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Sep 18

CalArena: A Large-Scale Post-Hoc Calibration Benchmark

Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated. Post-hoc calibration provides a simple and widely used solution, but the large number of proposed methods, combined with small-scale and inconsistent evaluations, makes it difficult to determine which approaches are truly effective in practice. We introduce a large-scale, standardized benchmark for post-hoc calibration, covering nearly 2000 experiments across tabular and computer vision tasks, including binary, multiclass, and large-scale classification settings. Our benchmark aggregates predictions from a diverse set of classical models, modern deep learning architectures, and foundation models, and provides unified, reproducible implementations of dozens of calibration methods within a common evaluation framework. We argue that Post-Hoc Improvement (PHI) in proper scoring rules offers a principled alternative to traditional calibration error estimators for comparing post-hoc methods, capturing both calibration quality and potential degradation to the model's predictive performance. Using this framework, we conduct the most comprehensive empirical study of post-hoc calibration to date. Our results reveal consistent patterns across domains: smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches, dedicated multiclass methods are essential in high-dimensional settings, and generic machine learning models are not competitive without calibration-specific design. To facilitate future research, we release all data, code, and evaluation tools, providing a plug-and-play benchmark for developing and comparing calibration methods.

  • 4 authors
·
May 27

Rethinking Post-Hoc Calibration in Semantic Segmentation

Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, especially in safety-critical settings where overconfident errors can mislead downstream decisions. Yet modern segmentation models often remain miscalibrated. Post-hoc calibration offers a practical way to correct confidence estimates without retraining the segmentation model, but its use in dense prediction raises structural issues that are often overlooked. We study two such issues. First, adding a constant to all logits leaves the softmax probabilities unchanged, but several standard calibrators can still depend on this arbitrary offset. As a result, two logit representations encoding the same predictive distribution may yield different calibrated probabilities. We define translation-invariant (TI) calibrators as those whose outputs are unchanged under such shifts, characterize which common calibrators satisfy this property, and construct TI counterparts of shift-sensitive calibrators to isolate the effect of removing representation dependence. Second, post-hoc calibration is typically fitted by minimizing a likelihood-based objective, whereas segmentation models are trained with task-specific metrics such as Dice. This mismatch can cause calibration to alter class orderings and degrade the deployed segmentation map. We study decision-preserving calibration under argmax- and order-preservation constraints. Since enforcing these constraints collapses affine softmax calibrators to temperature scaling, we introduce class-conditional affine calibrators that can be made argmax- or order-preserving while retaining greater expressivity, allowing us to quantify the calibration-segmentation trade-off induced by decision preservation. Across natural-image and medical segmentation benchmarks, and under corruption-based covariate shift, matched comparisons show that TI variants generally improve calibration metrics, while decision-preserving variants prevent segmentation degradation and retain strong calibration performance. These results provide practical design principles for well-defined post-hoc calibration pipelines in semantic segmentation.

MIC-DKFZ MIC at DKFZ
·
Jul 1

h-calibration: Rethinking Classifier Recalibration with Probabilistic Error-Bounded Objective

Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 22, 2025

Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original top-1. The calibrated conditional distribution allocates the remaining mass over the other classes, yielding a repaired vector whose own argmax recovers the original prediction. On the calibration split, CORD coordinates the repaired masses to retain the calibrated outputs' mean mass on original predictions whenever attainable. The adapter alters neither the fitted calibrator nor its direct output, fits no additional supervised map, and requires no user- or validation-tuned hyperparameter. Across CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet-1K, CORD attains zero TPCR by construction and lowers mean ECE, NLL, and Brier relative to the corresponding direct outputs in every dataset; paired gains persist under distribution shift and across calibration-set sizes. CORD thus removes the preservation constraint from calibrator fitting and assigns exact recovery of the original decision to subsequent output repair. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/CORD.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 1 2

A Gravitational Interpretation of Fine-Tuning Reversion

Fine-tuning on harmless data can partially undo behaviors acquired earlier in training. Safety can erode under benign post-alignment updates, unlearned capabilities can re-emerge, latent traits can transfer through apparently unrelated supervision, and related post-alignment fragility appears in other generative settings. We argue these phenomena are usefully viewed through a common training-history lens. Our hypothesis is geometric: large early training phases create dominant behavioral manifolds, while later alignment or specialization phases are shallower displacements from them. Subsequent fine-tuning can therefore inherit a persistent reversion component pointing back toward a witness of the dominant manifold. We call this the gravitational interpretation of fine-tuning reversion. Across our main settings, representational drift rapidly acquires a component along a history-defined reversion direction (v_rev). In our main track, alignment with v_rev rises from cos = 0.429 +/- 0.052 after the first update to 0.647 +/- 0.021 by step 20. Across 24 run-step pairs, every observed alignment exceeds the p99 of an isotropic activation-space null. We demonstrate that selectively blocking motion along v_rev changes the final alignment at T=100 from 0.648 +/- 0.009 to -0.211 +/- 0.021 and reduces harmfulness from 19.0% +/- 4.0% to 8.5% +/- 1.5% with little task cost. These results support v_rev as a causally relevant mediator of early post-alignment reversion in our setup. Importantly, we do not claim that v_rev is the unique safety direction, nor that the dominant manifold is directly observed; rather, we identify a robust, history-defined direction that explains and partially controls early reversion dynamics.

Learn What's Left, Not What's Mastered: Saturation Aware Advantage Reweighting for Multi-Reward Policy Optimization

Reinforcement learning (RL) with group-relative advantages has become the de facto standard for post-training language model reasoners. However, when optimizing multiple reward objectives, existing methods typically scalarize the reward vector with a fixed weighted sum before group-wise standardization. We show that this design leads to two fundamental problems: rollouts with distinct reward profiles can receive identical advantages, and all objectives are optimized with fixed relative weights regardless of their current level of saturation. As a result, training continues to allocate gradient budget to already-solved objectives instead of focusing on those with greater remaining headroom. We introduce Saturation Aware Advantage Reweighting for Multi-Reward Policy Optimization (SA-MRPO), which standardizes each reward objective independently and adaptively discounts its contribution according to a batch-level estimate of objective saturation. This dynamically reallocates optimization effort toward under-optimized objectives while empirically maintaining performance on those that are already well satisfied. We further show that saturation-aware reweighting can reverse the sign of an update, rather than merely rescale its magnitude. Across mathematical reasoning with two- and three-objective reward combinations, SA-MRPO improves the harder correctness objective over GDPO in 12 of 15 benchmark comparisons, with gains of up to 5% on AIME24. On adaptive reasoning it improves accuracy on all five benchmarks, by 3.8% on average and up to 9.2 % on AMC23, and on coding benchmarks it improves pass rate by up to 2.3%, while in all settings maintaining the easier objectives near their already satisfied levels.

Conservative Offline Robot Policy Learning via Posterior-Transition Reweighting

Offline post-training adapts a pretrained robot policy to a target dataset by supervised regression on recorded actions. In practice, robot datasets are heterogeneous: they mix embodiments, camera setups, and demonstrations of varying quality, so many trajectories reflect recovery behavior, inconsistent operator skill, or weakly informative supervision. Uniform post-training gives equal credit to all samples and can therefore average over conflicting or low-attribution data. We propose Posterior-Transition Reweighting (PTR), a reward-free and conservative post-training method that decides how much each training sample should influence the supervised update. For each sample, PTR encodes the observed post-action consequence as a latent target, inserts it into a candidate pool of mismatched targets, and uses a separate transition scorer to estimate a softmax identification posterior over target indices. The posterior-to-uniform ratio defines the PTR score, which is converted into a clipped-and-mixed weight and applied to the original action objective through self-normalized weighted regression. This construction requires no tractable policy likelihood and is compatible with both diffusion and flow-matching action heads. Rather than uniformly trusting all recorded supervision, PTR reallocates credit according to how attributable each sample's post-action consequence is under the current representation, improving conservative offline adaptation to heterogeneous robot data.

BeingBeyond BeingBeyond
·
Mar 17 2

On Calibration of Object Detectors: Pitfalls, Evaluation and Baselines

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

  • 4 authors
·
May 30, 2024

Optimizing Calibration by Gaining Aware of Prediction Correctness

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 19, 2024

ReRound: Reconstructive Rounding to Resolve Midpoint Ambiguity in Calibration-Free LLM Quantization

ReRound (Reconstructive Rounding) is a post-training quantization method that addresses the midpoint ambiguity inherent in standard round-to-nearest (RTN) schemes when quantizing weights near the centers of quantization intervals. Starting from a pretrained LLM, ReRound trains a conditional diffusion model to produce continuous reconstructions of low-bit weights for the LLM. These reconstructed weights act as a guidance signal to disambiguate the rounding direction of weights located close to interval midpoints. To integrate this reconstruction-guided rounding with conventional RTN, ReRound introduces a tolerance metric measuring how far the quantized weight (not the final quantized integer) is away from the midpoint: quantized weights within a tolerance region around midpoints are quantized using diffusion-based reconstructions, whereas weights closer to quantization boundaries are quantized with RTN. By sweeping the tolerance parameter, ReRound generates multiple candidate quantized integer weight matrices and selects the de-quantized weight matrix candidate whose leading singular values most closely match those of the original full-precision weights. This selected candidate determines the tolerance parameter ReRound uses. ReRound is particularly effective for smaller LLMs. Across a range of such models, it consistently outperforms standard RTN for 3-bit and 4-bit weight quantization. ReRound achieves superior accuracy compared to an extensive set of calibration-free methods, remains competitive with calibration-dependent approaches, and operates entirely offline, introducing no additional overhead during low-bit inference. The ReRound strategy represents a new approach for low-bit quantization. The method applies to AI models beyond LLMs. This paper focuses on its applications to small LLMs.

OTSurv: A Novel Multiple Instance Learning Framework for Survival Prediction with Heterogeneity-aware Optimal Transport

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 25, 2025

Towards Reversible Model Merging For Low-rank Weights

Model merging aims to combine multiple fine-tuned models into a single set of weights that performs well across all source tasks. While prior work has shown that merging can approximate the performance of individual fine-tuned models for each task, it largely overlooks scenarios where models are compressed into low-rank representations, either through low-rank adaptation (LoRA) or post-training singular value decomposition (SVD). We first demonstrate that applying conventional merging methods to low-rank weights leads to severe performance degradation in the merged model. Motivated by this phenomenon, we propose a fundamentally different approach: instead of collapsing all adapters into one set of weights, we construct a compact basis (e.g., an equivalent of holding two or more models) from which original task-specific models can be recovered via linear combination. This reframes merging as generating a reconstruction-capable model space rather than producing a single merged model. Crucially, this allows us to ``revert'' to each individual model when needed, recognizing that no merged model can consistently outperform one specialized for its task. Building on this insight, we introduce our method, Reversible Model Merging (RMM), an efficient, data-free, and flexible method that provides a closed-form solution for selecting the optimal basis of model weights and task-specific coefficients for linear combination. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets and model scales demonstrate that RMM consistently outperforms existing merging approaches, preserving the performance of low-rank compressed models by a significant margin.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 15, 2025

Bone: Block Affine Transformation as Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning Methods for Large Language Models

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has achieved remarkable training results by freezing the original weights and training only low-rank matrices, establishing itself as the predominant fine-tuning method for LLMs. In pursuit of performance closer to full-parameter training, a series of LoRA variants have emerged, such as LoRA+, PISSA, Olora, and LoRA-GA. However, these improvements complicate the initial setup of model training and increase initialization time. More importantly, they overlook the internal interactions of the original weight information. To address these issues, we introduce a novel theory, ``Weight Guide'' aimed at continuously guiding trainable matrices through the original weights during training to enhance the utilization of weight information. Based on this theory, we designed a new PEFT technique called Bone (Block Affine), which not only enhances the utilization of original weight information but also emphasizes the internal connections between weights, leading to faster convergence and better data fitting. Experimental comparisons across two different LLM architectures (LLaMA2, RWKV6) and various parameter scales demonstrate that the Bone structure can achieve rapid convergence and superior data fitting without the need for complex initialization. For example, when fine-tuning LLaMA2-7B on the MetaMathQA dataset and validating on GSM8k and math benchmarks, Bone achieved fine-tuning scores of 49.36 and 8.8, respectively, outperforming PISSA by 5.84\% and 1.96\%.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 19, 2024 1

The Lift Spectrum: How Measurement-to-Space Adaptivity Shapes Robustness in Image-Free Single-Pixel Sensing

Single-pixel sensing encodes a scene as a short sequence of coded measurements, and image-free methods infer the task directly from that sequence. Removing reconstruction does not remove the difficulty: it relocates it to the lift, the map from 1D measurements to a 2D representation, which prior work treats as a trivial reshape. We recast the lift as the central design axis of image-free sensing and order methods by how strongly it adapts to its input: a fixed-physics inverse (reconstruct-then-segment), a learned static projection, or a content-adaptive retrieval; position on this lift spectrum predicts behavior as acquisition degrades. The spatiotemporal soft-fusion (STSF) network pairs a probe-selected recurrent encoder with a cross-attention lift chosen by a parameter-matched ablation, ahead of its U-Net++ decoder, and trains under task-prioritized loss scheduling (TPLS), a scheduled reconstruction prior. In simulation, STSF+TPLS surpasses the prior image-free baseline on three datasets at 3.13% sampling (+3.2 to +9.9 pp foreground mIoU) and plateaus down to 0.39%. The strongest clean-trained reconstruct-then-segment baseline wins the noiseless limit, but under calibrated measurement noise image-free inference overtakes it, for a measured reason: the reconstruction pipeline amplifies the identical measurement noise before its segmenter reads it. Each region fails in its own signature: collapse, imprinting, or coarsening. STSF+TPLS transfers without fine-tuning to a real single-pixel bench as a proof of concept, at about 14 ms per mask. Charting the lift turns a scattered design space into a map of which lift to deploy at each operating point. Code and pretrained weights: https://github.com/Hanyuyuan6/STSF-TPLS

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 23

BigNAS: Scaling Up Neural Architecture Search with Big Single-Stage Models

Neural architecture search (NAS) has shown promising results discovering models that are both accurate and fast. For NAS, training a one-shot model has become a popular strategy to rank the relative quality of different architectures (child models) using a single set of shared weights. However, while one-shot model weights can effectively rank different network architectures, the absolute accuracies from these shared weights are typically far below those obtained from stand-alone training. To compensate, existing methods assume that the weights must be retrained, finetuned, or otherwise post-processed after the search is completed. These steps significantly increase the compute requirements and complexity of the architecture search and model deployment. In this work, we propose BigNAS, an approach that challenges the conventional wisdom that post-processing of the weights is necessary to get good prediction accuracies. Without extra retraining or post-processing steps, we are able to train a single set of shared weights on ImageNet and use these weights to obtain child models whose sizes range from 200 to 1000 MFLOPs. Our discovered model family, BigNASModels, achieve top-1 accuracies ranging from 76.5% to 80.9%, surpassing state-of-the-art models in this range including EfficientNets and Once-for-All networks without extra retraining or post-processing. We present ablative study and analysis to further understand the proposed BigNASModels.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 24, 2020

Adaptive Learning Rule for Hardware-based Deep Neural Networks Using Electronic Synapse Devices

In this paper, we propose a learning rule based on a back-propagation (BP) algorithm that can be applied to a hardware-based deep neural network (HW-DNN) using electronic devices that exhibit discrete and limited conductance characteristics. This adaptive learning rule, which enables forward, backward propagation, as well as weight updates in hardware, is helpful during the implementation of power-efficient and high-speed deep neural networks. In simulations using a three-layer perceptron network, we evaluate the learning performance according to various conductance responses of electronic synapse devices and weight-updating methods. It is shown that the learning accuracy is comparable to that obtained when using a software-based BP algorithm when the electronic synapse device has a linear conductance response with a high dynamic range. Furthermore, the proposed unidirectional weight-updating method is suitable for electronic synapse devices which have nonlinear and finite conductance responses. Because this weight-updating method can compensate the demerit of asymmetric weight updates, we can obtain better accuracy compared to other methods. This adaptive learning rule, which can be applied to full hardware implementation, can also compensate the degradation of learning accuracy due to the probable device-to-device variation in an actual electronic synapse device.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 20, 2017

Steering Language Models with Weight Arithmetic

Providing high-quality feedback to Large Language Models (LLMs) on a diverse training distribution can be difficult and expensive, and providing feedback only on a narrow distribution can result in unintended generalizations. To better leverage narrow training data, we propose contrastive weight steering, a simple post-training method that edits the model parameters using weight arithmetic. We isolate a behavior direction in weight-space by subtracting the weight deltas from two small fine-tunes -- one that induces the desired behavior and another that induces its opposite -- and then add or remove this direction to modify the model's weights. We apply this technique to mitigate sycophancy and induce misalignment, and find that weight steering often generalizes further than activation steering, achieving stronger out-of-distribution behavioral control before degrading general capabilities. We also show that, in the context of task-specific fine-tuning, weight steering can partially mitigate undesired behavioral drift: it can reduce sycophancy and under-refusals introduced during fine-tuning while preserving task performance gains. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence that emergent misalignment can be detected by measuring the similarity between fine-tuning updates and an "evil" weight direction, suggesting that it may be possible to monitor the evolution of weights during training and detect rare misaligned behaviors that never manifest during training or evaluations.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 26

From Reweighting to Rewriting: Unlocking the Intervention Effects of Influential Samples in Training Data Attribution

Training data attribution (TDA) aims to identify training examples that shape model behavior, but its intervention value depends on both which examples are selected and how they are modified. Influence functions (IF) estimate behavioral changes under infinitesimal reweighting, yet IF-selected examples often show limited advantages over random selection under conventional weight-based interventions. This raises the question of whether influential examples lack intervention value or whether reweighting fails to realize their behavioral leverage.We introduce influence-guided response rewriting, which uses IF to identify intervention targets and replaces their responses with behavior-aligned or behavior-opposed supervision while keeping instructions fixed. Across four open-weight LLMs, we compare rewriting and reweighting on the same influence-selected examples using epistemic abstention as our primary testbed. Response rewriting produces stronger, more persistent, and bidirectional behavioral shifts, while reweighting the same examples yields weak and inconsistent effects. Further analyses show that influence-selected examples provide greater rewriting leverage than alternative selectors, with changes remaining concentrated on target-relevant behaviors. The same qualitative contrast extends to safety refusal. These results distinguish the local reweighting effects captured by influence estimates from the broader intervention leverage of the examples they identify, motivating intervention-aware evaluation of TDA methods.

Transfer Learning for Meta-analysis Under Covariate Shift

Randomized controlled trials often do not represent the populations where decisions are made, and covariate shift across studies can invalidate standard IPD meta-analysis and transport estimators. We propose a placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as abundant proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as scarce, high-fidelity gold labels to calibrate baseline risk. A low-complexity (sparse) correction anchors proxy outcome models to the target population, and the anchored models are embedded in a cross-fitted doubly robust learner, yielding a Neyman-orthogonal, target-site doubly robust estimator for patient-level heterogeneous treatment effects when target treated outcomes are available. We distinguish two regimes: in connected targets (with a treated arm), the method yields target-identified effect estimates; in disconnected targets (placebo-only), it reduces to a principled screen--then--transport procedure under explicit working-model transport assumptions. Experiments on synthetic data and a semi-synthetic IHDP benchmark evaluate pointwise CATE accuracy, ATE error, ranking quality for targeting, decision-theoretic policy regret, and calibration. Across connected settings, the proposed method is best or near-best and improves substantially over proxy-only, target-only, and transport baselines at small target sample sizes; in disconnected settings, it retains strong ranking performance for targeting while pointwise accuracy depends on the strength of the working transport condition.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 5