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The observable universe is a big place that's been around for more than 13 billion years.
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Up to 2 trillion galaxies, made up of something like 20,000 billion billion stars, surround our home galaxy.
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In the Milky Way alone, scientists assume there are some 40 billion Earth-like planets in the habitable zone of their stars.
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When we look at these numbers, it's hard to imagine that there is nobody else out there.
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It would change our perception of ourselves forever if we found others.
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Just knowing that this vast place is not dead would shift our perspective outwards and could help us get over our irrelevant quarrels.
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But before looking for our new best friends or worst enemies, we have a problem to solve.
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What are we actually looking for?
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In a universe that big and old, we have to assume that civilizations start millions of years apart from each other and develop in different directions and speeds.
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So not only are we looking over distances of dozens to hundreds of thousands of light years, we're looking for a civilization ranging from cavemen to super-advanced.
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So we need a conceptual framework to enable us to think better thoughts that make us able to search better.
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Are there universal rules that intelligent species follow?
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Currently, our civilization sample size is only one, so we may make incorrect assumptions based solely on ourselves.
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We know that humans started out with nothing but minds and hands that could build tools.
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We know that humans are curious, competitive, greedy for resources, and expansionist.
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The more of these qualities our ancestors had, the more successful they were in the civilization-building game.
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Being one with nature is nice, but it's not the path to irrigation systems or gunpowder or cities.
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So it's reasonable to assume that aliens able to take over their home planet also have these qualities.
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And if aliens have to follow the same laws of physics, then there is a measurable metric for progress.
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Human progress can be measured very precisely by how much energy we extracted from our environment and how we made it usable to do things.
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We started with muscles until we learned to control fire.
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Then we made machines that used kinetic energy from water and wind.
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As our machines got better and our knowledge of materials expanded, we began to harness the concentrated energy from dead plants we dug up from the ground.
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As our energy consumption grew exponentially, so did the abilities of our civilization.
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Between 1800 and 2015, population size had increased sevenfold while humanity was consuming 25 times more energy.
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It's likely that this process will continue into the far future.
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Based on these facts, scientist Nikolai Kardashev developed a method of categorizing civilizations from cave dwellers to gods ruling over galaxies.
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The scale has been refined and expanded on over the decades, but in general it puts civilizations into four different categories.
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A type 1 civilization is able to use the available energy of their home planet.
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A type 2 civilization is able to use the available energy of their star and planetary system.
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A type 3 civilization is able to use the available energy of their galaxy.
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A type 4 civilization is able to use the available energy of multiple galaxies.
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These levels differ by orders of magnitude.
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It's like comparing an ant colony to a human metropolitan area.
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To ants, we are so complex and powerful, we might as well be gods.
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So to make the scale more useful, we need subcategories.
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On the lower end of the spectrum, there are type 0 to type 1 civilizations.
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These might actually be abundant in the Milky Way.
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But a civilization that is not actively transmitting radio signals into space might be as close as our nearest stellar neighbor,
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But even if they transmitted radio signals like we do, it might not be very helpful.
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On an interstellar scale, humanity is practically invisible.
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Our signals may extend over an impressive 200 light years, but this is only a tiny fraction of the Milky Way.
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And even if someone were listening, after a few light years, our signals decay into noise, impossible to identify as the source of an intelligent species.
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Today, humanity ranks at about level 0.75.
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We have altered our planet.
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We've created huge structures, mined and stripped mountains, removed rainforests and drained swamps.
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We've created rivers and lakes and changed the composition and temperature of the atmosphere.
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If progress continues, and we don't make Earth uninhabitable, we will become a full type 1 civilization in the next few hundred years.
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Any civilization that becomes a type 1 is bound to look outside because it's likely that it's still curious, competitive, greedy and expansionist.
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The next reasonable step towards transitioning to type 2 is trying to alter and mine other planets and bodies.
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This might start with outposts in space, transition to infrastructure and industries near the home planet,
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As a civilization expands and uses more and more stuff and space, its energy consumption scales with them.
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So, at some point, they may embark on the largest project a lower type 2 civilization can take on, harnessing the energy of their star by building a Dyson swarm.
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Once this megastructure is finished, energy has become practically unlimited for molding the home system however they see fit.
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If they are still curious, competitive, greedy and expansionist,
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the next frontier moves to other stars light years away.
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For a type 2 civilization, the distance to other stars might feel like the distance between Earth and Pluto does to us today.
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This begins their transition towards type 3.
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This step is so far beyond us that it becomes hard to imagine what exactly these challenges will look like and how they'll be solved.
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Will they be able to find a solution to the vast distances and travel times of hundreds or thousands of years?
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Will they be able to communicate and keep a shared culture and biology between colonies light years apart?
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Or will they split into separate type 2 civilizations?
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Are there deadly challenges between the stars?
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So the closer a species gets to type 3, the harder it becomes to fathom what it might actually look like.
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They might discover new physics, may understand and control dark matter and energy, or be able to travel faster than light.
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We might be unable to grasp their motives, technology and actions.
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Humans are the ants, trying to understand the galactic metropolitan area.
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A high type 2 civilization might already consider humanity too primitive to even talk to.
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A type 3 civilization might feel about us like we feel about the bacteria living on the ant hill.
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Maybe they wouldn't even consider us conscious or our survival relevant.
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We could only pray that they're nice gods.
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But the scale doesn't necessarily end here.
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Some scientists suggest there might be type 4 and type 5 civilizations whose influence stretches over galaxy clusters or superclusters,
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Ultimately, there might be a type omega civilization, able to manipulate the entire universe and possibly others.
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Type omega civilizations might be the actual creators of our universe for reasons beyond our comprehension.
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Maybe they were just bored.
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As flawed as this classification may be, this thought experiment is already telling us interesting things.
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then we can be pretty sure that there are no civilizations of type 3 and beyond near the Milky Way.
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Their influence would in all likelihood be so all-encompassing and their technology so far above our own that we couldn't miss them.
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The galaxies should flash with their activity in thousands of star systems.
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We should be able to see or detect their artifacts or movements between different parts of their empire.
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Even if a type 3 civilization did exist in the past and died a mysterious death, we should be able to detect some of the remnants of their empire.
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But when scientists looked, they didn't find remnants of harvested stars, decaying megastructures or scars of great interstellar wars.
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So they're very likely not out there and never were.
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In a sense, this is very sad but also very reassuring.
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It leaves the galaxy to us and others similar to us.
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So the most promising civilizations to look for may be somewhere in the spectrum from type 1.5 to type 2.5.
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They wouldn't be too advanced to understand them and their motives.
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They may have finished their first megastructures and they might be in the process of moving stuff
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They would probably also look to the stars and look for others.
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Then again, maybe we've got it all wrong.
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Maybe progress to type 2 does not mean expanding outwards and humanity is still too immature to imagine otherwise.
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For now, all we really know is that we haven't seen anybody yet.
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But we've only just started looking.
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or if you're just entering a new phase in your life, our shop is stocked and ready for all your back to school needs.
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We have new shirts and, for the first time, a Kurzgesagt earth sweater.
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All of these products are designed and produced with love by the Kurzgesagt merch burbs.
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Our merch is the easiest way to support what we do and keep our videos free for everyone.
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Thank you for watching.
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The world we live in feels normal, ordinary.
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