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Aug 11

Selective Machine Learning of the Average Treatment Effect with an Invalid Instrumental Variable

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

ECtHR-PCR: A Dataset for Precedent Understanding and Prior Case Retrieval in the European Court of Human Rights

In common law jurisdictions, legal practitioners rely on precedents to construct arguments, in line with the doctrine of stare decisis. As the number of cases grow over the years, prior case retrieval (PCR) has garnered significant attention. Besides lacking real-world scale, existing PCR datasets do not simulate a realistic setting, because their queries use complete case documents while only masking references to prior cases. The query is thereby exposed to legal reasoning not yet available when constructing an argument for an undecided case as well as spurious patterns left behind by citation masks, potentially short-circuiting a comprehensive understanding of case facts and legal principles. To address these limitations, we introduce a PCR dataset based on judgements from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which explicitly separate facts from arguments and exhibit precedential practices, aiding us to develop this PCR dataset to foster systems' comprehensive understanding. We benchmark different lexical and dense retrieval approaches with various negative sampling strategies, adapting them to deal with long text sequences using hierarchical variants. We found that difficulty-based negative sampling strategies were not effective for the PCR task, highlighting the need for investigation into domain-specific difficulty criteria. Furthermore, we observe performance of the dense models degrade with time and calls for further research into temporal adaptation of retrieval models. Additionally, we assess the influence of different views , Halsbury's and Goodhart's, in practice in ECtHR jurisdiction using PCR task.

Machine learning applications to DNA subsequence and restriction site analysis

Based on the BioBricks standard, restriction synthesis is a novel catabolic iterative DNA synthesis method that utilizes endonucleases to synthesize a query sequence from a reference sequence. In this work, the reference sequence is built from shorter subsequences by classifying them as applicable or inapplicable for the synthesis method using three different machine learning methods: Support Vector Machines (SVMs), random forest, and Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). Before applying these methods to the data, a series of feature selection, curation, and reduction steps are applied to create an accurate and representative feature space. Following these preprocessing steps, three different pipelines are proposed to classify subsequences based on their nucleotide sequence and other relevant features corresponding to the restriction sites of over 200 endonucleases. The sensitivity using SVMs, random forest, and CNNs are 94.9%, 92.7%, 91.4%, respectively. Moreover, each method scores lower in specificity with SVMs, random forest, and CNNs resulting in 77.4%, 85.7%, and 82.4%, respectively. In addition to analyzing these results, the misclassifications in SVMs and CNNs are investigated. Across these two models, different features with a derived nucleotide specificity visually contribute more to classification compared to other features. This observation is an important factor when considering new nucleotide sensitivity features for future studies.

Sharper Bounds for ell_p Sensitivity Sampling

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

Adaptive Sampling Strategies to Construct Equitable Training Datasets

In domains ranging from computer vision to natural language processing, machine learning models have been shown to exhibit stark disparities, often performing worse for members of traditionally underserved groups. One factor contributing to these performance gaps is a lack of representation in the data the models are trained on. It is often unclear, however, how to operationalize representativeness in specific applications. Here we formalize the problem of creating equitable training datasets, and propose a statistical framework for addressing this problem. We consider a setting where a model builder must decide how to allocate a fixed data collection budget to gather training data from different subgroups. We then frame dataset creation as a constrained optimization problem, in which one maximizes a function of group-specific performance metrics based on (estimated) group-specific learning rates and costs per sample. This flexible approach incorporates preferences of model-builders and other stakeholders, as well as the statistical properties of the learning task. When data collection decisions are made sequentially, we show that under certain conditions this optimization problem can be efficiently solved even without prior knowledge of the learning rates. To illustrate our approach, we conduct a simulation study of polygenic risk scores on synthetic genomic data -- an application domain that often suffers from non-representative data collection. We find that our adaptive sampling strategy outperforms several common data collection heuristics, including equal and proportional sampling, demonstrating the value of strategic dataset design for building equitable models.

Weighted least-squares approximation with determinantal point processes and generalized volume sampling

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Don't Play Favorites: Minority Guidance for Diffusion Models

We explore the problem of generating minority samples using diffusion models. The minority samples are instances that lie on low-density regions of a data manifold. Generating a sufficient number of such minority instances is important, since they often contain some unique attributes of the data. However, the conventional generation process of the diffusion models mostly yields majority samples (that lie on high-density regions of the manifold) due to their high likelihoods, making themselves ineffective and time-consuming for the minority generating task. In this work, we present a novel framework that can make the generation process of the diffusion models focus on the minority samples. We first highlight that Tweedie's denoising formula yields favorable results for majority samples. The observation motivates us to introduce a metric that describes the uniqueness of a given sample. To address the inherent preference of the diffusion models w.r.t. the majority samples, we further develop minority guidance, a sampling technique that can guide the generation process toward regions with desired likelihood levels. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our minority guidance can greatly improve the capability of generating high-quality minority samples over existing generative samplers. We showcase that the performance benefit of our framework persists even in demanding real-world scenarios such as medical imaging, further underscoring the practical significance of our work. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/minority-guidance.

Generating Private Synthetic Data with Genetic Algorithms

We study the problem of efficiently generating differentially private synthetic data that approximate the statistical properties of an underlying sensitive dataset. In recent years, there has been a growing line of work that approaches this problem using first-order optimization techniques. However, such techniques are restricted to optimizing differentiable objectives only, severely limiting the types of analyses that can be conducted. For example, first-order mechanisms have been primarily successful in approximating statistical queries only in the form of marginals for discrete data domains. In some cases, one can circumvent such issues by relaxing the task's objective to maintain differentiability. However, even when possible, these approaches impose a fundamental limitation in which modifications to the minimization problem become additional sources of error. Therefore, we propose Private-GSD, a private genetic algorithm based on zeroth-order optimization heuristics that do not require modifying the original objective. As a result, it avoids the aforementioned limitations of first-order optimization. We empirically evaluate Private-GSD against baseline algorithms on data derived from the American Community Survey across a variety of statistics--otherwise known as statistical queries--both for discrete and real-valued attributes. We show that Private-GSD outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on non-differential queries while matching accuracy in approximating differentiable ones.

SMOTE: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique

An approach to the construction of classifiers from imbalanced datasets is described. A dataset is imbalanced if the classification categories are not approximately equally represented. Often real-world data sets are predominately composed of "normal" examples with only a small percentage of "abnormal" or "interesting" examples. It is also the case that the cost of misclassifying an abnormal (interesting) example as a normal example is often much higher than the cost of the reverse error. Under-sampling of the majority (normal) class has been proposed as a good means of increasing the sensitivity of a classifier to the minority class. This paper shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority (abnormal) class and under-sampling the majority (normal) class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than only under-sampling the majority class. This paper also shows that a combination of our method of over-sampling the minority class and under-sampling the majority class can achieve better classifier performance (in ROC space) than varying the loss ratios in Ripper or class priors in Naive Bayes. Our method of over-sampling the minority class involves creating synthetic minority class examples. Experiments are performed using C4.5, Ripper and a Naive Bayes classifier. The method is evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) and the ROC convex hull strategy.

Learning to Actively Learn: A Robust Approach

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Bayesian Estimation of Differential Privacy

Algorithms such as Differentially Private SGD enable training machine learning models with formal privacy guarantees. However, there is a discrepancy between the protection that such algorithms guarantee in theory and the protection they afford in practice. An emerging strand of work empirically estimates the protection afforded by differentially private training as a confidence interval for the privacy budget varepsilon spent on training a model. Existing approaches derive confidence intervals for varepsilon from confidence intervals for the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. Unfortunately, obtaining narrow high-confidence intervals for epsilon using this method requires an impractically large sample size and training as many models as samples. We propose a novel Bayesian method that greatly reduces sample size, and adapt and validate a heuristic to draw more than one sample per trained model. Our Bayesian method exploits the hypothesis testing interpretation of differential privacy to obtain a posterior for varepsilon (not just a confidence interval) from the joint posterior of the false positive and false negative rates of membership inference attacks. For the same sample size and confidence, we derive confidence intervals for varepsilon around 40% narrower than prior work. The heuristic, which we adapt from label-only DP, can be used to further reduce the number of trained models needed to get enough samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysis

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Domain constraints improve risk prediction when outcome data is missing

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Domain-Specific Risk Minimization for Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

Using Imperfect Surrogates for Downstream Inference: Design-based Supervised Learning for Social Science Applications of Large Language Models

In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.

Masked Diffusion Models are Secretly Time-Agnostic Masked Models and Exploit Inaccurate Categorical Sampling

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a popular research topic for generative modeling of discrete data, thanks to their superior performance over other discrete diffusion models, and are rivaling the auto-regressive models (ARMs) for language modeling tasks. The recent effort in simplifying the masked diffusion framework further leads to alignment with continuous-space diffusion models and more principled training and sampling recipes. In this paper, however, we reveal that both training and sampling of MDMs are theoretically free from the time variable, arguably the key signature of diffusion models, and are instead equivalent to masked models. The connection on the sampling aspect is drawn by our proposed first-hitting sampler (FHS). Specifically, we show that the FHS is theoretically equivalent to MDMs' original generation process while significantly alleviating the time-consuming categorical sampling and achieving a 20times speedup. In addition, our investigation raises doubts about whether MDMs can truly beat ARMs. We identify, for the first time, an underlying numerical issue, even with the commonly used 32-bit floating-point precision, which results in inaccurate categorical sampling. We show that the numerical issue lowers the effective temperature both theoretically and empirically, and the resulting decrease in token diversity makes previous evaluations, which assess the generation quality solely through the incomplete generative perplexity metric, somewhat unfair.

Towards Exact Computation of Inductive Bias

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

MIG: Automatic Data Selection for Instruction Tuning by Maximizing Information Gain in Semantic Space

Data quality and diversity are key to the construction of effective instruction-tuning datasets. % With the increasing availability of open-source instruction-tuning datasets, it is advantageous to automatically select high-quality and diverse subsets from a vast amount of data. % Existing methods typically prioritize instance quality and use heuristic rules to maintain diversity. % However, this absence of a comprehensive view of the entire collection often leads to suboptimal results. % Moreover, heuristic rules generally focus on distance or clustering within the embedding space, which fails to accurately capture the intent of complex instructions in the semantic space. % To bridge this gap, we propose a unified method for quantifying the information content of datasets. This method models the semantic space by constructing a label graph and quantifies diversity based on the distribution of information within the graph. % Based on such a measurement, we further introduce an efficient sampling method that selects data samples iteratively to Maximize the Information Gain (MIG) in semantic space. % Experiments on various datasets and base models demonstrate that MIG consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods. % Notably, the model fine-tuned with 5\% Tulu3 data sampled by MIG achieves comparable performance to the official SFT model trained on the full dataset, with improvements of +5.73\% on AlpacaEval and +6.89\% on Wildbench.

Upsample or Upweight? Balanced Training on Heavily Imbalanced Datasets

Data availability across domains often follows a long-tail distribution: a few domains have abundant data, while most face dat . a scarcity. This imbalance poses challenges in training language models uniformly across all domains. In our study, we focus on multilingual settings, where data sizes vary significantly between high- and low-resource languages. Common strategies to address this include upsampling low-resource languages (Temperature Sampling) or upweighting their loss (Scalarization). Although often considered equivalent, this assumption has not been proven, which motivates our study. Through both theoretical and empirical analysis, we identify the conditions under which these approaches are equivalent and when they diverge. Specifically, we demonstrate that these two methods are equivalent under full gradient descent, but this equivalence breaks down with stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, we observe that Temperature Sampling converges more quickly but is prone to overfitting. We argue that this faster convergence is likely due to the lower variance in gradient estimations, as shown theoretically. Based on these insights, we propose Cooldown, a strategy that reduces sampling temperature during training, accelerating convergence without overfitting to low-resource languages. Our method is competitive with existing data re-weighting and offers computational efficiency.

Derivative-Free Guidance in Continuous and Discrete Diffusion Models with Soft Value-Based Decoding

Diffusion models excel at capturing the natural design spaces of images, molecules, DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. However, rather than merely generating designs that are natural, we often aim to optimize downstream reward functions while preserving the naturalness of these design spaces. Existing methods for achieving this goal often require ``differentiable'' proxy models (e.g., classifier guidance or DPS) or involve computationally expensive fine-tuning of diffusion models (e.g., classifier-free guidance, RL-based fine-tuning). In our work, we propose a new method to address these challenges. Our algorithm is an iterative sampling method that integrates soft value functions, which looks ahead to how intermediate noisy states lead to high rewards in the future, into the standard inference procedure of pre-trained diffusion models. Notably, our approach avoids fine-tuning generative models and eliminates the need to construct differentiable models. This enables us to (1) directly utilize non-differentiable features/reward feedback, commonly used in many scientific domains, and (2) apply our method to recent discrete diffusion models in a principled way. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across several domains, including image generation, molecule generation, and DNA/RNA sequence generation. The code is available at https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD{https://github.com/masa-ue/SVDD}.

Repeated Random Sampling for Minimizing the Time-to-Accuracy of Learning

Methods for carefully selecting or generating a small set of training data to learn from, i.e., data pruning, coreset selection, and data distillation, have been shown to be effective in reducing the ever-increasing cost of training neural networks. Behind this success are rigorously designed strategies for identifying informative training examples out of large datasets. However, these strategies come with additional computational costs associated with subset selection or data distillation before training begins, and furthermore, many are shown to even under-perform random sampling in high data compression regimes. As such, many data pruning, coreset selection, or distillation methods may not reduce 'time-to-accuracy', which has become a critical efficiency measure of training deep neural networks over large datasets. In this work, we revisit a powerful yet overlooked random sampling strategy to address these challenges and introduce an approach called Repeated Sampling of Random Subsets (RSRS or RS2), where we randomly sample the subset of training data for each epoch of model training. We test RS2 against thirty state-of-the-art data pruning and data distillation methods across four datasets including ImageNet. Our results demonstrate that RS2 significantly reduces time-to-accuracy compared to existing techniques. For example, when training on ImageNet in the high-compression regime (using less than 10% of the dataset each epoch), RS2 yields accuracy improvements up to 29% compared to competing pruning methods while offering a runtime reduction of 7x. Beyond the above meta-study, we provide a convergence analysis for RS2 and discuss its generalization capability. The primary goal of our work is to establish RS2 as a competitive baseline for future data selection or distillation techniques aimed at efficient training.

Automatic Data Augmentation via Invariance-Constrained Learning

Underlying data structures, such as symmetries or invariances to transformations, are often exploited to improve the solution of learning tasks. However, embedding these properties in models or learning algorithms can be challenging and computationally intensive. Data augmentation, on the other hand, induces these symmetries during training by applying multiple transformations to the input data. Despite its ubiquity, its effectiveness depends on the choices of which transformations to apply, when to do so, and how often. In fact, there is both empirical and theoretical evidence that the indiscriminate use of data augmentation can introduce biases that outweigh its benefits. This work tackles these issues by automatically adapting the data augmentation while solving the learning task. To do so, it formulates data augmentation as an invariance-constrained learning problem and leverages Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling to solve it. The result is a practical algorithm that not only does away with a priori searches for augmentation distributions, but also dynamically controls if and when data augmentation is applied. Our experiments illustrate the performance of this method, which achieves state-of-the-art results in automatic data augmentation benchmarks for CIFAR datasets. Furthermore, this approach can be used to gather insights on the actual symmetries underlying a learning task.

Refusal Tokens: A Simple Way to Calibrate Refusals in Large Language Models

A key component of building safe and reliable language models is enabling the models to appropriately refuse to follow certain instructions or answer certain questions. We may want models to output refusal messages for various categories of user queries, for example, ill-posed questions, instructions for committing illegal acts, or queries which require information past the model's knowledge horizon. Engineering models that refuse to answer such questions is complicated by the fact that an individual may want their model to exhibit varying levels of sensitivity for refusing queries of various categories, and different users may want different refusal rates. The current default approach involves training multiple models with varying proportions of refusal messages from each category to achieve the desired refusal rates, which is computationally expensive and may require training a new model to accommodate each user's desired preference over refusal rates. To address these challenges, we propose refusal tokens, one such token for each refusal category or a single refusal token, which are prepended to the model's responses during training. We then show how to increase or decrease the probability of generating the refusal token for each category during inference to steer the model's refusal behavior. Refusal tokens enable controlling a single model's refusal rates without the need of any further fine-tuning, but only by selectively intervening during generation.

Efficient estimation of multiple expectations with the same sample by adaptive importance sampling and control variates

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Inference Scaling scriptsizeFLaws: The Limits of LLM Resampling with Imperfect Verifiers

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Optimizing Dense Retrieval Model Training with Hard Negatives

Ranking has always been one of the top concerns in information retrieval researches. For decades, the lexical matching signal has dominated the ad-hoc retrieval process, but solely using this signal in retrieval may cause the vocabulary mismatch problem. In recent years, with the development of representation learning techniques, many researchers turn to Dense Retrieval (DR) models for better ranking performance. Although several existing DR models have already obtained promising results, their performance improvement heavily relies on the sampling of training examples. Many effective sampling strategies are not efficient enough for practical usage, and for most of them, there still lacks theoretical analysis in how and why performance improvement happens. To shed light on these research questions, we theoretically investigate different training strategies for DR models and try to explain why hard negative sampling performs better than random sampling. Through the analysis, we also find that there are many potential risks in static hard negative sampling, which is employed by many existing training methods. Therefore, we propose two training strategies named a Stable Training Algorithm for dense Retrieval (STAR) and a query-side training Algorithm for Directly Optimizing Ranking pErformance (ADORE), respectively. STAR improves the stability of DR training process by introducing random negatives. ADORE replaces the widely-adopted static hard negative sampling method with a dynamic one to directly optimize the ranking performance. Experimental results on two publicly available retrieval benchmark datasets show that either strategy gains significant improvements over existing competitive baselines and a combination of them leads to the best performance.

Awareness in Practice: Tensions in Access to Sensitive Attribute Data for Antidiscrimination

Organizations cannot address demographic disparities that they cannot see. Recent research on machine learning and fairness has emphasized that awareness of sensitive attributes, such as race and sex, is critical to the development of interventions. However, on the ground, the existence of these data cannot be taken for granted. This paper uses the domains of employment, credit, and healthcare in the United States to surface conditions that have shaped the availability of sensitive attribute data. For each domain, we describe how and when private companies collect or infer sensitive attribute data for antidiscrimination purposes. An inconsistent story emerges: Some companies are required by law to collect sensitive attribute data, while others are prohibited from doing so. Still others, in the absence of legal mandates, have determined that collection and imputation of these data are appropriate to address disparities. This story has important implications for fairness research and its future applications. If companies that mediate access to life opportunities are unable or hesitant to collect or infer sensitive attribute data, then proposed techniques to detect and mitigate bias in machine learning models might never be implemented outside the lab. We conclude that today's legal requirements and corporate practices, while highly inconsistent across domains, offer lessons for how to approach the collection and inference of sensitive data in appropriate circumstances. We urge stakeholders, including machine learning practitioners, to actively help chart a path forward that takes both policy goals and technical needs into account.

Promptagator: Few-shot Dense Retrieval From 8 Examples

Much recent research on information retrieval has focused on how to transfer from one task (typically with abundant supervised data) to various other tasks where supervision is limited, with the implicit assumption that it is possible to generalize from one task to all the rest. However, this overlooks the fact that there are many diverse and unique retrieval tasks, each targeting different search intents, queries, and search domains. In this paper, we suggest to work on Few-shot Dense Retrieval, a setting where each task comes with a short description and a few examples. To amplify the power of a few examples, we propose Prompt-base Query Generation for Retriever (Promptagator), which leverages large language models (LLM) as a few-shot query generator, and creates task-specific retrievers based on the generated data. Powered by LLM's generalization ability, Promptagator makes it possible to create task-specific end-to-end retrievers solely based on a few examples {without} using Natural Questions or MS MARCO to train %question generators or dual encoders. Surprisingly, LLM prompting with no more than 8 examples allows dual encoders to outperform heavily engineered models trained on MS MARCO like ColBERT v2 by more than 1.2 nDCG on average on 11 retrieval sets. Further training standard-size re-rankers using the same generated data yields another 5.0 point nDCG improvement. Our studies determine that query generation can be far more effective than previously observed, especially when a small amount of task-specific knowledge is given.

A Dataset for the Validation of Truth Inference Algorithms Suitable for Online Deployment

For the purpose of efficient and cost-effective large-scale data labeling, crowdsourcing is increasingly being utilized. To guarantee the quality of data labeling, multiple annotations need to be collected for each data sample, and truth inference algorithms have been developed to accurately infer the true labels. Despite previous studies having released public datasets to evaluate the efficacy of truth inference algorithms, these have typically focused on a single type of crowdsourcing task and neglected the temporal information associated with workers' annotation activities. These limitations significantly restrict the practical applicability of these algorithms, particularly in the context of long-term and online truth inference. In this paper, we introduce a substantial crowdsourcing annotation dataset collected from a real-world crowdsourcing platform. This dataset comprises approximately two thousand workers, one million tasks, and six million annotations. The data was gathered over a period of approximately six months from various types of tasks, and the timestamps of each annotation were preserved. We analyze the characteristics of the dataset from multiple perspectives and evaluate the effectiveness of several representative truth inference algorithms on this dataset. We anticipate that this dataset will stimulate future research on tracking workers' abilities over time in relation to different types of tasks, as well as enhancing online truth inference.

Feynman-Kac Correctors in Diffusion: Annealing, Guidance, and Product of Experts

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Martingale Posterior Neural Processes

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Fixed-Budget Differentially Private Best Arm Identification

We study best arm identification (BAI) in linear bandits in the fixed-budget regime under differential privacy constraints, when the arm rewards are supported on the unit interval. Given a finite budget T and a privacy parameter varepsilon>0, the goal is to minimise the error probability in finding the arm with the largest mean after T sampling rounds, subject to the constraint that the policy of the decision maker satisfies a certain {\em varepsilon-differential privacy} (varepsilon-DP) constraint. We construct a policy satisfying the varepsilon-DP constraint (called {\sc DP-BAI}) by proposing the principle of {\em maximum absolute determinants}, and derive an upper bound on its error probability. Furthermore, we derive a minimax lower bound on the error probability, and demonstrate that the lower and the upper bounds decay exponentially in T, with exponents in the two bounds matching order-wise in (a) the sub-optimality gaps of the arms, (b) varepsilon, and (c) the problem complexity that is expressible as the sum of two terms, one characterising the complexity of standard fixed-budget BAI (without privacy constraints), and the other accounting for the varepsilon-DP constraint. Additionally, we present some auxiliary results that contribute to the derivation of the lower bound on the error probability. These results, we posit, may be of independent interest and could prove instrumental in proving lower bounds on error probabilities in several other bandit problems. Whereas prior works provide results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime without privacy constraints or in the fixed-confidence regime with privacy constraints, our work fills the gap in the literature by providing the results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime under the varepsilon-DP constraint.

Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

DATED: Guidelines for Creating Synthetic Datasets for Engineering Design Applications

Exploiting the recent advancements in artificial intelligence, showcased by ChatGPT and DALL-E, in real-world applications necessitates vast, domain-specific, and publicly accessible datasets. Unfortunately, the scarcity of such datasets poses a significant challenge for researchers aiming to apply these breakthroughs in engineering design. Synthetic datasets emerge as a viable alternative. However, practitioners are often uncertain about generating high-quality datasets that accurately represent real-world data and are suitable for the intended downstream applications. This study aims to fill this knowledge gap by proposing comprehensive guidelines for generating, annotating, and validating synthetic datasets. The trade-offs and methods associated with each of these aspects are elaborated upon. Further, the practical implications of these guidelines are illustrated through the creation of a turbo-compressors dataset. The study underscores the importance of thoughtful sampling methods to ensure the appropriate size, diversity, utility, and realism of a dataset. It also highlights that design diversity does not equate to performance diversity or realism. By employing test sets that represent uniform, real, or task-specific samples, the influence of sample size and sampling strategy is scrutinized. Overall, this paper offers valuable insights for researchers intending to create and publish synthetic datasets for engineering design, thereby paving the way for more effective applications of AI advancements in the field. The code and data for the dataset and methods are made publicly accessible at https://github.com/cyrilpic/radcomp .

Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimization

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Large-scale Training Data Search for Object Re-identification

We consider a scenario where we have access to the target domain, but cannot afford on-the-fly training data annotation, and instead would like to construct an alternative training set from a large-scale data pool such that a competitive model can be obtained. We propose a search and pruning (SnP) solution to this training data search problem, tailored to object re-identification (re-ID), an application aiming to match the same object captured by different cameras. Specifically, the search stage identifies and merges clusters of source identities which exhibit similar distributions with the target domain. The second stage, subject to a budget, then selects identities and their images from the Stage I output, to control the size of the resulting training set for efficient training. The two steps provide us with training sets 80\% smaller than the source pool while achieving a similar or even higher re-ID accuracy. These training sets are also shown to be superior to a few existing search methods such as random sampling and greedy sampling under the same budget on training data size. If we release the budget, training sets resulting from the first stage alone allow even higher re-ID accuracy. We provide interesting discussions on the specificity of our method to the re-ID problem and particularly its role in bridging the re-ID domain gap. The code is available at https://github.com/yorkeyao/SnP.

Dataset Inference: Ownership Resolution in Machine Learning

With increasingly more data and computation involved in their training, machine learning models constitute valuable intellectual property. This has spurred interest in model stealing, which is made more practical by advances in learning with partial, little, or no supervision. Existing defenses focus on inserting unique watermarks in a model's decision surface, but this is insufficient: the watermarks are not sampled from the training distribution and thus are not always preserved during model stealing. In this paper, we make the key observation that knowledge contained in the stolen model's training set is what is common to all stolen copies. The adversary's goal, irrespective of the attack employed, is always to extract this knowledge or its by-products. This gives the original model's owner a strong advantage over the adversary: model owners have access to the original training data. We thus introduce dataset inference, the process of identifying whether a suspected model copy has private knowledge from the original model's dataset, as a defense against model stealing. We develop an approach for dataset inference that combines statistical testing with the ability to estimate the distance of multiple data points to the decision boundary. Our experiments on CIFAR10, SVHN, CIFAR100 and ImageNet show that model owners can claim with confidence greater than 99% that their model (or dataset as a matter of fact) was stolen, despite only exposing 50 of the stolen model's training points. Dataset inference defends against state-of-the-art attacks even when the adversary is adaptive. Unlike prior work, it does not require retraining or overfitting the defended model.

Harnessing large-language models to generate private synthetic text

Differentially private (DP) training methods like DP-SGD can protect sensitive training data by ensuring that ML models will not reveal private information. An alternative approach, which this paper studies, is to use a sensitive dataset to generate a new synthetic dataset which is differentially private with respect to the original data. Doing so has several advantages: synthetic data can be reused for other tasks (including for hyper parameter tuning), retained indefinitely, or shared with third parties without sacrificing privacy. However, obtaining DP data is much harder than introducing DP during training. To make it feasible for text, recent work has utilized public data by starting with a pre-trained generative language model and privately finetuning it on sensitive data. This model can be used to sample a DP synthetic dataset. While this strategy seems straightforward, executing it has proven problematic. Previous approaches either show significant performance loss, or have, as we show, critical design flaws. In this paper we demonstrate that a proper training objective along with tuning fewer parameters results in excellent DP synthetic data quality. Our approach is competitive with direct DP-training of downstream classifiers in terms of performance on downstream tasks. We also demonstrate that our DP synthetic data is not only useful for downstream classifier training, but also to tune those same models.

How Realistic Is Your Synthetic Data? Constraining Deep Generative Models for Tabular Data

Deep Generative Models (DGMs) have been shown to be powerful tools for generating tabular data, as they have been increasingly able to capture the complex distributions that characterize them. However, to generate realistic synthetic data, it is often not enough to have a good approximation of their distribution, as it also requires compliance with constraints that encode essential background knowledge on the problem at hand. In this paper, we address this limitation and show how DGMs for tabular data can be transformed into Constrained Deep Generative Models (C-DGMs), whose generated samples are guaranteed to be compliant with the given constraints. This is achieved by automatically parsing the constraints and transforming them into a Constraint Layer (CL) seamlessly integrated with the DGM. Our extensive experimental analysis with various DGMs and tasks reveals that standard DGMs often violate constraints, some exceeding 95% non-compliance, while their corresponding C-DGMs are never non-compliant. Then, we quantitatively demonstrate that, at training time, C-DGMs are able to exploit the background knowledge expressed by the constraints to outperform their standard counterparts with up to 6.5% improvement in utility and detection. Further, we show how our CL does not necessarily need to be integrated at training time, as it can be also used as a guardrail at inference time, still producing some improvements in the overall performance of the models. Finally, we show that our CL does not hinder the sample generation time of the models.

Hard Negatives or False Negatives: Correcting Pooling Bias in Training Neural Ranking Models

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have become one of the most important techniques in information retrieval (IR). Due to the limitation of relevance labels, the training of NRMs heavily relies on negative sampling over unlabeled data. In general machine learning scenarios, it has shown that training with hard negatives (i.e., samples that are close to positives) could lead to better performance. Surprisingly, we find opposite results from our empirical studies in IR. When sampling top-ranked results (excluding the labeled positives) as negatives from a stronger retriever, the performance of the learned NRM becomes even worse. Based on our investigation, the superficial reason is that there are more false negatives (i.e., unlabeled positives) in the top-ranked results with a stronger retriever, which may hurt the training process; The root is the existence of pooling bias in the dataset constructing process, where annotators only judge and label very few samples selected by some basic retrievers. Therefore, in principle, we can formulate the false negative issue in training NRMs as learning from labeled datasets with pooling bias. To solve this problem, we propose a novel Coupled Estimation Technique (CET) that learns both a relevance model and a selection model simultaneously to correct the pooling bias for training NRMs. Empirical results on three retrieval benchmarks show that NRMs trained with our technique can achieve significant gains on ranking effectiveness against other baseline strategies.

Does Sparsity Help in Learning Misspecified Linear Bandits?

Recently, the study of linear misspecified bandits has generated intriguing implications of the hardness of learning in bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, Du et al. (2020) show that even if a learner is given linear features in R^d that approximate the rewards in a bandit or RL with a uniform error of varepsilon, searching for an O(varepsilon)-optimal action requires pulling at least Omega(exp(d)) queries. Furthermore, Lattimore et al. (2020) show that a degraded O(varepsilond)-optimal solution can be learned within poly(d/varepsilon) queries. Yet it is unknown whether a structural assumption on the ground-truth parameter, such as sparsity, could break the varepsilond barrier. In this paper, we address this question by showing that algorithms can obtain O(varepsilon)-optimal actions by querying O(varepsilon^{-s}d^s) actions, where s is the sparsity parameter, removing the exp(d)-dependence. We then establish information-theoretical lower bounds, i.e., Omega(exp(s)), to show that our upper bound on sample complexity is nearly tight if one demands an error O(s^{delta}varepsilon) for 0<delta<1. For deltageq 1, we further show that poly(s/varepsilon) queries are possible when the linear features are "good" and even in general settings. These results provide a nearly complete picture of how sparsity can help in misspecified bandit learning and provide a deeper understanding of when linear features are "useful" for bandit and reinforcement learning with misspecification.

Crafting Distribution Shifts for Validation and Training in Single Source Domain Generalization

Single-source domain generalization attempts to learn a model on a source domain and deploy it to unseen target domains. Limiting access only to source domain data imposes two key challenges - how to train a model that can generalize and how to verify that it does. The standard practice of validation on the training distribution does not accurately reflect the model's generalization ability, while validation on the test distribution is a malpractice to avoid. In this work, we construct an independent validation set by transforming source domain images with a comprehensive list of augmentations, covering a broad spectrum of potential distribution shifts in target domains. We demonstrate a high correlation between validation and test performance for multiple methods and across various datasets. The proposed validation achieves a relative accuracy improvement over the standard validation equal to 15.4% or 1.6% when used for method selection or learning rate tuning, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce a novel family of methods that increase the shape bias through enhanced edge maps. To benefit from the augmentations during training and preserve the independence of the validation set, a k-fold validation process is designed to separate the augmentation types used in training and validation. The method that achieves the best performance on the augmented validation is selected from the proposed family. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on various standard benchmarks. Code at: https://github.com/NikosEfth/crafting-shifts

I'm Afraid I Can't Do That: Predicting Prompt Refusal in Black-Box Generative Language Models

Since the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT, generative language models have attracted extensive public attention. The increased usage has highlighted generative models' broad utility, but also revealed several forms of embedded bias. Some is induced by the pre-training corpus; but additional bias specific to generative models arises from the use of subjective fine-tuning to avoid generating harmful content. Fine-tuning bias may come from individual engineers and company policies, and affects which prompts the model chooses to refuse. In this experiment, we characterize ChatGPT's refusal behavior using a black-box attack. We first query ChatGPT with a variety of offensive and benign prompts (n=1,706), then manually label each response as compliance or refusal. Manual examination of responses reveals that refusal is not cleanly binary, and lies on a continuum; as such, we map several different kinds of responses to a binary of compliance or refusal. The small manually-labeled dataset is used to train a refusal classifier, which achieves an accuracy of 96%. Second, we use this refusal classifier to bootstrap a larger (n=10,000) dataset adapted from the Quora Insincere Questions dataset. With this machine-labeled data, we train a prompt classifier to predict whether ChatGPT will refuse a given question, without seeing ChatGPT's response. This prompt classifier achieves 76% accuracy on a test set of manually labeled questions (n=985). We examine our classifiers and the prompt n-grams that are most predictive of either compliance or refusal. Our datasets and code are available at https://github.com/maxwellreuter/chatgpt-refusals.

Quality Not Quantity: On the Interaction between Dataset Design and Robustness of CLIP

Web-crawled datasets have enabled remarkable generalization capabilities in recent image-text models such as CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image pre-training) or Flamingo, but little is known about the dataset creation processes. In this work, we introduce a testbed of six publicly available data sources - YFCC, LAION, Conceptual Captions, WIT, RedCaps, Shutterstock - to investigate how pre-training distributions induce robustness in CLIP. We find that the performance of the pre-training data varies substantially across distribution shifts, with no single data source dominating. Moreover, we systematically study the interactions between these data sources and find that combining multiple sources does not necessarily yield better models, but rather dilutes the robustness of the best individual data source. We complement our empirical findings with theoretical insights from a simple setting, where combining the training data also results in diluted robustness. In addition, our theoretical model provides a candidate explanation for the success of the CLIP-based data filtering technique recently employed in the LAION dataset. Overall our results demonstrate that simply gathering a large amount of data from the web is not the most effective way to build a pre-training dataset for robust generalization, necessitating further study into dataset design. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/clip_quality_not_quantity.

HarmAug: Effective Data Augmentation for Knowledge Distillation of Safety Guard Models

Safety guard models that detect malicious queries aimed at large language models (LLMs) are essential for ensuring the secure and responsible deployment of LLMs in real-world applications. However, deploying existing safety guard models with billions of parameters alongside LLMs on mobile devices is impractical due to substantial memory requirements and latency. To reduce this cost, we distill a large teacher safety guard model into a smaller one using a labeled dataset of instruction-response pairs with binary harmfulness labels. Due to the limited diversity of harmful instructions in the existing labeled dataset, naively distilled models tend to underperform compared to larger models. To bridge the gap between small and large models, we propose HarmAug, a simple yet effective data augmentation method that involves jailbreaking an LLM and prompting it to generate harmful instructions. Given a prompt such as, "Make a single harmful instruction prompt that would elicit offensive content", we add an affirmative prefix (e.g., "I have an idea for a prompt:") to the LLM's response. This encourages the LLM to continue generating the rest of the response, leading to sampling harmful instructions. Another LLM generates a response to the harmful instruction, and the teacher model labels the instruction-response pair. We empirically show that our HarmAug outperforms other relevant baselines. Moreover, a 435-million-parameter safety guard model trained with HarmAug achieves an F1 score comparable to larger models with over 7 billion parameters, and even outperforms them in AUPRC, while operating at less than 25% of their computational cost.

Towards Optimal Multi-draft Speculative Decoding

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an indispensable part of natural language processing tasks. However, autoregressive sampling has become an efficiency bottleneck. Multi-Draft Speculative Decoding (MDSD) is a recent approach where, when generating each token, a small draft model generates multiple drafts, and the target LLM verifies them in parallel, ensuring that the final output conforms to the target model distribution. The two main design choices in MDSD are the draft sampling method and the verification algorithm. For a fixed draft sampling method, the optimal acceptance rate is a solution to an optimal transport problem, but the complexity of this problem makes it difficult to solve for the optimal acceptance rate and measure the gap between existing verification algorithms and the theoretical upper bound. This paper discusses the dual of the optimal transport problem, providing a way to efficiently compute the optimal acceptance rate. For the first time, we measure the theoretical upper bound of MDSD efficiency for vocabulary sizes in the thousands and quantify the gap between existing verification algorithms and this bound. We also compare different draft sampling methods based on their optimal acceptance rates. Our results show that the draft sampling method strongly influences the optimal acceptance rate, with sampling without replacement outperforming sampling with replacement. Additionally, existing verification algorithms do not reach the theoretical upper bound for both without replacement and with replacement sampling. Our findings suggest that carefully designed draft sampling methods can potentially improve the optimal acceptance rate and enable the development of verification algorithms that closely match the theoretical upper bound.

Fantastic Generalization Measures are Nowhere to be Found

We study the notion of a generalization bound being uniformly tight, meaning that the difference between the bound and the population loss is small for all learning algorithms and all population distributions. Numerous generalization bounds have been proposed in the literature as potential explanations for the ability of neural networks to generalize in the overparameterized setting. However, in their paper ``Fantastic Generalization Measures and Where to Find Them,'' Jiang et al. (2020) examine more than a dozen generalization bounds, and show empirically that none of them are uniformly tight. This raises the question of whether uniformly-tight generalization bounds are at all possible in the overparameterized setting. We consider two types of generalization bounds: (1) bounds that may depend on the training set and the learned hypothesis (e.g., margin bounds). We prove mathematically that no such bound can be uniformly tight in the overparameterized setting; (2) bounds that may in addition also depend on the learning algorithm (e.g., stability bounds). For these bounds, we show a trade-off between the algorithm's performance and the bound's tightness. Namely, if the algorithm achieves good accuracy on certain distributions, then no generalization bound can be uniformly tight for it in the overparameterized setting. We explain how these formal results can, in our view, inform research on generalization bounds for neural networks, while stressing that other interpretations of these results are also possible.

Unintentional Unalignment: Likelihood Displacement in Direct Preference Optimization

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants are increasingly used for aligning language models with human preferences. Although these methods are designed to teach a model to generate preferred responses more frequently relative to dispreferred responses, prior work has observed that the likelihood of preferred responses often decreases during training. The current work sheds light on the causes and implications of this counter-intuitive phenomenon, which we term likelihood displacement. We demonstrate that likelihood displacement can be catastrophic, shifting probability mass from preferred responses to responses with an opposite meaning. As a simple example, training a model to prefer No over Never can sharply increase the probability of Yes. Moreover, when aligning the model to refuse unsafe prompts, we show that such displacement can unintentionally lead to unalignment, by shifting probability mass from preferred refusal responses to harmful responses (e.g., reducing the refusal rate of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 74.4% to 33.4%). We theoretically characterize that likelihood displacement is driven by preferences that induce similar embeddings, as measured by a centered hidden embedding similarity (CHES) score. Empirically, the CHES score enables identifying which training samples contribute most to likelihood displacement in a given dataset. Filtering out these samples effectively mitigated unintentional unalignment in our experiments. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of curating data with sufficiently distinct preferences, for which we believe the CHES score may prove valuable.

GenMol: A Drug Discovery Generalist with Discrete Diffusion

Drug discovery is a complex process that involves multiple scenarios and stages, such as fragment-constrained molecule generation, hit generation and lead optimization. However, existing molecular generative models can only tackle one or two of these scenarios and lack the flexibility to address various aspects of the drug discovery pipeline. In this paper, we present Generalist Molecular generative model (GenMol), a versatile framework that addresses these limitations by applying discrete diffusion to the Sequential Attachment-based Fragment Embedding (SAFE) molecular representation. GenMol generates SAFE sequences through non-autoregressive bidirectional parallel decoding, thereby allowing utilization of a molecular context that does not rely on the specific token ordering and enhanced computational efficiency. Moreover, under the discrete diffusion framework, we introduce fragment remasking, a strategy that optimizes molecules by replacing fragments with masked tokens and regenerating them, enabling effective exploration of chemical space. GenMol significantly outperforms the previous GPT-based model trained on SAFE representations in de novo generation and fragment-constrained generation, and achieves state-of-the-art performance in goal-directed hit generation and lead optimization. These experimental results demonstrate that GenMol can tackle a wide range of drug discovery tasks, providing a unified and versatile approach for molecular design.

Automatic Prompt Optimization Techniques: Exploring the Potential for Synthetic Data Generation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancement is heavily dependent on access to large-scale, high-quality training data. However, in specialized domains such as healthcare, data acquisition faces significant constraints due to privacy regulations, ethical considerations, and limited availability. While synthetic data generation offers a promising solution, conventional approaches typically require substantial real data for training generative models. The emergence of large-scale prompt-based models presents new opportunities for synthetic data generation without direct access to protected data. However, crafting effective prompts for domain-specific data generation remains challenging, and manual prompt engineering proves insufficient for achieving output with sufficient precision and authenticity. We review recent developments in automatic prompt optimization, following PRISMA guidelines. We analyze six peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024 that focus on automatic data-free prompt optimization methods. Our analysis reveals three approaches: feedback-driven, error-based, and control-theoretic. Although all approaches demonstrate promising capabilities in prompt refinement and adaptation, our findings suggest the need for an integrated framework that combines complementary optimization techniques to enhance synthetic data generation while minimizing manual intervention. We propose future research directions toward developing robust, iterative prompt optimization frameworks capable of improving the quality of synthetic data. This advancement can be particularly crucial for sensitive fields and in specialized domains where data access is restricted, potentially transforming how we approach synthetic data generation for AI development.

Concept Arithmetics for Circumventing Concept Inhibition in Diffusion Models

Motivated by ethical and legal concerns, the scientific community is actively developing methods to limit the misuse of Text-to-Image diffusion models for reproducing copyrighted, violent, explicit, or personal information in the generated images. Simultaneously, researchers put these newly developed safety measures to the test by assuming the role of an adversary to find vulnerabilities and backdoors in them. We use compositional property of diffusion models, which allows to leverage multiple prompts in a single image generation. This property allows us to combine other concepts, that should not have been affected by the inhibition, to reconstruct the vector, responsible for target concept generation, even though the direct computation of this vector is no longer accessible. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence why the proposed attacks are possible and discuss the implications of these findings for safe model deployment. We argue that it is essential to consider all possible approaches to image generation with diffusion models that can be employed by an adversary. Our work opens up the discussion about the implications of concept arithmetics and compositional inference for safety mechanisms in diffusion models. Content Advisory: This paper contains discussions and model-generated content that may be considered offensive. Reader discretion is advised. Project page: https://cs-people.bu.edu/vpetsiuk/arc

Where there's a will there's a way: ChatGPT is used more for science in countries where it is prohibited

Regulating AI is a key societal challenge, but which regulation methods are effective is unclear. This study measures the effectiveness of restricting AI services geographically, focusing on ChatGPT. OpenAI restricts ChatGPT access in several countries, including China and Russia. If restrictions are effective, ChatGPT use should be minimal in these countries. We measured use with a classifier based on distinctive word usage found in early versions of ChatGPT, e.g. "delve." We trained the classifier on pre- and post-ChatGPT "polished" abstracts and found it outperformed GPTZero and ZeroGPT on validation sets, including papers with self-reported AI use. Applying the classifier to preprints from Arxiv, BioRxiv, and MedRxiv showed ChatGPT was used in about 12.6% of preprints by August 2023, with 7.7% higher usage in restricted countries. The gap appeared before China's first major legal LLM became widely available. To test the possibility that, due to high demand, use in restricted countries would have been even higher without restrictions, we compared Asian countries with high expected demand (where English is not an official language) and found that use was higher in those with restrictions. ChatGPT use was correlated with higher views and downloads, but not citations or journal placement. Overall, restricting ChatGPT geographically has proven ineffective in science and possibly other domains, likely due to widespread workarounds.

Questioning the Survey Responses of Large Language Models

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Weak Proxies are Sufficient and Preferable for Fairness with Missing Sensitive Attributes

Evaluating fairness can be challenging in practice because the sensitive attributes of data are often inaccessible due to privacy constraints. The go-to approach that the industry frequently adopts is using off-the-shelf proxy models to predict the missing sensitive attributes, e.g. Meta [Alao et al., 2021] and Twitter [Belli et al., 2022]. Despite its popularity, there are three important questions unanswered: (1) Is directly using proxies efficacious in measuring fairness? (2) If not, is it possible to accurately evaluate fairness using proxies only? (3) Given the ethical controversy over inferring user private information, is it possible to only use weak (i.e. inaccurate) proxies in order to protect privacy? Our theoretical analyses show that directly using proxy models can give a false sense of (un)fairness. Second, we develop an algorithm that is able to measure fairness (provably) accurately with only three properly identified proxies. Third, we show that our algorithm allows the use of only weak proxies (e.g. with only 68.85%accuracy on COMPAS), adding an extra layer of protection on user privacy. Experiments validate our theoretical analyses and show our algorithm can effectively measure and mitigate bias. Our results imply a set of practical guidelines for practitioners on how to use proxies properly. Code is available at github.com/UCSC-REAL/fair-eval.

SoK: Can Synthetic Images Replace Real Data? A Survey of Utility and Privacy of Synthetic Image Generation

Advances in generative models have transformed the field of synthetic image generation for privacy-preserving data synthesis (PPDS). However, the field lacks a comprehensive survey and comparison of synthetic image generation methods across diverse settings. In particular, when we generate synthetic images for the purpose of training a classifier, there is a pipeline of generation-sampling-classification which takes private training as input and outputs the final classifier of interest. In this survey, we systematically categorize existing image synthesis methods, privacy attacks, and mitigations along this generation-sampling-classification pipeline. To empirically compare diverse synthesis approaches, we provide a benchmark with representative generative methods and use model-agnostic membership inference attacks (MIAs) as a measure of privacy risk. Through this study, we seek to answer critical questions in PPDS: Can synthetic data effectively replace real data? Which release strategy balances utility and privacy? Do mitigations improve the utility-privacy tradeoff? Which generative models perform best across different scenarios? With a systematic evaluation of diverse methods, our study provides actionable insights into the utility-privacy tradeoffs of synthetic data generation methods and guides the decision on optimal data releasing strategies for real-world applications.