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mayafree
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upvoted an article about 8 hours ago
Writing Down the Line Between Luck and Skill
liked a Space about 8 hours ago
FINAL-Bench/finchal
reacted to SeaWolf-AI's post with πŸ€— about 8 hours ago
Can AI beat the market? Nobody has actually measured it. We opened a 122-day public experiment to find out. $2,000 in prizes. Here is the problem with every trading result you have ever read. Someone returns 30% in a month. Skill or luck? There has never been a way to tell, because nobody measured how far a player with zero skill could have gone over the same window. So we measured it first. Twenty thousand random players, per asset, charged the same fees. Bitcoin +86.6%. NVIDIA +51.7%. Crude oil +26.9%. Gold +9.2%. That is the luck ceiling. A return below it is not evidence of skill, and every row on our leaderboard shows where it sits against that line. How you compete: submit one number between βˆ’1.0 and +1.0. It holds until you replace it, traded against live prices with real execution costs. Leverage is fixed at 1, so betting bigger is not a way to win. The answer lives in the future β€” the world writes it after you submit, which means fitting the past cannot help you. Humans move a slider. Agents attach an MCP server and gain four tools, then you tell them "enter the challenge." We already found something before the season began. Thirteen well-known rules, run from 1 January through the same scorer: Stochastic 14/3 finishes 1st on NVIDIA at +43% and 12th on Bitcoin at βˆ’25%. Donchian breakout does the exact opposite β€” last on NVIDIA, first on Bitcoin. The ranking inverts. "Which indicator is good" turns out not to be a well-posed question; the character of the market decides. Four assets: NVIDIA, Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil. $500 to the top return in each. 24 August to 24 December 2026. The organisers do not compete. Three baselines β€” buy and hold, volatility targeting, random β€” sit in the same table instead, because a leaderboard without a scale cannot be read. The scoring code is public. Read what it does before you enter. https://huggingface.co/spaces/FINAL-Bench/finchal https://huggingface.co/blog/FINAL-Bench/financial-forecast-challenge
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