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Running
Running
| model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper | |
| TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.535,0.435,0.63,-0.003,-0.021,0.015 | |
| TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.6,0.77,0.03,0.009,0.05 | |
| TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.016,-0.033,0.063 | |
| TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.03,0.073 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 | |
| TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.835,0.95,0.148,0.11,0.185 | |
| TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.318,0.262,0.374 | |
| TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.304,0.256,0.352 | |
| TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.558,0.449,0.655 | |
| TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.421,0.365,0.479 | |
| TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 | |
| TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.617,0.565,0.663 | |
| TiRex,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.619,0.567,0.666 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.465,0.37,0.565,0.003,-0.016,0.021 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.67,0.033,0.007,0.059 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.018,-0.03,0.063 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.665,0.825,0.052,0.029,0.077 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.77,0.695,0.845,0.064,0.042,0.086 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.845,0.96,0.15,0.115,0.184 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.32,0.263,0.377 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.305,0.256,0.358 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.558,0.449,0.655 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.423,0.364,0.483 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.468,0.422,0.519 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.618,0.565,0.664 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.62,0.567,0.668 | |
| Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.23,0.4,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 | |
| Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.515,-0.034,-0.063,-0.007 | |
| Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.015,-0.073,0.036 | |
| Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.02,-0.003,0.044 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.52,0.695,0.032,0.003,0.061 | |
| Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.121,0.079,0.163 | |
| Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.297,0.235,0.356 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.282,0.23,0.336 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.545,0.433,0.645 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.403,0.341,0.465 | |
| Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.397,0.501 | |
| Toto-1.0,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.605,0.55,0.652 | |
| Toto-1.0,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.607,0.551,0.656 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.016,-0.067,0.032 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.018,-0.068,0.029 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.015,-0.037,0.068 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.017,0.084 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.046,0.0,0.092 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.134,0.09,0.175 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.795,0.715,0.875,0.307,0.247,0.365 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.293,0.239,0.348 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.554,0.442,0.654 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.412,0.352,0.471 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.935,0.995,0.458,0.412,0.506 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.611,0.556,0.657 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.98,0.613,0.557,0.661 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.078,-0.031 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.175,0.335,-0.055,-0.083,-0.029 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.021,-0.046,0.003 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.091,0.017 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.865,0.79,0.93,0.103,0.062,0.14 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.282,0.222,0.343 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.267,0.214,0.322 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.537,0.421,0.639 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.391,0.33,0.454 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.541,0.645 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.599,0.542,0.649 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.23,0.155,0.305,-0.068,-0.094,-0.044 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.39,0.305,0.48,-0.033,-0.065,-0.003 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.049,-0.101,-0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.785,0.705,0.865,0.092,0.051,0.128 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.274,0.215,0.332 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.258,0.207,0.31 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.531,0.418,0.635 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.384,0.323,0.446 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.537,0.639 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.594,0.539,0.643 | |
| Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.05,0.165,-0.173,-0.226,-0.124 | |
| Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.095,0.04,0.155,-0.176,-0.225,-0.13 | |
| Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.085 | |
| Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.155,-0.212,-0.099 | |
| Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.135,0.07,0.21,-0.114,-0.163,-0.066 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.215,0.135,0.295,-0.101,-0.147,-0.053 | |
| Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.2,0.124,0.268 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.183,0.114,0.245 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.486,0.353,0.603 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.321,0.25,0.391 | |
| Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.374,0.322,0.43 | |
| Sundial-Base,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.55,0.489,0.605 | |
| Sundial-Base,Drift,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.553,0.487,0.611 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.466,-0.598,-0.355 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.47,-0.606,-0.356 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.422,-0.552,-0.307 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.205,0.125,0.285,-0.443,-0.575,-0.329 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.393,-0.521,-0.285 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.377,-0.496,-0.274 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.25,-0.366,-0.142 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.41,0.6,-0.021,-0.061,0.02 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.755,0.67,0.835,0.38,0.234,0.517 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.151,0.111,0.194 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.895,0.218,0.166,0.273 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.438,0.386,0.484 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.49 | |
| AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.436,-0.543,-0.345 | |
| AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.44,-0.557,-0.344 | |
| AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.393,-0.505,-0.299 | |
| AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.414,-0.533,-0.315 | |
| AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.365,-0.476,-0.272 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.348,-0.449,-0.261 | |
| AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.224,-0.324,-0.129 | |
| AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.4,0.59,0.021,-0.021,0.058 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.685,0.59,0.775,0.381,0.235,0.518 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.169,0.119,0.218 | |
| AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.825,0.93,0.234,0.184,0.287 | |
| AutoARIMA,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.449,0.389,0.499 | |
| AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.453,0.393,0.505 | |
| AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.261,-1.901,-0.816 | |
| AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-1.264,-1.902,-0.814 | |
| AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.198,-1.815,-0.764 | |
| AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.22,-1.242,-1.889,-0.793 | |
| AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.158,-1.773,-0.727 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.133,-1.742,-0.717 | |
| AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.945,-1.517,-0.545 | |
| AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.245,0.165,0.33,-0.612,-1.072,-0.305 | |
| AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.315,0.225,0.41,-0.616,-1.074,-0.308 | |
| AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.384,-0.762,-0.111 | |
| AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.535,0.715,-0.27,-0.651,-0.012 | |
| AutoETS,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.059,-0.228,0.255 | |
| AutoETS,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.062,-0.223,0.256 | |
| AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.728,-0.919,-0.575 | |
| AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.732,-0.934,-0.571 | |
| AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.676,-0.87,-0.517 | |
| AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.701,-0.889,-0.542 | |
| AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.642,-0.83,-0.491 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.622,-0.804,-0.477 | |
| AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.473,-0.641,-0.333 | |
| AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.178,-0.24,-0.124 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.203,-0.279,-0.135 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.278,0.1,0.433 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.078,0.007,0.148 | |
| AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.338,0.277,0.392 | |
| AutoTheta,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.342,0.277,0.399 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.88,-1.078,-0.73 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.818,-1.003,-0.658 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.005,0.065,-0.846,-1.025,-0.7 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.961,-0.632 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.598,-0.753,-0.474 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.105,0.23,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.07,0.175,-0.306,-0.403,-0.225 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.375,0.285,0.465,0.213,0.012,0.394 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.085,-0.174,-0.008 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.685,0.61,0.755,0.281,0.208,0.351 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.77,0.69,0.86,0.286,0.205,0.362 | |
| Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.608,-1.963,-1.301 | |
| Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.615,-1.976,-1.298 | |
| Naive,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.53,-1.877,-1.224 | |
| Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.568,-1.912,-1.254 | |
| Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.478,-1.816,-1.178 | |
| Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.449,-1.767,-1.16 | |
| Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-1.224,-1.535,-0.956 | |
| Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.779,-0.938,-0.629 | |
| Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.816,-0.997,-0.636 | |
| Naive,AutoETS,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.063,-0.343,0.186 | |
| Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.51,-0.644,-0.383 | |
| Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.315,0.245,0.39,-0.391,-0.54,-0.263 | |
| Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.007,-0.018,0.028 | |
| Drift,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.626,-1.992,-1.31 | |
| Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.633,-2.008,-1.308 | |
| Drift,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.547,-1.905,-1.228 | |
| Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.02,0.1,-1.585,-1.953,-1.257 | |
| Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.495,-1.849,-1.182 | |
| Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.465,-1.797,-1.171 | |
| Drift,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-1.239,-1.572,-0.95 | |
| Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.791,-0.961,-0.632 | |
| Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.828,-1.021,-0.649 | |
| Drift,AutoETS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.066,-0.344,0.183 | |
| Drift,AutoTheta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.52,-0.664,-0.384 | |
| Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.23,0.14,0.31,-0.401,-0.567,-0.258 | |
| Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.007,-0.029,0.018 | |
| Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |