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Sep 15

AutoTimes: Autoregressive Time Series Forecasters via Large Language Models

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

TRAD: Enhancing LLM Agents with Step-Wise Thought Retrieval and Aligned Decision

Numerous large language model (LLM) agents have been built for different tasks like web navigation and online shopping due to LLM's wide knowledge and text-understanding ability. Among these works, many of them utilize in-context examples to achieve generalization without the need for fine-tuning, while few of them have considered the problem of how to select and effectively utilize these examples. Recently, methods based on trajectory-level retrieval with task meta-data and using trajectories as in-context examples have been proposed to improve the agent's overall performance in some sequential decision making tasks. However, these methods can be problematic due to plausible examples retrieved without task-specific state transition dynamics and long input with plenty of irrelevant context. In this paper, we propose a novel framework (TRAD) to address these issues. TRAD first conducts Thought Retrieval, achieving step-level demonstration selection via thought matching, leading to more helpful demonstrations and less irrelevant input noise. Then, TRAD introduces Aligned Decision, complementing retrieved demonstration steps with their previous or subsequent steps, which enables tolerance for imperfect thought and provides a choice for balance between more context and less noise. Extensive experiments on ALFWorld and Mind2Web benchmarks show that TRAD not only outperforms state-of-the-art models but also effectively helps in reducing noise and promoting generalization. Furthermore, TRAD has been deployed in real-world scenarios of a global business insurance company and improves the success rate of robotic process automation.

Step-wise Adaptive Integration of Supervised Fine-tuning and Reinforcement Learning for Task-Specific LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) excel at mathematical reasoning and logical problem-solving. The current popular training paradigms primarily use supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance the models' reasoning abilities. However, when using SFT or RL alone, there are respective challenges: SFT may suffer from overfitting, while RL is prone to mode collapse. The state-of-the-art methods have proposed hybrid training schemes. However, static switching faces challenges such as poor generalization across different tasks and high dependence on data quality. In response to these challenges, inspired by the curriculum learning-quiz mechanism in human reasoning cultivation, We propose SASR, a step-wise adaptive hybrid training framework that theoretically unifies SFT and RL and dynamically balances the two throughout optimization. SASR uses SFT for initial warm-up to establish basic reasoning skills, and then uses an adaptive dynamic adjustment algorithm based on gradient norm and divergence relative to the original distribution to seamlessly integrate SFT with the online RL method GRPO. By monitoring the training status of LLMs and adjusting the training process in sequence, SASR ensures a smooth transition between training schemes, maintaining core reasoning abilities while exploring different paths. Experimental results demonstrate that SASR outperforms SFT, RL, and static hybrid training methods.

CTRLS: Chain-of-Thought Reasoning via Latent State-Transition

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning enables large language models (LLMs) to break down complex problems into interpretable intermediate steps, significantly enhancing model transparency and performance in reasoning tasks. However, conventional CoT methods rely on heuristic sampling without structured modeling of reasoning transitions, constraining their ability to systematically explore and discover diverse and effective reasoning trajectories. In this work, we introduce CTRLS, a framework that formulates CoT reasoning as a Markov decision process (MDP) with latent state transitions, enabling principled and state-aware exploration via distributional reinforcement learning. By modelling reasoning actions as explicit probability distributions in latent space, our approach explicitly models epistemic uncertainty, facilitating robust exploration of the reasoning space. As part of our framework, we introduce an on-policy reinforcement learning strategy incorporating epsilon-greedy exploration and entropy-based regularization to iteratively refine latent state transitions without requiring additional fine-tuning of the underlying LLM. Theoretical analyses provide evidence lower bounds (ELBO), theoretically grounding our transition-aware modeling of latent reasoning dynamics. Further experiments demonstrate improvements in reasoning accuracy, diversity, and exploration efficiency across benchmark reasoning tasks.

BOP Challenge 2024 on Model-Based and Model-Free 6D Object Pose Estimation

We present the evaluation methodology, datasets and results of the BOP Challenge 2024, the sixth in a series of public competitions organized to capture the state of the art in 6D object pose estimation and related tasks. In 2024, our goal was to transition BOP from lab-like setups to real-world scenarios. First, we introduced new model-free tasks, where no 3D object models are available and methods need to onboard objects just from provided reference videos. Second, we defined a new, more practical 6D object detection task where identities of objects visible in a test image are not provided as input. Third, we introduced new BOP-H3 datasets recorded with high-resolution sensors and AR/VR headsets, closely resembling real-world scenarios. BOP-H3 include 3D models and onboarding videos to support both model-based and model-free tasks. Participants competed on seven challenge tracks, each defined by a task, object onboarding setup, and dataset group. Notably, the best 2024 method for model-based 6D localization of unseen objects (FreeZeV2.1) achieves 22% higher accuracy on BOP-Classic-Core than the best 2023 method (GenFlow), and is only 4% behind the best 2023 method for seen objects (GPose2023) although being significantly slower (24.9 vs 2.7s per image). A more practical 2024 method for this task is Co-op which takes only 0.8s per image and is 25X faster and 13% more accurate than GenFlow. Methods have a similar ranking on 6D detection as on 6D localization but higher run time. On model-based 2D detection of unseen objects, the best 2024 method (MUSE) achieves 21% relative improvement compared to the best 2023 method (CNOS). However, the 2D detection accuracy for unseen objects is still noticealy (-53%) behind the accuracy for seen objects (GDet2023). The online evaluation system stays open and is available at http://bop.felk.cvut.cz/

Binary Opacity Grids: Capturing Fine Geometric Detail for Mesh-Based View Synthesis

While surface-based view synthesis algorithms are appealing due to their low computational requirements, they often struggle to reproduce thin structures. In contrast, more expensive methods that model the scene's geometry as a volumetric density field (e.g. NeRF) excel at reconstructing fine geometric detail. However, density fields often represent geometry in a "fuzzy" manner, which hinders exact localization of the surface. In this work, we modify density fields to encourage them to converge towards surfaces, without compromising their ability to reconstruct thin structures. First, we employ a discrete opacity grid representation instead of a continuous density field, which allows opacity values to discontinuously transition from zero to one at the surface. Second, we anti-alias by casting multiple rays per pixel, which allows occlusion boundaries and subpixel structures to be modelled without using semi-transparent voxels. Third, we minimize the binary entropy of the opacity values, which facilitates the extraction of surface geometry by encouraging opacity values to binarize towards the end of training. Lastly, we develop a fusion-based meshing strategy followed by mesh simplification and appearance model fitting. The compact meshes produced by our model can be rendered in real-time on mobile devices and achieve significantly higher view synthesis quality compared to existing mesh-based approaches.

A* Search Without Expansions: Learning Heuristic Functions with Deep Q-Networks

Efficiently solving problems with large action spaces using A* search has been of importance to the artificial intelligence community for decades. This is because the computation and memory requirements of A* search grow linearly with the size of the action space. This burden becomes even more apparent when A* search uses a heuristic function learned by computationally expensive function approximators, such as deep neural networks. To address this problem, we introduce Q* search, a search algorithm that uses deep Q-networks to guide search in order to take advantage of the fact that the sum of the transition costs and heuristic values of the children of a node can be computed with a single forward pass through a deep Q-network without explicitly generating those children. This significantly reduces computation time and requires only one node to be generated per iteration. We use Q* search to solve the Rubik's cube when formulated with a large action space that includes 1872 meta-actions and find that this 157-fold increase in the size of the action space incurs less than a 4-fold increase in computation time and less than a 3-fold increase in number of nodes generated when performing Q* search. Furthermore, Q* search is up to 129 times faster and generates up to 1288 times fewer nodes than A* search. Finally, although obtaining admissible heuristic functions from deep neural networks is an ongoing area of research, we prove that Q* search is guaranteed to find a shortest path given a heuristic function that neither overestimates the cost of a shortest path nor underestimates the transition cost.

Learning Navigational Visual Representations with Semantic Map Supervision

Being able to perceive the semantics and the spatial structure of the environment is essential for visual navigation of a household robot. However, most existing works only employ visual backbones pre-trained either with independent images for classification or with self-supervised learning methods to adapt to the indoor navigation domain, neglecting the spatial relationships that are essential to the learning of navigation. Inspired by the behavior that humans naturally build semantically and spatially meaningful cognitive maps in their brains during navigation, in this paper, we propose a novel navigational-specific visual representation learning method by contrasting the agent's egocentric views and semantic maps (Ego^2-Map). We apply the visual transformer as the backbone encoder and train the model with data collected from the large-scale Habitat-Matterport3D environments. Ego^2-Map learning transfers the compact and rich information from a map, such as objects, structure and transition, to the agent's egocentric representations for navigation. Experiments show that agents using our learned representations on object-goal navigation outperform recent visual pre-training methods. Moreover, our representations significantly improve vision-and-language navigation in continuous environments for both high-level and low-level action spaces, achieving new state-of-the-art results of 47% SR and 41% SPL on the test server.

The X-ray Integral Field Unit at the end of the Athena reformulation phase

The Athena mission entered a redefinition phase in July 2022, driven by the imperative to reduce the mission cost at completion for the European Space Agency below an acceptable target, while maintaining the flagship nature of its science return. This notably called for a complete redesign of the X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) cryogenic architecture towards a simpler active cooling chain. Passive cooling via successive radiative panels at spacecraft level is now used to provide a 50 K thermal environment to an X-IFU owned cryostat. 4.5 K cooling is achieved via a single remote active cryocooler unit, while a multi-stage Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerator ensures heat lift down to the 50 mK required by the detectors. Amidst these changes, the core concept of the readout chain remains robust, employing Transition Edge Sensor microcalorimeters and a SQUID-based Time-Division Multiplexing scheme. Noteworthy is the introduction of a slower pixel. This enables an increase in the multiplexing factor (from 34 to 48) without compromising the instrument energy resolution, hence keeping significant system margins to the new 4 eV resolution requirement. This allows reducing the number of channels by more than a factor two, and thus the resource demands on the system, while keeping a 4' field of view (compared to 5' before). In this article, we will give an overview of this new architecture, before detailing its anticipated performances. Finally, we will present the new X-IFU schedule, with its short term focus on demonstration activities towards a mission adoption in early 2027.

A Reinforcement Learning Method for Environments with Stochastic Variables: Post-Decision Proximal Policy Optimization with Dual Critic Networks

This paper presents Post-Decision Proximal Policy Optimization (PDPPO), a novel variation of the leading deep reinforcement learning method, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). The PDPPO state transition process is divided into two steps: a deterministic step resulting in the post-decision state and a stochastic step leading to the next state. Our approach incorporates post-decision states and dual critics to reduce the problem's dimensionality and enhance the accuracy of value function estimation. Lot-sizing is a mixed integer programming problem for which we exemplify such dynamics. The objective of lot-sizing is to optimize production, delivery fulfillment, and inventory levels in uncertain demand and cost parameters. This paper evaluates the performance of PDPPO across various environments and configurations. Notably, PDPPO with a dual critic architecture achieves nearly double the maximum reward of vanilla PPO in specific scenarios, requiring fewer episode iterations and demonstrating faster and more consistent learning across different initializations. On average, PDPPO outperforms PPO in environments with a stochastic component in the state transition. These results support the benefits of using a post-decision state. Integrating this post-decision state in the value function approximation leads to more informed and efficient learning in high-dimensional and stochastic environments.

Towards Automatic Boundary Detection for Human-AI Collaborative Hybrid Essay in Education

The recent large language models (LLMs), e.g., ChatGPT, have been able to generate human-like and fluent responses when provided with specific instructions. While admitting the convenience brought by technological advancement, educators also have concerns that students might leverage LLMs to complete their writing assignments and pass them off as their original work. Although many AI content detection studies have been conducted as a result of such concerns, most of these prior studies modeled AI content detection as a classification problem, assuming that a text is either entirely human-written or entirely AI-generated. In this study, we investigated AI content detection in a rarely explored yet realistic setting where the text to be detected is collaboratively written by human and generative LLMs (i.e., hybrid text). We first formalized the detection task as identifying the transition points between human-written content and AI-generated content from a given hybrid text (boundary detection). Then we proposed a two-step approach where we (1) separated AI-generated content from human-written content during the encoder training process; and (2) calculated the distances between every two adjacent prototypes and assumed that the boundaries exist between the two adjacent prototypes that have the furthest distance from each other. Through extensive experiments, we observed the following main findings: (1) the proposed approach consistently outperformed the baseline methods across different experiment settings; (2) the encoder training process can significantly boost the performance of the proposed approach; (3) when detecting boundaries for single-boundary hybrid essays, the proposed approach could be enhanced by adopting a relatively large prototype size, leading to a 22% improvement in the In-Domain evaluation and an 18% improvement in the Out-of-Domain evaluation.

Evolutionary Perspectives on the Evaluation of LLM-Based AI Agents: A Comprehensive Survey

The advent of large language models (LLMs), such as GPT, Gemini, and DeepSeek, has significantly advanced natural language processing, giving rise to sophisticated chatbots capable of diverse language-related tasks. The transition from these traditional LLM chatbots to more advanced AI agents represents a pivotal evolutionary step. However, existing evaluation frameworks often blur the distinctions between LLM chatbots and AI agents, leading to confusion among researchers selecting appropriate benchmarks. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces a systematic analysis of current evaluation approaches, grounded in an evolutionary perspective. We provide a detailed analytical framework that clearly differentiates AI agents from LLM chatbots along five key aspects: complex environment, multi-source instructor, dynamic feedback, multi-modal perception, and advanced capability. Further, we categorize existing evaluation benchmarks based on external environments driving forces, and resulting advanced internal capabilities. For each category, we delineate relevant evaluation attributes, presented comprehensively in practical reference tables. Finally, we synthesize current trends and outline future evaluation methodologies through four critical lenses: environment, agent, evaluator, and metrics. Our findings offer actionable guidance for researchers, facilitating the informed selection and application of benchmarks in AI agent evaluation, thus fostering continued advancement in this rapidly evolving research domain.

Solving robust MDPs as a sequence of static RL problems

Designing control policies whose performance level is guaranteed to remain above a given threshold in a span of environments is a critical feature for the adoption of reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world applications. The search for such robust policies is a notoriously difficult problem, related to the so-called dynamic model of transition function uncertainty, where the environment dynamics are allowed to change at each time step. But in practical cases, one is rather interested in robustness to a span of static transition models throughout interaction episodes. The static model is known to be harder to solve than the dynamic one, and seminal algorithms, such as robust value iteration, as well as most recent works on deep robust RL, build upon the dynamic model. In this work, we propose to revisit the static model. We suggest an analysis of why solving the static model under some mild hypotheses is a reasonable endeavor, based on an equivalence with the dynamic model, and formalize the general intuition that robust MDPs can be solved by tackling a series of static problems. We introduce a generic meta-algorithm called IWOCS, which incrementally identifies worst-case transition models so as to guide the search for a robust policy. Discussion on IWOCS sheds light on new ways to decouple policy optimization and adversarial transition functions and opens new perspectives for analysis. We derive a deep RL version of IWOCS and demonstrate it is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms on classical benchmarks.