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The issue is the composition of the population. | [
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In 1950, the median age was 18. | [
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In 2023, it's 45. | [
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In 2100, it will be 59. | [
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And South Korea is far from alone. | [
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China may be seeing the steepest population reversal in history, unstoppable at this point. | [
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Rapid industrialization, urbanization and rising incomes meant that the Chinese started to prefer smaller families. | [
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That, plus the introduction of the one-child policy, which aimed to slow population growth, means that China has had a low fertility rate for decades. | [
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With a fertility rate of 1.16 births per woman, within four generations, 100 young Chinese will turn into 20. | [
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China's fertility rates are now one of the lowest in East Asia, lower than even Japan's. | [
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In comparison, Europe's depopulation is much slower, despite low fertility, since unlike Asia, most states have had a steady flow of immigrants. | [
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The impact is complex, as a good chunk of immigrants come from other low fertility rate areas. | [
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The number of immigrant women who do have a lot of children is not yet high enough to make a big dent, | [
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and fertility rates of immigrants tend to adjust to the native population within two to three generations. | [
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In Eastern Europe, the decline has sped up even more because many young people have emigrated to stronger economies, | [
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Latin America fell below replacement in 2015. | [
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In the US, immigration is the only thing keeping the population growing substantially. | [
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There are still places where fertility rates have not fallen below replacement yet. | [
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In much of the Middle East, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility is still high, | [
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But recently, the UN has reduced its forecast for Africa's population drastically. | [
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Similar trends are being noted across the continent. | [
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As Africa develops, fertility rates are shrinking much faster than anticipated. | [
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It's becoming more likely that East Asia's story will repeat itself. | [
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By the end of the century, most places in Africa may be below replacement too. | [
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Why is all of this a big deal? | [
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For a functioning society, you need enough people to sustain the prime of their lives. | [
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Young and middle-aged people do most of the work. | [
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But the majority of health care costs are generated by seniors. | [
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Even in the best case, this will mean people having to work way longer, exploding health care costs and poverty, | [
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Technology might soften the blow, but can't compensate entirely. | [
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We can see this happening already. | [
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11 out of 31 provinces in China are running deficits for their pension funds. | [
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They got old before they got rich, and now they can't really catch up anymore. | [
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China's working-age population is predicted to fall by 20%, or 200 million people by 2050, as much as today's entire working-age population of the US. | [
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once people and their income disappear, the resources necessary to sustain infrastructure disappear too. | [
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You can see it in many depopulated towns and cities in East Germany that suffered sharp population decline after German reunification. | [
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You can tour the countryside to see dying towns. | [
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Population decline doesn't lead to prosperity. | [
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It's people's ideas and work that create our prosperity, not the mere availability of resources. | [
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Another danger for aging societies is that elected governments could decide to mostly represent the interests and fears of their elderly populations, | [
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That's not a society that can handle issues like climate change, which need massive investment and fresh ideas, something the world is already having a hard time with. | [
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Many people think that having fewer humans on Earth is actually a good thing because our societies are too unsustainable, | [
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we're using up too many resources, and because of climate change. | [
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The problem is that even if you want fewer humans, this process is very likely too slow to have a positive impact on the environment. | [
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The world population is going to grow for at least 60 more years before it may shrink again. | [
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By then, we have to solve climate change. | [
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Likewise, any other upsides a lower population might have will most likely not materialize themselves this century. | [
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So, just like in poor people, the easiest solution seems to be immigration, but the fertility of immigrants adjusts to local levels within three generations. | [
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The only way would be to keep poor countries poor so that the young and motivated migrate to developed countries looking for opportunity and a better life. | [
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especially when cultures with very different sets of values meet, often leading to a backlash that slows immigration down again. | [
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It's easy to be frustrated at this, but ignoring this will only divide societies, empower demagogues, and increase xenophobia. | [
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Especially countries like the US, an immigrant nation built on the idea of personal freedom and opportunity through hard work, will benefit the most. | [
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Countries like this will have a clear advantage this century, especially if they can attract the world's brightest and most ambitious. | [
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This topic is way too big, affects societies as diverse as literally all of humanity. | [
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So, please take this part with a gigantic grain of salt. | [
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Obviously, we're looking at this from our Central European perspective. | [
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One way to look at falling birth rates is as a side effect of the world being less bad than it was. | [
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Especially women are freer, more educated, and wealthier than in the past. | [
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The mean number of kids women in Europe want is around 2.3, much more than they're actually having. | [
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While we gained a lot of freedoms in the last century, across continents and economic systems, that came at a cost. | [
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We have only one life to explore, be free, travel, have fun, accomplish something and try to be happy. | [
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Nobody owes their country babies. | [
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But here are a few options to at least make the lives of parents much easier. | [
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The next time you sit next to a crying baby, don't be a jerk about it. | [
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Kids are hard. | [
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In the end, humanity will not die out because we're having fewer babies. | [
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The age and composition of our societies changes quickly, and we need to deal with that sooner rather than later. | [
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But in the end, of all the incredibly hard challenges we've faced before, why would this be the one we can't solve? | [
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Getting to the bottom of the population crash starts with analyzing and interpreting massive amounts of data. | [
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