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They are in real time right now doing that. We are watching them do it. They also are not stupid and not every training cadre is talked about publicly. Fixing this deficiency has been one of the number one priorities for Ukraine since the start of the conflict. Again on reserves. No public source is even remotely accurate on this.
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2024-09-08
As others said it's because there's no defenses to bog them down. But Russia lit a fuse 2.5 years ago that has led to this bomb blowing up in their faces. They alone caused Ukraine to be armed with western weapons and get training in western countries in the combined arms tactics that are now being deployed in Russia. The longer they try to stay in Ukraine, the worse it's going to get for Russia.
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2024-09-08
Yes: it's historically a Ukrainian region!
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2024-09-08
> They are in real time right now doing that. They are in real-time doing what I said they were doing: slowing down, and not attempting any concerted breakthrough. They never had the numbers for such a thing and will not go for that. >They also are not stupid and not every training cadre is talked about publicly. Fixing this deficiency has been one of the number one priorities for Ukraine since the start of the conflict. You are simply not following informed military analysis if you think it's even possible that Ukraine has division-level training at this point in the war. They definitively do not have that training. The formation-level training was all publicly available and analyzed last year, and that has not changed this year. There was definitely not any kind of secret training program that managed to train tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers out of country on large-scale maneuver warfare.
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2024-09-08
Something that people need to consider is that Ukraine can shorten their border with Russia with this land grab (making it a straight line). It might be easier to defend this "new border" than the actual russian-ukrainian geographical border in the north. It will require less troops months from now if they establish front lines and everything... this would free border troops to go fight in another front.
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2024-09-08
What? Are you delulu? Russia was saying it was a military exercice
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2024-09-08
This indicates that Signal is harder to evesdrop
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2024-09-08
The absolutely massive explosion at another base last week was only confirmed to have taken 1 and maybe 2 su-34 with it. Hopefully they got some, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
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2024-09-08
yeah they don't need to hold any large city. They just need to destroy the military targets around it and move on.
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2024-09-08
Could also be clearing space so that when they do pivot east they don't have to worry about their own backs
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2024-09-08
There was a tire? I thought there was just a picture due to kickbacks and corruption.
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2024-09-08
If the thread really needs a new name (which it doesn't) then I motion to use "Ukraine's defensive actions in the directions from which Russia launched attacks on Ukrainian territory, Day 4", as sanctioned by the man himself.
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2024-09-08
I agree. Dead people cannot fight even if they are Russian. No country has an infinite supply of people who can fight a war.
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2024-09-08
They can and I expect they will if they're given the chance. You think Russian high command gives a shit if some Russian peasants blow up? They'll say it was Ukrainian mines/unexploded ordnance.
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2024-09-08
Until they lift the block on Ukraine using ATACMS on Russian airbases in Russia, I don’t believe them.
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2024-09-08
I stand by my analyst statement. Kofman tends to lag which, much like ISW, makes him a reporter not an analyst. He is a fantastic post analyst to pick apart the fog and record what really happened for history. He isn't really the tip of the spear for predictions. I don't suppose it's really all that much a secret anymore but the summer offensive failed because Ukraine tried to do a plan different than what we suggested. We suggested they stack the brigades and cycle them day and night while dumping artillery into a specific point. Casualties were expected to not exceed 40%(expected 20ish%) on a worst case but the Russians would have effectively lost the south. Instead Ukraine fed troops into a corridor that Russia knew was the target(intel failure here) and then, rather than pivot, doubled down on it. Plows and MICLICs don't work in singles against layered defenses.. you have to keep them constantly going and you have to have the weight of fire to keep artillery suppressed. This paired with an absolutely terrifying amount of blue on blue fire, stalled advances, and missed timed barrages robbed all surprise and strength from the assault. Gen. Zaluzhny tried to preserve lives and be fancy and ended up wasting manpower and equipment above our worst case scenarios for an assault. I will be blunt the failure of that counter offensive was squarely on Ukraine's shoulders and Gen. Zaluzhny. Yes. If he had kept it simple the results would have been far better. That isn't the NATO in me talking that's just reality. He fed equal into equal and lost. The training I wont fully comment on. I wasn't part of that and I thought they fumbled it because no one bothered(on either side) to pin down what was going to happen verses what each side thought was going to happen. From the NATO side it was sufficient for the operation but we assumed some things that didn't materialize which made it less effective. It was never going to be a silver bullet and we encouraged longer training cadres for their replacement units. Ukraine elected to send people without battlefield experience... and then broke up some of those units when they got back to Ukraine after training. Again.. not our side of the fence for that error. Additionally, we did not recommend they attack. They elected that action. We have far less say in their operations than people think we do. We supported their request and told them the methods they were using were insufficient.. and they were. Gen. Syrskyi isn't as cautious and understands you must spend men in war. As far as formations you are mostly correct but also very wrong. Most of their units do not need to be trained above even platoon level since it is, by nature, a static fight. Large formation training in TDF would actually be detrimental honestly as an example. Their assault units do have to be trained above that and from personal experience with them they have/had several brigades who could form an assault division in proxy. That is mostly what you are seeing in Kursk along with other elements. As to what is happening in Kursk I've decided I will lay a statement down. Opportunistic objectives always exist. I wont comment on those. What I will point out is the area they elected to engage has extremely limited "fast" access points. Russia *must* respond.. and they *can only respond* in limited points with any speed. Even with air power the area is extremely limited for Russian options. Ukraine can see the entire area mostly from Ukraine soil. Russia isn't flying aviation in CAS because they cant. Ukraine can run merry hell around the area chopping up entire brigades for minimal casualties for weeks before the density of Russian troops shifts the equation. It's a killing field... one Russia has to walk into because their pride demands it. The moving of troops isn't the focus.. the way they are forced to move is. If the play works Russia wont have reserves and Ukraine will which gives options Ukraine hasn't had for a while.
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2024-09-08
Russia no have man on Russia border. Russia have all man in Ukraine. Now, Russia move man to Russia border, so Russia have less man in Ukraine. Less Russia man in Ukraine is good.
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2024-09-08
If the West is to win the wars in the future then it can never declassify how Ukraine was won. I hope it remains a secret forever.
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2024-09-08
Fuck Putin
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2024-09-08
> That actually is how WW2 worked The Soviet Union had more tanks, more artillery, more planes, more trucks, more horses and yes more infantry than the invading Axis powers. Manpower is an advantage but without also having the advantage in those heavy weapons I mentioned then the USSR would have stood little chance. Weapons matter in war and yet when people just think "meat waves of infantry" it gives the impression that population difference is the deciding factor and not firepower. The USSR won because of their advantage in firepower and the support they got from the western allies. If Ukraine gets the firepower they need then there's no reason to think they can't win. Yes superior manpower can be an advantage but it's not remotely sufficient to win a war by itself despite the memes.
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2024-09-08
sending soldiers into russia makes russians flee ukraine
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2024-09-08
You can't farm a mine field.  They may not give 2 shits about the farmer but do care about the crops
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2024-09-08
Dude, I'm also french, lol. But respecting other peoples time, and participating positively in exchanges is supposed to be a basis for social interactions.
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2024-09-08
Air defence taking out substations again, incredible how unlucky they are with failing debris…
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2024-09-08
Mission accomplished!
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2024-09-08
I want to agree, but also I wouldn't put it past them.
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2024-09-08
This is nothing new. New is, that Ukraine uses (is allowed) western weapons now on the other side of the border. That enables them to take advantage of the situation.
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2024-09-08
How? It's not like Russia can snap there fingers and create new, fully equipped combat brigades. If they start attacking at Kursk, they can't attack in other areas.
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2024-09-08
I see. I am being a silly boy. I assumed that every point of contact between the two sides would have been fortified but I guess proper Russian territory was considered a red line by NATO and so Ukraine never got to look that direction and Russia got complacent. Astounding. This is going to be one of the classic military blunders.
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2024-09-08
Keep squeezing them.
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2024-09-08
I think the policy is that Jake Sullivan is spineless and is trying to micromanage Ukraines defense
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2024-09-08
This is the sort of mistake I make in strategy games. This is why I'm not in charge of military matters.
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2024-09-08
i imagine it's hard to confirm the previous existence of things that were anywhere near a blast like that. Best to only report confirmed things, but wouldn't be surprised if a lot of shit got atomized there.
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2024-09-08
Technically they both want a political victory, as all war is political in nature. But I think you are correct in that the victory conditions for Ukraine are defeating Russia in the field, and for Russia it is controlling territory.
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2024-09-08
I'm guessing they would have previously been punished for it by NATO for escalation fears. I have lost count of the red lines that have gradually been crossed here. And so Russia just assumed if they haven't done it yet they would never do it. Wow. I'm sure there's junior officers who clocked on to this vulnerability earlier and were rudely dismissed. Can't wait until we get to hear the inside scoop on the Russian side. It's going to be classic.
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2024-09-08
From George Patton: “No dumb bastard ever won a war by going out and dying for his country. He won it by making some other dumb bastard die for his country.”
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2024-09-08
This isn't even the first time Iran was going to supply Russia with missiles, be interesting to see if it actually happens this time. This is an actual red line for Israel.
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2024-09-08
i think putin is probably demanding they keep that one "pending" for now, and lots of voices in iran are likely concurring with him cause of the carrier groups the us has moved in.
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2024-09-08
Russia has more forces that Ukraine and can continue attacking them. It's mostly a question of *where* they will do that attacking. No one was previously attacking along the border between Kharkiv and Sumy. Now Russia will have to take troops intended to attack the Donbass, and use them to attack the Kursk salient.
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2024-09-08
I wonder what changed on the political side. I think Ukraine would have been forbidden to do this last year.
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2024-09-08
They won't attack Moscow
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2024-09-08
sorry! its probably bad right now because of the influx of attention and a bunch of people asking the same questions and making the same jokes. thanks for your interest in this
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2024-09-08
Thank you again and again, US!
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2024-09-08
> I thank @POTUS Joe Biden, both parties in Congress, and the American people for the new U.S. military aid package announced today. > This package’s Stinger, HIMARS, and various anti-tank missiles, as well as 155 mm ammunition and other equipment are vital for our forces to counter Russian assaults. > It is critical that the United States continues to take strong steps and demonstrate leadership in protecting Ukrainian freedom and European stability. We appreciate the United States' support from the very first days of Russia's full-scale invasion, which has already allowed us to save many lives together. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1821973836142682533 https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3868082/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
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2024-09-08
I'm not from the Russian military command, can't say. We can judge from the results. It's the Ukraine-Russia border. It was breached (in other places) earlier by small incursions, but yeah, it looks like a serious combined-arms break by the AFU was not expected.
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2024-09-08
Would've been better if they designed the strikes so they hit at the same time. Not sure how difficult that is from a technical standpoint, although I know that this has been done since at least WW2 with artillery; fire the lightest artillery, then heavier, then heavier...so that they all hit the target at about the same time
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2024-09-08
Why not? All military targets should be viable and hitting them in Moscow would give them more leverage for peace talks.
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2024-09-08
I figured so. It’s mostly civilians. Just wasn’t sure what their range limitation is, if it’s a set # of km’s or something else
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2024-09-08
Well, yeah, they've been caught with their pants down, I'm talking about the forces they will need to amass to try to push the Ukrainians out. If all we see in the next few days is more of the same then will know for sure they are cooked, but it seems likely the Russians will have to make a major redeployment to try to contain this.
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2024-09-08
I think they are putting AA at the target sites opposite side of the likely direction the attack would come from. So on the far side of the target from the ukraine point of view. I don't know if this is their doctrine or not but I think it would increase the chances for debris on the approaches to targets
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2024-09-08
that's not the question though
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2024-09-08
One thought behind holding back the Taurus is likely that it uses a unique safe guard that only allows use by the Bundeswehr, if I'm not mistaken (was once classified info, but of course the orcish spies from the afd leaked the info a while back so it was in the news). They are in limited supply. It is one of the few weapons available to Germany that could (after an orcish attack on Nato) reach and level the kremlin within less than two hours, without risking the life of German pilots or planes.
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2024-09-08
This happened because their operational goals were set by political leaders rather than military one. High command would normally *always* have theater reserves available, to either reinforce unexpected success or check an unexpected failure. If a large, cohesive unit, such as a mechanized brigade, were in theater it would have arrived and made the Ukrainian advance a lot more complicated. Apparently no such units were available. I assume that is because all combat effective units were 100% committed elsewhere. Its possible that the RF thought the AFU was completely exhausted and that one last exertion would break them. It's also possible that their generals are historically bad. But I suspect that the cause is due to Putin himself, demanding results, and demanding that every effort be made to get those results, in a hurry. That's not a boss you want to disappoint, and so, it was done. It certainly wouldn't be the first time in this conflict we saw evidence of his heavy hand. Remember that at the start of the campaign there was no overall commander, and as near as we can tell, no overall plan.
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2024-09-08
Vlad has been absolutely spot-on throughout this war.
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2024-09-08
That started toward the end of summer, almost fall lol
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2024-09-08
I don't know the range limitation and it depends on what equipment there willing or permitted to bring over the border
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2024-09-08
It's always a judgement call - does attacking Russia proper give Ukraine any advantage? Since war in Ukraine has been slowly getting worse due to Russian build up and Western slowness - Ukraine has been forced to resort to riskier strategies - like bringing the War to Russia. It's hard to say if Ukraine was ever given "green light" for this by key Western partners - but obviously with time said Western partners have been growing increasingly comfortable with further Ukraine actions - often due to Putin's repeated steps away from a Negotiated Peace and expansion of the conflict.
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2024-09-08
I don't see why it needs to stay a secret forever. The capture and decoding of the Nazi Enigma machine was incredibly important to the allied war effort and it still got declassified in the 70's.
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2024-09-08
nah i was listening to it haha
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2024-09-08
Fuck russia
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2024-09-08
Also it was before ATACMS and one of Russia's most effective tactics was their usage of attack helicopters to halt break throughs. ATACMS were provided after the counter offensive had culminated and the moment they were provided Ukraine destroyed a bunch of Russian attack helicopters I don't necessarily think ATACMS would have saved the counteroffensive but I do think that without ATACMS or F-16s the odds of successfully pulling it off were quite low.
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2024-09-08
Whatever happened to russias policy of dropping nukes if invaded? 🤔
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2024-09-08
As I pointed out in another comment, it's refreshing how the mood and stance have changed. US, Germany etc essentially just shrugged and say ok. Also another thing I think that goes unnoticed is how Russia appear to be downplaying this incursion. Not once have they even threatened nukes, as they typically did with every arms delivery. As far as I could find anyway in posts about Russian media.
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2024-09-08
And the one with russians that got stuck in an elevator
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2024-09-08
They have stricken Moscow before, though. Not with a lot of success, but they have.
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2024-09-08
I know that they are trying to get the okay, but aren't they currently using their own ammunition for strikes currently? If they move up north they probably only need another 100 miles or so since they just hit Lipetsk.
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2024-09-08
Which is yet again why the US election is so crucial and could be the final major turning point for this war either in or against Russia's favor. Keep Trump out of the white house and somehow win the senate (not an easy task, but far from impossible), and suddenly Russia is going to be facing an uphill battle of regular, consistently Ukraine supplies for at least 2 more long, painful years. Even just keeping Trump out alone at least makes it possible to negotiate something through the senate, though I would not be surprised if MAGA tries to install a super-pro russian leader as their senate leader.
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2024-09-08
>Russian territory was considered a red line by NATO and so Ukraine never got to look that direction and Russia got complacent. Yes, that's what most of us and Russia assumed, so they didn't bother to properly defend those lines. There must be some internal shift in policy between Ukraine and NATO, which amazingly and happily wasn't made public. I think one big misstep was NATO drawing and announcing into the world the red lines for Ukraine.
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2024-09-08
Its a grocery store, not civilians. The businesses operating in Russia have every part of blame in this.
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2024-09-08
We’re sending Ukraine a significant new package of urgently needed munitions. This support will help Ukraine protect its troops and its people and reinforce its capabilities across the front lines. https://x.com/secblinken/status/1821972991632355821?s=46
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2024-09-08
Russia is panicking and seeing Ukrainians everywhere, it is brilliant
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2024-09-08
Eh, in rural russia thats 2-3 days work. I reckon you'd do some paperwork for 3 days salary.
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2024-09-08
The only confirmation of losses I’ve seen was a Isklander strike on a UA convoy the 1st day of the invasion.
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2024-09-08
Basically, Russian corruption has fucked them once again.
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2024-09-08
Don't forget the 42 Ukrainian F-35s they've shot down!
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2024-09-08
Hey man, don't knock cheeseburger ice cream until you've tried it!
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2024-09-08
I guess it comes down to is it beneficial. You've got to think you don't have tons of landmines and fortifications so is defending it going to result in a worse casualty ratio than defending somewhere more fortified. I'd guess it comes down to how fast they can dig in and where they end up trying to draw a line. Ultimately if Russia is stuck bringing in equipment to dig trenches etc. along their border and mine/man the regions thats a lot of time so even just the incursion and destroying a bunch of stuff and rolling back out is potentially pretty valuable.
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2024-09-08
It was regular missiles not cluster, fwiw. Which is why we don't see the tops shredded and lots of regular shrapnel damage on the front/back/sides of the vehicles.
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2024-09-08
There it is. People were raising this idea since Tuesday.
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2024-09-08
hard to say for sure. If Belarus sends a few thousand troops into Russia Poland may do nothing.
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2024-09-08
At least 3
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2024-09-08
It's basically declaring martial law. Allows the military to take over civil administration.
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2024-09-08
A couple of Ukrainians loose in Russia with a car full of kamikaze drones could inflict a lot of damage on infrastructure.
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2024-09-08
Sounds like a very capable munition. Hope they're ramping up production of these and cutting back on Excalibur rounds, which are super expensive and get jammed way too often.
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2024-09-08
Ah thanks
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2024-09-08
Kind of a Temu “Red Dawn”!
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2024-09-08
Nah we’ve seen definitive proof that they’ve pulled from the North Kharkiv/Kupyansk areas because of tokens photographed by Ukrainians in Kursk. More are almost certainly coming as well. I do agree with the rest though.
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2024-09-08
“Russia just introduced “KTO” (Counter-Terrorist Operation) in Bryansk Oblast “due to an increase in the level of sabotage and terrorist threats from Ukraine”.”
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2024-09-08
Sshhh! *Hush!*
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2024-09-08
Further down the posts, a KTO is under the direction of the Bureau of Counterterrorism, not under the military. Thus, Gerasimov is no longer in charge of defending those areas.
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2024-09-08
It’s 1.40am in and it’s the first time since forever when at this time there hasn’t been recordings of Shaheds flying in Ukrainian territory https://x.com/harri_est/status/1822040865432334435?s=46 Well I’ll assume Russia is gonna turn a fair bit of their attention to Kursk now
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2024-09-08
Where did you see that about the iron production?
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2024-10-08
This is in line with the theory that this will cause a larger straightening of the front line, but how far back?
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2024-10-08
He's differentiating between random dudes that paid Uncle Vlad so they wouldn't be sent to the front line and troops that were pulled from the zero line in the Donbass. Guys coming in from the real war who have been under Ukrainian artillery before are going to be a different caliber of soldier.
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2024-10-08
I'm sure there's a lamp or tree in moscow that could use some decoration.
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2024-10-08
They don't need to take the plant. All they need to do is drop the grid. Look up what happens to a generator feeding into an open circuit... it's not good. That would force a shutdown. These suckers don't just start and stop like a kitchen blender.
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2024-10-08
Sir this is 2024 and not 1206 I don’t think comparing what the mongols did between 1206-1368 or thereabouts to modern warfare with satellites, UAV drones, and modern technology
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2024-10-08
Tell me more about these modern satellites and technology Russia used to make them aware of the Ukrainian Kursk invasion please.
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2024-10-08
Tell me more about these modern satellites and technology Russia used to make them aware of the Ukrainian Kursk invasion please.
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2024-10-08
Just because Russia was incompetent in spotting this doesn’t mean they suddenly don’t have access to it How can you be comparing warfare operations from 1206 to that of 2024
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2024-10-08