peacock-data-public-datasets-idc-cronscript
/
venv
/lib
/python3.10
/site-packages
/scipy
/stats
/_fit.py
import warnings | |
from collections import namedtuple | |
import numpy as np | |
from scipy import optimize, stats | |
from scipy._lib._util import check_random_state | |
def _combine_bounds(name, user_bounds, shape_domain, integral): | |
"""Intersection of user-defined bounds and distribution PDF/PMF domain""" | |
user_bounds = np.atleast_1d(user_bounds) | |
if user_bounds[0] > user_bounds[1]: | |
message = (f"There are no values for `{name}` on the interval " | |
f"{list(user_bounds)}.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
bounds = (max(user_bounds[0], shape_domain[0]), | |
min(user_bounds[1], shape_domain[1])) | |
if integral and (np.ceil(bounds[0]) > np.floor(bounds[1])): | |
message = (f"There are no integer values for `{name}` on the interval " | |
f"defined by the user-provided bounds and the domain " | |
"of the distribution.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
elif not integral and (bounds[0] > bounds[1]): | |
message = (f"There are no values for `{name}` on the interval " | |
f"defined by the user-provided bounds and the domain " | |
"of the distribution.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if not np.all(np.isfinite(bounds)): | |
message = (f"The intersection of user-provided bounds for `{name}` " | |
f"and the domain of the distribution is not finite. Please " | |
f"provide finite bounds for shape `{name}` in `bounds`.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
return bounds | |
class FitResult: | |
r"""Result of fitting a discrete or continuous distribution to data | |
Attributes | |
---------- | |
params : namedtuple | |
A namedtuple containing the maximum likelihood estimates of the | |
shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the | |
distribution. | |
success : bool or None | |
Whether the optimizer considered the optimization to terminate | |
successfully or not. | |
message : str or None | |
Any status message provided by the optimizer. | |
""" | |
def __init__(self, dist, data, discrete, res): | |
self._dist = dist | |
self._data = data | |
self.discrete = discrete | |
self.pxf = getattr(dist, "pmf", None) or getattr(dist, "pdf", None) | |
shape_names = [] if dist.shapes is None else dist.shapes.split(", ") | |
if not discrete: | |
FitParams = namedtuple('FitParams', shape_names + ['loc', 'scale']) | |
else: | |
FitParams = namedtuple('FitParams', shape_names + ['loc']) | |
self.params = FitParams(*res.x) | |
# Optimizer can report success even when nllf is infinite | |
if res.success and not np.isfinite(self.nllf()): | |
res.success = False | |
res.message = ("Optimization converged to parameter values that " | |
"are inconsistent with the data.") | |
self.success = getattr(res, "success", None) | |
self.message = getattr(res, "message", None) | |
def __repr__(self): | |
keys = ["params", "success", "message"] | |
m = max(map(len, keys)) + 1 | |
return '\n'.join([key.rjust(m) + ': ' + repr(getattr(self, key)) | |
for key in keys if getattr(self, key) is not None]) | |
def nllf(self, params=None, data=None): | |
"""Negative log-likelihood function | |
Evaluates the negative of the log-likelihood function of the provided | |
data at the provided parameters. | |
Parameters | |
---------- | |
params : tuple, optional | |
The shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the | |
distribution as a single tuple. Default is the maximum likelihood | |
estimates (``self.params``). | |
data : array_like, optional | |
The data for which the log-likelihood function is to be evaluated. | |
Default is the data to which the distribution was fit. | |
Returns | |
------- | |
nllf : float | |
The negative of the log-likelihood function. | |
""" | |
params = params if params is not None else self.params | |
data = data if data is not None else self._data | |
return self._dist.nnlf(theta=params, x=data) | |
def plot(self, ax=None, *, plot_type="hist"): | |
"""Visually compare the data against the fitted distribution. | |
Available only if `matplotlib` is installed. | |
Parameters | |
---------- | |
ax : `matplotlib.axes.Axes` | |
Axes object to draw the plot onto, otherwise uses the current Axes. | |
plot_type : {"hist", "qq", "pp", "cdf"} | |
Type of plot to draw. Options include: | |
- "hist": Superposes the PDF/PMF of the fitted distribution | |
over a normalized histogram of the data. | |
- "qq": Scatter plot of theoretical quantiles against the | |
empirical quantiles. Specifically, the x-coordinates are the | |
values of the fitted distribution PPF evaluated at the | |
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is the | |
number of data points, and the y-coordinates are the sorted | |
data points. | |
- "pp": Scatter plot of theoretical percentiles against the | |
observed percentiles. Specifically, the x-coordinates are the | |
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is | |
the number of data points, and the y-coordinates are the values | |
of the fitted distribution CDF evaluated at the sorted | |
data points. | |
- "cdf": Superposes the CDF of the fitted distribution over the | |
empirical CDF. Specifically, the x-coordinates of the empirical | |
CDF are the sorted data points, and the y-coordinates are the | |
percentiles ``(np.arange(1, n) - 0.5)/n``, where ``n`` is | |
the number of data points. | |
Returns | |
------- | |
ax : `matplotlib.axes.Axes` | |
The matplotlib Axes object on which the plot was drawn. | |
Examples | |
-------- | |
>>> import numpy as np | |
>>> from scipy import stats | |
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed | |
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng() | |
>>> data = stats.nbinom(5, 0.5).rvs(size=1000, random_state=rng) | |
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)] | |
>>> res = stats.fit(stats.nbinom, data, bounds) | |
>>> ax = res.plot() # save matplotlib Axes object | |
The `matplotlib.axes.Axes` object can be used to customize the plot. | |
See `matplotlib.axes.Axes` documentation for details. | |
>>> ax.set_xlabel('number of trials') # customize axis label | |
>>> ax.get_children()[0].set_linewidth(5) # customize line widths | |
>>> ax.legend() | |
>>> plt.show() | |
""" | |
try: | |
import matplotlib # noqa: F401 | |
except ModuleNotFoundError as exc: | |
message = "matplotlib must be installed to use method `plot`." | |
raise ModuleNotFoundError(message) from exc | |
plots = {'histogram': self._hist_plot, 'qq': self._qq_plot, | |
'pp': self._pp_plot, 'cdf': self._cdf_plot, | |
'hist': self._hist_plot} | |
if plot_type.lower() not in plots: | |
message = f"`plot_type` must be one of {set(plots.keys())}" | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
plot = plots[plot_type.lower()] | |
if ax is None: | |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt | |
ax = plt.gca() | |
fit_params = np.atleast_1d(self.params) | |
return plot(ax=ax, fit_params=fit_params) | |
def _hist_plot(self, ax, fit_params): | |
from matplotlib.ticker import MaxNLocator | |
support = self._dist.support(*fit_params) | |
lb = support[0] if np.isfinite(support[0]) else min(self._data) | |
ub = support[1] if np.isfinite(support[1]) else max(self._data) | |
pxf = "PMF" if self.discrete else "PDF" | |
if self.discrete: | |
x = np.arange(lb, ub + 2) | |
y = self.pxf(x, *fit_params) | |
ax.vlines(x[:-1], 0, y[:-1], label='Fitted Distribution PMF', | |
color='C0') | |
options = dict(density=True, bins=x, align='left', color='C1') | |
ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(MaxNLocator(integer=True)) | |
ax.set_xlabel('k') | |
ax.set_ylabel('PMF') | |
else: | |
x = np.linspace(lb, ub, 200) | |
y = self.pxf(x, *fit_params) | |
ax.plot(x, y, '--', label='Fitted Distribution PDF', color='C0') | |
options = dict(density=True, bins=50, align='mid', color='C1') | |
ax.set_xlabel('x') | |
ax.set_ylabel('PDF') | |
if len(self._data) > 50 or self.discrete: | |
ax.hist(self._data, label="Histogram of Data", **options) | |
else: | |
ax.plot(self._data, np.zeros_like(self._data), "*", | |
label='Data', color='C1') | |
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ {pxf} and Histogram") | |
ax.legend(*ax.get_legend_handles_labels()) | |
return ax | |
def _qp_plot(self, ax, fit_params, qq): | |
data = np.sort(self._data) | |
ps = self._plotting_positions(len(self._data)) | |
if qq: | |
qp = "Quantiles" | |
plot_type = 'Q-Q' | |
x = self._dist.ppf(ps, *fit_params) | |
y = data | |
else: | |
qp = "Percentiles" | |
plot_type = 'P-P' | |
x = ps | |
y = self._dist.cdf(data, *fit_params) | |
ax.plot(x, y, '.', label=f'Fitted Distribution {plot_type}', | |
color='C0', zorder=1) | |
xlim = ax.get_xlim() | |
ylim = ax.get_ylim() | |
lim = [min(xlim[0], ylim[0]), max(xlim[1], ylim[1])] | |
if not qq: | |
lim = max(lim[0], 0), min(lim[1], 1) | |
if self.discrete and qq: | |
q_min, q_max = int(lim[0]), int(lim[1]+1) | |
q_ideal = np.arange(q_min, q_max) | |
# q_ideal = np.unique(self._dist.ppf(ps, *fit_params)) | |
ax.plot(q_ideal, q_ideal, 'o', label='Reference', color='k', | |
alpha=0.25, markerfacecolor='none', clip_on=True) | |
elif self.discrete and not qq: | |
# The intent of this is to match the plot that would be produced | |
# if x were continuous on [0, 1] and y were cdf(ppf(x)). | |
# It can be approximated by letting x = np.linspace(0, 1, 1000), | |
# but this might not look great when zooming in. The vertical | |
# portions are included to indicate where the transition occurs | |
# where the data completely obscures the horizontal portions. | |
p_min, p_max = lim | |
a, b = self._dist.support(*fit_params) | |
p_min = max(p_min, 0 if np.isfinite(a) else 1e-3) | |
p_max = min(p_max, 1 if np.isfinite(b) else 1-1e-3) | |
q_min, q_max = self._dist.ppf([p_min, p_max], *fit_params) | |
qs = np.arange(q_min-1, q_max+1) | |
ps = self._dist.cdf(qs, *fit_params) | |
ax.step(ps, ps, '-', label='Reference', color='k', alpha=0.25, | |
clip_on=True) | |
else: | |
ax.plot(lim, lim, '-', label='Reference', color='k', alpha=0.25, | |
clip_on=True) | |
ax.set_xlim(lim) | |
ax.set_ylim(lim) | |
ax.set_xlabel(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ Theoretical {qp}") | |
ax.set_ylabel(f"Data {qp}") | |
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ {plot_type} Plot") | |
ax.legend(*ax.get_legend_handles_labels()) | |
ax.set_aspect('equal') | |
return ax | |
def _qq_plot(self, **kwargs): | |
return self._qp_plot(qq=True, **kwargs) | |
def _pp_plot(self, **kwargs): | |
return self._qp_plot(qq=False, **kwargs) | |
def _plotting_positions(self, n, a=.5): | |
# See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q%E2%80%93Q_plot#Plotting_positions | |
k = np.arange(1, n+1) | |
return (k-a) / (n + 1 - 2*a) | |
def _cdf_plot(self, ax, fit_params): | |
data = np.sort(self._data) | |
ecdf = self._plotting_positions(len(self._data)) | |
ls = '--' if len(np.unique(data)) < 30 else '.' | |
xlabel = 'k' if self.discrete else 'x' | |
ax.step(data, ecdf, ls, label='Empirical CDF', color='C1', zorder=0) | |
xlim = ax.get_xlim() | |
q = np.linspace(*xlim, 300) | |
tcdf = self._dist.cdf(q, *fit_params) | |
ax.plot(q, tcdf, label='Fitted Distribution CDF', color='C0', zorder=1) | |
ax.set_xlim(xlim) | |
ax.set_ylim(0, 1) | |
ax.set_xlabel(xlabel) | |
ax.set_ylabel("CDF") | |
ax.set_title(rf"Fitted $\tt {self._dist.name}$ and Empirical CDF") | |
handles, labels = ax.get_legend_handles_labels() | |
ax.legend(handles[::-1], labels[::-1]) | |
return ax | |
def fit(dist, data, bounds=None, *, guess=None, method='mle', | |
optimizer=optimize.differential_evolution): | |
r"""Fit a discrete or continuous distribution to data | |
Given a distribution, data, and bounds on the parameters of the | |
distribution, return maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. | |
Parameters | |
---------- | |
dist : `scipy.stats.rv_continuous` or `scipy.stats.rv_discrete` | |
The object representing the distribution to be fit to the data. | |
data : 1D array_like | |
The data to which the distribution is to be fit. If the data contain | |
any of ``np.nan``, ``np.inf``, or -``np.inf``, the fit method will | |
raise a ``ValueError``. | |
bounds : dict or sequence of tuples, optional | |
If a dictionary, each key is the name of a parameter of the | |
distribution, and the corresponding value is a tuple containing the | |
lower and upper bound on that parameter. If the distribution is | |
defined only for a finite range of values of that parameter, no entry | |
for that parameter is required; e.g., some distributions have | |
parameters which must be on the interval [0, 1]. Bounds for parameters | |
location (``loc``) and scale (``scale``) are optional; by default, | |
they are fixed to 0 and 1, respectively. | |
If a sequence, element *i* is a tuple containing the lower and upper | |
bound on the *i*\ th parameter of the distribution. In this case, | |
bounds for *all* distribution shape parameters must be provided. | |
Optionally, bounds for location and scale may follow the | |
distribution shape parameters. | |
If a shape is to be held fixed (e.g. if it is known), the | |
lower and upper bounds may be equal. If a user-provided lower or upper | |
bound is beyond a bound of the domain for which the distribution is | |
defined, the bound of the distribution's domain will replace the | |
user-provided value. Similarly, parameters which must be integral | |
will be constrained to integral values within the user-provided bounds. | |
guess : dict or array_like, optional | |
If a dictionary, each key is the name of a parameter of the | |
distribution, and the corresponding value is a guess for the value | |
of the parameter. | |
If a sequence, element *i* is a guess for the *i*\ th parameter of the | |
distribution. In this case, guesses for *all* distribution shape | |
parameters must be provided. | |
If `guess` is not provided, guesses for the decision variables will | |
not be passed to the optimizer. If `guess` is provided, guesses for | |
any missing parameters will be set at the mean of the lower and | |
upper bounds. Guesses for parameters which must be integral will be | |
rounded to integral values, and guesses that lie outside the | |
intersection of the user-provided bounds and the domain of the | |
distribution will be clipped. | |
method : {'mle', 'mse'} | |
With ``method="mle"`` (default), the fit is computed by minimizing | |
the negative log-likelihood function. A large, finite penalty | |
(rather than infinite negative log-likelihood) is applied for | |
observations beyond the support of the distribution. | |
With ``method="mse"``, the fit is computed by minimizing | |
the negative log-product spacing function. The same penalty is applied | |
for observations beyond the support. We follow the approach of [1]_, | |
which is generalized for samples with repeated observations. | |
optimizer : callable, optional | |
`optimizer` is a callable that accepts the following positional | |
argument. | |
fun : callable | |
The objective function to be optimized. `fun` accepts one argument | |
``x``, candidate shape parameters of the distribution, and returns | |
the objective function value given ``x``, `dist`, and the provided | |
`data`. | |
The job of `optimizer` is to find values of the decision variables | |
that minimizes `fun`. | |
`optimizer` must also accept the following keyword argument. | |
bounds : sequence of tuples | |
The bounds on values of the decision variables; each element will | |
be a tuple containing the lower and upper bound on a decision | |
variable. | |
If `guess` is provided, `optimizer` must also accept the following | |
keyword argument. | |
x0 : array_like | |
The guesses for each decision variable. | |
If the distribution has any shape parameters that must be integral or | |
if the distribution is discrete and the location parameter is not | |
fixed, `optimizer` must also accept the following keyword argument. | |
integrality : array_like of bools | |
For each decision variable, True if the decision variable | |
must be constrained to integer values and False if the decision | |
variable is continuous. | |
`optimizer` must return an object, such as an instance of | |
`scipy.optimize.OptimizeResult`, which holds the optimal values of | |
the decision variables in an attribute ``x``. If attributes | |
``fun``, ``status``, or ``message`` are provided, they will be | |
included in the result object returned by `fit`. | |
Returns | |
------- | |
result : `~scipy.stats._result_classes.FitResult` | |
An object with the following fields. | |
params : namedtuple | |
A namedtuple containing the maximum likelihood estimates of the | |
shape parameters, location, and (if applicable) scale of the | |
distribution. | |
success : bool or None | |
Whether the optimizer considered the optimization to terminate | |
successfully or not. | |
message : str or None | |
Any status message provided by the optimizer. | |
The object has the following method: | |
nllf(params=None, data=None) | |
By default, the negative log-likehood function at the fitted | |
`params` for the given `data`. Accepts a tuple containing | |
alternative shapes, location, and scale of the distribution and | |
an array of alternative data. | |
plot(ax=None) | |
Superposes the PDF/PMF of the fitted distribution over a normalized | |
histogram of the data. | |
See Also | |
-------- | |
rv_continuous, rv_discrete | |
Notes | |
----- | |
Optimization is more likely to converge to the maximum likelihood estimate | |
when the user provides tight bounds containing the maximum likelihood | |
estimate. For example, when fitting a binomial distribution to data, the | |
number of experiments underlying each sample may be known, in which case | |
the corresponding shape parameter ``n`` can be fixed. | |
References | |
---------- | |
.. [1] Shao, Yongzhao, and Marjorie G. Hahn. "Maximum product of spacings | |
method: a unified formulation with illustration of strong | |
consistency." Illinois Journal of Mathematics 43.3 (1999): 489-499. | |
Examples | |
-------- | |
Suppose we wish to fit a distribution to the following data. | |
>>> import numpy as np | |
>>> from scipy import stats | |
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng() | |
>>> dist = stats.nbinom | |
>>> shapes = (5, 0.5) | |
>>> data = dist.rvs(*shapes, size=1000, random_state=rng) | |
Suppose we do not know how the data were generated, but we suspect that | |
it follows a negative binomial distribution with parameters *n* and *p*\. | |
(See `scipy.stats.nbinom`.) We believe that the parameter *n* was fewer | |
than 30, and we know that the parameter *p* must lie on the interval | |
[0, 1]. We record this information in a variable `bounds` and pass | |
this information to `fit`. | |
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)] | |
>>> res = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds) | |
`fit` searches within the user-specified `bounds` for the | |
values that best match the data (in the sense of maximum likelihood | |
estimation). In this case, it found shape values similar to those | |
from which the data were actually generated. | |
>>> res.params | |
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5028157644634368, loc=0.0) # may vary | |
We can visualize the results by superposing the probability mass function | |
of the distribution (with the shapes fit to the data) over a normalized | |
histogram of the data. | |
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed to plot | |
>>> res.plot() | |
>>> plt.show() | |
Note that the estimate for *n* was exactly integral; this is because | |
the domain of the `nbinom` PMF includes only integral *n*, and the `nbinom` | |
object "knows" that. `nbinom` also knows that the shape *p* must be a | |
value between 0 and 1. In such a case - when the domain of the distribution | |
with respect to a parameter is finite - we are not required to specify | |
bounds for the parameter. | |
>>> bounds = {'n': (0, 30)} # omit parameter p using a `dict` | |
>>> res2 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds) | |
>>> res2.params | |
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5016492009232932, loc=0.0) # may vary | |
If we wish to force the distribution to be fit with *n* fixed at 6, we can | |
set both the lower and upper bounds on *n* to 6. Note, however, that the | |
value of the objective function being optimized is typically worse (higher) | |
in this case. | |
>>> bounds = {'n': (6, 6)} # fix parameter `n` | |
>>> res3 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds) | |
>>> res3.params | |
FitParams(n=6.0, p=0.5486556076755706, loc=0.0) # may vary | |
>>> res3.nllf() > res.nllf() | |
True # may vary | |
Note that the numerical results of the previous examples are typical, but | |
they may vary because the default optimizer used by `fit`, | |
`scipy.optimize.differential_evolution`, is stochastic. However, we can | |
customize the settings used by the optimizer to ensure reproducibility - | |
or even use a different optimizer entirely - using the `optimizer` | |
parameter. | |
>>> from scipy.optimize import differential_evolution | |
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng(767585560716548) | |
>>> def optimizer(fun, bounds, *, integrality): | |
... return differential_evolution(fun, bounds, strategy='best2bin', | |
... seed=rng, integrality=integrality) | |
>>> bounds = [(0, 30), (0, 1)] | |
>>> res4 = stats.fit(dist, data, bounds, optimizer=optimizer) | |
>>> res4.params | |
FitParams(n=5.0, p=0.5015183149259951, loc=0.0) | |
""" | |
# --- Input Validation / Standardization --- # | |
user_bounds = bounds | |
user_guess = guess | |
# distribution input validation and information collection | |
if hasattr(dist, "pdf"): # can't use isinstance for types | |
default_bounds = {'loc': (0, 0), 'scale': (1, 1)} | |
discrete = False | |
elif hasattr(dist, "pmf"): | |
default_bounds = {'loc': (0, 0)} | |
discrete = True | |
else: | |
message = ("`dist` must be an instance of `rv_continuous` " | |
"or `rv_discrete.`") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
try: | |
param_info = dist._param_info() | |
except AttributeError as e: | |
message = (f"Distribution `{dist.name}` is not yet supported by " | |
"`scipy.stats.fit` because shape information has " | |
"not been defined.") | |
raise ValueError(message) from e | |
# data input validation | |
data = np.asarray(data) | |
if data.ndim != 1: | |
message = "`data` must be exactly one-dimensional." | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if not (np.issubdtype(data.dtype, np.number) | |
and np.all(np.isfinite(data))): | |
message = "All elements of `data` must be finite numbers." | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
# bounds input validation and information collection | |
n_params = len(param_info) | |
n_shapes = n_params - (1 if discrete else 2) | |
param_list = [param.name for param in param_info] | |
param_names = ", ".join(param_list) | |
shape_names = ", ".join(param_list[:n_shapes]) | |
if user_bounds is None: | |
user_bounds = {} | |
if isinstance(user_bounds, dict): | |
default_bounds.update(user_bounds) | |
user_bounds = default_bounds | |
user_bounds_array = np.empty((n_params, 2)) | |
for i in range(n_params): | |
param_name = param_info[i].name | |
user_bound = user_bounds.pop(param_name, None) | |
if user_bound is None: | |
user_bound = param_info[i].domain | |
user_bounds_array[i] = user_bound | |
if user_bounds: | |
message = ("Bounds provided for the following unrecognized " | |
f"parameters will be ignored: {set(user_bounds)}") | |
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2) | |
else: | |
try: | |
user_bounds = np.asarray(user_bounds, dtype=float) | |
if user_bounds.size == 0: | |
user_bounds = np.empty((0, 2)) | |
except ValueError as e: | |
message = ("Each element of a `bounds` sequence must be a tuple " | |
"containing two elements: the lower and upper bound of " | |
"a distribution parameter.") | |
raise ValueError(message) from e | |
if (user_bounds.ndim != 2 or user_bounds.shape[1] != 2): | |
message = ("Each element of `bounds` must be a tuple specifying " | |
"the lower and upper bounds of a shape parameter") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if user_bounds.shape[0] < n_shapes: | |
message = (f"A `bounds` sequence must contain at least {n_shapes} " | |
"elements: tuples specifying the lower and upper " | |
f"bounds of all shape parameters {shape_names}.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if user_bounds.shape[0] > n_params: | |
message = ("A `bounds` sequence may not contain more than " | |
f"{n_params} elements: tuples specifying the lower and " | |
"upper bounds of distribution parameters " | |
f"{param_names}.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
user_bounds_array = np.empty((n_params, 2)) | |
user_bounds_array[n_shapes:] = list(default_bounds.values()) | |
user_bounds_array[:len(user_bounds)] = user_bounds | |
user_bounds = user_bounds_array | |
validated_bounds = [] | |
for i in range(n_params): | |
name = param_info[i].name | |
user_bound = user_bounds_array[i] | |
param_domain = param_info[i].domain | |
integral = param_info[i].integrality | |
combined = _combine_bounds(name, user_bound, param_domain, integral) | |
validated_bounds.append(combined) | |
bounds = np.asarray(validated_bounds) | |
integrality = [param.integrality for param in param_info] | |
# guess input validation | |
if user_guess is None: | |
guess_array = None | |
elif isinstance(user_guess, dict): | |
default_guess = {param.name: np.mean(bound) | |
for param, bound in zip(param_info, bounds)} | |
unrecognized = set(user_guess) - set(default_guess) | |
if unrecognized: | |
message = ("Guesses provided for the following unrecognized " | |
f"parameters will be ignored: {unrecognized}") | |
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2) | |
default_guess.update(user_guess) | |
message = ("Each element of `guess` must be a scalar " | |
"guess for a distribution parameter.") | |
try: | |
guess_array = np.asarray([default_guess[param.name] | |
for param in param_info], dtype=float) | |
except ValueError as e: | |
raise ValueError(message) from e | |
else: | |
message = ("Each element of `guess` must be a scalar " | |
"guess for a distribution parameter.") | |
try: | |
user_guess = np.asarray(user_guess, dtype=float) | |
except ValueError as e: | |
raise ValueError(message) from e | |
if user_guess.ndim != 1: | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if user_guess.shape[0] < n_shapes: | |
message = (f"A `guess` sequence must contain at least {n_shapes} " | |
"elements: scalar guesses for the distribution shape " | |
f"parameters {shape_names}.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
if user_guess.shape[0] > n_params: | |
message = ("A `guess` sequence may not contain more than " | |
f"{n_params} elements: scalar guesses for the " | |
f"distribution parameters {param_names}.") | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
guess_array = np.mean(bounds, axis=1) | |
guess_array[:len(user_guess)] = user_guess | |
if guess_array is not None: | |
guess_rounded = guess_array.copy() | |
guess_rounded[integrality] = np.round(guess_rounded[integrality]) | |
rounded = np.where(guess_rounded != guess_array)[0] | |
for i in rounded: | |
message = (f"Guess for parameter `{param_info[i].name}` " | |
f"rounded from {guess_array[i]} to {guess_rounded[i]}.") | |
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2) | |
guess_clipped = np.clip(guess_rounded, bounds[:, 0], bounds[:, 1]) | |
clipped = np.where(guess_clipped != guess_rounded)[0] | |
for i in clipped: | |
message = (f"Guess for parameter `{param_info[i].name}` " | |
f"clipped from {guess_rounded[i]} to " | |
f"{guess_clipped[i]}.") | |
warnings.warn(message, RuntimeWarning, stacklevel=2) | |
guess = guess_clipped | |
else: | |
guess = None | |
# --- Fitting --- # | |
def nllf(free_params, data=data): # bind data NOW | |
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'): | |
return dist._penalized_nnlf(free_params, data) | |
def nlpsf(free_params, data=data): # bind data NOW | |
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'): | |
return dist._penalized_nlpsf(free_params, data) | |
methods = {'mle': nllf, 'mse': nlpsf} | |
objective = methods[method.lower()] | |
with np.errstate(invalid='ignore', divide='ignore'): | |
kwds = {} | |
if bounds is not None: | |
kwds['bounds'] = bounds | |
if np.any(integrality): | |
kwds['integrality'] = integrality | |
if guess is not None: | |
kwds['x0'] = guess | |
res = optimizer(objective, **kwds) | |
return FitResult(dist, data, discrete, res) | |
GoodnessOfFitResult = namedtuple('GoodnessOfFitResult', | |
('fit_result', 'statistic', 'pvalue', | |
'null_distribution')) | |
def goodness_of_fit(dist, data, *, known_params=None, fit_params=None, | |
guessed_params=None, statistic='ad', n_mc_samples=9999, | |
random_state=None): | |
r""" | |
Perform a goodness of fit test comparing data to a distribution family. | |
Given a distribution family and data, perform a test of the null hypothesis | |
that the data were drawn from a distribution in that family. Any known | |
parameters of the distribution may be specified. Remaining parameters of | |
the distribution will be fit to the data, and the p-value of the test | |
is computed accordingly. Several statistics for comparing the distribution | |
to data are available. | |
Parameters | |
---------- | |
dist : `scipy.stats.rv_continuous` | |
The object representing the distribution family under the null | |
hypothesis. | |
data : 1D array_like | |
Finite, uncensored data to be tested. | |
known_params : dict, optional | |
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of known distribution | |
parameters. Monte Carlo samples are randomly drawn from the | |
null-hypothesized distribution with these values of the parameters. | |
Before the statistic is evaluated for each Monte Carlo sample, only | |
remaining unknown parameters of the null-hypothesized distribution | |
family are fit to the samples; the known parameters are held fixed. | |
If all parameters of the distribution family are known, then the step | |
of fitting the distribution family to each sample is omitted. | |
fit_params : dict, optional | |
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of distribution parameters | |
that have already been fit to the data, e.g. using `scipy.stats.fit` | |
or the ``fit`` method of `dist`. Monte Carlo samples are drawn from the | |
null-hypothesized distribution with these specified values of the | |
parameter. On those Monte Carlo samples, however, these and all other | |
unknown parameters of the null-hypothesized distribution family are | |
fit before the statistic is evaluated. | |
guessed_params : dict, optional | |
A dictionary containing name-value pairs of distribution parameters | |
which have been guessed. These parameters are always considered as | |
free parameters and are fit both to the provided `data` as well as | |
to the Monte Carlo samples drawn from the null-hypothesized | |
distribution. The purpose of these `guessed_params` is to be used as | |
initial values for the numerical fitting procedure. | |
statistic : {"ad", "ks", "cvm", "filliben"} or callable, optional | |
The statistic used to compare data to a distribution after fitting | |
unknown parameters of the distribution family to the data. The | |
Anderson-Darling ("ad") [1]_, Kolmogorov-Smirnov ("ks") [1]_, | |
Cramer-von Mises ("cvm") [1]_, and Filliben ("filliben") [7]_ | |
statistics are available. Alternatively, a callable with signature | |
``(dist, data, axis)`` may be supplied to compute the statistic. Here | |
``dist`` is a frozen distribution object (potentially with array | |
parameters), ``data`` is an array of Monte Carlo samples (of | |
compatible shape), and ``axis`` is the axis of ``data`` along which | |
the statistic must be computed. | |
n_mc_samples : int, default: 9999 | |
The number of Monte Carlo samples drawn from the null hypothesized | |
distribution to form the null distribution of the statistic. The | |
sample size of each is the same as the given `data`. | |
random_state : {None, int, `numpy.random.Generator`, | |
`numpy.random.RandomState`}, optional | |
Pseudorandom number generator state used to generate the Monte Carlo | |
samples. | |
If `random_state` is ``None`` (default), the | |
`numpy.random.RandomState` singleton is used. | |
If `random_state` is an int, a new ``RandomState`` instance is used, | |
seeded with `random_state`. | |
If `random_state` is already a ``Generator`` or ``RandomState`` | |
instance, then the provided instance is used. | |
Returns | |
------- | |
res : GoodnessOfFitResult | |
An object with the following attributes. | |
fit_result : `~scipy.stats._result_classes.FitResult` | |
An object representing the fit of the provided `dist` to `data`. | |
This object includes the values of distribution family parameters | |
that fully define the null-hypothesized distribution, that is, | |
the distribution from which Monte Carlo samples are drawn. | |
statistic : float | |
The value of the statistic comparing provided `data` to the | |
null-hypothesized distribution. | |
pvalue : float | |
The proportion of elements in the null distribution with | |
statistic values at least as extreme as the statistic value of the | |
provided `data`. | |
null_distribution : ndarray | |
The value of the statistic for each Monte Carlo sample | |
drawn from the null-hypothesized distribution. | |
Notes | |
----- | |
This is a generalized Monte Carlo goodness-of-fit procedure, special cases | |
of which correspond with various Anderson-Darling tests, Lilliefors' test, | |
etc. The test is described in [2]_, [3]_, and [4]_ as a parametric | |
bootstrap test. This is a Monte Carlo test in which parameters that | |
specify the distribution from which samples are drawn have been estimated | |
from the data. We describe the test using "Monte Carlo" rather than | |
"parametric bootstrap" throughout to avoid confusion with the more familiar | |
nonparametric bootstrap, and describe how the test is performed below. | |
*Traditional goodness of fit tests* | |
Traditionally, critical values corresponding with a fixed set of | |
significance levels are pre-calculated using Monte Carlo methods. Users | |
perform the test by calculating the value of the test statistic only for | |
their observed `data` and comparing this value to tabulated critical | |
values. This practice is not very flexible, as tables are not available for | |
all distributions and combinations of known and unknown parameter values. | |
Also, results can be inaccurate when critical values are interpolated from | |
limited tabulated data to correspond with the user's sample size and | |
fitted parameter values. To overcome these shortcomings, this function | |
allows the user to perform the Monte Carlo trials adapted to their | |
particular data. | |
*Algorithmic overview* | |
In brief, this routine executes the following steps: | |
1. Fit unknown parameters to the given `data`, thereby forming the | |
"null-hypothesized" distribution, and compute the statistic of | |
this pair of data and distribution. | |
2. Draw random samples from this null-hypothesized distribution. | |
3. Fit the unknown parameters to each random sample. | |
4. Calculate the statistic between each sample and the distribution that | |
has been fit to the sample. | |
5. Compare the value of the statistic corresponding with `data` from (1) | |
against the values of the statistic corresponding with the random | |
samples from (4). The p-value is the proportion of samples with a | |
statistic value greater than or equal to the statistic of the observed | |
data. | |
In more detail, the steps are as follows. | |
First, any unknown parameters of the distribution family specified by | |
`dist` are fit to the provided `data` using maximum likelihood estimation. | |
(One exception is the normal distribution with unknown location and scale: | |
we use the bias-corrected standard deviation ``np.std(data, ddof=1)`` for | |
the scale as recommended in [1]_.) | |
These values of the parameters specify a particular member of the | |
distribution family referred to as the "null-hypothesized distribution", | |
that is, the distribution from which the data were sampled under the null | |
hypothesis. The `statistic`, which compares data to a distribution, is | |
computed between `data` and the null-hypothesized distribution. | |
Next, many (specifically `n_mc_samples`) new samples, each containing the | |
same number of observations as `data`, are drawn from the | |
null-hypothesized distribution. All unknown parameters of the distribution | |
family `dist` are fit to *each resample*, and the `statistic` is computed | |
between each sample and its corresponding fitted distribution. These | |
values of the statistic form the Monte Carlo null distribution (not to be | |
confused with the "null-hypothesized distribution" above). | |
The p-value of the test is the proportion of statistic values in the Monte | |
Carlo null distribution that are at least as extreme as the statistic value | |
of the provided `data`. More precisely, the p-value is given by | |
.. math:: | |
p = \frac{b + 1} | |
{m + 1} | |
where :math:`b` is the number of statistic values in the Monte Carlo null | |
distribution that are greater than or equal to the statistic value | |
calculated for `data`, and :math:`m` is the number of elements in the | |
Monte Carlo null distribution (`n_mc_samples`). The addition of :math:`1` | |
to the numerator and denominator can be thought of as including the | |
value of the statistic corresponding with `data` in the null distribution, | |
but a more formal explanation is given in [5]_. | |
*Limitations* | |
The test can be very slow for some distribution families because unknown | |
parameters of the distribution family must be fit to each of the Monte | |
Carlo samples, and for most distributions in SciPy, distribution fitting | |
performed via numerical optimization. | |
*Anti-Pattern* | |
For this reason, it may be tempting | |
to treat parameters of the distribution pre-fit to `data` (by the user) | |
as though they were `known_params`, as specification of all parameters of | |
the distribution precludes the need to fit the distribution to each Monte | |
Carlo sample. (This is essentially how the original Kilmogorov-Smirnov | |
test is performed.) Although such a test can provide evidence against the | |
null hypothesis, the test is conservative in the sense that small p-values | |
will tend to (greatly) *overestimate* the probability of making a type I | |
error (that is, rejecting the null hypothesis although it is true), and the | |
power of the test is low (that is, it is less likely to reject the null | |
hypothesis even when the null hypothesis is false). | |
This is because the Monte Carlo samples are less likely to agree with the | |
null-hypothesized distribution as well as `data`. This tends to increase | |
the values of the statistic recorded in the null distribution, so that a | |
larger number of them exceed the value of statistic for `data`, thereby | |
inflating the p-value. | |
References | |
---------- | |
.. [1] M. A. Stephens (1974). "EDF Statistics for Goodness of Fit and | |
Some Comparisons." Journal of the American Statistical Association, | |
Vol. 69, pp. 730-737. | |
.. [2] W. Stute, W. G. Manteiga, and M. P. Quindimil (1993). | |
"Bootstrap based goodness-of-fit-tests." Metrika 40.1: 243-256. | |
.. [3] C. Genest, & B Rémillard. (2008). "Validity of the parametric | |
bootstrap for goodness-of-fit testing in semiparametric models." | |
Annales de l'IHP Probabilités et statistiques. Vol. 44. No. 6. | |
.. [4] I. Kojadinovic and J. Yan (2012). "Goodness-of-fit testing based on | |
a weighted bootstrap: A fast large-sample alternative to the | |
parametric bootstrap." Canadian Journal of Statistics 40.3: 480-500. | |
.. [5] B. Phipson and G. K. Smyth (2010). "Permutation P-values Should | |
Never Be Zero: Calculating Exact P-values When Permutations Are | |
Randomly Drawn." Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular | |
Biology 9.1. | |
.. [6] H. W. Lilliefors (1967). "On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for | |
normality with mean and variance unknown." Journal of the American | |
statistical Association 62.318: 399-402. | |
.. [7] Filliben, James J. "The probability plot correlation coefficient | |
test for normality." Technometrics 17.1 (1975): 111-117. | |
Examples | |
-------- | |
A well-known test of the null hypothesis that data were drawn from a | |
given distribution is the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, available in SciPy | |
as `scipy.stats.ks_1samp`. Suppose we wish to test whether the following | |
data: | |
>>> import numpy as np | |
>>> from scipy import stats | |
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng() | |
>>> x = stats.uniform.rvs(size=75, random_state=rng) | |
were sampled from a normal distribution. To perform a KS test, the | |
empirical distribution function of the observed data will be compared | |
against the (theoretical) cumulative distribution function of a normal | |
distribution. Of course, to do this, the normal distribution under the null | |
hypothesis must be fully specified. This is commonly done by first fitting | |
the ``loc`` and ``scale`` parameters of the distribution to the observed | |
data, then performing the test. | |
>>> loc, scale = np.mean(x), np.std(x, ddof=1) | |
>>> cdf = stats.norm(loc, scale).cdf | |
>>> stats.ks_1samp(x, cdf) | |
KstestResult(statistic=0.1119257570456813, pvalue=0.2827756409939257) | |
An advantage of the KS-test is that the p-value - the probability of | |
obtaining a value of the test statistic under the null hypothesis as | |
extreme as the value obtained from the observed data - can be calculated | |
exactly and efficiently. `goodness_of_fit` can only approximate these | |
results. | |
>>> known_params = {'loc': loc, 'scale': scale} | |
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, known_params=known_params, | |
... statistic='ks', random_state=rng) | |
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue | |
(0.1119257570456813, 0.2788) | |
The statistic matches exactly, but the p-value is estimated by forming | |
a "Monte Carlo null distribution", that is, by explicitly drawing random | |
samples from `scipy.stats.norm` with the provided parameters and | |
calculating the stastic for each. The fraction of these statistic values | |
at least as extreme as ``res.statistic`` approximates the exact p-value | |
calculated by `scipy.stats.ks_1samp`. | |
However, in many cases, we would prefer to test only that the data were | |
sampled from one of *any* member of the normal distribution family, not | |
specifically from the normal distribution with the location and scale | |
fitted to the observed sample. In this case, Lilliefors [6]_ argued that | |
the KS test is far too conservative (that is, the p-value overstates | |
the actual probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis) and thus lacks | |
power - the ability to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis | |
is actually false. | |
Indeed, our p-value above is approximately 0.28, which is far too large | |
to reject the null hypothesis at any common significance level. | |
Consider why this might be. Note that in the KS test above, the statistic | |
always compares data against the CDF of a normal distribution fitted to the | |
*observed data*. This tends to reduce the value of the statistic for the | |
observed data, but it is "unfair" when computing the statistic for other | |
samples, such as those we randomly draw to form the Monte Carlo null | |
distribution. It is easy to correct for this: whenever we compute the KS | |
statistic of a sample, we use the CDF of a normal distribution fitted | |
to *that sample*. The null distribution in this case has not been | |
calculated exactly and is tyically approximated using Monte Carlo methods | |
as described above. This is where `goodness_of_fit` excels. | |
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, statistic='ks', | |
... random_state=rng) | |
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue | |
(0.1119257570456813, 0.0196) | |
Indeed, this p-value is much smaller, and small enough to (correctly) | |
reject the null hypothesis at common significance levels, including 5% and | |
2.5%. | |
However, the KS statistic is not very sensitive to all deviations from | |
normality. The original advantage of the KS statistic was the ability | |
to compute the null distribution theoretically, but a more sensitive | |
statistic - resulting in a higher test power - can be used now that we can | |
approximate the null distribution | |
computationally. The Anderson-Darling statistic [1]_ tends to be more | |
sensitive, and critical values of the this statistic have been tabulated | |
for various significance levels and sample sizes using Monte Carlo methods. | |
>>> res = stats.anderson(x, 'norm') | |
>>> print(res.statistic) | |
1.2139573337497467 | |
>>> print(res.critical_values) | |
[0.549 0.625 0.75 0.875 1.041] | |
>>> print(res.significance_level) | |
[15. 10. 5. 2.5 1. ] | |
Here, the observed value of the statistic exceeds the critical value | |
corresponding with a 1% significance level. This tells us that the p-value | |
of the observed data is less than 1%, but what is it? We could interpolate | |
from these (already-interpolated) values, but `goodness_of_fit` can | |
estimate it directly. | |
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.norm, x, statistic='ad', | |
... random_state=rng) | |
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue | |
(1.2139573337497467, 0.0034) | |
A further advantage is that use of `goodness_of_fit` is not limited to | |
a particular set of distributions or conditions on which parameters | |
are known versus which must be estimated from data. Instead, | |
`goodness_of_fit` can estimate p-values relatively quickly for any | |
distribution with a sufficiently fast and reliable ``fit`` method. For | |
instance, here we perform a goodness of fit test using the Cramer-von Mises | |
statistic against the Rayleigh distribution with known location and unknown | |
scale. | |
>>> rng = np.random.default_rng() | |
>>> x = stats.chi(df=2.2, loc=0, scale=2).rvs(size=1000, random_state=rng) | |
>>> res = stats.goodness_of_fit(stats.rayleigh, x, statistic='cvm', | |
... known_params={'loc': 0}, random_state=rng) | |
This executes fairly quickly, but to check the reliability of the ``fit`` | |
method, we should inspect the fit result. | |
>>> res.fit_result # location is as specified, and scale is reasonable | |
params: FitParams(loc=0.0, scale=2.1026719844231243) | |
success: True | |
message: 'The fit was performed successfully.' | |
>>> import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # matplotlib must be installed to plot | |
>>> res.fit_result.plot() | |
>>> plt.show() | |
If the distribution is not fit to the observed data as well as possible, | |
the test may not control the type I error rate, that is, the chance of | |
rejecting the null hypothesis even when it is true. | |
We should also look for extreme outliers in the null distribution that | |
may be caused by unreliable fitting. These do not necessarily invalidate | |
the result, but they tend to reduce the test's power. | |
>>> _, ax = plt.subplots() | |
>>> ax.hist(np.log10(res.null_distribution)) | |
>>> ax.set_xlabel("log10 of CVM statistic under the null hypothesis") | |
>>> ax.set_ylabel("Frequency") | |
>>> ax.set_title("Histogram of the Monte Carlo null distribution") | |
>>> plt.show() | |
This plot seems reassuring. | |
If ``fit`` method is working reliably, and if the distribution of the test | |
statistic is not particularly sensitive to the values of the fitted | |
parameters, then the p-value provided by `goodness_of_fit` is expected to | |
be a good approximation. | |
>>> res.statistic, res.pvalue | |
(0.2231991510248692, 0.0525) | |
""" | |
args = _gof_iv(dist, data, known_params, fit_params, guessed_params, | |
statistic, n_mc_samples, random_state) | |
(dist, data, fixed_nhd_params, fixed_rfd_params, guessed_nhd_params, | |
guessed_rfd_params, statistic, n_mc_samples_int, random_state) = args | |
# Fit null hypothesis distribution to data | |
nhd_fit_fun = _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_nhd_params, | |
fixed_nhd_params) | |
nhd_vals = nhd_fit_fun(data) | |
nhd_dist = dist(*nhd_vals) | |
def rvs(size): | |
return nhd_dist.rvs(size=size, random_state=random_state) | |
# Define statistic | |
fit_fun = _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_rfd_params, fixed_rfd_params) | |
if callable(statistic): | |
compare_fun = statistic | |
else: | |
compare_fun = _compare_dict[statistic] | |
alternative = getattr(compare_fun, 'alternative', 'greater') | |
def statistic_fun(data, axis): | |
# Make things simple by always working along the last axis. | |
data = np.moveaxis(data, axis, -1) | |
rfd_vals = fit_fun(data) | |
rfd_dist = dist(*rfd_vals) | |
return compare_fun(rfd_dist, data, axis=-1) | |
res = stats.monte_carlo_test(data, rvs, statistic_fun, vectorized=True, | |
n_resamples=n_mc_samples, axis=-1, | |
alternative=alternative) | |
opt_res = optimize.OptimizeResult() | |
opt_res.success = True | |
opt_res.message = "The fit was performed successfully." | |
opt_res.x = nhd_vals | |
# Only continuous distributions for now, hence discrete=False | |
# There's no fundamental limitation; it's just that we're not using | |
# stats.fit, discrete distributions don't have `fit` method, and | |
# we haven't written any vectorized fit functions for a discrete | |
# distribution yet. | |
return GoodnessOfFitResult(FitResult(dist, data, False, opt_res), | |
res.statistic, res.pvalue, | |
res.null_distribution) | |
def _get_fit_fun(dist, data, guessed_params, fixed_params): | |
shape_names = [] if dist.shapes is None else dist.shapes.split(", ") | |
param_names = shape_names + ['loc', 'scale'] | |
fparam_names = ['f'+name for name in param_names] | |
all_fixed = not set(fparam_names).difference(fixed_params) | |
guessed_shapes = [guessed_params.pop(x, None) | |
for x in shape_names if x in guessed_params] | |
if all_fixed: | |
def fit_fun(data): | |
return [fixed_params[name] for name in fparam_names] | |
# Define statistic, including fitting distribution to data | |
elif dist in _fit_funs: | |
def fit_fun(data): | |
params = _fit_funs[dist](data, **fixed_params) | |
params = np.asarray(np.broadcast_arrays(*params)) | |
if params.ndim > 1: | |
params = params[..., np.newaxis] | |
return params | |
else: | |
def fit_fun_1d(data): | |
return dist.fit(data, *guessed_shapes, **guessed_params, | |
**fixed_params) | |
def fit_fun(data): | |
params = np.apply_along_axis(fit_fun_1d, axis=-1, arr=data) | |
if params.ndim > 1: | |
params = params.T[..., np.newaxis] | |
return params | |
return fit_fun | |
# Vectorized fitting functions. These are to accept ND `data` in which each | |
# row (slice along last axis) is a sample to fit and scalar fixed parameters. | |
# They return a tuple of shape parameter arrays, each of shape data.shape[:-1]. | |
def _fit_norm(data, floc=None, fscale=None): | |
loc = floc | |
scale = fscale | |
if loc is None and scale is None: | |
loc = np.mean(data, axis=-1) | |
scale = np.std(data, ddof=1, axis=-1) | |
elif loc is None: | |
loc = np.mean(data, axis=-1) | |
elif scale is None: | |
scale = np.sqrt(((data - loc)**2).mean(axis=-1)) | |
return loc, scale | |
_fit_funs = {stats.norm: _fit_norm} # type: ignore[attr-defined] | |
# Vectorized goodness of fit statistic functions. These accept a frozen | |
# distribution object and `data` in which each row (slice along last axis) is | |
# a sample. | |
def _anderson_darling(dist, data, axis): | |
x = np.sort(data, axis=-1) | |
n = data.shape[-1] | |
i = np.arange(1, n+1) | |
Si = (2*i - 1)/n * (dist.logcdf(x) + dist.logsf(x[..., ::-1])) | |
S = np.sum(Si, axis=-1) | |
return -n - S | |
def _compute_dplus(cdfvals): # adapted from _stats_py before gh-17062 | |
n = cdfvals.shape[-1] | |
return (np.arange(1.0, n + 1) / n - cdfvals).max(axis=-1) | |
def _compute_dminus(cdfvals): | |
n = cdfvals.shape[-1] | |
return (cdfvals - np.arange(0.0, n)/n).max(axis=-1) | |
def _kolmogorov_smirnov(dist, data, axis): | |
x = np.sort(data, axis=-1) | |
cdfvals = dist.cdf(x) | |
Dplus = _compute_dplus(cdfvals) # always works along last axis | |
Dminus = _compute_dminus(cdfvals) | |
return np.maximum(Dplus, Dminus) | |
def _corr(X, M): | |
# Correlation coefficient r, simplified and vectorized as we need it. | |
# See [7] Equation (2). Lemma 1/2 are only for distributions symmetric | |
# about 0. | |
Xm = X.mean(axis=-1, keepdims=True) | |
Mm = M.mean(axis=-1, keepdims=True) | |
num = np.sum((X - Xm) * (M - Mm), axis=-1) | |
den = np.sqrt(np.sum((X - Xm)**2, axis=-1) * np.sum((M - Mm)**2, axis=-1)) | |
return num/den | |
def _filliben(dist, data, axis): | |
# [7] Section 8 # 1 | |
X = np.sort(data, axis=-1) | |
# [7] Section 8 # 2 | |
n = data.shape[-1] | |
k = np.arange(1, n+1) | |
# Filliben used an approximation for the uniform distribution order | |
# statistic medians. | |
# m = (k - .3175)/(n + 0.365) | |
# m[-1] = 0.5**(1/n) | |
# m[0] = 1 - m[-1] | |
# We can just as easily use the (theoretically) exact values. See e.g. | |
# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_statistic | |
# "Order statistics sampled from a uniform distribution" | |
m = stats.beta(k, n + 1 - k).median() | |
# [7] Section 8 # 3 | |
M = dist.ppf(m) | |
# [7] Section 8 # 4 | |
return _corr(X, M) | |
_filliben.alternative = 'less' # type: ignore[attr-defined] | |
def _cramer_von_mises(dist, data, axis): | |
x = np.sort(data, axis=-1) | |
n = data.shape[-1] | |
cdfvals = dist.cdf(x) | |
u = (2*np.arange(1, n+1) - 1)/(2*n) | |
w = 1 / (12*n) + np.sum((u - cdfvals)**2, axis=-1) | |
return w | |
_compare_dict = {"ad": _anderson_darling, "ks": _kolmogorov_smirnov, | |
"cvm": _cramer_von_mises, "filliben": _filliben} | |
def _gof_iv(dist, data, known_params, fit_params, guessed_params, statistic, | |
n_mc_samples, random_state): | |
if not isinstance(dist, stats.rv_continuous): | |
message = ("`dist` must be a (non-frozen) instance of " | |
"`stats.rv_continuous`.") | |
raise TypeError(message) | |
data = np.asarray(data, dtype=float) | |
if not data.ndim == 1: | |
message = "`data` must be a one-dimensional array of numbers." | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
# Leave validation of these key/value pairs to the `fit` method, | |
# but collect these into dictionaries that will be used | |
known_params = known_params or dict() | |
fit_params = fit_params or dict() | |
guessed_params = guessed_params or dict() | |
known_params_f = {("f"+key): val for key, val in known_params.items()} | |
fit_params_f = {("f"+key): val for key, val in fit_params.items()} | |
# These are the values of parameters of the null distribution family | |
# with which resamples are drawn | |
fixed_nhd_params = known_params_f.copy() | |
fixed_nhd_params.update(fit_params_f) | |
# These are fixed when fitting the distribution family to resamples | |
fixed_rfd_params = known_params_f.copy() | |
# These are used as guesses when fitting the distribution family to | |
# the original data | |
guessed_nhd_params = guessed_params.copy() | |
# These are used as guesses when fitting the distribution family to | |
# resamples | |
guessed_rfd_params = fit_params.copy() | |
guessed_rfd_params.update(guessed_params) | |
if not callable(statistic): | |
statistic = statistic.lower() | |
statistics = {'ad', 'ks', 'cvm', 'filliben'} | |
if statistic not in statistics: | |
message = f"`statistic` must be one of {statistics}." | |
raise ValueError(message) | |
n_mc_samples_int = int(n_mc_samples) | |
if n_mc_samples_int != n_mc_samples: | |
message = "`n_mc_samples` must be an integer." | |
raise TypeError(message) | |
random_state = check_random_state(random_state) | |
return (dist, data, fixed_nhd_params, fixed_rfd_params, guessed_nhd_params, | |
guessed_rfd_params, statistic, n_mc_samples_int, random_state) | |