patrickbdevaney/mia9 · Datasets at Hugging Face

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and Clough, 2006).
The extended hydroperiods associated with higher
sea levels will reduce the ability of coastal plant communities to grow and form peat. However, the
largest uncertainty could involve how the fauna in
tidal wetland communities respond to sea-level rise
and concurrent alterations in hydrology.
A rapid rise of 3-4 feet will diminish the protection
that the seaward barrier islands provide to our
coastal wetlands within lagoons and estuaries. Existing wetlands may be diminished by increased physical storm wave, surge, and current stress associated
with increased water levels (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).
II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
Photo courtesy of Llyn French—Fort Hamer
II

10

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects
on Florida’s Ocean
and Coastal Resources
EFFECT : Higher Storm Surge and Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure
Rising sea level has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to coastal communities in Florida, especially
as it exacerbates storm surge generated by hurricanes when they hit large urban regions. As sea level continues to rise, deeper waters near shore will translate to higher storm surge, faster flow, higher waves, and
hydrodynamic pressure and wave impact loads on buildings near the shoreline, which are likely to exceed
their designed capacities by wide margins and suffer significant damage and loss of function.
WHAT WE KNOW:
Fifteen of Florida’s 20 major population centers
are located in coastal counties around a bay or
estuary or at the mouth of a river that flows into
the ocean. 76% of Florida’s population resides in
coastal counties that generate 79% of the state’s
total annual economy (Kildow, 2008). These
counties represent a built-environment and infrastructure whose replacement value in 2010 is
$2.0 trillion and which by 2030 is estimated to
be $3.0 trillion (Climate Works Foundation,
2009).*
Coastal regions are especially vulnerable to the
storm surges and waves that hurricanes generate.
These will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. In
Florida, the impacts of increased storm surge will
occur long before there are effects from static sealevel rise (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009).
Most of the coastal infrastructure was designed
and built using criteria based on historical data
for local mean sea level and flooding referencing
National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929,
which took into account neither current nor future
sea level (Florida Climate Action Team, 2008).
WHAT IS PROBABLE:
Sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice
as large as projected by IPCC, 2007, and this factor increases the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure
in Florida by several-fold (Allison et al., 2009;
Rahmstorf, 2010).
Coastal communities now vulnerable to flooding are
likely to flood more frequently, whereas other communities not currently subjected to coastal flooding
are likely to be at gradually increasing risk of flooding as sea level rises. Consequently, the risk of flood
damage to coastal infrastructure is likely to increase
in parallel with sea-level rise (U.S. Global Change
Research Program, 2009).
Infrastructure such as port facilities, marinas, piers,
and others that must be located at or near the waterInfrastructure vulnerability to storm-surge damage
was observed in Florida during the 2004 and
2005 hurricane seasons (Florida Division of Emergency Management, 2007).
Much of the current infrastructure of coastal
Florida will need to be replaced or improved during ongoing sea-level rise. An opportunity exists
to relocate, harden, and adapt the infrastructure
to conditions in ways that avoid or mitigate the
potential impacts (U.S. Climate Change Program,
2008).
* U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis data and Enterprise
Florida data were used to estimate the “value” at risk represented by the built
environment in the region. The method used data on the built environment/number of housing units as a function of total population and used projections of
population in 2030, 2050, etc. to arrive at the estimated replacement value of
the built environment (in current dollars) at a given year in the future.
II

11

line are very likely to be at gradually increasing risk
of damage from flooding, hydrodynamic pressure
from storm surge, and wave impact because of sealevel rise. This will likely require hardening or elevation through retrofit, relocation, or even abandonment
of some such facilities (R.A. Alvarez, personal communication).
Sea-level rise will stress this infrastructure (buildings,
roads, bridges, etc.) physically because salinity
changes may affect the structural integrity and/or
functionality of physical materials that compose the
features of roads, ports, airports, and rail systems.
This stress will increase infrastructure fatigue, reducing its effective functional life and requiring accelerated maintenance (Southeast Climate Change
Partnership, 2005; U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, 2008).
Increased flooding will affect human-inhabited areas
and result in more roadway washouts (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2008).
Even roads farther inland may be threatened because road drainage systems become less effective
as sea levels rise. Many roads are built lower than
the surrounding land, so reduced drainage capacity
will further increase their susceptibility to flooding during rainstorms (Titus, 2002).
WHAT IS POSSIBLE:
The annual number of tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic basin may decrease (independently of the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), whereas the

and Clough, 2006).

The extended hydroperiods associated with higher

sea levels will reduce the ability of coastal plant communities to grow and form peat. However, the

largest uncertainty could involve how the fauna in

tidal wetland communities respond to sea-level rise

and concurrent alterations in hydrology.

A rapid rise of 3-4 feet will diminish the protection

that the seaward barrier islands provide to our

coastal wetlands within lagoons and estuaries. Existing wetlands may be diminished by increased physical storm wave, surge, and current stress associated

with increased water levels (Vlaswinkel and Wanless, 2009).

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

Photo courtesy of Llyn French—Fort Hamer

II

10

II. Sea-Level Rise and Its Effects

on Florida’s Ocean

and Coastal Resources

EFFECT : Higher Storm Surge and Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure

Rising sea level has the potential to cause catastrophic damage to coastal communities in Florida, especially

as it exacerbates storm surge generated by hurricanes when they hit large urban regions. As sea level continues to rise, deeper waters near shore will translate to higher storm surge, faster flow, higher waves, and

hydrodynamic pressure and wave impact loads on buildings near the shoreline, which are likely to exceed

their designed capacities by wide margins and suffer significant damage and loss of function.

WHAT WE KNOW:

Fifteen of Florida’s 20 major population centers

are located in coastal counties around a bay or

estuary or at the mouth of a river that flows into

the ocean. 76% of Florida’s population resides in

coastal counties that generate 79% of the state’s

total annual economy (Kildow, 2008). These

counties represent a built-environment and infrastructure whose replacement value in 2010 is

$2.0 trillion and which by 2030 is estimated to

be $3.0 trillion (Climate Works Foundation,

2009).*

Coastal regions are especially vulnerable to the

storm surges and waves that hurricanes generate.

These will be exacerbated by sea-level rise. In

Florida, the impacts of increased storm surge will

occur long before there are effects from static sealevel rise (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009).

Most of the coastal infrastructure was designed

and built using criteria based on historical data

for local mean sea level and flooding referencing

National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929,

which took into account neither current nor future

sea level (Florida Climate Action Team, 2008).

WHAT IS PROBABLE:

Sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice

as large as projected by IPCC, 2007, and this factor increases the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure

in Florida by several-fold (Allison et al., 2009;

Rahmstorf, 2010).

Coastal communities now vulnerable to flooding are

likely to flood more frequently, whereas other communities not currently subjected to coastal flooding

are likely to be at gradually increasing risk of flooding as sea level rises. Consequently, the risk of flood

damage to coastal infrastructure is likely to increase

in parallel with sea-level rise (U.S. Global Change

Research Program, 2009).

Infrastructure such as port facilities, marinas, piers,

and others that must be located at or near the waterInfrastructure vulnerability to storm-surge damage

was observed in Florida during the 2004 and

2005 hurricane seasons (Florida Division of Emergency Management, 2007).

Much of the current infrastructure of coastal

Florida will need to be replaced or improved during ongoing sea-level rise. An opportunity exists

to relocate, harden, and adapt the infrastructure

to conditions in ways that avoid or mitigate the

potential impacts (U.S. Climate Change Program,

2008).

* U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis data and Enterprise

Florida data were used to estimate the “value” at risk represented by the built

environment in the region. The method used data on the built environment/number of housing units as a function of total population and used projections of

population in 2030, 2050, etc. to arrive at the estimated replacement value of

the built environment (in current dollars) at a given year in the future.

II

11

line are very likely to be at gradually increasing risk

of damage from flooding, hydrodynamic pressure

from storm surge, and wave impact because of sealevel rise. This will likely require hardening or elevation through retrofit, relocation, or even abandonment

of some such facilities (R.A. Alvarez, personal communication).

Sea-level rise will stress this infrastructure (buildings,

roads, bridges, etc.) physically because salinity

changes may affect the structural integrity and/or

functionality of physical materials that compose the

features of roads, ports, airports, and rail systems.

This stress will increase infrastructure fatigue, reducing its effective functional life and requiring accelerated maintenance (Southeast Climate Change

Partnership, 2005; U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency, 2008).

Increased flooding will affect human-inhabited areas

and result in more roadway washouts (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2008).

Even roads farther inland may be threatened because road drainage systems become less effective

as sea levels rise. Many roads are built lower than

the surrounding land, so reduced drainage capacity

will further increase their susceptibility to flooding during rainstorms (Titus, 2002).

WHAT IS POSSIBLE:

The annual number of tropical cyclones in the

Atlantic basin may decrease (independently of the

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), whereas the