MDP. We give the first horizon-free bound for the popular linear MDP setting where the size of the transition model can be exponentially large or even uncountable. In contrast to prior works which explicitly estimate the transition model and compute the inhomogeneous value functions at different time steps, we directly estimate the value functions and confidence sets. We obtain the horizon-free bound by: (1) maintaining multiple weighted least square estimators for the value functions; and (2) a structural lemma which shows the maximal total variation of the inhomogeneous value functions is bounded by a polynomial factor of the feature dimension.

Generalization is arguably the most important goal of statistical language modeling research. Publicly available benchmarks and papers published with an open-source code have been critical to advancing the field. However, it is often very difficult, and sometimes even impossible, to reproduce the results fully as reported in publications. In this paper, we propose a simple framework that should help advance the state of the art in language modeling in terms of generalization. We propose to publish not just the code, but also probabilities on dev and test sets with future publications so that one can easily add the new model into an ensemble. This has crucial advantages: it is much easier to determine whether a newly proposed model is actually complementary to the current baseline. Therefore, instead of inventing new names for the old tricks, the scientific community can advance faster. Finally, this approach promotes diversity of ideas: one does not need to create an individual model that is the new state of the art to attract attention; it will be sufficient to develop a new model that learns patterns which other models do not. Thus, even a suboptimal model can be found to have value. Remarkably, our approach has yielded new state-of-the-art results across various language modeling benchmarks up to 10%.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has been shown to be a powerful framework for data-efficiently learning control of continuous tasks. Recent work in MBRL has mostly focused on using more advanced function approximators and planning schemes, with little development of the general framework. In this paper, we identify a fundamental issue of the standard MBRL framework -- what we call the objective mismatch issue. Objective mismatch arises when one objective is optimized in the hope that a second, often uncorrelated, metric will also be optimized. In the context of MBRL, we characterize the objective mismatch between training the forward dynamics model w.r.t.~the likelihood of the one-step ahead prediction, and the overall goal of improving performance on a downstream control task. For example, this issue can emerge with the realization that dynamics models effective for a specific task do not necessarily need to be globally accurate, and vice versa globally accurate models might not be sufficiently accurate locally to obtain good control performance on a specific task. In our experiments, we study this objective mismatch issue and demonstrate that the likelihood of one-step ahead predictions is not always correlated with control performance. This observation highlights a critical limitation in the MBRL framework which will require further research to be fully understood and addressed. We propose an initial method to mitigate the mismatch issue by re-weighting dynamics model training. Building on it, we conclude with a discussion about other potential directions of research for addressing this issue.

This paper investigates the use of prior computation to estimate the value function to improve sample efficiency in on-policy policy gradient methods in reinforcement learning. Our approach is to estimate the value function from prior computations, such as from the Q-network learned in DQN or the value function trained for different but related environments. In particular, we learn a new value function for the target task while combining it with a value estimate from the prior computation. Finally, the resulting value function is used as a baseline in the policy gradient method. This use of a baseline has the theoretical property of reducing variance in gradient computation and thus improving sample efficiency. The experiments show the successful use of prior value estimates in various settings and improved sample efficiency in several tasks.

Detecting AI risks becomes more challenging as stronger models emerge and find novel methods such as Alignment Faking to circumvent these detection attempts. Inspired by how risky behaviors in humans (i.e., illegal activities that may hurt others) are sometimes guided by strongly-held values, we believe that identifying values within AI models can be an early warning system for AI's risky behaviors. We create LitmusValues, an evaluation pipeline to reveal AI models' priorities on a range of AI value classes. Then, we collect AIRiskDilemmas, a diverse collection of dilemmas that pit values against one another in scenarios relevant to AI safety risks such as Power Seeking. By measuring an AI model's value prioritization using its aggregate choices, we obtain a self-consistent set of predicted value priorities that uncover potential risks. We show that values in LitmusValues (including seemingly innocuous ones like Care) can predict for both seen risky behaviors in AIRiskDilemmas and unseen risky behaviors in HarmBench.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) using an implicit reward model has proven to be an effective alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for fine-tuning preference aligned large language models (LLMs). However, the overall preference annotations of responses do not fully capture the fine-grained quality of model outputs in complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as mathematical reasoning. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel algorithm called Step-level Value Preference Optimization (SVPO). Our approach employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to automatically annotate step-level preferences for multi-step reasoning. Furthermore, from the perspective of learning-to-rank, we train an explicit value model to replicate the behavior of the implicit reward model, complementing standard preference optimization. This value model enables the LLM to generate higher reward responses with minimal cost during inference. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/MARIO-Math-Reasoning/Super_MARIO.

Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.

Model-based evaluation is at the heart of successful model development -- as a reward model for training, and as a replacement for human evaluation. To train such evaluators, the standard approach is to collect a large amount of human preference judgments over model responses, which is costly and the data becomes stale as models improve. In this work, we present an approach that aims to im-prove evaluators without human annotations, using synthetic training data only. Starting from unlabeled instructions, our iterative self-improvement scheme generates contrasting model outputs and trains an LLM-as-a-Judge to produce reasoning traces and final judgments, repeating this training at each new iteration using the improved predictions. Without any labeled preference data, our Self-Taught Evaluator can improve a strong LLM (Llama3-70B-Instruct) from 75.4 to 88.3 (88.7 with majority vote) on RewardBench. This outperforms commonly used LLM judges such as GPT-4 and matches the performance of the top-performing reward models trained with labeled examples.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a method for estimating the return of a target policy using some pre-collected observational data generated by a potentially different behavior policy. In some cases, there may be unmeasured variables that can confound the action-reward or action-next-state relationships, rendering many existing OPE approaches ineffective. This paper develops an instrumental variable (IV)-based method for consistent OPE in confounded Markov decision processes (MDPs). Similar to single-stage decision making, we show that IV enables us to correctly identify the target policy's value in infinite horizon settings as well. Furthermore, we propose an efficient and robust value estimator and illustrate its effectiveness through extensive simulations and analysis of real data from a world-leading short-video platform.

We present VAPO, Value-based Augmented Proximal Policy Optimization framework for reasoning models., a novel framework tailored for reasoning models within the value-based paradigm. Benchmarked the AIME 2024 dataset, VAPO, built on the Qwen 32B pre-trained model, attains a state-of-the-art score of 60.4. In direct comparison under identical experimental settings, VAPO outperforms the previously reported results of DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Qwen-32B and DAPO by more than 10 points. The training process of VAPO stands out for its stability and efficiency. It reaches state-of-the-art performance within a mere 5,000 steps. Moreover, across multiple independent runs, no training crashes occur, underscoring its reliability. This research delves into long chain-of-thought (long-CoT) reasoning using a value-based reinforcement learning framework. We pinpoint three key challenges that plague value-based methods: value model bias, the presence of heterogeneous sequence lengths, and the sparsity of reward signals. Through systematic design, VAPO offers an integrated solution that effectively alleviates these challenges, enabling enhanced performance in long-CoT reasoning tasks.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Program synthesis aims to create accurate, executable code from natural language descriptions. This field has leveraged the power of reinforcement learning (RL) in conjunction with large language models (LLMs), significantly enhancing code generation capabilities. This integration focuses on directly optimizing functional correctness, transcending conventional supervised losses. While current literature predominantly favors policy-based algorithms, attributes of program synthesis suggest a natural compatibility with value-based methods. This stems from rich collection of off-policy programs developed by human programmers, and the straightforward verification of generated programs through automated unit testing (i.e. easily obtainable rewards in RL language). Diverging from the predominant use of policy-based algorithms, our work explores the applicability of value-based approaches, leading to the development of our B-Coder (pronounced Bellman coder). Yet, training value-based methods presents challenges due to the enormous search space inherent to program synthesis. To this end, we propose an initialization protocol for RL agents utilizing pre-trained LMs and a conservative Bellman operator to reduce training complexities. Moreover, we demonstrate how to leverage the learned value functions as a dual strategy to post-process generated programs. Our empirical evaluations demonstrated B-Coder's capability in achieving state-of-the-art performance compared with policy-based methods. Remarkably, this achievement is reached with minimal reward engineering effort, highlighting the effectiveness of value-based RL, independent of reward designs.

While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become the predominant method for controlling language model outputs, it suffers from high computational costs and training instability. Guided decoding, especially value-guided methods, offers a cost-effective alternative by controlling outputs without re-training models. However, the accuracy of the value function is crucial for value-guided decoding, as inaccuracies can lead to suboptimal decision-making and degraded performance. Existing methods struggle with accurately estimating the optimal value function, leading to less effective control. We propose Iterative Value Function Optimization, a novel framework that addresses these limitations through two key components: Monte Carlo Value Estimation, which reduces estimation variance by exploring diverse trajectories, and Iterative On-Policy Optimization, which progressively improves value estimation through collecting trajectories from value-guided policies. Extensive experiments on text summarization, multi-turn dialogue, and instruction following demonstrate the effectiveness of value-guided decoding approaches in aligning language models. These approaches not only achieve alignment but also significantly reduce computational costs by leveraging principled value function optimization for efficient and effective control.

We study regret minimization for reinforcement learning (RL) in Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with context in hindsight. We design a novel model-based algorithmic framework which can be instantiated with both a model-optimistic and a value-optimistic solver. We prove an O(mathsf{Var^star M Gamma S A K}) regret bound where O hides logarithm factors, M is the number of contexts, S is the number of states, A is the number of actions, K is the number of episodes, Gamma le S is the maximum transition degree of any state-action pair, and Var^star is a variance quantity describing the determinism of the LMDP. The regret bound only scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, thus yielding the first (nearly) horizon-free regret bound for LMDP. This is also the first problem-dependent regret bound for LMDP. Key in our proof is an analysis of the total variance of alpha vectors (a generalization of value functions), which is handled with a truncation method. We complement our positive result with a novel Omega(mathsf{Var^star M S A K}) regret lower bound with Gamma = 2, which shows our upper bound minimax optimal when Gamma is a constant for the class of variance-bounded LMDPs. Our lower bound relies on new constructions of hard instances and an argument inspired by the symmetrization technique from theoretical computer science, both of which are technically different from existing lower bound proof for MDPs, and thus can be of independent interest.

Mirror descent value iteration (MDVI), an abstraction of Kullback-Leibler (KL) and entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (RL), has served as the basis for recent high-performing practical RL algorithms. However, despite the use of function approximation in practice, the theoretical understanding of MDVI has been limited to tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). We study MDVI with linear function approximation through its sample complexity required to identify an varepsilon-optimal policy with probability 1-delta under the settings of an infinite-horizon linear MDP, generative model, and G-optimal design. We demonstrate that least-squares regression weighted by the variance of an estimated optimal value function of the next state is crucial to achieving minimax optimality. Based on this observation, we present Variance-Weighted Least-Squares MDVI (VWLS-MDVI), the first theoretical algorithm that achieves nearly minimax optimal sample complexity for infinite-horizon linear MDPs. Furthermore, we propose a practical VWLS algorithm for value-based deep RL, Deep Variance Weighting (DVW). Our experiments demonstrate that DVW improves the performance of popular value-based deep RL algorithms on a set of MinAtar benchmarks.

In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient method for value model training on long-context reasoning traces. Compared to existing process reward models (PRMs), our method does not require a fine-grained notion of "step," which is difficult to define for long-context reasoning models. By collecting a dataset of 2.5 million reasoning traces, we train a 1.5B token-level value model and apply it to DeepSeek models for improved performance with test-time compute scaling. We find that block-wise value-guided search (VGS) with a final weighted majority vote achieves better test-time scaling than standard methods such as majority voting or best-of-n. With an inference budget of 64 generations, VGS with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-1.5B achieves an average accuracy of 45.7% across four competition math benchmarks (AIME 2024 & 2025, HMMT Feb 2024 & 2025), reaching parity with o3-mini-medium. Moreover, VGS significantly reduces the inference FLOPs required to achieve the same performance of majority voting. Our dataset, model and codebase are open-sourced.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming diverse fields and gaining increasing influence as human proxies. This development underscores the urgent need for evaluating value orientations and understanding of LLMs to ensure their responsible integration into public-facing applications. This work introduces ValueBench, the first comprehensive psychometric benchmark for evaluating value orientations and value understanding in LLMs. ValueBench collects data from 44 established psychometric inventories, encompassing 453 multifaceted value dimensions. We propose an evaluation pipeline grounded in realistic human-AI interactions to probe value orientations, along with novel tasks for evaluating value understanding in an open-ended value space. With extensive experiments conducted on six representative LLMs, we unveil their shared and distinctive value orientations and exhibit their ability to approximate expert conclusions in value-related extraction and generation tasks. ValueBench is openly accessible at https://github.com/Value4AI/ValueBench.

Probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is widely used in existing model-based reinforcement learning methods as it outperforms a single dynamics model in both asymptotic performance and sample efficiency. In this paper, we provide both practical and theoretical insights on the empirical success of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble through the lens of Lipschitz continuity. We find that, for a value function, the stronger the Lipschitz condition is, the smaller the gap between the true dynamics- and learned dynamics-induced Bellman operators is, thus enabling the converged value function to be closer to the optimal value function. Hence, we hypothesize that the key functionality of the probabilistic dynamics model ensemble is to regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value function using generated samples. To test this hypothesis, we devise two practical robust training mechanisms through computing the adversarial noise and regularizing the value network's spectral norm to directly regularize the Lipschitz condition of the value functions. Empirical results show that combined with our mechanisms, model-based RL algorithms with a single dynamics model outperform those with an ensemble of probabilistic dynamics models. These findings not only support the theoretical insight, but also provide a practical solution for developing computationally efficient model-based RL algorithms.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (RL) is widely believed to have the potential to improve sample efficiency by allowing an agent to synthesize large amounts of imagined experience. Experience Replay (ER) can be considered a simple kind of model, which has proved extremely effective at improving the stability and efficiency of deep RL. In principle, a learned parametric model could improve on ER by generalizing from real experience to augment the dataset with additional plausible experience. However, owing to the many design choices involved in empirically successful algorithms, it can be very hard to establish where the benefits are actually coming from. Here, we provide theoretical and empirical insight into when, and how, we can expect data generated by a learned model to be useful. First, we provide a general theorem motivating how learning a model as an intermediate step can narrow down the set of possible value functions more than learning a value function directly from data using the Bellman equation. Second, we provide an illustrative example showing empirically how a similar effect occurs in a more concrete setting with neural network function approximation. Finally, we provide extensive experiments showing the benefit of model-based learning for online RL in environments with combinatorial complexity, but factored structure that allows a learned model to generalize. In these experiments, we take care to control for other factors in order to isolate, insofar as possible, the benefit of using experience generated by a learned model relative to ER alone.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has gained much attention for its ability to learn complex behaviors in a sample-efficient way: planning actions by generating imaginary trajectories with predicted rewards. Despite its success, we found that surprisingly, reward prediction is often a bottleneck of MBRL, especially for sparse rewards that are challenging (or even ambiguous) to predict. Motivated by the intuition that humans can learn from rough reward estimates, we propose a simple yet effective reward smoothing approach, DreamSmooth, which learns to predict a temporally-smoothed reward, instead of the exact reward at the given timestep. We empirically show that DreamSmooth achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon sparse-reward tasks both in sample efficiency and final performance without losing performance on common benchmarks, such as Deepmind Control Suite and Atari benchmarks.

While many real-world problems that might benefit from reinforcement learning, these problems rarely fit into the MDP mold: interacting with the environment is often expensive and specifying reward functions is challenging. Motivated by these challenges, prior work has developed data-driven approaches that learn entirely from samples from the transition dynamics and examples of high-return states. These methods typically learn a reward function from high-return states, use that reward function to label the transitions, and then apply an offline RL algorithm to these transitions. While these methods can achieve good results on many tasks, they can be complex, often requiring regularization and temporal difference updates. In this paper, we propose a method for offline, example-based control that learns an implicit model of multi-step transitions, rather than a reward function. We show that this implicit model can represent the Q-values for the example-based control problem. Across a range of state-based and image-based offline control tasks, our method outperforms baselines that use learned reward functions; additional experiments demonstrate improved robustness and scaling with dataset size.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Agents significantly enhance the capabilities of standalone Large Language Models (LLMs) by perceiving environments, making decisions, and executing actions. However, LLM agents still face challenges in tasks that require multiple decision-making steps. Estimating the value of actions in specific tasks is difficult when intermediate actions are neither appropriately rewarded nor penalized. In this paper, we propose leveraging a task-relevant Q-value model to guide action selection. Specifically, we first collect decision-making trajectories annotated with step-level Q values via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and construct preference data. We then use another LLM to fit these preferences through step-level Direct Policy Optimization (DPO), which serves as the Q-value model. During inference, at each decision-making step, LLM agents select the action with the highest Q value before interacting with the environment. We apply our method to various open-source and API-based LLM agents, demonstrating that Q-value models significantly improve their performance. Notably, the performance of the agent built with Phi-3-mini-4k-instruct improved by 103% on WebShop and 75% on HotPotQA when enhanced with Q-value models, even surpassing GPT-4o-mini. Additionally, Q-value models offer several advantages, such as generalization to different LLM agents and seamless integration with existing prompting strategies.

Machine learning (ML) has become a ubiquitous tool across various domains of data mining and big data analysis. The efficacy of ML models depends heavily on high-quality datasets, which are often complicated by the presence of missing values. Consequently, the performance and generalization of ML models are at risk in the face of such datasets. This paper aims to examine the nuanced impact of missing values on ML workflows, including their types, causes, and consequences. Our analysis focuses on the challenges posed by missing values, including biased inferences, reduced predictive power, and increased computational burdens. The paper further explores strategies for handling missing values, including imputation techniques and removal strategies, and investigates how missing values affect model evaluation metrics and introduces complexities in cross-validation and model selection. The study employs case studies and real-world examples to illustrate the practical implications of addressing missing values. Finally, the discussion extends to future research directions, emphasizing the need for handling missing values ethically and transparently. The primary goal of this paper is to provide insights into the pervasive impact of missing values on ML models and guide practitioners toward effective strategies for achieving robust and reliable model outcomes.

Despite the popularity of Shapley Values in explaining neural text classification models, computing them is prohibitive for large pretrained models due to a large number of model evaluations. In practice, Shapley Values are often estimated with a small number of stochastic model evaluations. However, we show that the estimated Shapley Values are sensitive to random seed choices -- the top-ranked features often have little overlap across different seeds, especially on examples with longer input texts. This can only be mitigated by aggregating thousands of model evaluations, which on the other hand, induces substantial computational overheads. To mitigate the trade-off between stability and efficiency, we develop an amortized model that directly predicts each input feature's Shapley Value without additional model evaluations. It is trained on a set of examples whose Shapley Values are estimated from a large number of model evaluations to ensure stability. Experimental results on two text classification datasets demonstrate that our amortized model estimates Shapley Values accurately with up to 60 times speedup compared to traditional methods. Furthermore, the estimated values are stable as the inference is deterministic. We release our code at https://github.com/yangalan123/Amortized-Interpretability.

The vast majority of Reinforcement Learning methods is largely impacted by the computation effort and data requirements needed to obtain effective estimates of action-value functions, which in turn determine the quality of the overall performance and the sample-efficiency of the learning procedure. Typically, action-value functions are estimated through an iterative scheme that alternates the application of an empirical approximation of the Bellman operator and a subsequent projection step onto a considered function space. It has been observed that this scheme can be potentially generalized to carry out multiple iterations of the Bellman operator at once, benefiting the underlying learning algorithm. However, till now, it has been challenging to effectively implement this idea, especially in high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we introduce iterated Q-Network (i-QN), a novel principled approach that enables multiple consecutive Bellman updates by learning a tailored sequence of action-value functions where each serves as the target for the next. We show that i-QN is theoretically grounded and that it can be seamlessly used in value-based and actor-critic methods. We empirically demonstrate the advantages of i-QN in Atari 2600 games and MuJoCo continuous control problems.

Human values and their measurement are long-standing interdisciplinary inquiry. Recent advances in AI have sparked renewed interest in this area, with large language models (LLMs) emerging as both tools and subjects of value measurement. This work introduces Generative Psychometrics for Values (GPV), an LLM-based, data-driven value measurement paradigm, theoretically grounded in text-revealed selective perceptions. We begin by fine-tuning an LLM for accurate perception-level value measurement and verifying the capability of LLMs to parse texts into perceptions, forming the core of the GPV pipeline. Applying GPV to human-authored blogs, we demonstrate its stability, validity, and superiority over prior psychological tools. Then, extending GPV to LLM value measurement, we advance the current art with 1) a psychometric methodology that measures LLM values based on their scalable and free-form outputs, enabling context-specific measurement; 2) a comparative analysis of measurement paradigms, indicating response biases of prior methods; and 3) an attempt to bridge LLM values and their safety, revealing the predictive power of different value systems and the impacts of various values on LLM safety. Through interdisciplinary efforts, we aim to leverage AI for next-generation psychometrics and psychometrics for value-aligned AI.

We propose and theoretically analyze an approach for planning with an approximate model in reinforcement learning that can reduce the adverse impact of model error. If the model is accurate enough, it accelerates the convergence to the true value function too. One of its key components is the MaxEnt Model Correction (MoCo) procedure that corrects the model's next-state distributions based on a Maximum Entropy density estimation formulation. Based on MoCo, we introduce the Model Correcting Value Iteration (MoCoVI) algorithm, and its sampled-based variant MoCoDyna. We show that MoCoVI and MoCoDyna's convergence can be much faster than the conventional model-free algorithms. Unlike traditional model-based algorithms, MoCoVI and MoCoDyna effectively utilize an approximate model and still converge to the correct value function.

Large Language Models (LLMs) heavily rely on high-quality training data, making data valuation crucial for optimizing model performance, especially when working within a limited budget. In this work, we aim to offer a third-party data valuation approach that benefits both data providers and model developers. We introduce a linearized future influence kernel (LinFiK), which assesses the value of individual data samples in improving LLM performance during training. We further propose ALinFiK, a learning strategy to approximate LinFiK, enabling scalable data valuation. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that this approach surpasses existing baselines in effectiveness and efficiency, demonstrating significant scalability advantages as LLM parameters increase.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can compute policy gradients given sampled environment transitions, but require large amounts of data. In contrast, model-based methods can use the learned model to generate new data, but model errors and bias can render learning unstable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present a novel method that combines real-world data and a learned model in order to get the best of both worlds. The core idea is to exploit the real-world data for on-policy predictions and use the learned model only to generalize to different actions. Specifically, we use the data as time-dependent on-policy correction terms on top of a learned model, to retain the ability to generate data without accumulating errors over long prediction horizons. We motivate this method theoretically and show that it counteracts an error term for model-based policy improvement. Experiments on MuJoCo- and PyBullet-benchmarks show that our method can drastically improve existing model-based approaches without introducing additional tuning parameters.

Reward modeling (a.k.a., preference modeling) is instrumental for aligning large language models with human preferences, particularly within the context of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). While conventional reward models (RMs) have exhibited remarkable scalability, they oft struggle with fundamental functionality such as arithmetic computation, code execution, and factual lookup. In this paper, we propose a tool-augmented preference modeling approach, named Themis, to address these limitations by empowering RMs with access to external environments, including calculators and search engines. This approach not only fosters synergy between tool utilization and reward grading but also enhances interpretive capacity and scoring reliability. Our study delves into the integration of external tools into RMs, enabling them to interact with diverse external sources and construct task-specific tool engagement and reasoning traces in an autoregressive manner. We validate our approach across a wide range of domains, incorporating seven distinct external tools. Our experimental results demonstrate a noteworthy overall improvement of 17.7% across eight tasks in preference ranking. Furthermore, our approach outperforms Gopher 280B by 7.3% on TruthfulQA task in zero-shot evaluation. In human evaluations, RLHF trained with Themis attains an average win rate of 32% when compared to baselines across four distinct tasks. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive collection of tool-related RM datasets, incorporating data from seven distinct tool APIs, totaling 15,000 instances. We have made the code, data, and model checkpoints publicly available to facilitate and inspire further research advancements\url{https://github.com/ernie-research/Tool-Augmented-Reward-Model}.

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more accurate dynamic models, evaluating the uncertainty of the learned models, and more rational utilization of models. To mitigate these issues, we present MEEE, a model-ensemble method that consists of optimistic exploration and weighted exploitation. During exploration, unlike prior methods directly selecting the optimal action that maximizes the expected accumulative return, our agent first generates a set of action candidates and then seeks out the optimal action that takes both expected return and future observation novelty into account. During exploitation, different discounted weights are assigned to imagined transition tuples according to their model uncertainty respectively, which will prevent model predictive error propagation in agent training. Experiments on several challenging continuous control benchmark tasks demonstrated that our approach outperforms other model-free and model-based state-of-the-art methods, especially in sample complexity.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

We study the problem of offline pre-training and online fine-tuning for reinforcement learning from high-dimensional observations in the context of realistic robot tasks. Recent offline model-free approaches successfully use online fine-tuning to either improve the performance of the agent over the data collection policy or adapt to novel tasks. At the same time, model-based RL algorithms have achieved significant progress in sample efficiency and the complexity of the tasks they can solve, yet remain under-utilized in the fine-tuning setting. In this work, we argue that existing model-based offline RL methods are not suitable for offline-to-online fine-tuning in high-dimensional domains due to issues with distribution shifts, off-dynamics data, and non-stationary rewards. We propose an on-policy model-based method that can efficiently reuse prior data through model-based value expansion and policy regularization, while preventing model exploitation by controlling epistemic uncertainty. We find that our approach successfully solves tasks from the MetaWorld benchmark, as well as the Franka Kitchen robot manipulation environment completely from images. To the best of our knowledge, MOTO is the first method to solve this environment from pixels.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have substantially enhanced their mathematical reasoning abilities. However, these models still struggle with complex problems that require multiple reasoning steps, frequently leading to logical or numerical errors. While numerical mistakes can be largely addressed by integrating a code interpreter, identifying logical errors within intermediate steps is more challenging. Moreover, manually annotating these steps for training is not only expensive but also labor-intensive, requiring the expertise of professional annotators. In our study, we introduce an innovative approach that bypasses the need for process annotations (from human or GPTs) by utilizing the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework. This technique automatically generates both the process supervision and the step-level evaluation signals. Our method iteratively trains the policy and value models, leveraging the capabilities of a well-pretrained LLM to progressively enhance its mathematical reasoning skills. Furthermore, we propose an efficient inference strategy-step-level beam search, where the value model is crafted to assist the policy model (i.e., LLM) in navigating more effective reasoning paths, rather than solely relying on prior probabilities. The experimental results on both in-domain and out-of-domain datasets demonstrate that even without GPT-4 or human-annotated process supervision, our AlphaMath framework achieves comparable or superior results to previous state-of-the-art methods.

Offline reinforcement learning enables agents to leverage large pre-collected datasets of environment transitions to learn control policies, circumventing the need for potentially expensive or unsafe online data collection. Significant progress has been made recently in offline model-based reinforcement learning, approaches which leverage a learned dynamics model. This typically involves constructing a probabilistic model, and using the model uncertainty to penalize rewards where there is insufficient data, solving for a pessimistic MDP that lower bounds the true MDP. Existing methods, however, exhibit a breakdown between theory and practice, whereby pessimistic return ought to be bounded by the total variation distance of the model from the true dynamics, but is instead implemented through a penalty based on estimated model uncertainty. This has spawned a variety of uncertainty heuristics, with little to no comparison between differing approaches. In this paper, we compare these heuristics, and design novel protocols to investigate their interaction with other hyperparameters, such as the number of models, or imaginary rollout horizon. Using these insights, we show that selecting these key hyperparameters using Bayesian Optimization produces superior configurations that are vastly different to those currently used in existing hand-tuned state-of-the-art methods, and result in drastically stronger performance.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

The widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks and fields has necessitated the alignment of these models with human values and preferences. Given various approaches of human value alignment, ranging from Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), to constitutional learning, etc. there is an urgent need to understand the scope and nature of human values injected into these models before their release. There is also a need for model alignment without a costly large scale human annotation effort. We propose UniVaR, a high-dimensional representation of human value distributions in LLMs, orthogonal to model architecture and training data. Trained from the value-relevant output of eight multilingual LLMs and tested on the output from four multilingual LLMs, namely LlaMA2, ChatGPT, JAIS and Yi, we show that UniVaR is a powerful tool to compare the distribution of human values embedded in different LLMs with different langauge sources. Through UniVaR, we explore how different LLMs prioritize various values in different languages and cultures, shedding light on the complex interplay between human values and language modeling.

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human values has attracted increasing attention since it provides clarity, transparency, and the ability to adapt to evolving scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a Controlled Value Vector Activation (ConVA) method that directly aligns the internal values of LLMs by interpreting how a value is encoded in their latent representations and modifies relevant activations to ensure consistent values in LLMs. To ensure an accurate and unbiased interpretation, we propose a context-controlled value vector identification method. To consistently control values without sacrificing model performance, we introduce a gated value vector activation method for effective and minimum degree of value control. Experiments show that our method achieves the highest control success rate across 10 basic values without hurting LLM performance and fluency, and ensures target values even with opposite and potentially malicious input prompts. Source code and data are available at~ https://github.com/hr-jin/ConVA.

Reward models (RMs) are at the crux of successful RLHF to align pretrained models to human preferences, yet there has been relatively little study that focuses on evaluation of those reward models. Evaluating reward models presents an opportunity to understand the opaque technologies used for alignment of language models and which values are embedded in them. To date, very few descriptors of capabilities, training methods, or open-source reward models exist. In this paper, we present RewardBench, a benchmark dataset and code-base for evaluation, to enhance scientific understanding of reward models. The RewardBench dataset is a collection of prompt-win-lose trios spanning chat, reasoning, and safety, to benchmark how reward models perform on challenging, structured and out-of-distribution queries. We created specific comparison datasets for RMs that have subtle, but verifiable reasons (e.g. bugs, incorrect facts) why one answer should be preferred to another. On the RewardBench leaderboard, we evaluate reward models trained with a variety of methods, such as the direct MLE training of classifiers and the implicit reward modeling of Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and on a spectrum of datasets. We present many findings on propensity for refusals, reasoning limitations, and instruction following shortcomings of various reward models towards a better understanding of the RLHF process.

Big models, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), are models typically pre-trained on massive data and comprised of enormous parameters, which not only obtain significantly improved performance across diverse tasks but also present emergent capabilities absent in smaller models. However, the growing intertwining of big models with everyday human lives poses potential risks and might cause serious social harm. Therefore, many efforts have been made to align LLMs with humans to make them better follow user instructions and satisfy human preferences. Nevertheless, `what to align with' has not been fully discussed, and inappropriate alignment goals might even backfire. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of different alignment goals in existing work and trace their evolution paths to help identify the most essential goal. Particularly, we investigate related works from two perspectives: the definition of alignment goals and alignment evaluation. Our analysis encompasses three distinct levels of alignment goals and reveals a goal transformation from fundamental abilities to value orientation, indicating the potential of intrinsic human values as the alignment goal for enhanced LLMs. Based on such results, we further discuss the challenges of achieving such intrinsic value alignment and provide a collection of available resources for future research on the alignment of big models.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

Disagreements are common in online discussions. Disagreement may foster collaboration and improve the quality of a discussion under some conditions. Although there exist methods for recognizing disagreement, a deeper understanding of factors that influence disagreement is lacking in the literature. We investigate a hypothesis that differences in personal values are indicative of disagreement in online discussions. We show how state-of-the-art models can be used for estimating values in online discussions and how the estimated values can be aggregated into value profiles. We evaluate the estimated value profiles based on human-annotated agreement labels. We find that the dissimilarity of value profiles correlates with disagreement in specific cases. We also find that including value information in agreement prediction improves performance.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

Value functions are a central component of deep reinforcement learning (RL). These functions, parameterized by neural networks, are trained using a mean squared error regression objective to match bootstrapped target values. However, scaling value-based RL methods that use regression to large networks, such as high-capacity Transformers, has proven challenging. This difficulty is in stark contrast to supervised learning: by leveraging a cross-entropy classification loss, supervised methods have scaled reliably to massive networks. Observing this discrepancy, in this paper, we investigate whether the scalability of deep RL can also be improved simply by using classification in place of regression for training value functions. We demonstrate that value functions trained with categorical cross-entropy significantly improves performance and scalability in a variety of domains. These include: single-task RL on Atari 2600 games with SoftMoEs, multi-task RL on Atari with large-scale ResNets, robotic manipulation with Q-transformers, playing Chess without search, and a language-agent Wordle task with high-capacity Transformers, achieving state-of-the-art results on these domains. Through careful analysis, we show that the benefits of categorical cross-entropy primarily stem from its ability to mitigate issues inherent to value-based RL, such as noisy targets and non-stationarity. Overall, we argue that a simple shift to training value functions with categorical cross-entropy can yield substantial improvements in the scalability of deep RL at little-to-no cost.

In this paper, we evaluate whether LLMs learn to make human-like preference judgements in strategic scenarios as compared with known empirical results. Solar and Mistral are shown to exhibit stable value-based preference consistent with humans and exhibit human-like preference for cooperation in the prisoner's dilemma (including stake-size effect) and traveler's dilemma (including penalty-size effect). We establish a relationship between model size, value-based preference, and superficiality. Finally, results here show that models tending to be less brittle have relied on sliding window attention suggesting a potential link. Additionally, we contribute a novel method for constructing preference relations from arbitrary LLMs and support for a hypothesis regarding human behavior in the traveler's dilemma.

We introduce a new framework for sample-efficient model evaluation that we call active testing. While approaches like active learning reduce the number of labels needed for model training, existing literature largely ignores the cost of labeling test data, typically unrealistically assuming large test sets for model evaluation. This creates a disconnect to real applications, where test labels are important and just as expensive, e.g. for optimizing hyperparameters. Active testing addresses this by carefully selecting the test points to label, ensuring model evaluation is sample-efficient. To this end, we derive theoretically-grounded and intuitive acquisition strategies that are specifically tailored to the goals of active testing, noting these are distinct to those of active learning. As actively selecting labels introduces a bias; we further show how to remove this bias while reducing the variance of the estimator at the same time. Active testing is easy to implement and can be applied to any supervised machine learning method. We demonstrate its effectiveness on models including WideResNets and Gaussian processes on datasets including Fashion-MNIST and CIFAR-100.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Reinforcement learning is able to solve complex sequential decision-making tasks but is currently limited by sample efficiency and required computation. To improve sample efficiency, recent work focuses on model-based RL which interleaves model learning with planning. Recent methods further utilize policy learning, value estimation, and, self-supervised learning as auxiliary objectives. In this paper we show that, surprisingly, a simple representation learning approach relying only on a latent dynamics model trained by latent temporal consistency is sufficient for high-performance RL. This applies when using pure planning with a dynamics model conditioned on the representation, but, also when utilizing the representation as policy and value function features in model-free RL. In experiments, our approach learns an accurate dynamics model to solve challenging high-dimensional locomotion tasks with online planners while being 4.1 times faster to train compared to ensemble-based methods. With model-free RL without planning, especially on high-dimensional tasks, such as the DeepMind Control Suite Humanoid and Dog tasks, our approach outperforms model-free methods by a large margin and matches model-based methods' sample efficiency while training 2.4 times faster.

Sequential decision making, commonly formalized as Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, is a important challenge in artificial intelligence. Two key approaches to this problem are reinforcement learning (RL) and planning. This paper presents a survey of the integration of both fields, better known as model-based reinforcement learning. Model-based RL has two main steps. First, we systematically cover approaches to dynamics model learning, including challenges like dealing with stochasticity, uncertainty, partial observability, and temporal abstraction. Second, we present a systematic categorization of planning-learning integration, including aspects like: where to start planning, what budgets to allocate to planning and real data collection, how to plan, and how to integrate planning in the learning and acting loop. After these two sections, we also discuss implicit model-based RL as an end-to-end alternative for model learning and planning, and we cover the potential benefits of model-based RL. Along the way, the survey also draws connections to several related RL fields, like hierarchical RL and transfer learning. Altogether, the survey presents a broad conceptual overview of the combination of planning and learning for MDP optimization.

Even though large language models are becoming increasingly capable, it is still unreasonable to expect them to excel at tasks that are under-represented on the Internet. Leveraging LLMs for specialized applications, particularly in niche programming languages and private domains, remains challenging and largely unsolved. In this work, we address this gap by presenting a comprehensive, open-source approach for adapting LLMs to the Q programming language, a popular tool in quantitative finance that is much less present on the Internet compared to Python, C, Java, and other ``mainstream" languages and is therefore not a strong suit of general-purpose AI models. We introduce a new Leetcode style evaluation dataset for Q, benchmark major frontier models on the dataset, then do pretraining, supervised fine tuning, and reinforcement learning to train a suite of reasoning and non-reasoning models based on the Qwen-2.5 series, spanning five parameter sizes (1.5B, 3B, 7B, 14B, 32B). Our best model achieves a pass@1 accuracy of 59 percent on our Q benchmark, surpassing the best-performing frontier model, Claude Opus-4 by 29.5 percent. Additionally, all models, even our 1.5B model, outperform GPT-4.1 on this task. In addition to releasing models, code, and data, we provide a detailed blueprint for dataset construction, model pretraining, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning. Our methodology is broadly applicable, and we discuss how these techniques can be extended to other tasks, including those where evaluation may rely on soft or subjective signals.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a powerful technique to make large language models (LLMs) more capable in complex settings. RLHF proceeds as collecting human preference data, training a reward model on said data, and optimizing a base ML model with respect to said reward for extrinsic evaluation metrics (e.g. MMLU, GSM8k). RLHF relies on many assumptions about how the various pieces fit together, such as a reward model capturing human preferences and an RL optimizer extracting the right signal from a reward model. As the RLHF process involves many distinct design decisions, it is easy to assume that multiple processes are correlated and therefore numerically linked. This apparent correlation is often not true, where reward models are easily overoptimized or RL optimizers can reduce performance on tasks not modeled in the data. Notable manifestations of models trained with imperfect RLHF systems are those that are prone to refusing basic requests for safety reasons or appearing lazy in generations. As chat model evaluation becomes increasingly nuanced, the reliance on a perceived link between reward model training, RL scores, and downstream performance drives these issues, which we describe as an objective mismatch. In this paper, we illustrate the causes of this issue, reviewing relevant literature from model-based reinforcement learning, and argue for solutions. By solving objective mismatch in RLHF, the ML models of the future will be more precisely aligned to user instructions for both safety and helpfulness.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

We present a general convergent class of reinforcement learning algorithms that is founded on two distinct principles: (1) mapping value estimates to a different space using arbitrary functions from a broad class, and (2) linearly decomposing the reward signal into multiple channels. The first principle enables incorporating specific properties into the value estimator that can enhance learning. The second principle, on the other hand, allows for the value function to be represented as a composition of multiple utility functions. This can be leveraged for various purposes, e.g. dealing with highly varying reward scales, incorporating a priori knowledge about the sources of reward, and ensemble learning. Combining the two principles yields a general blueprint for instantiating convergent algorithms by orchestrating diverse mapping functions over multiple reward channels. This blueprint generalizes and subsumes algorithms such as Q-Learning, Log Q-Learning, and Q-Decomposition. In addition, our convergence proof for this general class relaxes certain required assumptions in some of these algorithms. Based on our theory, we discuss several interesting configurations as special cases. Finally, to illustrate the potential of the design space that our theory opens up, we instantiate a particular algorithm and evaluate its performance on the Atari suite.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

We study reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation, where the agent works in two phases: (1) in the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment but cannot access the reward; and (2) in the planning phase, the agent is given a reward function and is expected to find a near-optimal policy based on samples collected in the exploration phase. The sample complexities of existing reward-free algorithms have a polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, which makes them intractable for long planning horizon RL problems. In this paper, we propose a new reward-free algorithm for learning linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the transition probability can be parameterized as a linear combination of known feature mappings. At the core of our algorithm is uncertainty-weighted value-targeted regression with exploration-driven pseudo-reward and a high-order moment estimator for the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. When the total reward is bounded by 1, we show that our algorithm only needs to explore tilde O( d^2varepsilon^{-2}) episodes to find an varepsilon-optimal policy, where d is the dimension of the feature mapping. The sample complexity of our algorithm only has a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon and therefore is ``horizon-free''. In addition, we provide an Omega(d^2varepsilon^{-2}) sample complexity lower bound, which matches the sample complexity of our algorithm up to logarithmic factors, suggesting that our algorithm is optimal.

Evaluating policies using off-policy data is crucial for applying reinforcement learning to real-world problems such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Previous methods for off-policy evaluation (OPE) generally suffer from high variance or irreducible bias, leading to unacceptably high prediction errors. In this work, we introduce STAR, a framework for OPE that encompasses a broad range of estimators -- which include existing OPE methods as special cases -- that achieve lower mean squared prediction errors. STAR leverages state abstraction to distill complex, potentially continuous problems into compact, discrete models which we call abstract reward processes (ARPs). Predictions from ARPs estimated from off-policy data are provably consistent (asymptotically correct). Rather than proposing a specific estimator, we present a new framework for OPE and empirically demonstrate that estimators within STAR outperform existing methods. The best STAR estimator outperforms baselines in all twelve cases studied, and even the median STAR estimator surpasses the baselines in seven out of the twelve cases.

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

Training Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) agents via Reinforcement Learning (RL) faces critical challenges: environment-based RL requires costly interactions, while environment-free methods struggle with distribution shift and reward generalization. We propose an environment-free RL framework that decouples value estimation from policy optimization by leveraging a pretrained Value Environment Model (VEM). VEM predicts state-action values directly from offline data, distilling human-like priors about GUI interaction outcomes without requiring next-state prediction or environmental feedback. This avoids compounding errors and enhances resilience to UI changes by focusing on semantic reasoning (e.g., Does this action advance the user's goal?). The framework operates in two stages: (1) pretraining VEM to estimate long-term action utilities and (2) guiding policy exploration with frozen VEM signals, enabling layout-agnostic GUI automation. Evaluated on Android-in-the-Wild benchmarks, VEM achieves state-of-the-art performance in both offline and online settings, outperforming environment-free baselines significantly and matching environment-based approaches without interaction costs. Importantly, VEM demonstrates that semantic-aware value estimation can achieve comparable performance with online-trained methods.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

The conventional evaluation protocols on machine learning models rely heavily on a labeled, i.i.d-assumed testing dataset, which is not often present in real world applications. The Automated Model Evaluation (AutoEval) shows an alternative to this traditional workflow, by forming a proximal prediction pipeline of the testing performance without the presence of ground-truth labels. Despite its recent successes, the AutoEval frameworks still suffer from an overconfidence issue, substantial storage and computational cost. In that regard, we propose a novel measure -- Meta-Distribution Energy (MDE) -- that allows the AutoEval framework to be both more efficient and effective. The core of the MDE is to establish a meta-distribution statistic, on the information (energy) associated with individual samples, then offer a smoother representation enabled by energy-based learning. We further provide our theoretical insights by connecting the MDE with the classification loss. We provide extensive experiments across modalities, datasets and different architectural backbones to validate MDE's validity, together with its superiority compared with prior approaches. We also prove MDE's versatility by showing its seamless integration with large-scale models, and easy adaption to learning scenarios with noisy- or imbalanced- labels. Code and data are available: https://github.com/pengr/Energy_AutoEval

Augmenting large language models (LLMs) with external tools is a promising approach to enhance their capabilities. Effectively leveraging this potential for complex tasks hinges crucially on improving their ability to use tools. Synthesizing tool use data by simulating the real world is an effective approach. Nevertheless, our investigation reveals that training gains significantly decay as the scale of these data increases. The primary factor is the model's poor performance (a.k.a deficiency) in complex scenarios, which hinders learning from data using SFT. Driven by this objective, we propose an iterative reinforced fine-tuning strategy to continually guide the model to alleviate it. Specifically, we first identify deficiency-related data based on feedback from the policy model, then perform a Monte Carlo Tree Search to collect fine-grained preference pairs to pinpoint deficiencies. Subsequently, we update the policy model using preference optimization to align with ground truth and misalign with deficiencies. This process can be iterated. Moreover, before the iteration, we propose an easy-to-hard warm-up SFT strategy to facilitate learning from challenging data. The experiments demonstrate our models go beyond the same parametric models, outperforming many larger open-source and closed-source models. Additionally, it has achieved notable training gains in complex tool use scenarios.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Intelligent agents must be generalists - showing the ability to quickly adapt and generalize to varying tasks. Within the framework of reinforcement learning (RL), model-based RL algorithms learn a task-agnostic dynamics model of the world, in principle allowing them to generalize to arbitrary rewards. However, one-step models naturally suffer from compounding errors, making them ineffective for problems with long horizons and large state spaces. In this work, we propose a novel class of models - generalized occupancy models (GOMs) - that retain the generality of model-based RL while avoiding compounding error. The key idea behind GOMs is to model the distribution of all possible long-term outcomes from a given state under the coverage of a stationary dataset, along with a policy that realizes a particular outcome from the given state. These models can then quickly be used to select the optimal action for arbitrary new tasks, without having to redo policy optimization. By directly modeling long-term outcomes, GOMs avoid compounding error while retaining generality across arbitrary reward functions. We provide a practical instantiation of GOMs using diffusion models and show its efficacy as a new class of transferable models, both theoretically and empirically across a variety of simulated robotics problems. Videos and code at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/gom/.

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative tools across various domains, yet tailoring pre-trained models to exhibit specific desirable properties remains challenging. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising solution,current methods struggle to simultaneously achieve stable, efficient fine-tuning and support non-differentiable rewards. Furthermore, their reliance on sparse rewards provides inadequate supervision during intermediate steps, often resulting in suboptimal generation quality. To address these limitations, dense and differentiable signals are required throughout the diffusion process. Hence, we propose VAlue-based Reinforced Diffusion (VARD): a novel approach that first learns a value function predicting expection of rewards from intermediate states, and subsequently uses this value function with KL regularization to provide dense supervision throughout the generation process. Our method maintains proximity to the pretrained model while enabling effective and stable training via backpropagation. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach facilitates better trajectory guidance, improves training efficiency and extends the applicability of RL to diffusion models optimized for complex, non-differentiable reward functions.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

This paper poses two critical issues in evaluating base models (without post-training): (1) Unstable evaluation during training: in the early stages of pre-training, the models lack the capability to answer questions as required, leading to unstable evaluation results. This instability makes it difficult to provide solid conclusions to guide the training, especially for key experiments such as data ablation and scaling law. (2) Inconsistency between base and instruct models: base models generally exhibit poorer evaluation performance compared to corresponding instruct models. This gap poses a challenge for assessing whether a base model with better evaluation can truly lead to a better instruct model. To address these issues, we propose Base model Oriented Systematic Evaluation (BOSE), a method specifically designed to optimize the evaluation of base models. Specifically, BOSE introduces two key innovations: In-Context Light-instruction Prompt (ICLiP) for open-ended tasks and Blank-ppl for multi-choice tasks with candidate options, which transforms the standard perplexity (ppl) metric into a fill-in-the-blank format to mitigate early-stage evaluation fluctuations. Furthermore, we are the first to propose Kendall's rank correlation to quantitatively measure the evaluation stability and consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that BOSE significantly enhances both the stability of evaluations during pre-training and the consistency between base and instruct models, thereby providing more reliable guidance for the LLMs' training.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Generalizing policies across different domains with dynamics mismatch poses a significant challenge in reinforcement learning. For example, a robot learns the policy in a simulator, but when it is deployed in the real world, the dynamics of the environment may be different. Given the source and target domain with dynamics mismatch, we consider the online dynamics adaptation problem, in which case the agent can access sufficient source domain data while online interactions with the target domain are limited. Existing research has attempted to solve the problem from the dynamics discrepancy perspective. In this work, we reveal the limitations of these methods and explore the problem from the value difference perspective via a novel insight on the value consistency across domains. Specifically, we present the Value-Guided Data Filtering (VGDF) algorithm, which selectively shares transitions from the source domain based on the proximity of paired value targets across the two domains. Empirical results on various environments with kinematic and morphology shifts demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance compared to prior approaches.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful tool for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) to improve complex reasoning abilities. However, state-of-the-art policy optimization methods often suffer from high computational overhead and memory consumption, primarily due to the need for multiple generations per prompt and the reliance on critic networks or advantage estimates of the current policy. In this paper, we propose A*-PO, a novel two-stage policy optimization framework that directly approximates the optimal advantage function and enables efficient training of LLMs for reasoning tasks. In the first stage, we leverage offline sampling from a reference policy to estimate the optimal value function V*, eliminating the need for costly online value estimation. In the second stage, we perform on-policy updates using a simple least-squares regression loss with only a single generation per prompt. Theoretically, we establish performance guarantees and prove that the KL-regularized RL objective can be optimized without requiring complex exploration strategies. Empirically, A*-PO achieves competitive performance across a wide range of mathematical reasoning benchmarks, while reducing training time by up to 2times and peak memory usage by over 30% compared to PPO, GRPO, and REBEL. Implementation of A*-PO can be found at https://github.com/ZhaolinGao/A-PO.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Process Reward Modeling (PRM) is critical for complex reasoning and decision-making tasks where the accuracy of intermediate steps significantly influences the overall outcome. Existing PRM approaches, primarily framed as classification problems, employ cross-entropy loss to independently evaluate each step's correctness. This method can lead to suboptimal reward distribution and does not adequately address the interdependencies among steps. To address these limitations, we introduce the Process Q-value Model (PQM), a novel framework that redefines PRM in the context of a Markov Decision Process. PQM optimizes Q-value rankings based on a novel comparative loss function, enhancing the model's ability to capture the intricate dynamics among sequential decisions. This approach provides a more granular and theoretically grounded methodology for process rewards. Our extensive empirical evaluations across various sampling policies, language model backbones, and multi-step reasoning benchmarks show that PQM outperforms classification-based PRMs. The effectiveness of the comparative loss function is highlighted in our comprehensive ablation studies, confirming PQM's practical efficacy and theoretical advantage.

Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is both costly to plan over long horizons and challenging to obtain an accurate model of the environment. In this work, we combine the strengths of model-free and model-based methods. We use a learned task-oriented latent dynamics model for local trajectory optimization over a short horizon, and use a learned terminal value function to estimate long-term return, both of which are learned jointly by temporal difference learning. Our method, TD-MPC, achieves superior sample efficiency and asymptotic performance over prior work on both state and image-based continuous control tasks from DMControl and Meta-World. Code and video results are available at https://nicklashansen.github.io/td-mpc.

Modeling human preferences is crucial for aligning foundation models with human values. Traditional reward modeling methods, such as the Bradley-Terry (BT) reward model, fall short in expressiveness, particularly in addressing intransitive preferences. Although supervised pair preference models (PairPM) can express general preferences, their implementation is highly ad-hoc and cannot guarantee a consistent preference probability of compared pairs. Additionally, they impose high computational costs due to their quadratic query complexity when comparing multiple responses. In this paper, we introduce preference representation learning, an approach that embeds responses into a latent space to capture intricate preference structures efficiently, achieving linear query complexity. Additionally, we propose preference score-based General Preference Optimization (GPO), which generalizes reward-based reinforcement learning from human feedback. Experimental results show that our General Preference representation model (GPM) outperforms the BT reward model on the RewardBench benchmark with a margin of up to 5.6% and effectively models cyclic preferences where any BT reward model behaves like a random guess. Furthermore, evaluations on downstream tasks such as AlpacaEval2.0 and MT-Bench, following the language model post-training with GPO and our general preference model, reveal substantial performance improvements with margins up to 9.3%. These findings indicate that our method may enhance the alignment of foundation models with nuanced human values. The code is available at https://github.com/general-preference/general-preference-model.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Reward models are critical in techniques like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and Inference Scaling Laws, where they guide language model alignment and select optimal responses. Despite their importance, existing reward model benchmarks often evaluate models by asking them to distinguish between responses generated by models of varying power. However, this approach fails to assess reward models on subtle but critical content changes and variations in style, resulting in a low correlation with policy model performance. To this end, we introduce RM-Bench, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate reward models based on their sensitivity to subtle content differences and resistance to style biases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RM-Bench strongly correlates with policy model performance, making it a reliable reference for selecting reward models to align language models effectively. We evaluate nearly 40 reward models on RM-Bench. Our results reveal that even state-of-the-art models achieve an average performance of only 46.6%, which falls short of random-level accuracy (50%) when faced with style bias interference. These findings highlight the significant room for improvement in current reward models. Related code and data are available at https://github.com/THU-KEG/RM-Bench.

Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.

TD-learning is a foundation reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for value prediction. Critical to the accuracy of value predictions is the quality of state representations. In this work, we consider the question: how does end-to-end TD-learning impact the representation over time? Complementary to prior work, we provide a set of analysis that sheds further light on the representation dynamics under TD-learning. We first show that when the environments are reversible, end-to-end TD-learning strictly decreases the value approximation error over time. Under further assumptions on the environments, we can connect the representation dynamics with spectral decomposition over the transition matrix. This latter finding establishes fitting multiple value functions from randomly generated rewards as a useful auxiliary task for representation learning, as we empirically validate on both tabular and Atari game suites.

We study the problem of using low computational cost to automate the choices of learners and hyperparameters for an ad-hoc training dataset and error metric, by conducting trials of different configurations on the given training data. We investigate the joint impact of multiple factors on both trial cost and model error, and propose several design guidelines. Following them, we build a fast and lightweight library FLAML which optimizes for low computational resource in finding accurate models. FLAML integrates several simple but effective search strategies into an adaptive system. It significantly outperforms top-ranked AutoML libraries on a large open source AutoML benchmark under equal, or sometimes orders of magnitude smaller budget constraints.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

We study the design of loss functions for click-through rates (CTR) to optimize (social) welfare in advertising auctions. Existing works either only focus on CTR predictions without consideration of business objectives (e.g., welfare) in auctions or assume that the distribution over the participants' expected cost-per-impression (eCPM) is known a priori, then use various additional assumptions on the parametric form of the distribution to derive loss functions for predicting CTRs. In this work, we bring back the welfare objectives of ad auctions into CTR predictions and propose a novel weighted rankloss to train the CTR model. Compared to existing literature, our approach provides a provable guarantee on welfare but without assumptions on the eCPMs' distribution while also avoiding the intractability of naively applying existing learning-to-rank methods. Further, we propose a theoretically justifiable technique for calibrating the losses using labels generated from a teacher network, only assuming that the teacher network has bounded ell_2 generalization error. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed loss on synthetic and real-world data.

LLMs exhibit advanced reasoning capabilities, offering the potential to transform natural language questions into mathematical models. However, existing open-source datasets in operations research domain lack detailed annotations of the modeling process, such as variable definitions, focusing solely on objective values, which hinders reinforcement learning applications. To address this, we release the StructuredOR dataset, annotated with comprehensive labels that capture the complete mathematical modeling process. We further propose BPP-Search, a algorithm that integrates reinforcement learning into a tree-of-thought structure using Beam search, a Process reward model, and a pairwise Preference algorithm. This approach enables efficient exploration of tree structures, avoiding exhaustive search while improving accuracy. Extensive experiments on StructuredOR, NL4OPT, and MAMO-ComplexLP datasets show that BPP-Search significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. In tree-based reasoning, BPP-Search excels in accuracy and efficiency, enabling faster retrieval of correct solutions.

While most current approaches rely on further training techniques, such as fine-tuning or reinforcement learning, to enhance model capacities, model merging stands out for its ability of improving models without requiring any additional training. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for model merging based on low-rank estimation of task vectors without the need for access to the base model, named LoRE-Merging. Our approach is motivated by the observation that task vectors from fine-tuned models frequently exhibit a limited number of dominant singular values, making low-rank estimations less prone to interference. We implement the method by formulating the merging problem as an optimization problem. Extensive empirical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in mitigating interference and preserving task-specific information, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art performance in model merging techniques.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Language models can generate harmful and biased outputs and exhibit undesirable behavior according to a given cultural context. We propose a Process for Adapting Language Models to Society (PALMS) with Values-Targeted Datasets, an iterative process to significantly change model behavior by crafting and fine-tuning on a dataset that reflects a predetermined set of target values. We evaluate our process using three metrics: quantitative metrics with human evaluations that score output adherence to a target value, toxicity scoring on outputs; and qualitative metrics analyzing the most common word associated with a given social category. Through each iteration, we add additional training dataset examples based on observed shortcomings from evaluations. PALMS performs significantly better on all metrics compared to baseline and control models for a broad range of GPT-3 language model sizes without compromising capability integrity. We find that the effectiveness of PALMS increases with model size. We show that significantly adjusting language model behavior is feasible with a small, hand-curated dataset.

Influence functions provide crucial insights into model training, but existing methods suffer from large computational costs and limited generalization. Particularly, recent works have proposed various metrics and algorithms to calculate the influence of data using language models, which do not scale well with large models and datasets. This is because of the expensive forward and backward passes required for computation, substantial memory requirements to store large models, and poor generalization of influence estimates to new data. In this paper, we explore the use of small neural networks -- which we refer to as the InfluenceNetwork -- to estimate influence values, achieving up to 99% cost reduction. Our evaluation demonstrates that influence values can be estimated with models just 0.0027% the size of full language models (we use 7B and 8B versions). We apply our algorithm of estimating influence values (called NN-CIFT: Neural Networks for effiCient Instruction Fine-Tuning) to the downstream task of subset selection for general instruction fine-tuning. In our study, we include four state-of-the-art influence functions and show no compromise in performance, despite large speedups, between NN-CIFT and the original influence functions. We provide an in-depth hyperparameter analyses of NN-CIFT. The code for our method can be found here: https://github.com/agarwalishika/NN-CIFT.

Model-based reinforcement learning is a widely accepted solution for solving excessive sample demands. However, the predictions of the dynamics models are often not accurate enough, and the resulting bias may incur catastrophic decisions due to insufficient robustness. Therefore, it is highly desired to investigate how to improve the robustness of model-based RL algorithms while maintaining high sampling efficiency. In this paper, we propose Model-Based Double-dropout Planning (MBDP) to balance robustness and efficiency. MBDP consists of two kinds of dropout mechanisms, where the rollout-dropout aims to improve the robustness with a small cost of sample efficiency, while the model-dropout is designed to compensate for the lost efficiency at a slight expense of robustness. By combining them in a complementary way, MBDP provides a flexible control mechanism to meet different demands of robustness and efficiency by tuning two corresponding dropout ratios. The effectiveness of MBDP is demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training is crucial for LLM alignment and reasoning, but existing policy-based methods, such as PPO and DPO, can fall short of fixing shortcuts inherited from pre-training. In this work, we introduce Qsharp, a value-based algorithm for KL-regularized RL that guides the reference policy using the optimal regularized Q function. We propose to learn the optimal Q function using distributional RL on an aggregated online dataset. Unlike prior value-based baselines that guide the model using unregularized Q-values, our method is theoretically principled and provably learns the optimal policy for the KL-regularized RL problem. Empirically, Qsharp outperforms prior baselines in math reasoning benchmarks while maintaining a smaller KL divergence to the reference policy. Theoretically, we establish a reduction from KL-regularized RL to no-regret online learning, providing the first bounds for deterministic MDPs under only realizability. Thanks to distributional RL, our bounds are also variance-dependent and converge faster when the reference policy has small variance. In sum, our results highlight Qsharp as an effective approach for post-training LLMs, offering both improved performance and theoretical guarantees. The code can be found at https://github.com/jinpz/q_sharp.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Given the broad capabilities of large language models, it should be possible to work towards a general-purpose, text-based assistant that is aligned with human values, meaning that it is helpful, honest, and harmless. As an initial foray in this direction we study simple baseline techniques and evaluations, such as prompting. We find that the benefits from modest interventions increase with model size, generalize to a variety of alignment evaluations, and do not compromise the performance of large models. Next we investigate scaling trends for several training objectives relevant to alignment, comparing imitation learning, binary discrimination, and ranked preference modeling. We find that ranked preference modeling performs much better than imitation learning, and often scales more favorably with model size. In contrast, binary discrimination typically performs and scales very similarly to imitation learning. Finally we study a `preference model pre-training' stage of training, with the goal of improving sample efficiency when finetuning on human preferences.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a compelling approach for training Large Language Models (LLMs) to adhere to human preferences. However, the performance of DPO is sensitive to the fine-tuning of its trade-off parameter beta, as well as to the quality of the preference data. We analyze the impact of beta and data quality on DPO, uncovering that optimal beta values vary with the informativeness of pairwise data. Addressing the limitations of static beta values, we introduce a novel framework that dynamically calibrates beta at the batch level, informed by data quality considerations. Additionally, our method incorporates beta-guided data filtering to safeguard against the influence of outliers. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that our dynamic beta adjustment technique significantly improves DPO's performance across a range of models and datasets, offering a more robust and adaptable training paradigm for aligning LLMs with human feedback. The code is available at https://github.com/junkangwu/beta-DPO.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

As large language models (LLMs) grow more powerful, concerns around potential harms like toxicity, unfairness, and hallucination threaten user trust. Ensuring beneficial alignment of LLMs with human values through model alignment is thus critical yet challenging, requiring a deeper understanding of LLM behaviors and mechanisms. We propose opening the black box of LLMs through a framework of holistic interpretability encompassing complementary bottom-up and top-down perspectives. The bottom-up view, enabled by mechanistic interpretability, focuses on component functionalities and training dynamics. The top-down view utilizes representation engineering to analyze behaviors through hidden representations. In this paper, we review the landscape around mechanistic interpretability and representation engineering, summarizing approaches, discussing limitations and applications, and outlining future challenges in using these techniques to achieve ethical, honest, and reliable reasoning aligned with human values.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

MDPs with low-rank transitions -- that is, the transition matrix can be factored into the product of two matrices, left and right -- is a highly representative structure that enables tractable learning. The left matrix enables expressive function approximation for value-based learning and has been studied extensively. In this work, we instead investigate sample-efficient learning with density features, i.e., the right matrix, which induce powerful models for state-occupancy distributions. This setting not only sheds light on leveraging unsupervised learning in RL, but also enables plug-in solutions for convex RL. In the offline setting, we propose an algorithm for off-policy estimation of occupancies that can handle non-exploratory data. Using this as a subroutine, we further devise an online algorithm that constructs exploratory data distributions in a level-by-level manner. As a central technical challenge, the additive error of occupancy estimation is incompatible with the multiplicative definition of data coverage. In the absence of strong assumptions like reachability, this incompatibility easily leads to exponential error blow-up, which we overcome via novel technical tools. Our results also readily extend to the representation learning setting, when the density features are unknown and must be learned from an exponentially large candidate set.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Reward models (RMs) play a crucial role in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback by serving as proxies for human preferences in aligning large language models. In this paper, we identify a model preference bias in RMs, where they systematically assign disproportionately high scores to responses from certain policy models. This bias distorts ranking evaluations and leads to unfair judgments. To address this issue, we propose a calibration method named CHatbot Arena calibrated Reward Modeling (CHARM) that leverages Elo scores from the Chatbot Arena leaderboard to mitigate RM overvaluation. We also introduce a Mismatch Degree metric to measure this preference bias. Our approach is computationally efficient, requiring only a small preference dataset for continued training of the RM. We conduct extensive experiments on reward model benchmarks and human preference alignment. Results demonstrate that our calibrated RMs (1) achieve improved evaluation accuracy on RM-Bench and the Chat-Hard domain of RewardBench, and (2) exhibit a stronger correlation with human preferences by producing scores more closely aligned with Elo rankings. By mitigating model preference bias, our method provides a generalizable and efficient solution for building fairer and more reliable reward models.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Model-based reinforcement learning promises to learn an optimal policy from fewer interactions with the environment compared to model-free reinforcement learning by learning an intermediate model of the environment in order to predict future interactions. When predicting a sequence of interactions, the rollout length, which limits the prediction horizon, is a critical hyperparameter as accuracy of the predictions diminishes in the regions that are further away from real experience. As a result, with a longer rollout length, an overall worse policy is learned in the long run. Thus, the hyperparameter provides a trade-off between quality and efficiency. In this work, we frame the problem of tuning the rollout length as a meta-level sequential decision-making problem that optimizes the final policy learned by model-based reinforcement learning given a fixed budget of environment interactions by adapting the hyperparameter dynamically based on feedback from the learning process, such as accuracy of the model and the remaining budget of interactions. We use model-free deep reinforcement learning to solve the meta-level decision problem and demonstrate that our approach outperforms common heuristic baselines on two well-known reinforcement learning environments.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed via public-facing interfaces to interact with millions of users, each with diverse preferences. Despite this, preference tuning of LLMs predominantly relies on reward models trained using binary judgments where annotators select the preferred choice out of pairs of model outputs. In this work, we argue that this reliance on binary choices does not capture the broader, aggregate preferences of the target user in real-world tasks. We propose a taxonomy that identifies two dimensions of subjectivity where different users disagree on the preferred output-namely, the Plurality of Responses to Prompts, where prompts allow for multiple correct answers, and the Indistinguishability of Responses, where candidate outputs are paraphrases of each other. We show that reward models correlate weakly with user preferences in these cases. As a first step to address this issue, we introduce a simple yet effective method that augments existing binary preference datasets with synthetic preference judgments to estimate potential user disagreement. Incorporating these via a margin term as a form of regularization during model training yields predictions that better align with the aggregate user preferences.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

When trying to solve a computational problem, we are often faced with a choice between algorithms that are guaranteed to return the right answer but differ in their runtime distributions (e.g., SAT solvers, sorting algorithms). This paper aims to lay theoretical foundations for such choices by formalizing preferences over runtime distributions. It might seem that we should simply prefer the algorithm that minimizes expected runtime. However, such preferences would be driven by exactly how slow our algorithm is on bad inputs, whereas in practice we are typically willing to cut off occasional, sufficiently long runs before they finish. We propose a principled alternative, taking a utility-theoretic approach to characterize the scoring functions that describe preferences over algorithms. These functions depend on the way our value for solving our problem decreases with time and on the distribution from which captimes are drawn. We describe examples of realistic utility functions and show how to leverage a maximum-entropy approach for modeling underspecified captime distributions. Finally, we show how to efficiently estimate an algorithm's expected utility from runtime samples.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) holds the promise of sample-efficient learning by utilizing a world model, which models how the environment works and typically encompasses components for two tasks: observation modeling and reward modeling. In this paper, through a dedicated empirical investigation, we gain a deeper understanding of the role each task plays in world models and uncover the overlooked potential of sample-efficient MBRL by mitigating the domination of either observation or reward modeling. Our key insight is that while prevalent approaches of explicit MBRL attempt to restore abundant details of the environment via observation models, it is difficult due to the environment's complexity and limited model capacity. On the other hand, reward models, while dominating implicit MBRL and adept at learning compact task-centric dynamics, are inadequate for sample-efficient learning without richer learning signals. Motivated by these insights and discoveries, we propose a simple yet effective approach, HarmonyDream, which automatically adjusts loss coefficients to maintain task harmonization, i.e. a dynamic equilibrium between the two tasks in world model learning. Our experiments show that the base MBRL method equipped with HarmonyDream gains 10%-69% absolute performance boosts on visual robotic tasks and sets a new state-of-the-art result on the Atari 100K benchmark.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a promising route to sample-efficient policy optimization. However, a known vulnerability of reconstruction-based MBRL consists of scenarios in which detailed aspects of the world are highly predictable, but irrelevant to learning a good policy. Such scenarios can lead the model to exhaust its capacity on meaningless content, at the cost of neglecting important environment dynamics. While existing approaches attempt to solve this problem, we highlight its continuing impact on leading MBRL methods -- including DreamerV3 and DreamerPro -- with a novel environment where background distractions are intricate, predictable, and useless for planning future actions. To address this challenge we develop a method for focusing the capacity of the world model through synergy of a pretrained segmentation model, a task-aware reconstruction loss, and adversarial learning. Our method outperforms a variety of other approaches designed to reduce the impact of distractors, and is an advance towards robust model-based reinforcement learning.

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance tau. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) setting. To extend CVaR RL to settings where state space is large, function approximation must be deployed. We study CVaR RL in low-rank MDPs with nonlinear function approximation. Low-rank MDPs assume the underlying transition kernel admits a low-rank decomposition, but unlike prior linear models, low-rank MDPs do not assume the feature or state-action representation is known. We propose a novel Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) bonus-driven algorithm to carefully balance the interplay between exploration, exploitation, and representation learning in CVaR RL. We prove that our algorithm achieves a sample complexity of Oleft(H^7 A^2 d^4{tau^2 epsilon^2}right) to yield an epsilon-optimal CVaR, where H is the length of each episode, A is the capacity of action space, and d is the dimension of representations. Computational-wise, we design a novel discretized Least-Squares Value Iteration (LSVI) algorithm for the CVaR objective as the planning oracle and show that we can find the near-optimal policy in a polynomial running time with a Maximum Likelihood Estimation oracle. To our knowledge, this is the first provably efficient CVaR RL algorithm in low-rank MDPs.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

We study infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) in the context of general function approximation. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithmic framework named Local-fitted Optimization with OPtimism (LOOP), which incorporates both model-based and value-based incarnations. In particular, LOOP features a novel construction of confidence sets and a low-switching policy updating scheme, which are tailored to the average-reward and function approximation setting. Moreover, for AMDPs, we propose a novel complexity measure -- average-reward generalized eluder coefficient (AGEC) -- which captures the challenge of exploration in AMDPs with general function approximation. Such a complexity measure encompasses almost all previously known tractable AMDP models, such as linear AMDPs and linear mixture AMDPs, and also includes newly identified cases such as kernel AMDPs and AMDPs with Bellman eluder dimensions. Using AGEC, we prove that LOOP achieves a sublinear mathcal{O}(poly(d, sp(V^*)) Tbeta ) regret, where d and beta correspond to AGEC and log-covering number of the hypothesis class respectively, sp(V^*) is the span of the optimal state bias function, T denotes the number of steps, and mathcal{O} (cdot) omits logarithmic factors. When specialized to concrete AMDP models, our regret bounds are comparable to those established by the existing algorithms designed specifically for these special cases. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive theoretical framework capable of handling nearly all AMDPs.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Training reinforcement learning (RL) agents on robotic tasks typically requires a large number of training samples. This is because training data often consists of noisy trajectories, whether from exploration or human-collected demonstrations, making it difficult to learn value functions that understand the effect of taking each action. On the other hand, recent behavior-cloning (BC) approaches have shown that predicting a sequence of actions enables policies to effectively approximate noisy, multi-modal distributions of expert demonstrations. Can we use a similar idea for improving RL on robotic tasks? In this paper, we introduce a novel RL algorithm that learns a critic network that outputs Q-values over a sequence of actions. By explicitly training the value functions to learn the consequence of executing a series of current and future actions, our algorithm allows for learning useful value functions from noisy trajectories. We study our algorithm across various setups with sparse and dense rewards, and with or without demonstrations, spanning mobile bi-manual manipulation, whole-body control, and tabletop manipulation tasks from BiGym, HumanoidBench, and RLBench. We find that, by learning the critic network with action sequences, our algorithm outperforms various RL and BC baselines, in particular on challenging humanoid control tasks.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

In value-based reinforcement learning methods such as deep Q-learning, function approximation errors are known to lead to overestimated value estimates and suboptimal policies. We show that this problem persists in an actor-critic setting and propose novel mechanisms to minimize its effects on both the actor and the critic. Our algorithm builds on Double Q-learning, by taking the minimum value between a pair of critics to limit overestimation. We draw the connection between target networks and overestimation bias, and suggest delaying policy updates to reduce per-update error and further improve performance. We evaluate our method on the suite of OpenAI gym tasks, outperforming the state of the art in every environment tested.

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based methods provide promising approaches for generating synthetic data to enhance the self-training of Large Language Model (LLM) based multi-agent systems (MAS). These methods leverage Q-values to estimate individual agent contributions. However, relying solely on Q-values to identify informative data may misalign with the data synthesis objective, as the focus should be on selecting data that best enhances model training. To address this discrepancy, we propose Data Influence-oriented Tree Search (DITS), a novel framework that incorporates influence scores to guide both tree search and data selection. By leveraging influence scores, we effectively identify the most impactful data for system improvement, thereby enhancing model performance. Furthermore, we derive influence score estimation methods tailored for non-differentiable metrics, significantly reducing computational overhead by utilizing inference computations. Extensive experiments on eight multi-agent datasets demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed methods. Notably, our findings reveal that allocating more inference resources to estimate influence scores, rather than Q-values, during data synthesis can more effectively and efficiently enhance model training.

Recent studies have revealed a number of pathologies of neural machine translation (NMT) systems. Hypotheses explaining these mostly suggest there is something fundamentally wrong with NMT as a model or its training algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Most of this evidence was gathered using maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding, a decision rule aimed at identifying the highest-scoring translation, i.e. the mode. We argue that the evidence corroborates the inadequacy of MAP decoding more than casts doubt on the model and its training algorithm. In this work, we show that translation distributions do reproduce various statistics of the data well, but that beam search strays from such statistics. We show that some of the known pathologies and biases of NMT are due to MAP decoding and not to NMT's statistical assumptions nor MLE. In particular, we show that the most likely translations under the model accumulate so little probability mass that the mode can be considered essentially arbitrary. We therefore advocate for the use of decision rules that take into account the translation distribution holistically. We show that an approximation to minimum Bayes risk decoding gives competitive results confirming that NMT models do capture important aspects of translation well in expectation.

Model-based reinforcement learning methods often use learning only for the purpose of estimating an approximate dynamics model, offloading the rest of the decision-making work to classical trajectory optimizers. While conceptually simple, this combination has a number of empirical shortcomings, suggesting that learned models may not be well-suited to standard trajectory optimization. In this paper, we consider what it would look like to fold as much of the trajectory optimization pipeline as possible into the modeling problem, such that sampling from the model and planning with it become nearly identical. The core of our technical approach lies in a diffusion probabilistic model that plans by iteratively denoising trajectories. We show how classifier-guided sampling and image inpainting can be reinterpreted as coherent planning strategies, explore the unusual and useful properties of diffusion-based planning methods, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in control settings that emphasize long-horizon decision-making and test-time flexibility.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.

A fairly reliable trend in deep reinforcement learning is that the performance scales with the number of parameters, provided a complimentary scaling in amount of training data. As the appetite for large models increases, it is imperative to address, sooner than later, the potential problem of running out of high-quality demonstrations. In this case, instead of collecting only new data via costly human demonstrations or risking a simulation-to-real transfer with uncertain effects, it would be beneficial to leverage vast amounts of readily-available low-quality data. Since classical control algorithms such as behavior cloning or temporal difference learning cannot be used on reward-free or action-free data out-of-the-box, this solution warrants novel training paradigms for continuous control. We propose a simple algorithm called Diffused Value Function (DVF), which learns a joint multi-step model of the environment-robot interaction dynamics using a diffusion model. This model can be efficiently learned from state sequences (i.e., without access to reward functions nor actions), and subsequently used to estimate the value of each action out-of-the-box. We show how DVF can be used to efficiently capture the state visitation measure for multiple controllers, and show promising qualitative and quantitative results on challenging robotics benchmarks.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) methodologies enforce constraints on the policy to adhere closely to the behavior policy, thereby stabilizing value learning and mitigating the selection of out-of-distribution (OOD) actions during test time. Conventional approaches apply identical constraints for both value learning and test time inference. However, our findings indicate that the constraints suitable for value estimation may in fact be excessively restrictive for action selection during test time. To address this issue, we propose a Mildly Constrained Evaluation Policy (MCEP) for test time inference with a more constrained target policy for value estimation. Since the target policy has been adopted in various prior approaches, MCEP can be seamlessly integrated with them as a plug-in. We instantiate MCEP based on TD3-BC [Fujimoto and Gu, 2021] and AWAC [Nair et al., 2020] algorithms. The empirical results on MuJoCo locomotion tasks show that the MCEP significantly outperforms the target policy and achieves competitive results to state-of-the-art offline RL methods. The codes are open-sourced at https://github.com/egg-west/MCEP.git.

The large-scale training of multi-modal models on data scraped from the web has shown outstanding utility in infusing these models with the required world knowledge to perform effectively on multiple downstream tasks. However, one downside of scraping data from the web can be the potential sacrifice of the benchmarks on which the abilities of these models are often evaluated. To safeguard against test data contamination and to truly test the abilities of these foundation models we propose LiveXiv: A scalable evolving live benchmark based on scientific ArXiv papers. LiveXiv accesses domain-specific manuscripts at any given timestamp and proposes to automatically generate visual question-answer pairs (VQA). This is done without any human-in-the-loop, using the multi-modal content in the manuscripts, like graphs, charts, and tables. Moreover, we introduce an efficient evaluation approach that estimates the performance of all models on the evolving benchmark using evaluations of only a subset of models. This significantly reduces the overall evaluation cost. We benchmark multiple open and proprietary Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) on the first version of our benchmark, showing its challenging nature and exposing the models true abilities, avoiding contamination. Lastly, in our commitment to high quality, we have collected and evaluated a manually verified subset. By comparing its overall results to our automatic annotations, we have found that the performance variance is indeed minimal (<2.5%). Our dataset is available online on HuggingFace, and our code will be available here.

Compared to the wide array of advanced Monte Carlo methods supported by modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), PPL support for variational inference (VI) is less developed: users are typically limited to a predefined selection of variational objectives and gradient estimators, which are implemented monolithically (and without formal correctness arguments) in PPL backends. In this paper, we propose a more modular approach to supporting variational inference in PPLs, based on compositional program transformation. In our approach, variational objectives are expressed as programs, that may employ first-class constructs for computing densities of and expected values under user-defined models and variational families. We then transform these programs systematically into unbiased gradient estimators for optimizing the objectives they define. Our design enables modular reasoning about many interacting concerns, including automatic differentiation, density accumulation, tracing, and the application of unbiased gradient estimation strategies. Additionally, relative to existing support for VI in PPLs, our design increases expressiveness along three axes: (1) it supports an open-ended set of user-defined variational objectives, rather than a fixed menu of options; (2) it supports a combinatorial space of gradient estimation strategies, many not automated by today's PPLs; and (3) it supports a broader class of models and variational families, because it supports constructs for approximate marginalization and normalization (previously introduced only for Monte Carlo inference). We implement our approach in an extension to the Gen probabilistic programming system (genjax.vi, implemented in JAX), and evaluate on several deep generative modeling tasks, showing minimal performance overhead vs. hand-coded implementations and performance competitive with well-established open-source PPLs.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Despite notable advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), most state-of-the-art models have not undergone thorough alignment with human preferences. This gap exists because current alignment research has primarily achieved progress in specific areas (e.g., hallucination reduction), while the broader question of whether aligning models with human preferences can systematically enhance MLLM capability remains largely unexplored. To this end, we introduce MM-RLHF, a dataset containing 120k fine-grained, human-annotated preference comparison pairs. This dataset represents a substantial advancement over existing resources, offering superior size, diversity, annotation granularity, and quality. Leveraging this dataset, we propose several key innovations to improve both the quality of reward models and the efficiency of alignment algorithms. Notably, we introduce a Critique-Based Reward Model, which generates critiques of model outputs before assigning scores, offering enhanced interpretability and more informative feedback compared to traditional scalar reward mechanisms. Additionally, we propose Dynamic Reward Scaling, a method that adjusts the loss weight of each sample according to the reward signal, thereby optimizing the use of high-quality comparison pairs. Our approach is rigorously evaluated across 10 distinct dimensions and 27 benchmarks, with results demonstrating significant and consistent improvements in model performance. Specifically, fine-tuning LLaVA-ov-7B with MM-RLHF and our alignment algorithm leads to a 19.5% increase in conversational abilities and a 60% improvement in safety. We have open-sourced the preference dataset, reward model, training and evaluation code, as well as reward modeling and safety benchmarks. For more details, please visit our project page: https://mm-rlhf.github.io.

The recent proliferation of research into transformer based natural language processing has led to a number of studies which attempt to detect the presence of human-like cognitive behavior in the models. We contend that, as is true of human psychology, the investigation of cognitive behavior in language models must be conducted in an appropriate population of an appropriate size for the results to be meaningful. We leverage work in uncertainty estimation in a novel approach to efficiently construct experimental populations. The resultant tool, PopulationLM, has been made open source. We provide theoretical grounding in the uncertainty estimation literature and motivation from current cognitive work regarding language models. We discuss the methodological lessons from other scientific communities and attempt to demonstrate their application to two artificial population studies. Through population based experimentation we find that language models exhibit behavior consistent with typicality effects among categories highly represented in training. However, we find that language models don't tend to exhibit structural priming effects. Generally, our results show that single models tend to over estimate the presence of cognitive behaviors in neural models.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are deployed more widely, customization with respect to vocabulary, style and character becomes more important. In this work we introduce model arithmetic, a novel inference framework for composing and biasing LLMs without the need for model (re)training or highly specific datasets. In addition, the framework allows for more precise control of generated text than direct prompting and prior controlled text generation (CTG) techniques. Using model arithmetic, we can express prior CTG techniques as simple formulas and naturally extend them to new and more effective formulations. Further, we show that speculative sampling, a technique for efficient LLM sampling, extends to our setting. This enables highly efficient text generation with multiple composed models with only marginal overhead over a single model. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that model arithmetic allows fine-grained control of generated text while outperforming state-of-the-art on the task of toxicity reduction.

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) underscores the pressing need for evaluation methods. Existing works primarily rely on external evaluators, focusing on training and prompting strategies. However, a crucial aspect - model-aware glass-box features - is overlooked. In this study, we explore the utility of glass-box features under the scenario of self-evaluation, namely applying an LLM to evaluate its own output. We investigate various glass-box feature groups and discovered that the softmax distribution serves as a reliable indicator for quality evaluation. Furthermore, we propose two strategies to enhance the evaluation by incorporating features derived from references. Experimental results on public benchmarks validate the feasibility of self-evaluation of LLMs using glass-box features.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful approach to complex decision making. However, one issue that limits its practical application is its brittleness, sometimes failing to train in the presence of small changes in the environment. Motivated by the success of zero-shot transfer-where pre-trained models perform well on related tasks-we consider the problem of selecting a good set of training tasks to maximize generalization performance across a range of tasks. Given the high cost of training, it is critical to select training tasks strategically, but not well understood how to do so. We hence introduce Model-Based Transfer Learning (MBTL), which layers on top of existing RL methods to effectively solve contextual RL problems. MBTL models the generalization performance in two parts: 1) the performance set point, modeled using Gaussian processes, and 2) performance loss (generalization gap), modeled as a linear function of contextual similarity. MBTL combines these two pieces of information within a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework to strategically select training tasks. We show theoretically that the method exhibits sublinear regret in the number of training tasks and discuss conditions to further tighten regret bounds. We experimentally validate our methods using urban traffic and standard continuous control benchmarks. The experimental results suggest that MBTL can achieve up to 50x improved sample efficiency compared with canonical independent training and multi-task training. Further experiments demonstrate the efficacy of BO and the insensitivity to the underlying RL algorithm and hyperparameters. This work lays the foundations for investigating explicit modeling of generalization, thereby enabling principled yet effective methods for contextual RL.

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

Large language models (LLMs) often struggle with maintaining accuracy across a sequence of intermediate reasoning steps in mathematical reasoning, leading to error propagation that undermines the final result. The current methodology to mitigate this issue primarily involves using a verifier model to assess the correctness of generated solution candidates, focusing either on the overall reasoning path or on an incomplete reasoning path. By rethinking this approach, we argue that assessing potentials of incomplete reasoning paths could be more advantageous as it guides towards correct final answers, transforming the task into a planning problem. Our proposed verifier, the Outcome-supervision Value Model (OVM), employs outcome supervision for training, offering an efficient and intuitive method for planning by prioritizing steps that lead to accurate conclusions over mere per-step correctness. Furthermore, the OVM eschews the need for labor-intensive annotations on step-level correctness, enhancing its scalability. Our experiments on two multi-step mathematical reasoning datasets, GSM8K and Game of 24, demonstrate the superior performance of the OVM model. Notably, in GSM8K, our OVM-7B model achieves state-of-the-art results among LLMs up to 13B parameters; especially it does not utilize GPT-4 or code execution. These findings offer a novel perspective on the role of outcome supervision in training verifiers for multi-step reasoning tasks and provide theoretical justification for its advantage in value estimation for planning.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) emerge as a promising approach for process supervision in mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs), which aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes. However, the development of effective PRMs faces significant challenges, particularly in data annotation and evaluation methodologies. In this paper, through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that commonly used Monte Carlo (MC) estimation-based data synthesis for PRMs typically yields inferior performance and generalization compared to LLM-as-a-judge and human annotation methods. MC estimation relies on completion models to evaluate current-step correctness, leading to inaccurate step verification. Furthermore, we identify potential biases in conventional Best-of-N (BoN) evaluation strategies for PRMs: (1) The unreliable policy models generate responses with correct answers but flawed processes, leading to a misalignment between the evaluation criteria of BoN and the PRM objectives of process verification. (2) The tolerance of PRMs of such responses leads to inflated BoN scores. (3) Existing PRMs have a significant proportion of minimum scores concentrated on the final answer steps, revealing the shift from process to outcome-based assessment in BoN Optimized PRMs. To address these challenges, we develop a consensus filtering mechanism that effectively integrates MC estimation with LLM-as-a-judge and advocates a more comprehensive evaluation framework that combines response-level and step-level metrics. Based on the mechanisms, we significantly improve both model performance and data efficiency in the BoN evaluation and the step-wise error identification task. Finally, we release a new state-of-the-art PRM that outperforms existing open-source alternatives and provides practical guidelines for future research in building process supervision models.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) gain widespread practical application, providing the model family of different parameter sizes has become standard practice to address diverse computational requirements. Conventionally, each model in a family is trained independently, resulting in computational costs that scale additively with the number of models. We propose an efficient method for constructing the model family through progressive training, where smaller models are incrementally expanded to larger sizes to create a complete model family. Through extensive experiments with a model family ranging from 1B to 8B parameters, we demonstrate that our method reduces computational costs by approximately 25% while maintaining comparable performance to independently trained models. Furthermore, by strategically adjusting maximum learning rates based on model size, our method outperforms the independent training across various metrics. Beyond performance gains, our approach offers an additional advantage: models in our family tend to yield more consistent behavior across different model sizes.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) of contextual bandit policies for large discrete action spaces where conventional importance-weighting approaches suffer from excessive variance. To circumvent this variance issue, we propose a new estimator, called OffCEM, that is based on the conjunct effect model (CEM), a novel decomposition of the causal effect into a cluster effect and a residual effect. OffCEM applies importance weighting only to action clusters and addresses the residual causal effect through model-based reward estimation. We show that the proposed estimator is unbiased under a new condition, called local correctness, which only requires that the residual-effect model preserves the relative expected reward differences of the actions within each cluster. To best leverage the CEM and local correctness, we also propose a new two-step procedure for performing model-based estimation that minimizes bias in the first step and variance in the second step. We find that the resulting OffCEM estimator substantially improves bias and variance compared to a range of conventional estimators. Experiments demonstrate that OffCEM provides substantial improvements in OPE especially in the presence of many actions.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable abilities in representation learning for program synthesis and understanding tasks. The quality of the learned representations appears to be dictated by the neural scaling laws as a function of the number of model parameters and observations, while imposing upper bounds on the model performance by the amount of available data and compute, which is costly. In this study, we attempt to render the training of LLMs for program synthesis more efficient by unifying four key components: (1) model architectures, (2) learning methods, (3) infill sampling, and, (4) data distributions. Specifically, for the model architecture, we attempt to unify encoder and decoder-based models into a single prefix-LM. For learning methods, (i) causal language modeling, (ii) span corruption, (iii) infilling are unified into a simple learning algorithm. For infill sampling, we explore the claim of a "free lunch" hypothesis. For data distributions, the effect of a mixture distribution of programming and natural languages on model performance is explored. We conduct a comprehensive series of empirical experiments on 1B LLMs, for which failures and successes of this exploration are distilled into four lessons. We will provide a final recipe for training and release CodeGen2 models in size 1B, 3.7B, 7B, and, 16B parameters, along with the training framework as open-source: https://github.com/salesforce/CodeGen2.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

Policy optimization methods are powerful algorithms in Reinforcement Learning (RL) for their flexibility to deal with policy parameterization and ability to handle model misspecification. However, these methods usually suffer from slow convergence rates and poor sample complexity. Hence it is important to design provably sample efficient algorithms for policy optimization. Yet, recent advances for this problems have only been successful in tabular and linear setting, whose benign structures cannot be generalized to non-linearly parameterized policies. In this paper, we address this problem by leveraging recent advances in value-based algorithms, including bounded eluder-dimension and online sensitivity sampling, to design a low-switching sample-efficient policy optimization algorithm, LPO, with general non-linear function approximation. We show that, our algorithm obtains an varepsilon-optimal policy with only O(text{poly(d)}{varepsilon^3}) samples, where varepsilon is the suboptimality gap and d is a complexity measure of the function class approximating the policy. This drastically improves previously best-known sample bound for policy optimization algorithms, O(text{poly(d)}{varepsilon^8}). Moreover, we empirically test our theory with deep neural nets to show the benefits of the theoretical inspiration.

We study the cost of overfitting in noisy kernel ridge regression (KRR), which we define as the ratio between the test error of the interpolating ridgeless model and the test error of the optimally-tuned model. We take an "agnostic" view in the following sense: we consider the cost as a function of sample size for any target function, even if the sample size is not large enough for consistency or the target is outside the RKHS. We analyze the cost of overfitting under a Gaussian universality ansatz using recently derived (non-rigorous) risk estimates in terms of the task eigenstructure. Our analysis provides a more refined characterization of benign, tempered and catastrophic overfitting (cf. Mallinar et al. 2022).

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of LLMs as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both an LLM and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for an LLM to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that an LLM pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining LLMs on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that LLMs used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a dominating strategy in steering Language Models (LMs) towards human values/goals. The key to the strategy is employing a reward model ({varphi}) which can reflect a latent reward model with humans. While this strategy has proven to be effective, the training methodology requires a lot of human preference annotation (usually of the order of tens of thousands) to train {varphi}. Such large-scale preference annotations can be achievable if the reward model can be ubiquitously used. However, human values/goals are subjective and depend on the nature of the task. This poses a challenge in collecting diverse preferences for downstream applications. To address this, we propose a novel methodology to infuse domain knowledge into {varphi}, which reduces the size of preference annotation required. We validate our approach in E-Commerce Opinion Summarization, with a significant reduction in dataset size (just 940 samples) while advancing the state-of-the-art. Our contributions include a novel Reward Modelling technique, a new dataset (PromptOpinSumm) for Opinion Summarization, and a human preference dataset (OpinPref). The proposed methodology opens avenues for efficient RLHF, making it more adaptable to diverse applications with varying human values. We release the artifacts for usage under MIT License.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) offers a solution to the data inefficiency that plagues most model-free RL algorithms. However, learning a robust world model often requires complex and deep architectures, which are computationally expensive and challenging to train. Within the world model, sequence models play a critical role in accurate predictions, and various architectures have been explored, each with its own challenges. Currently, recurrent neural network (RNN)-based world models struggle with vanishing gradients and capturing long-term dependencies. Transformers, on the other hand, suffer from the quadratic memory and computational complexity of self-attention mechanisms, scaling as O(n^2), where n is the sequence length. To address these challenges, we propose a state space model (SSM)-based world model, Drama, specifically leveraging Mamba, that achieves O(n) memory and computational complexity while effectively capturing long-term dependencies and enabling efficient training with longer sequences. We also introduce a novel sampling method to mitigate the suboptimality caused by an incorrect world model in the early training stages. Combining these techniques, Drama achieves a normalised score on the Atari100k benchmark that is competitive with other state-of-the-art (SOTA) model-based RL algorithms, using only a 7 million-parameter world model. Drama is accessible and trainable on off-the-shelf hardware, such as a standard laptop. Our code is available at https://github.com/realwenlongwang/Drama.git.

Adapting a pretrained diffusion model to new objectives at inference time remains an open problem in generative modeling. Existing steering methods suffer from inaccurate value estimation, especially at high noise levels, which biases guidance. Moreover, information from past runs is not reused to improve sample quality, resulting in inefficient use of compute. Inspired by the success of Monte Carlo Tree Search, we address these limitations by casting inference-time alignment as a search problem that reuses past computations. We introduce a tree-based approach that samples from the reward-aligned target density by propagating terminal rewards back through the diffusion chain and iteratively refining value estimates with each additional generation. Our proposed method, Diffusion Tree Sampling (DTS), produces asymptotically exact samples from the target distribution in the limit of infinite rollouts, and its greedy variant, Diffusion Tree Search (DTS^star), performs a global search for high reward samples. On MNIST and CIFAR-10 class-conditional generation, DTS matches the FID of the best-performing baseline with up to 10times less compute. In text-to-image generation and language completion tasks, DTS^star effectively searches for high reward samples that match best-of-N with up to 5times less compute. By reusing information from previous generations, we get an anytime algorithm that turns additional compute into steadily better samples, providing a scalable approach for inference-time alignment of diffusion models.

We study the process through which reasoning models trained with reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards (RLVR) can learn to solve new problems. We find that RLVR drives performance in two main ways: (1) by compressing pass@k into pass@1 and (2) via "capability gain" in which models learn to solve new problems that they previously could not solve even at high k. We find that while capability gain exists across model scales, learning to solve new problems is primarily driven through self-distillation. We demonstrate these findings across model scales ranging from 0.5B to 72B parameters on >500,000 reasoning problems with prompts and verifiable final answers across math, science, and code domains. We further show that we can significantly improve pass@k rates by leveraging natural language guidance for the model to consider within context while still requiring the model to derive a solution chain from scratch. Based of these insights, we derive Guide -- a new class of online training algorithms. Guide adaptively incorporates hints into the model's context on problems for which all rollouts were initially incorrect and adjusts the importance sampling ratio for the "off-policy" trajectories in order to optimize the policy for contexts in which the hints are no longer present. We describe variants of Guide for GRPO and PPO and empirically show that Guide-GRPO on 7B and 32B parameter models improves generalization over its vanilla counterpart with up to 4% macro-average improvement across math benchmarks. We include careful ablations to analyze Guide's components and theoretically analyze Guide's learning efficiency.

The ubiquity of large-scale Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) is on the rise, sparking interest in model hubs, and dedicated platforms for hosting PTMs. Despite this trend, a comprehensive exploration of the challenges that users encounter and how the community leverages PTMs remains lacking. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive mixed-methods empirical study by focusing on discussion forums and the model hub of HuggingFace, the largest public model hub. Based on our qualitative analysis, we present a taxonomy of the challenges and benefits associated with PTM reuse within this community. We then conduct a quantitative study to track model-type trends and model documentation evolution over time. Our findings highlight prevalent challenges such as limited guidance for beginner users, struggles with model output comprehensibility in training or inference, and a lack of model understanding. We also identified interesting trends among models where some models maintain high upload rates despite a decline in topics related to them. Additionally, we found that despite the introduction of model documentation tools, its quantity has not increased over time, leading to difficulties in model comprehension and selection among users. Our study sheds light on new challenges in reusing PTMs that were not reported before and we provide recommendations for various stakeholders involved in PTM reuse.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We present a representation-driven framework for reinforcement learning. By representing policies as estimates of their expected values, we leverage techniques from contextual bandits to guide exploration and exploitation. Particularly, embedding a policy network into a linear feature space allows us to reframe the exploration-exploitation problem as a representation-exploitation problem, where good policy representations enable optimal exploration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework through its application to evolutionary and policy gradient-based approaches, leading to significantly improved performance compared to traditional methods. Our framework provides a new perspective on reinforcement learning, highlighting the importance of policy representation in determining optimal exploration-exploitation strategies.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Reward models (RM) capture the values and preferences of humans and play a central role in Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) to align pretrained large language models (LLMs). Traditionally, training these models relies on extensive human-annotated preference data, which poses significant challenges in terms of scalability and cost. To overcome these limitations, we propose Semi-Supervised Reward Modeling (SSRM), an approach that enhances RM training using unlabeled data. Given an unlabeled dataset, SSRM involves three key iterative steps: pseudo-labeling unlabeled examples, selecting high-confidence examples through a confidence threshold, and supervised finetuning on the refined dataset. Across extensive experiments on various model configurations, we demonstrate that SSRM significantly improves reward models without incurring additional labeling costs. Notably, SSRM can achieve performance comparable to models trained entirely on labeled data of equivalent volumes. Overall, SSRM substantially reduces the dependency on large volumes of human-annotated data, thereby decreasing the overall cost and time involved in training effective reward models.

In deep learning, performance is strongly affected by the choice of architecture and hyperparameters. While there has been extensive work on automatic hyperparameter optimization for simple spaces, complex spaces such as the space of deep architectures remain largely unexplored. As a result, the choice of architecture is done manually by the human expert through a slow trial and error process guided mainly by intuition. In this paper we describe a framework for automatically designing and training deep models. We propose an extensible and modular language that allows the human expert to compactly represent complex search spaces over architectures and their hyperparameters. The resulting search spaces are tree-structured and therefore easy to traverse. Models can be automatically compiled to computational graphs once values for all hyperparameters have been chosen. We can leverage the structure of the search space to introduce different model search algorithms, such as random search, Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS), and sequential model-based optimization (SMBO). We present experiments comparing the different algorithms on CIFAR-10 and show that MCTS and SMBO outperform random search. In addition, these experiments show that our framework can be used effectively for model discovery, as it is possible to describe expressive search spaces and discover competitive models without much effort from the human expert. Code for our framework and experiments has been made publicly available.

The last year has witnessed the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) across diverse domains. Among them, CodeLLMs have garnered particular attention because they can not only assist in completing various programming tasks but also represent the decision-making and logical reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, current CodeLLMs mainly focus on pre-training and supervised fine-tuning scenarios, leaving the alignment stage, which is important for post-training LLMs, under-explored. This work first identifies that the commonly used PPO algorithm may be suboptimal for the alignment of CodeLLM because the involved reward rules are routinely coarse-grained and potentially flawed. We then advocate addressing this using the DPO algorithm. Based on only preference data pairs, DPO can render the model rank data automatically, giving rise to a fine-grained rewarding pattern more robust than human intervention. We also contribute a pipeline for collecting preference pairs for DPO on CodeLLMs. Studies show that our method significantly improves the performance of existing CodeLLMs on benchmarks such as MBPP and HumanEval.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

Improvements in language model capabilities are often attributed to increasing model size or training data, but in some cases smaller models trained on curated data or with different architectural decisions can outperform larger ones trained on more tokens. What accounts for this? To quantify the impact of these design choices, we meta-analyze 92 open-source pretrained models across a wide array of scales, including state-of-the-art open-weights models as well as less performant models and those with less conventional design decisions. We find that by incorporating features besides model size and number of training tokens, we can achieve a relative 3-28% increase in ability to predict downstream performance compared with using scale alone. Analysis of model design decisions reveal insights into data composition, such as the trade-off between language and code tasks at 15-25\% code, as well as the better performance of some architectural decisions such as choosing rotary over learned embeddings. Broadly, our framework lays a foundation for more systematic investigation of how model development choices shape final capabilities.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) have become more advanced, they have outpaced our abilities to accurately evaluate their quality. Not only is finding data to adequately probe particular model properties difficult, but evaluating the correctness of a model's freeform generation alone is a challenge. To address this, many evaluations now rely on using LLMs themselves as judges to score the quality of outputs from other LLMs. Evaluations most commonly use a single large model like GPT4. While this method has grown in popularity, it is costly, has been shown to introduce intramodel bias, and in this work, we find that very large models are often unnecessary. We propose instead to evaluate models using a Panel of LLm evaluators (PoLL). Across three distinct judge settings and spanning six different datasets, we find that using a PoLL composed of a larger number of smaller models outperforms a single large judge, exhibits less intra-model bias due to its composition of disjoint model families, and does so while being over seven times less expensive.

Manual curation of evaluation datasets is struggling to keep up with the rapidly expanding capabilities and deployment scenarios of language models. Towards scalable model profiling, we introduce and validate a framework for evaluating LLMs, called Adaptive Evaluations. Adaptive evaluations use scaffolded language models (evaluator agents) to search through a target model's behavior on a domain dataset and create difficult questions (tasks) that can discover and probe the model's failure modes. We find that frontier models lack consistency when adaptively probed with our framework on a diverse suite of datasets and tasks, including but not limited to legal reasoning, forecasting, and online harassment. Generated questions pass human validity checks and often transfer to other models with different capability profiles, demonstrating that adaptive evaluations can also be used to create difficult domain-specific datasets.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has shown promising results in mathematical reasoning and coding tasks where well-structured reference answers are available. However, its applicability to broader domains remains underexplored. In this work, we study the extension of RLVR to more diverse domains such as medicine, chemistry, psychology, and economics. We observe high agreement in binary judgments across different large language models (LLMs) when objective reference answers exist, which challenges the necessity of large-scale annotation for training domain-specific reward models. To address the limitations of binary rewards when handling unstructured reference answers, we further incorporate model-based soft scoring into RLVR to improve its flexibility. Our experiments show that a distilled generative reward model can serve as an effective cross-domain verifier, providing reliable reward signals for RL without requiring domain-specific annotations. By fine-tuning a base 7B model using various RL algorithms against our reward model, we obtain policies that outperform state-of-the-art open-source aligned LLMs such as Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B by a large margin, across domains in free-form answer settings. This also strengthens RLVR's robustness and scalability, highlighting its potential for real-world applications with noisy or weak labels.

The Shapley value is arguably the most popular approach for assigning a meaningful contribution value to players in a cooperative game, which has recently been used intensively in explainable artificial intelligence. The meaningfulness is due to axiomatic properties that only the Shapley value satisfies, which, however, comes at the expense of an exact computation growing exponentially with the number of agents. Accordingly, a number of works are devoted to the efficient approximation of the Shapley values, most of them revolve around the notion of an agent's marginal contribution. In this paper, we propose with SVARM and Stratified SVARM two parameter-free and domain-independent approximation algorithms based on a representation of the Shapley value detached from the notion of marginal contributions. We prove unmatched theoretical guarantees regarding their approximation quality and provide empirical results including synthetic games as well as common explainability use cases comparing ourselves with state-of-the-art methods.

Despite remarkable successes, deep reinforcement learning algorithms remain sample inefficient: they require an enormous amount of trial and error to find good policies. Model-based algorithms promise sample efficiency by building an environment model that can be used for planning. Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning is such a model-based algorithm that has attracted significant interest due to its performance in the tabular setting. This paper introduces Posterior Sampling for Deep Reinforcement Learning (PSDRL), the first truly scalable approximation of Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning that retains its model-based essence. PSDRL combines efficient uncertainty quantification over latent state space models with a specially tailored continual planning algorithm based on value-function approximation. Extensive experiments on the Atari benchmark show that PSDRL significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art attempts at scaling up posterior sampling while being competitive with a state-of-the-art (model-based) reinforcement learning method, both in sample efficiency and computational efficiency.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated great promise in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preference. Depending on the availability of preference data, both online and offline RLHF are active areas of investigation. A key bottleneck is understanding how to incorporate uncertainty estimation in the reward function learned from the preference data for RLHF, regardless of how the preference data is collected. While the principles of optimism or pessimism under uncertainty are well-established in standard reinforcement learning (RL), a practically-implementable and theoretically-grounded form amenable to large language models is not yet available, as standard techniques for constructing confidence intervals become intractable under arbitrary policy parameterizations. In this paper, we introduce a unified approach to online and offline RLHF -- value-incentivized preference optimization (VPO) -- which regularizes the maximum-likelihood estimate of the reward function with the corresponding value function, modulated by a sign to indicate whether the optimism or pessimism is chosen. VPO also directly optimizes the policy with implicit reward modeling, and therefore shares a simpler RLHF pipeline similar to direct preference optimization. Theoretical guarantees of VPO are provided for both online and offline settings, matching the rates of their standard RL counterparts. Moreover, experiments on text summarization and dialog verify the practicality and effectiveness of VPO.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a crucial technology for aligning language models with human values and intentions, enabling models to produce more helpful and harmless responses. Reward models are trained as proxies for human preferences to drive reinforcement learning optimization. While reward models are often considered central to achieving high performance, they face the following challenges in practical applications: (1) Incorrect and ambiguous preference pairs in the dataset may hinder the reward model from accurately capturing human intent. (2) Reward models trained on data from a specific distribution often struggle to generalize to examples outside that distribution and are not suitable for iterative RLHF training. In this report, we attempt to address these two issues. (1) From a data perspective, we propose a method to measure the strength of preferences within the data, based on a voting mechanism of multiple reward models. Experimental results confirm that data with varying preference strengths have different impacts on reward model performance. We introduce a series of novel methods to mitigate the influence of incorrect and ambiguous preferences in the dataset and fully leverage high-quality preference data. (2) From an algorithmic standpoint, we introduce contrastive learning to enhance the ability of reward models to distinguish between chosen and rejected responses, thereby improving model generalization. Furthermore, we employ meta-learning to enable the reward model to maintain the ability to differentiate subtle differences in out-of-distribution samples, and this approach can be utilized for iterative RLHF optimization.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is frequently employed in fine-tuning large language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, to penalize them for undesirable features of generated sequences, such as offensiveness, social bias, harmfulness or falsehood. The RL formulation involves treating the LM as a policy and updating it to maximise the expected value of a reward function which captures human preferences, such as non-offensiveness. In this paper, we analyze challenges associated with treating a language model as an RL policy and show how avoiding those challenges requires moving beyond the RL paradigm. We start by observing that the standard RL approach is flawed as an objective for fine-tuning LMs because it leads to distribution collapse: turning the LM into a degenerate distribution. Then, we analyze KL-regularised RL, a widely used recipe for fine-tuning LMs, which additionally constrains the fine-tuned LM to stay close to its original distribution in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that KL-regularised RL is equivalent to variational inference: approximating a Bayesian posterior which specifies how to update a prior LM to conform with evidence provided by the reward function. We argue that this Bayesian inference view of KL-regularised RL is more insightful than the typically employed RL perspective. The Bayesian inference view explains how KL-regularised RL avoids the distribution collapse problem and offers a first-principles derivation for its objective. While this objective happens to be equivalent to RL (with a particular choice of parametric reward), there exist other objectives for fine-tuning LMs which are no longer equivalent to RL. That observation leads to a more general point: RL is not an adequate formal framework for problems such as fine-tuning language models. These problems are best viewed as Bayesian inference: approximating a pre-defined target distribution.

Large language models (LLMs) appear to bias their survey answers toward certain values. Nonetheless, some argue that LLMs are too inconsistent to simulate particular values. Are they? To answer, we first define value consistency as the similarity of answers across (1) paraphrases of one question, (2) related questions under one topic, (3) multiple-choice and open-ended use-cases of one question, and (4) multilingual translations of a question to English, Chinese, German, and Japanese. We apply these measures to a few large (>=34b), open LLMs including llama-3, as well as gpt-4o, using eight thousand questions spanning more than 300 topics. Unlike prior work, we find that models are relatively consistent across paraphrases, use-cases, translations, and within a topic. Still, some inconsistencies remain. Models are more consistent on uncontroversial topics (e.g., in the U.S., "Thanksgiving") than on controversial ones ("euthanasia"). Base models are both more consistent compared to fine-tuned models and are uniform in their consistency across topics, while fine-tuned models are more inconsistent about some topics ("euthanasia") than others ("women's rights") like our human subjects (n=165).

Data attribution seeks to trace model outputs back to training data. With the recent development of diffusion models, data attribution has become a desired module to properly assign valuations for high-quality or copyrighted training samples, ensuring that data contributors are fairly compensated or credited. Several theoretically motivated methods have been proposed to implement data attribution, in an effort to improve the trade-off between computational scalability and effectiveness. In this work, we conduct extensive experiments and ablation studies on attributing diffusion models, specifically focusing on DDPMs trained on CIFAR-10 and CelebA, as well as a Stable Diffusion model LoRA-finetuned on ArtBench. Intriguingly, we report counter-intuitive observations that theoretically unjustified design choices for attribution empirically outperform previous baselines by a large margin, in terms of both linear datamodeling score and counterfactual evaluation. Our work presents a significantly more efficient approach for attributing diffusion models, while the unexpected findings suggest that at least in non-convex settings, constructions guided by theoretical assumptions may lead to inferior attribution performance. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/D-TRAK.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

Evaluating the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) has traditionally relied on static benchmark datasets, human assessments, or model-based evaluations - methods that often suffer from overfitting, high costs, and biases. ZeroSumEval is a novel competition-based evaluation protocol that leverages zero-sum games to assess LLMs with dynamic benchmarks that resist saturation. ZeroSumEval encompasses a diverse suite of games, including security challenges (PyJail), classic games (Chess, Liar's Dice, Poker), knowledge tests (MathQuiz), and persuasion challenges (Gandalf, Debate). These games are designed to evaluate a range of AI capabilities such as strategic reasoning, planning, knowledge application, and creativity. Building upon recent studies that highlight the effectiveness of game-based evaluations for LLMs, ZeroSumEval enhances these approaches by providing a standardized and extensible framework. To demonstrate this, we conduct extensive experiments with >7000 simulations across 7 games and 13 models. Our results show that while frontier models from the GPT and Claude families can play common games and answer questions, they struggle to play games that require creating novel and challenging questions. We also observe that models cannot reliably jailbreak each other and fail generally at tasks requiring creativity. We release our code at https://github.com/facebookresearch/ZeroSumEval.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

While fine-tuning pretrained models has become common practice, these models often underperform outside their specific domains. Recently developed model merging techniques enable the direct integration of multiple models, each fine-tuned for distinct tasks, into a single model. This strategy promotes multitasking capabilities without requiring retraining on the original datasets. However, existing methods fall short in addressing potential conflicts and complex correlations between tasks, especially in parameter-level adjustments, posing a challenge in effectively balancing parameter competition across various tasks. This paper introduces an innovative technique named PCB-Merging (Parameter Competition Balancing), a lightweight and training-free technique that adjusts the coefficients of each parameter for effective model merging. PCB-Merging employs intra-balancing to gauge parameter significance within individual tasks and inter-balancing to assess parameter similarities across different tasks. Parameters with low importance scores are dropped, and the remaining ones are rescaled to form the final merged model. We assessed our approach in diverse merging scenarios, including cross-task, cross-domain, and cross-training configurations, as well as out-of-domain generalization. The experimental results reveal that our approach achieves substantial performance enhancements across multiple modalities, domains, model sizes, number of tasks, fine-tuning forms, and large language models, outperforming existing model merging methods. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/duguodong7/pcb-merging.