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Full send
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r/worldnews
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r/worldnews
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2024-03-06
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People forget that the stability-instability paradox doesn't just operate outside Russian borders.
Putin has made threats he can't back up with direct military action, because he knows how much worse it can get. Let's not forget that there are several horrific rungs on the escalation ladder before we get to nukes. Like "oops the water treatment facilities for St. Petersburg just exploded overnight because air defense can hardly keep up with drones let alone JASSM."
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2024-03-06
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Less "war in europe" more cheering on Ukraine being able to defend itself.
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2024-03-06
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But wasn’t your whole plan to force a direct conflict?
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2024-03-06
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They have invaded non-NATO countries on multiple occasions.
They do not escalate with NATO because Putin doesn't want that smoke.
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2024-03-06
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They will be allowed. The Belgian's always waffle.
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2024-03-06
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I thought your crane was only defending themselves. Why are they attacking Russia?
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2024-03-06
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Use of a tactical nuke in Ukraine would probably get direct NATO involvement and bring Russia squarely into the "finding out" phase.
Things can get *so* much worse for them long before we start slinging nukes.
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2024-03-06
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Russia has threatened nukes if the west "cross red lines" multiple times now since the war started. I think around 20 times? And yet, nothing has happened.
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2024-03-06
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It would be nice if Ukrainian drones have destroyed them all by the time F-16s arrive.
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2024-03-06
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Pfft, real Belgians only drink from the bottle.
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2024-03-06
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He can't subdue Ukraine, because the whole world is giving them weapons. And Ukraine had modern weapons to begin with. When two modern militaries of similar size clash, there is nothing but stalemate and that would be exactly the same if US or NATO get actively involved (if we exclude possible nuclear threats).
Russia has 1.1 mil standing army, the population is 144 million, trust me they can mobilize a lot more people and they also have a lot more equipment than what they use in the Ukraine theatre.
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2024-03-06
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war fries is probably a more accurate translation, and it sounds better too
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2024-03-06
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Isn't that a bit like me selling/giving you a car... then trying to tell you where you can drive it?
I'm not trying to argue or establish "Right vs Wrong". It just seems like these statements are either superfluous, unnecessary or even provocative.
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2024-03-06
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Let’s loan them one B2
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2024-03-06
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Basically an onion and curry flavored mayonnaise.
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2024-03-06
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Definitely true for some systems, and especially true of the logistics capacity.
I don't think Taiwan needs thousands of Abrams tanks, but the logistics tail to sustain thousands of Abrams in European combat operations might be needed on the other side of the planet if China decides to do some imperialism at the same time.
To be fair, I don't think anyone is doing anything with a thousand tanks at a time anymore. That age is over. Everyone can see everything, and massed forces make juicy targets.
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2024-03-06
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depends what you mean by this. Yes since their pilots have been flying training on them in romania (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/04/19/ukraine-dutch-f16-training-romania/), or no since they're not yet in ukraine.
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2024-03-06
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That’s sounds kind of amazing…
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2024-03-06
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Jan: "hej, hoe vind je jullie deze lekker F16?" * Shoves stroopwafel into mouth*
As an expat here I wouldn't say I feel particularly "afraid" of the Dutch ?
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2024-03-06
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Perun had a pretty good youtube video about escalation last year. I can't find it right now, but basically, he said that maybe part of the NATO political strategy was a bit like the frog and boiling water scenario. If you drop the frog directly into boiling water, it will hop out right away, but if you put the frog in room temp water and then slowly heat to a boil it won't notice. (I have been informed a real frog still jumps out when it gets too hot. Who tf is boiling live frogs to test this?)
Anyway, my comment was to say, yes, that might be the point. Pick a small red line, cross it, see what the response is. If the response is acceptable, cross the next one... then the next. Continue until you get to where you want to be. Benefits being that you still provide the support to Ukraine that you want without any real provacation for nuclear war, but the drawback is that it's slow. Clever strategy at least.
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r/worldnews
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2024-03-06
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Lekkere friet potato war met uitjes
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2024-03-06
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Its got to be a PITA keeping track of what came from where and whats allowed to be used where, and it keeps changing so they have to move stuff about.
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2024-03-06
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I dont understand comments like this. ONE nuke is all it takes. Haven't you seen nuclear strike movies? Documentaries? I mean, one nuke TODAY will basically end the world as we know it, I am not even talking about 1000s possible nukes, just 1 nuke wipes out Moscow, NY, or any other major city. This is not Hiroshima or Nagasaki.
Problem here is risk of Putin going mad and "yolo" the nukes is non 0. If Hitler in his Bunker surrounded had nukes, can you guess what could've happened?
And I dont pretend like I know the solution to this, but it clearly to not try to see if the other guy is bluffing.
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2024-03-06
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Guess Belgium only wants Ukraine to use them for defense, not offense. Probably scared of Russia retaliating.
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2024-03-06
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> Given that NATO is going to be heavily involved on the logistics side, they will absolutely know the full flight history of every airframe.
Lol talk to an airman that's done some maintenance on one. Flight history is gonna be done on a clipboard with paper before it gets entered in any computer database. And they are recording shit like hours flown, not a detailed flight map. It would not be hard at all.
Shit the US has a history of changing planes serial numbers when they want to do some sneaky shit.
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2024-03-06
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The restrictions are just silly. Could anyone explain what is a sane reason for having them at all?
I mean.. russia is destroying a country with all kinds of rockets and bombs and tanks and stuff, and other countries are saying "No, you can't hit russia back on their territory, otherwise they will get upset" and will attack... even more.. or what? It's not like russia is holding anything back. They can't do anything more than they are currently doing. They can only say "don't you dare, it will have 'consequences', but nobody should care about what they say while they are invading another country.
Why us Scholz so keen on not angering russia and not giving missiles to Ukraine? Why does he care, or other leaders? With Orban and Fico it is clear, they are russian puppets or just plain populist idiots, but are others also, but only secretly?
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2024-03-06
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We're not talking about a chain of retribution, we're talking about whether Putin could destroy the world on his own with his nukes. Which he, by all guesstimates, could not. He could take out some key cities and kill millions of people, but unless the world responded by nuking him back (which wouldn't even be necessary as it's been made quite clear his army would not be enough to stop an invasion,) then it would stop there.
The only cases where one nuke leads to the world's destruction is when someone has an itchy trigger finger and doesn't know who sent the nuke. They then respond by firing at several possible targets, who all then fire at their own enemies, so on and so forth.
Based on the fact that no one has detonated a nuclear warhead on an enemy since World War II, it's safe to say that the world would approach such an occurrence with a much more level head than Hollywood has led us to believe. Total destruction is not impossible, but it is far less likely than a more isolated tragedy.
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2024-03-06
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>Therefore, they definitely do want to know what their jets are used for by definition.
That is a leap in logic on your part though.
Perhaps Belgium specifically does *not* want to know if their donated F-16s are the ones being used to strike Russian territory because then the Belgian government would be under pressure to publicly do something about it.
Saying there is no way to track which F-16s are which in Ukrainian hands gives them plausible deniability to deny that *their* F-16s are being used.
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2024-03-06
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>So much can be learned from an F16 strike..
Yes but what information is gained by knowing if it was F-16 number 775 or F-16 number 776?
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2024-03-06
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You think NATO has the ability to identify F-16 serial numbers remotely?
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2024-03-06
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…it’s a guided bomb…
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2024-03-06
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> The jets will be maintained, at least in part, by Belgium technicians using Belgium maintenance systems.
Says who?
By all accounts major Ukraine F-16 maintenance will take place in Poland.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24164
And the Poles will not give two fucks about which F-16s Ukraine is using to strike in Russia. If anything they would help them lie about which jets are used to the Belgians.
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2024-03-06
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If it helps next time (not this time) explain that this weekend is the *end* of *this week that we're currently in*. Next weekend will be the *end* of *the week that will occur next, after this week*.
Works for fall too. This fall is the fall of this current year. Next fall is the fall of the next upcoming year.
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2024-03-06
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neville chamberlain is that you
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2024-03-06
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Ukraine
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2024-03-06
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[Time to bring this back.](https://www.upinthesky.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/F16_KLu_OrangeLion_DanielRavenswaay.jpg)
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2024-03-06
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The US gave us the green light in august 2023, so yeah we're giving the F-16s! For MH-17!!
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2024-03-06
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I guess not to escalate too much?
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2024-03-06
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I don't have weapons but I allow Ukraine to use my old shoes to assassinate Putin.
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2024-04-06
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This isn’t the wonder weapon people think it is. Will the F-16 help Ukraine? Absolutely. Will a few dozen F-16s suddenly turn the tide on the ground? Probably not. The main issues of manpower shortage on the Ukrainian side and the massive conventional artillery advantage on the Russian side will still be there.
Also the Russian AA systems are decent enough to where Ukrainian F-16s need to be very cautious in what missions they can take. 30-70 F-16s are not nearly enough to consistently try and fly SEAD missions.
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2024-04-06
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Sure man.
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2024-04-06
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5 tactical nukes and 3 canisters of mustard gas is more humane than whatever is in that shit
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2024-04-06
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WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU ON MY FARM SHAGGING ME SHEEP?
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2024-04-06
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because we in the Netherlands need to know what our government does and what Ukraine does with out equipment. we live in a democracy, our government can't just handover military equipment to another country without explaining its purpose
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2024-04-06
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Using it as platform to target Russian SAM radar and launchers with AGM-88’s and owning the airspace over Ukraine if they have awacs is a big deal. The F-16 is still a pretty potent air superiority fighter, and Russia is less and less apt to send well trained pilots in as the loss rate has been pretty substantial.
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2024-04-06
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Ok? Thats not an answer to my question. It doesn’t become a standoff weapon just because it is guided.
Having read a bit more though i can answer my own question that the ER version can get enough range to be used as a standoff weapon. It gives it the ability to hit targets 72
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2024-04-06
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That's nice but the Oxford dictionary is wrong.
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2024-04-06
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Yeah that's English language.
This years fall.
Next years fall
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2024-04-06
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Lou Gosset Jr approves of this message
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2024-04-06
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They card Putin will retaliate against them.
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2024-04-06
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How are f-16s delivered to Ukraine? On ships?
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2024-04-06
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Wait, how are Russians getting ahold of f-16s? Aren’t f-16s produced by the US?
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2024-04-06
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It's a bit unique, the capital is Amsterdam, the city of government is The Hague. I think the Netherlands is the only country with an arrangement like that.
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2024-04-06
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I suspect all of Russian air defense is involved in Ukraine, and there will be very little of it in Russia proper. But first you need to get there.
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2024-04-06
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We are still very rich and have good connections with a lot of other countries, can often be an alliance builder in the EU. We do punch above our weight somewhat. But not more than that, no.
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2024-04-06
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We're a core partner of the F35 program, the F16 are already replaced. This just means they don't get sold to some random other country.
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2024-04-06
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Of course they will want to use F-16s to hit targets on Russian territory. One of the uses of F-16s will likely be to launch cruise missiles.
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2024-04-06
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You are not wrong but there is also another side to this approach other than just red lines being crossed...
It's the exact same principle as putting economic sanctions on Russia. you don't just put all the sanctions you can on a country at one time. You add more and more the longer the country doesn't comply. Slowly strangling them letting the country [Russia] see the effect building up slowly putting more and more pressure on them over time. It's the same thing that's been happening with the arms supplies. It's not the diplomatic way to achieve peace by showing your full hand right from the off.
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2024-04-06
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Again, the question was about why the green light is announced *publicly*. Parliament, Congress, or the equivalent could still be secretly informed.
I get it. You think all such military decisions should be pre-announced to the public. I don’t think that is how the world has ever worked, but I suspect Russia appreciates the heads-up.
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2024-04-06
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post
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2024-03-06
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Ha! Nice try. The Netherlands is this make believe place where Peter Pan and Tinker Bell come from.
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2024-03-06
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Good 👍
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2024-03-06
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Fair is fair.
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2024-03-06
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thats not true, im American i know you guys are next to land of waffles, glorious waffles
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2024-03-06
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I'll have you know I speak hollandaise fluidly.
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2024-03-06
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That’s just outside Djibouti, right? 😉
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2024-03-06
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Me I’m the nato ally.
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2024-03-06
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Possible but very risky. Russian interceptors have a relatively powerful radar and their A2A missiles can reach out further. And they can do all of this without leaving their “safe space.” That being said, Mig 29s and SU25s are definitely on the menu if they make the mistake of getting too close.
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2024-03-06
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Shouldn't they at least wait for them to turn 18?
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2024-03-06
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Tbf, Amsterdam was originally British, but we annexed it. The British couldn't cope, so they renamed New Amsterdam to New York shortly after. Despite this all, it still seems to irk the British, as they often send over their young (I assume in an effort to annex it), who then fall into dispair and subsequently a drunken stupor when they realize the futility of their quest.
We've already asked the Brits numerous times to give up already; we already showed our generosity by not annexing New York, so it's time to get over it. But it seems it left a deep emotional scar in the nation, so we decided we'll just cope instead and charge these suckers triple for booze. Might as well bleed them dry and make some profit along the way...
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2024-03-06
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2024-03-06
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Really I thought they just want back to flat earth, young age earth, no moon landing, chemtrails who the fuck knows
I'm as naive as you
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2024-04-06
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2024-03-06
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Just listen to them, they're the only country in the world that can honestly claim to have experienced a fatal miscalculation in Ukraine.
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2024-03-06
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lol so acknowledging that Russia has a chance to win in Ukraine makes me a Russian shill? For sure
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2024-03-06
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The US estimate in August 2023 was 70,000-120,000 Ukrainian troops killed, we can double that number for casualties, but likely add many more on following the 2023 Ukrainian offensive. You'd probably find 250,000 would be generous, I expect the figure to be higher. US intelligence would be the most accurate public source we have given neither Russia nor Ukraine would give accurate figures as these are classified and militarily sensitive. Neither Ukraine nor Russia would give accurate figures for their own and enemy losses in the middle of a war and it's ridiculous to quote them as serious. If Ukraine had only lost 31,000 troops then they wouldn't have lowered the age of conscription, they likely lost 31,000 troops in the 2023 offensive alone.
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2024-03-06
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Russia even in Kamikaze state is no Fatal threat to the US.
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2024-03-06
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Russia warns US sounds so hilarious.
So how's the 3 day operation going?
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2024-03-06
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It sounds like Moscow is as pissed off as its ever been. Glory to Ukraine. Fuck Xi's bitch. 🇺🇦🇺🇲
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2024-03-06
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Just because they have the ability to glass the entirety of gaza and choose not to, doesn't really = adequate constraint.
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2024-03-06
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So says the country that has already sent a few hundred thousand of their young men to their deaths.
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2024-03-06
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Oh.
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2024-03-06
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That’s just a rumor, he actually had them removed so he could go to town on himself.
Jokes on him, that could have been achieved by stretching regularly.
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2024-03-06
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Not to play devils advocate but imagine an entire population being brainwashed for over 24 years by Putin and then also prob way before that so several decades at the very minimum. And if you think how much fake news/propaganda from inside Russia is spread in the western world, imagine how much more (constantly) is forced upon the russian people.
On top of that you have the massive problem that a huge amount of russians, especially the ones not living inside the big cities and primarily (basically **all**) of elderly people being stuck in the past (no internet, no smartphone and the likes) being conservative af (conservative as in, everything should stay as it is) and being completely encapsuled/enshrouded in their own little world (outside my dacha, there exists nothing).
Then *on top of that* you have a number of people who do have access to the internet and opposing information but literally cant do anything. There is no protesting, you are very likely to just instantly be abducted and beaten/imprisoned or killed. That fear is very real and justified.
Im not really trying to defend the russian people, enough exist that still support the war and Putin etc despite having access to information (they are just brainwashed/choosing to not believe it) however one has to understand that most chances to advance as a people and grow into the modern world has been tried to be eradicated by the Kreml since before the cold war.
I think it isn't unfair to draw a comparison to North Korea's population. Imagine those being released into the free world, they know nothing. Nothing they have been taught is real. They are lost, however still humans who just never had a chance. They are just prisoners in their dicatorship without even knowing it. To me, Russia seems like NK lite
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2024-03-06
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I don’t know, they are the preeminent experts on fatal miscalculations in Ukrainian after all^^^/s
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2024-03-06
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NATO has no choice. Failure to push Russia back out of Ukraine will lead to more escalation.
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2024-03-06
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Over 500k soldiers wasted is a bit of a miscalculation....
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2024-03-06
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Every time Russia says stuff like this, you know it’s because they are hurting real bad right now
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2024-03-06
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I would put the title in quotation marks. Nobody could possibly take this as a statement, they’ve lost all credibility.
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2024-03-06
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The best hope that Russia would have for anything approaching victory in a direct conflict with the US would be a nuclear murder-suicide. The Russian military would be folded in weeks were the conflict conventional, and even if things went nuclear there is considerable doubt as to whether Russia still has the capacity to actually ensure the destruction of the United States.
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2024-03-06
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I'm not saying that this is the worst they can do, they are using some restraint I'm just saying they should be using a lot more. Roof knocking is wild in itself, it sounds like they have quit even doing that.
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2024-03-06
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> I heard Putin had his bottom ribs removed so he could puff himself up
Putin actually played Paul on the Wonder Years
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2024-03-06
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Alternative explanation? Since when was this about explaining to you what the war is about? This has been about pointing out the nonsense in your arguments. And clearly it is you who is clueless about the matter otherwise you would know what this is about if you would have read just one book on Russia-Ukraine. Don’t think it’s not clear you are regurgitating pseudowisdom from reddit and youtube that you thought made you sound smart, it’s clear as day. But if you want some recommendations on actual books to read none of which mention this childish theories you keep bringing up I can help educate you. I can give you at least 5 and guess what not even one includes even a sentence about demographics being a motive. But I am open for you to prove me wrong and give me your source for this. Must be quite the respected author going against the grain like that.
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2024-03-06
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They got their missile stamp money 💰 today.haha
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2024-03-06
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>Fun fact: they still haven’t recovered from ww2.
And the entire civilized world (whch impacts the entire world) hasn't recovered from the failed state that emerged from the ashes of that.
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2024-03-06
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The development of the venerable F-15 is a perfect example of this.
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2024-03-06
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I'm surprised by this. I've thought for a while the general consensus was that Russia was like UK or France levels but still nowhere near USA levels
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2024-03-06
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That can't use. Some because they don't work and some because if they do they die so...
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2024-03-06
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Those people do no need to find reasons to hate the USA and its allies, considering the USA in the 60s to 80s was very much in its 'let's fuck up the world' moment, and were very much a key piece in the rise of dictatorships across South America, the scars of which are still felt to this day as none of the countries have yet -fully- recovered.
With that said, is this reason to try and defend Russia? Lol no. It is laughable to make this a game of us vs them, and Ukraine, despite its faults, should be given all the means to defend themselves and their sovereignity against invaders.
But nobody should be suprised about the amount of enmity the USA draws, given its own fucked up actions.
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2024-03-06
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